2020 Status Check

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Warren
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by Warren »

JasonL wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 08:52 I'm not really saying we can be a Cantonic system. I'm saying that we should look at the mechanisms of its operation to see if there's anything we can do. Geneva is insanely richer than like the bernese oberland moo cow country. How does cost sharing work while retaining cantonic independence and accountability? We just can't pretend states do things that they never do.

It occurs to me, and I don't know this, that the nature of the cantons being independent states for so long implies cantonic capitals that probably serve as regional economic engines. It could be that Bern can adequately fund the large pasturelands surrounding without much help from Geneva, but you need at least one engine city per area.
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JasonL
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by JasonL »

Probably. OTOH. As of right now jan 7 2021 at 5:13PM Eastern, I feel like I'm living in the stupidest possible world with the stupidest people and the stupidest institutions so just pulling levers ought to be an improvement.

My first actual thoughts this AM as I woke up were something like "If I am in a riots and fistpunchy banana republic type arrangement, the ones in the Mediterranean have better weather."
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by Jennifer »

JasonL wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 17:16 Probably. OTOH. As of right now jan 7 2021 at 5:13PM Eastern, I feel like I'm living in the stupidest possible world with the stupidest people and the stupidest institutions so just pulling levers ought to be an improvement.
If it's any consolation: if this truly were the stupidest of all possible worlds, yesterday's coup attempt would've succeeded.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by thoreau »

JasonL wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 17:16 Probably. OTOH. As of right now jan 7 2021 at 5:13PM Eastern, I feel like I'm living in the stupidest possible world with the stupidest people and the stupidest institutions so just pulling levers ought to be an improvement.

My first actual thoughts this AM as I woke up were something like "If I am in a riots and fistpunchy banana republic type arrangement, the ones in the Mediterranean have better weather."
Per JD, here's confirmation that we're in the stupidest possible timeline:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/lyapalater/via ... t-his-name
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Mo
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2020 Status Check

Post by Mo »

Warren wrote:
Mo wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 01:37 I now thing centralized quarantine is a superior pandemic mitigation response. People are fucking idiots and we’d better off if we just locked down people that tested positive for two weeks than locking everyone down for months.
and we still are
No you aren’t. In most places in the US the rules around things like dining are looser than here in Singapore, where a bad day is 5 cases. It’s a bit of a not commuting to be open and not shutting down. Europe and the UK have been doing lockdowns.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by nicole »

Mo wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 19:20
Warren wrote:
Mo wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 01:37 I now thing centralized quarantine is a superior pandemic mitigation response. People are fucking idiots and we’d better off if we just locked down people that tested positive for two weeks than locking everyone down for months.
and we still are
No you aren’t. In most places in the US the rules around things like dining are looser than here in Singapore, where a bad day is 5 cases. It’s a bit of a not commuting to be open and not shutting down. Europe and the UK have been doing lockdowns.
We still are if you actually don’t want to get sick.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

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nicole wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 19:35
Mo wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 19:20
Warren wrote:
Mo wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 01:37 I now thing centralized quarantine is a superior pandemic mitigation response. People are fucking idiots and we’d better off if we just locked down people that tested positive for two weeks than locking everyone down for months.
and we still are
No you aren’t. In most places in the US the rules around things like dining are looser than here in Singapore, where a bad day is 5 cases. It’s a bit of a not commuting to be open and not shutting down. Europe and the UK have been doing lockdowns.
We still are if you actually don’t want to get sick.
What I meant was, we'd still be better off quarantining people who test positive for two weeks and segregating at risk people from those that haven't tested positive.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

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We don’t have enough tests (still). Because so much transmission is by asymptomatic or presymptomatic people, the only way to make that work would be with very, very widespread testing repeated frequently.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

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Warren wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 20:20
nicole wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 19:35
Mo wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 19:20
Warren wrote:
Mo wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 01:37 I now thing centralized quarantine is a superior pandemic mitigation response. People are fucking idiots and we’d better off if we just locked down people that tested positive for two weeks than locking everyone down for months.
and we still are
No you aren’t. In most places in the US the rules around things like dining are looser than here in Singapore, where a bad day is 5 cases. It’s a bit of a not commuting to be open and not shutting down. Europe and the UK have been doing lockdowns.
We still are if you actually don’t want to get sick.
What I meant was, we'd still be better off quarantining people who test positive for two weeks and segregating at risk people from those that haven't tested positive.
Yup. Problem is people would fucking freak out if everyone that tested positive was forced to spend two weeks in a Hilton Garden Inn.

