The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Shem wrote: 17 Apr 2021, 19:07
D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Apr 2021, 14:19
Shem wrote: 17 Apr 2021, 13:08 The extension of the Voting Rights Act that John Roberts totally didn't directly contravene his own judicial philosophy to kill was done under a Republican President.
So that would be the case of the Republican administration supporting the status quo, not pushing the envelope, right?
I suppose one can argue that, though the fact that the W Bush Administration actively chose to pursue the extension as part of an attempt to win minority votes makes it something of a hard sell, at least in my opinion.
That's a reasonable counterpoint. W had a lot of "greatness thrust upon him" that he clearly didn't want. He made or allowed to be made many bad decisions after 9/11 but there's every reason to believe his administration would have been very different but for that. (Well, and but for Cheney, too.)
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JasonL
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by JasonL »

I'll clarify that what I think here is that a move in a direction may be bad but I don't see the conclusion that the obvious end here what the article suggests. I try to imagine for example if the bills had simply been to propose voter ID in line with the median strategies of western democracies. That exact same piece operates the exact same way because the direction is toward harder to vote. There's to me a pretty wide range of ok there.
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Shem
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Shem »

JasonL wrote: 19 Apr 2021, 10:08I try to imagine for example if the bills had simply been to propose voter ID in line with the median strategies of western democracies.
Laws. The stuff he describes has either already been passed into law, or is coming up in states where unified control means they probably will pass more or less exactly as proposed, unless the heat from outside gets too high. He's not making some slippery slope argument; he's pointing to stuff that's currently happening and taking about how catastrophic that thing that will actually happen is once the vote is held.

Am I missing something? Because right now, this feels like someone responding to an argument about a specific breaking and entering case with "but there are plenty of reasons why going into someone's house without permission would be acceptable!" Which, factually actuate, but unless you can show how these specific cases he's talking about fit that, it's a non-sequitur.
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JasonL
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by JasonL »

Are you talking about GA laws mentioned casually or Arizona HB2720 which is the only law I see mentioned explicitly? The GA laws are mostly meh but is a mixed bag. Early voting isn't a fundamental right of any sort in most nations of the democratic world. Requiring ID markers on such votes and in person are the norm. I don't like it but kinda no it isn't the worst thing that ever happened on earth nor the presage of a strategy to win without winning.
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Shem
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Shem »

JasonL wrote: 19 Apr 2021, 12:44 Are you talking about GA laws mentioned casually or Arizona HB2720 which is the only law I see mentioned explicitly? The GA laws are mostly meh but is a mixed bag. Early voting isn't a fundamental right of any sort in most nations of the democratic world. Requiring ID markers on such votes and in person are the norm. I don't like it but kinda no it isn't the worst thing that ever happened on earth nor the presage of a strategy to win without winning.
The Georgia law (along with most of the other ones) makes it legal for the state legislature to replace the local elections board at any time, for any reason. Meaning, "legislature doesn't like the results in blue county, so they fire the board and replace with people who won't certify the results, thereby disenfranchising those people in that county" becomes a thing. Remember, the only thing that kept this exact event from happening in Detroit was one guy who decided to do his job. This is noted in the article we're talking about, which is why the focus on voter ID laws as if that's all we're talking about here is difficult to understand.
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Jadagul
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Jadagul »

There's a lot of sloppy discourse about this stuff, honestly.

There are 2-3 different things going on right now:

1. making it harder on the margin to vote. This gets most of the oxygen.
1a. Looking at how many of the Covid voting changes we want to roll back. Honestly, it's pretty fair to say "we allowed this as an emergency measure, and the emergency is over now, so...
2. Making the infrastructure more vulnerable to future attempts to disregard the vote.

1a is, as I've said, fair enough. 1 is easiest to talk about and gets most of the discourse. And some of those plans are genuinely noxious (and some have been pulled; the Georgia law doesn't do nearly as much to inhibit Black voting as the original draft bill did!).

2 is the scariest, but also hard to talk about sensibly because any serious conversation has a tendency to feel like hyperventilating. But pushing the system from like 2% chance of disaster to 8% chance of disaster is really bad even if it probably won't amount to anything.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by lunchstealer »

Yeah the intent behind the difficult-at-the-margins stuff is the problem, in that it is clearly and baldfacedly aimed not at a secure, honest tabulation of every eligible voter's preference in the fairest way possible, but a method to put the thumb on the scales for the 'right' voters a la Jim Crow Boogaloo.

But the shameless way that the GOP has started targeting the people who did their job and certified the votes when all the Lin Wood shit was shown to be spurious, unsubstantial, or incompetently fraudulent is the really scary stuff. The system worked in 2020 because honest people did their job honestly, and the GOP is working to stop that from happening again.

Even if other countries implement some of the ideas the GOP is putting forward as a matter of routine, the rather obvious ulterior motives of the modern GOP are enough that they need to get slapped down until they start behaving in good faith on the subject. I have no hope of that happening any time in the coming decade or so.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by thoreau »

I have two contradictory opinions on voter ID, early voting, etc.

Plenty of liberal democracies have voter ID requirements, and I really, honestly would not mind more uniform national standards for election processes, partly because I think it would reduce the stakes. Right now you see Red legislatures tinkering one way and Blue legislatures tinkering another and the stakes depend on whether the state has close contests or not. If a particular rule got slightly looser or stricter, but changed in the same way everywhere, it feels more fair. If it were implemented on a reasonable timeline, with a concerted effort to help everyone who needs ID obtain it, I honestly would not object.

