The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

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Aresen
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The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Aresen »

Eric the .5b wrote: 13 Apr 2021, 20:30 Can we at least start a new thread for the doom we're totally accurately predicting four years out?
As requested. A thread about whether Trump will return and dominate the 2024 election.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by thoreau »

Trump is lazy, and there are ambitious people with lean and hungry looks.

Then again, in 2016 some ambitious people with lean and hungry looks tried to keep him off the ticket...
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by thoreau »

If Donald the Orange returns in 2024, I'll have to come up with a sequel. He ate the polonium-laced burger at the end of my play, so I'll need to think of how to bring him back. Maybe the witches summon his shade. Or Prince Donny undertakes a quest for revenge at the behest of his father's ghost.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Aresen »

thoreau wrote: 13 Apr 2021, 23:04 If Donald the Orange returns in 2024, I'll have to come up with a sequel. He ate the polonium-laced burger at the end of my play, so I'll need to think of how to bring him back. Maybe the witches summon his shade. Or Prince Donny undertakes a quest for revenge at the behest of his father's ghost.
Zombie Donald would work.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

thoreau wrote: 13 Apr 2021, 23:04 If Donald the Orange returns in 2024, I'll have to come up with a sequel. He ate the polonium-laced burger at the end of my play, so I'll need to think of how to bring him back. Maybe the witches summon his shade. Or Prince Donny undertakes a quest for revenge at the behest of his father's ghost.
The Trump family is well suited to a King Lear adaptation.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by thoreau »

A scary analysis of how the Reds are likely to play in 2024.

https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/readi ... an-autopsy

January 6 was just the warmup.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by JasonL »

thoreau wrote: 14 Apr 2021, 03:10 A scary analysis of how the Reds are likely to play in 2024.

https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/readi ... an-autopsy

January 6 was just the warmup.
I find this overblown by a decent margin.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Aresen »

JasonL wrote: 14 Apr 2021, 08:25
thoreau wrote: 14 Apr 2021, 03:10 A scary analysis of how the Reds are likely to play in 2024.

https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/readi ... an-autopsy

January 6 was just the warmup.
I find this overblown by a decent margin.
I would have said the same a year ago about the events of November 3, 2020 to January 8, 2021.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Jennifer »

The right-wing news/op-ed media is mostly pushing the narrative that universal suffrage is bad -- not just for [non-white] immigrants, but even for "blue" people moving into red states. National Review , arguing that voting should be difficult to do, Tucker Carlson going on about the white replacement theory AND the evils of blue-ish people moving to red states ... the current GOP strategy is not to attract voters to its cause, but to accept that the majority of American voters don't like them, and thus try to get those voters disenfranchised. (And all this despite the Senate and Electoral College both being tilted in favor of rural [and largely conservative] voters.)

Though what really worris me about 2024 is not Trump, but someone who is Trumplike, and actually competent.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Eric the .5b »

Jennifer wrote: 15 Apr 2021, 11:36Though what really worris me about 2024 is not Trump, but someone who is Trumplike, and actually competent.
The question is whether we have such a person in the wings, or whether they're as mythical as that charismatic Blue in 2016 who could trounce Trump with their sound EC strategy.

Right now, it's not clear that Team Red has competent, charismatic figures, anymore. They had nobody in 2016 who could beat Trump, and ever since, everyone in the party has mewled and kowtowed to the guy. I'm not sure there's anyone with a lean and hungry look ready to go in that timeframe. Certainly nobody willing to challenge Trump.

If nobody's willing to challenge Trump and take a plausible leadership position, and then Trump keels over/goes to trial or even prison/decides he's never leaving Florida again? President Harris *shudder* or four more years of Biden in an absolute cakewalk.

If Trump waddles back up to the Red race next time around? I think it's easy to overestimate his continued freshness and appeal. Even the sort of non-Party fucks who willingly go to Mar-a-Lago are complaining that his speeches are getting stale and unexciting, full of whiny grievance with none of the old bold bullshit. The ones who started falling away from him at the end of his term aren't going back. The stolen-election meme is less a fervent belief for many than a signal and a put-on, a way of trying to handle the cognitive and social dissonance of buying into Trump with the massive evidence that he was an impressively shitty president who lost re-election. And even if someone actually believed the last election was stolen, what about that would make them confident in Trump for 2024?

(ETA: or, put another way, he's a loser.)

Contra the rest of this thread, I think real wilderness time is coming for the GOP. It's going to take time to get past a thick layer of anger and denial for them, but it's coming.
Last edited by Eric the .5b on 15 Apr 2021, 12:40, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by thoreau »

Eric the .5b wrote: 15 Apr 2021, 12:33
Contra the rest of this thread, I think real wilderness time is coming for the GOP. It's going to take time to get past a thick layer of anger and denial for them, but it's coming.
God I hope you're right. But the margins have been close for so long, and the structural advantages in many states are so significant.