Also agree with 6 that things are too fucked to pull this off now.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by Shem »

JasonL wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 08:52 It occurs to me, and I don't know this, that the nature of the cantons being independent states for so long implies cantonic capitals that probably serve as regional economic engines. It could be that Bern can adequately fund the large pasturelands surrounding without much help from Geneva, but you need at least one engine city per area.
So something more akin to the Fallout world before the bombs, where the country was relined by Congress into 13 commonwealths rather than 50 states.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by Warren »

I'm really starting to feel the cultural divide. I've been watching it from afar, but it hadn't affected me directly. It was hard to tell how deep it went. But now it's reaching me. I don't make friends easily (no really, I don't) and I've lost a few over politics on FB. Which is something I've been actively trying to avoid, but haven't been vigilant enough I guess. Now the guy that organizes the golf outing for our annual family reunion has sent out the following email
I apologize to everyone, however I will not be attending the family reunion any more. It seems politics has become part of the family and you can't be for one person unless it's the one that others want you to be for, without being unfriended by the family. I thought family was family and had nothing to do with politics and who you were for or not for. I regret it has come to this, I would have never guessed this would happen. Family is far more important than anything else in this world we live in and I regret that now politics is more important than family. Someone else will have to take care of the family reunion golf outing if you have one. I love my family and I love you all. Hope to see you around and if I do, I promise I will treat you the same as I always have, regardless of who you voted for.

My mom and dad would highly disappointed as one was republican and one was democrat. Wow, How did they ever stay married for 50 years.

I am becoming convinced that the coming years are going to be a bigger shit show than the 60's and with shittier music.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

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JasonL wrote: 04 Jan 2021, 12:12
Highway wrote: 04 Jan 2021, 11:46 Jason, I don't know if you're still stuck on that (off by at least a factor of 10, if not by 30) "90,000 people died because of Cuomo's decision about nursing homes" falsehood you brought up before, and if that's why you feel like Cuomo is so responsible for things, but if that is the reason, then you really need to reexamine that and anything you've connected to that. And if that was a typo and you meant 9,000, then that really pales in comparison to the 350,000 deaths in the US, of which at least 250,000 have occurred after rescinding that guidance, and 310,000 have happened in places Cuomo has no authority.

I think there are a lot of people who must shoulder blame, but I don't see how you can take the whole reality created by the Trump administration's response from the beginning, including Trump himself lying to create the responses he wanted (trying to goose the stock market among them), and just wave that away as a non-factor. The fact that Federal entities like the CDC have to at least account for Trump colors everything they have done, so blaming the CDC still comes back to Trump. The entire picture of 4 years of Trump as President is the message from every Federal entity being colored by what the Orange one wants.
Yes, the 90k number appears to have been something interpreted from the mid summer figures that could not have been NYC only. Can't even find the article. Total nursing home impact globally? Not sure. It anchored in my brain somewhere May to June. Total COVID positive admissions into NYC nursing homes was like 6,700. The Cuomo accepted death rate is a joke claiming only 6,500 or so, but it is nowhere near 90k. By pure accident I think 9k is probably a reasonable number. https://apnews.com/article/ap-top-news- ... a00514647f

The CDC strategy was to insist upon centralized testing. This is NOT a response to trump. Cuomo's policy was NOT a response to trump.
The crazy thing is that an engaged, competent, free-marketeer-in-the-utilitarian-sense President could've actually had a positive impact and said, "hey roll this out fast and if that means even temporarily purchasing/using someone else's tech or putting this out on the open market, do it and do it now." Perfect world Trump should've been able to do that, or at least had the instincts to do it, or at least had people in the appropriate agencies with the instincts and initiative to do it. But because he's an addled, peri-dementia'd psychopathic narcissist, there was nobody competent to just double check their strategy and say, "Hey I think I see a problem."

It's not fair to say it's Trump's fault, but it was soaring right through the middle of the strike zone, and Trump was busy yelling at the bat boy about how the box scores are fake news.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by lunchstealer »

Shem wrote: 04 Jan 2021, 11:39
JasonL wrote: 04 Jan 2021, 10:28 We need to figure out how to navigate pandemic with actual risks. Every time I see that local Ohio ad saying the 'virus kills young and old it doesn't discriminate' with crying nurses I want to punch them all. Yes. It totally discriminates. Stop. Doing. That.
No. It doesn't discriminate. It kills unhealthy people. Who are statistically more likely to be old, so it's more dangerous to them, but not universally so, especially since younger people can have factors that don't have much impact in their day-to-day life that make the danger of complications just as high as someone older. Just to take one example, in a country with obesity rates like ours, a disease that's more likely to kill obese people isn't the sort of thing you can handwave off with "well, it actually kills mostly old people."
I have seen at least one antimasker claiming that since it kills obese people it's not her problem to protect them from their own bad choices.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by lunchstealer »

Mo wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 01:37 Like Jason, I’m buying into the Bowling Alone thesis. This has hit closer to home moving to a new place and how hard it is to make connections during the pandemic.
For Jason, how does this play into the 'move to where the jobs are' model?
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by Shem »

lunchstealer wrote: 11 Jan 2021, 17:23
Mo wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 01:37 Like Jason, I’m buying into the Bowling Alone thesis. This has hit closer to home moving to a new place and how hard it is to make connections during the pandemic.
For Jason, how does this play into the 'move to where the jobs are' model?
Or the people who didn't move who are pissed off that all the kids have no choice but to move away and hollow out the town in order to get decent work.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

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I mean the condition in recent history is very few people relocating - downward trend for decades. What you see in 2020 is lots of well off people relocating out of large cities. I'm not sure as the numbers aren't in how many people in middle class and down have relocated but judging by rents is some amount.