At the same time, like I said, there's nothing even-handed or common-sensical about how so much of this stuff plays out. Whatever the baseline rules are or ought to be, you see the changes pushed by people seeking craven advantages that go against the whole spirit of universal franchise and liberal democracy. So what if GA still allows more time for early voting than some other state? They only made the change because they saw what was happening and sought to gain an advantage by sculpting the electorate rather than appealing to it. That's just fundamentally wrong. If we got a more-or-less uniform interval of early voting, with due exceptions for unique local circumstances, well, great. OTOH, if the early voting rules aren't changed in states where the legislature likes the way the people are voting, but are changed in the states where the legislature doesn't like the outcome, well, that's just a fundamental assault on the nature of liberal democracy.

So I can support a pretty wide range of possible rules if implemented in a uniform manner designed to ensure common rules rather than local advantage. I cannot support a requirement designed by a legislature that's more interested in excluding voters than appealing to voters.

And when it comes to giving the legislature more power over the election officials, again, that's a red flag. Election processes, whatever they might be, should be decided on well in advance, some thoroughly boring and tepidly non-partisan people should be put in charge, they should be subject to significant but banal oversight, and they shouldn't be ousted outside the normal turnover cycle unless there's reason to suspect foul play.
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Shem
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Shem »

The issue is never just "people need an ID to vote." Because that's never where it stops. It's "people need an ID, and also, we're going to close the DMVs where mostly Black people live so they have to travel 2 hours to get one." Or "people need an ID, and your Tribal ID card, which is issued by the Federal government only to Tribal members who are, definitionally, citizens, will not suffice." (Both of those are things that happened, BTW, so it's not theoretical). And, you can choose argue with that as if it's a good-faith attempt to prevent voter fraud, but I can choose to view you as a massive sucker for doing it.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Highway »

Yeah, the ID requirement as it's used in the US is a pretext. Like Shem said it's "... and we'll close the DMV near you." and also "... and we've got these new onerous requirements for birth certificates" and also "... and we've increased the price of the ID by 100% to cover additional costs."

And then it can be used for "I don't think this is really you. You can't vote." or "Sorry, this is the wrong kind of ID. You can't vote." It opens up a well-known suite of shenanigans that are used to deny 'the wrong people' the opportunity to vote.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

I forget what official document or service was involved, which is to say it many not have been registering to vote, but Texas is very big on requiring original Social Security cards. Not, mind you, a verifiable SSN but the card, itself. And the Social Security Administration has a strict limit on the number of duplicate originals -- an oxymoron if I ever heard one -- it will issue.

An alarming number of people not living in a southern border state honestly believe that hoards of illegal immigrants might actually show up at the polls or go to the trouble of securing and casting absentee ballots, which is about as likely as a serial rapist dropping off a DNA sample for the police. I haven't heard the claim that hoards of illegal immigrant transsexuals are invading women's bathrooms to oogle cis-women taking a dump, but it's only a matter of time.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by lunchstealer »

Highway wrote: 19 Apr 2021, 21:24 Yeah, the ID requirement as it's used in the US is a pretext. Like Shem said it's "... and we'll close the DMV near you." and also "... and we've got these new onerous requirements for birth certificates" and also "... and we've increased the price of the ID by 100% to cover additional costs."

And then it can be used for "I don't think this is really you. You can't vote." or "Sorry, this is the wrong kind of ID. You can't vote." It opens up a well-known suite of shenanigans that are used to deny 'the wrong people' the opportunity to vote.
Does anyone know if all those European nations that require ID have the history of voter intimidation and suppression that the US has had?
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by lunchstealer »

D.A. Ridgely wrote: 19 Apr 2021, 22:50 I forget what official document or service was involved, which is to say it many not have been registering to vote, but Texas is very big on requiring original Social Security cards. Not, mind you, a verifiable SSN but the card, itself. And the Social Security Administration has a strict limit on the number of duplicate originals -- an oxymoron if I ever heard one -- it will issue.

An alarming number of people not living in a southern border state honestly believe that hoards of illegal immigrants might actually show up at the polls or go to the trouble of securing and casting absentee ballots, which is about as likely as a serial rapist dropping off a DNA sample for the police. I haven't heard the claim that hoards of illegal immigrant transsexuals are invading women's bathrooms to oogle cis-women taking a dump, but it's only a matter of time.
I wouldn't be surprised if it were initial driver's license applications and DL transfers from states that don't have strict citizenship/green-card requirements.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Eric the .5b »

I submit that the next three years are going to involve the GOP trying to navigate the ice-pack of Trump fandom as it breaks up into the waters of Trump cringe.



In 2024, he'll still have die-hard fans going on about how he was wronged. But then, so will Al Franken. Neither of them is going to get back his office.

I suspect a pivot away from referencing and paying homage to Trump after the midterms. I'm just not sure how complete it might be. Whether Trump even speaks at the next convention, assuming he's not in prison, strikes me as a much more likely question than whether he's in the primaries.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Aresen »

Eric the .5b wrote: 01 May 2021, 07:22 I suspect a pivot away from referencing and paying homage to Trump after the midterms. I'm just not sure how complete it might be. Whether Trump even speaks at the next convention, assuming he's not in prison, strikes me as a much more likely question than whether he's in the primaries.
It depends whether the explicitly Trumpista candidates win big or crash-and-burn - particularly in the tipping-point districts - in 2022.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Jennifer »

That's what worries me -- even if "Trump" is finished, "Trumpism" might not be.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Good to see Trump's supporters taking the election results so well...

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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by lunchstealer »

Man, Cowboys fans really don't like Eagles fans.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by dhex »

There's an infowarrior rides subreddit that is chock full of this sort of nonsense

Eta there's also another one that covers woke rides which are equally expressive in their hatred of decent design and readability.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Kolohe »

D.A. Ridgely wrote: 03 May 2021, 20:17 Good to see Trump's supporters taking the election results so well...

Image
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