But I hope you're right.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Jennifer »

Eric the .5b wrote: 15 Apr 2021, 12:33
Contra the rest of this thread, I think real wilderness time is coming for the GOP. It's going to take time to get past a thick layer of anger and denial for them, but it's coming.
Strictly speaking, in old-school democracy/democratic republic terms, the GOP is already in wilderness time, as measured by "ability to win the majority of voters." But between the EC, gerrymandering, and their new voter-suppression kick, they've been able to hold on to power despite this. They only end up in the wilderness if they're willing to behave in good faith and play by the rules, and they've already demonstrated, multiple times over, that they won't do this.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Eric the .5b »

thoreau wrote: 15 Apr 2021, 12:37But I hope you're right.
Just remember that we've had one (1) one-term loser actually make a comeback for the presidency, and Grover Cleveland was a very successful president and well-regarded guy who actually won the popular vote all three times.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Eric the .5b »

Jennifer wrote: 15 Apr 2021, 12:53Strictly speaking, in old-school democracy/democratic republic terms, the GOP is already in wilderness time, as measured by "ability to win the majority of voters.
It only counts once it sinks in.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Jennifer »

Eric the .5b wrote: 15 Apr 2021, 13:05
Jennifer wrote: 15 Apr 2021, 12:53Strictly speaking, in old-school democracy/democratic republic terms, the GOP is already in wilderness time, as measured by "ability to win the majority of voters.
It only counts once it sinks in.
FWIW, the attitude you have now, regarding the GOP's near-future prospects, is pretty much what I thought in 2012 after Romney lost (especially since, at the time, one of Romney's advisers had openly admitted that Romney's goal was to focus entirely on winning the overwhelming majority of white voters and pretty much ignore everyone else -- but that same adviser also admitted that due to American demographic changes -- IIRC that was when I first came across the statistic that in each succeeding presidential election, the percentage of the voting population that is white will drop by another three percent -- 2012 would be the last presidential election such a strategy would work. That all seemed to make perfect sense at the time --- but Romney and his adviser and I and everyone else who thought this severely underestimated how badly the Republicans in power would behave once they had it. (I mean, for all the many bad things about Bush II, there was little doubt he'd have stepped down peacefully had he lost in 2004, and even less doubt he'd hand the reins over to Obama in 2008. But given how much support Trump's bullshit stolen-election claims have among Republicans, including many officeholders, we can no longer take for granted that any Republican who loses will admit this.)

Also I seriously underestimated just how many Republicans are not merely "a bit bigoted" but outright white supremacists.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Shem »

JasonL wrote: 14 Apr 2021, 08:25
thoreau wrote: 14 Apr 2021, 03:10 A scary analysis of how the Reds are likely to play in 2024.

https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/readi ... an-autopsy

January 6 was just the warmup.
I find this overblown by a decent margin.
So, what are all the laws he lists being passed to eliminate all the guardrails that kept it from happening last time?
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

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The reason it hasn't sunk in is because the gerrymandered House has created a situation where there's a hard core of insane Q-Caucus Reps who keep the GOP balanced away from the actual center of the country. This is why passing the proposed elevon law that will, among other things require non-partisan drawing of district lines is so important. Until that's broken, we're just going to get more of the same.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by JasonL »

Broadly, there are a lot of steps between this is the set of law changes, this is what people want to happen ideally as a result, and this is what will actually happen. These are tweaks at margins. The presentation of this as a "three step process" acts like the first two conditions, which are really just "american politics" are somehow leading up to the third which is entirely different - it's misleading.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Shem »

JasonL wrote: 16 Apr 2021, 14:49The presentation of this as a "three step process" acts like the first two conditions, which are really just "american politics" are somehow leading up to the third which is entirely different - it's misleading.
I think you're misunderstanding the article. He doesn't present it as a "three step process;" it's three separate options that a party who lost can choose to pursue in various mixtures. The thing that's toxic in his estimation is that the GOP has completely given up on option 1, and has been passing laws to assist with option 3. Which was what the whole "making it legal for the legislature to remove county election board members at will" thing in Georgia was about.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

How long has it been since the GOP had a strategy of enacting laws making it easier for all eligible voters to vote?
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by thoreau »

D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Apr 2021, 12:07 How long has it been since the GOP had a strategy of enacting laws making it easier for all eligible voters to vote?
Reconstruction?
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Shem »

The extension of the Voting Rights Act that John Roberts totally didn't directly contravene his own judicial philosophy to kill was done under a Republican President.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Shem wrote: 17 Apr 2021, 13:08 The extension of the Voting Rights Act that John Roberts totally didn't directly contravene his own judicial philosophy to kill was done under a Republican President.
So that would be the case of the Republican administration supporting the status quo, not pushing the envelope, right?
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

thoreau wrote: 17 Apr 2021, 13:04
D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Apr 2021, 12:07 How long has it been since the GOP had a strategy of enacting laws making it easier for all eligible voters to vote?
Reconstruction?
And look at how well that went.
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Re: The Glooming of 2024: Return of the Knave of Orange

Post by Shem »

D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Apr 2021, 14:19
Shem wrote: 17 Apr 2021, 13:08 The extension of the Voting Rights Act that John Roberts totally didn't directly contravene his own judicial philosophy to kill was done under a Republican President.
So that would be the case of the Republican administration supporting the status quo, not pushing the envelope, right?
I suppose one can argue that, though the fact that the W Bush Administration actively chose to pursue the extension as part of an attempt to win minority votes makes it something of a hard sell, at least in my opinion.
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