There's the long run and the short run. If you are a low skilled person earning a 15% regional wage premium but incurring a +50% cost of living burden and you are subject to pandemic which nukes 85% of amenities you are supposed to be getting for that arrangement, I'd be thinking about relocating too. Will it make you happy? I don't know. I know that people historically have moved and didn't die. All I'm saying is there's a nontrivial cost to the decision to remain in that condition.

As for hollowed out towns, I don't know what that means exactly. I can't make there be "good jobs" in every zip code. It's a set of highly complex factors that determines local labor markets. Politicians who say they can are lying. Strategies like UBI are not at all addressing those problems. Some towns should "die" to the extent we want to treat them as life forms. The flow of people and money creates the new equilibrium. Limited flow doesn't preserve anything.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by Warren »

I would say that Pandemic Economy is a unique outlier. Like nationwide aerial bombing. It's going to take a while to assess the damage.
The real question is, how will the economy respond once the COVID restrictions are lifted.
No doubt there will be a surge in economic activity. But long term, I think the pandemic did more lasting damage. My gut says that savings have been depleted, new startups won't fully replace the small businesses that have gone under, the unemployed returning to work will have to accept lesser jobs than they lost, older workers will be shut out of the job market altogether.

I think we're in a hole that's going to take longer to dig our way out of than it did to dig it.
And I am 100% certain that the government's response will be a thousand variations of Money Printer Go Brrr.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by JD »

Warren wrote: 12 Jan 2021, 11:14 And I am 100% certain that the government's response will be a thousand variations of Money Printer Go Brrr.
Pretty much. I was just reading an article (from April of last year) about Representative Tlaib's "Automatic Boost to Communities" Act, which called for a $2000/month payment to all "eligible individuals", which would have included dependent minors (and very nearly anyone else with a pulse, basically). The population of the US is roughly 325 million; $2000/month would mean total monthly outlays of $650 billion. By way of comparison, Biden's plan calls for only a single round of $2000 checks...
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by Aresen »

Shem wrote: 11 Jan 2021, 17:55
lunchstealer wrote: 11 Jan 2021, 17:23
Mo wrote: 07 Jan 2021, 01:37 Like Jason, I’m buying into the Bowling Alone thesis. This has hit closer to home moving to a new place and how hard it is to make connections during the pandemic.
For Jason, how does this play into the 'move to where the jobs are' model?
Or the people who didn't move who are pissed off that all the kids have no choice but to move away and hollow out the town in order to get decent work.
I saw that in Italy 15 years ago. We stopped in several 'picturesque' small towns. I noticed there were almost no young people, only middle-aged and older adults. The young people had all moved to the large cities.
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by Jadagul »

Warren wrote: 12 Jan 2021, 11:14 I would say that Pandemic Economy is a unique outlier. Like nationwide aerial bombing. It's going to take a while to assess the damage.
The real question is, how will the economy respond once the COVID restrictions are lifted.
No doubt there will be a surge in economic activity. But long term, I think the pandemic did more lasting damage. My gut says that savings have been depleted, new startups won't fully replace the small businesses that have gone under, the unemployed returning to work will have to accept lesser jobs than they lost, older workers will be shut out of the job market altogether.

I think we're in a hole that's going to take longer to dig our way out of than it did to dig it.
And I am 100% certain that the government's response will be a thousand variations of Money Printer Go Brrr.
Real personal income is up.
Image

Savings rate is up
Image

Debt service payments are down.
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Net worth is below trend but nearly on trend
Image

Most people are more financially comfortable now than a year ago. Which shouldn't minimize the fact that some people have been utterly fucked and are in an awful place, but on average people are doing pretty well financially.
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JasonL
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Re: 2020 Status Check

Post by JasonL »

I honestly really and for true think the cost side in the key areas of healthcare and geographically variable cost of living are the 2 most significant features of low income suffering. The general price level is not high. Incomes are rising, low skill slower than most but still. Savings is kind of pathetic but better than the US norm over the past decade. Markets are carrying balance sheets so you have to be careful about net worth and value of saving in that regard come correction time, but it just doesn't feel like end of days outside of the narratives people spin. Brutal earnings vs rents calculations in specific zip codes and the erosion of corporate checks as well as all other people paying otherwise by healthcare costs are doing a ton of damage to disposable incomes.
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