Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

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Eric the .5b
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Eric the .5b »

That's really not a lot of people. If it were thousands, that might be significant.
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Warren
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Warren »

Eric the .5b wrote: 12 Jan 2021, 16:20 That's really not a lot of people. If it were thousands, that might be significant.
Give it another week.
OTOH they may well all switch back by Biden's 100th day.
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Shem
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

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Hugh Akston wrote: 12 Jan 2021, 16:18 People seem to be de-registering from Team Red for some reason
Since last week’s deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, about 225 Republicans logged in to the election office in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, to change their party registration.
In Cumberland County, Pennsylvania, 192 people have changed their party registration since the Jan. 6 riot. Only 13 switched to the GOP — the other 179 changed to Democrat, independent or a third party, according to Bethany Salzarulo, the director of the bureau of elections.
In Linn County, Iowa, home to Cedar Rapids, more than four dozen voters dropped their Republican Party affiliations in the 48 hours after the Capitol attack. They mostly switched to no party, elections commissioner Joel Miller said, though a small number took the highly unusual step of cancelling their registrations altogether.
“I do think there’s a palpable shift, from knee-jerk defense of the president to ‘wow, that was a bridge too far,’” said Kirk Adams, the former Republican speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives.

Adams said he knew several people, including once-solid Trump supporters, who are switching their registrations. He said it may be weeks or months before the full impact of the insurrection is clear.

“Minds are being changed,” he said. “But you can’t go overnight from ‘I think the president’s right and the election is being stolen’ to ‘I guess he was wrong about everything.’”
Are we sure they're going to "Trump was wrong," and not "the GOP is feckless and won't support the god-emperor?" I've suspected for a while most of the new and disengaged people Trump turned out voted because they like Trump, not because they're Republicans. I don't think they're going to turn out without Trump on the ballot, and this might be a sign of that.
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Hugh Akston
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Hugh Akston »

Shem wrote: 12 Jan 2021, 17:27
Hugh Akston wrote: 12 Jan 2021, 16:18 People seem to be de-registering from Team Red for some reason
Since last week’s deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, about 225 Republicans logged in to the election office in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, to change their party registration.
In Cumberland County, Pennsylvania, 192 people have changed their party registration since the Jan. 6 riot. Only 13 switched to the GOP — the other 179 changed to Democrat, independent or a third party, according to Bethany Salzarulo, the director of the bureau of elections.
In Linn County, Iowa, home to Cedar Rapids, more than four dozen voters dropped their Republican Party affiliations in the 48 hours after the Capitol attack. They mostly switched to no party, elections commissioner Joel Miller said, though a small number took the highly unusual step of cancelling their registrations altogether.
“I do think there’s a palpable shift, from knee-jerk defense of the president to ‘wow, that was a bridge too far,’” said Kirk Adams, the former Republican speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives.

Adams said he knew several people, including once-solid Trump supporters, who are switching their registrations. He said it may be weeks or months before the full impact of the insurrection is clear.

“Minds are being changed,” he said. “But you can’t go overnight from ‘I think the president’s right and the election is being stolen’ to ‘I guess he was wrong about everything.’”
Are we sure they're going to "Trump was wrong," and not "the GOP is feckless and won't support the god-emperor?" I've suspected for a while most of the new and disengaged people Trump turned out voted because they like Trump, not because they're Republicans. I don't think they're going to turn out without Trump on the ballot, and this might be a sign of that.
Yeah the "for some reason" was somewhat ironic but somewhat not ironic. It's possible that they thought Trump went too far. It's also possible that they thought Republicans didn't go too far enough. It also mentions in the story that party affiliation doesn't necessarily translate to votes, and 2022/24 is a long ways off.

It is interesting to see a minor surge like that directly in the aftermath of the DC coup though.
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Aresen
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Aresen »

Warren wrote: 12 Jan 2021, 16:38
Eric the .5b wrote: 12 Jan 2021, 16:20 That's really not a lot of people. If it were thousands, that might be significant.
Give it another week.
OTOH they may well all switch back by Biden's 100th day.
I intially read that as "...switch back by Biden's 100th birthday."
'Wait a minute! Biden's not that old.'
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Eric the .5b »

Aresen wrote: 12 Jan 2021, 18:00
Warren wrote: 12 Jan 2021, 16:38
Eric the .5b wrote: 12 Jan 2021, 16:20 That's really not a lot of people. If it were thousands, that might be significant.
Give it another week.
OTOH they may well all switch back by Biden's 100th day.
I intially read that as "...switch back by Biden's 100th birthday."
'Wait a minute! Biden's not that old.'
I did the same. :)
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Mo
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Mo »

I’m not the only one that thinks Cheney is going hard against Trump in a cynical move to be the Speaker when this all ends.

It will be interesting to see what the GOP does now that Adelson is dead and there are a bunch of companies that have pledged not to donate to the majority of R congressmen.
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Jennifer
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Jennifer »

The GOP’s existential crisis, explained by a former Republican Congress member -- “There’s no post-Trump plan. And they all know it.”
What the hell happened to the Republican Party?

I’ve been asking myself this question since Donald Trump began his hostile takeover in 2015. After the insurrection at the US Capitol on January 6, there’s a whole new urgency to the inquiry.

The GOP bears a ton of responsibility for what happened at the Capitol, not just because it has nurtured Trump’s excesses for the last four years but also because it has helped spread objectively false claims about the legitimacy of the 2020 election.

Earlier this week, I spoke to authors Geoffrey Kabaservice and Daniel Ziblatt about the history of the Republican Party and why the radicalization we’re seeing today is different from that of previous eras. But I also wanted to talk to someone on the legislative side about what members of the party are thinking now and why they seem unable to pull back from the brink.

So I reached out to David Jolly, a former GOP congressman from Florida. Jolly left Congress in 2017 and, shortly thereafter, renounced his membership in the Republican Party....
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thoreau
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by thoreau »

The future is a high heel stomping on a human face forever.

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2021/ ... ssion=true
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dhex
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by dhex »

I'll believe Ivanka is in it when she actually does something. The amusements of a Don Jr run for anything will be outweighed by the sheer heat and light of attention it would garner (largely negative).
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thoreau
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

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Only an idiot would vote for Don Jr., but this is the American electorate we're talking about.
"saying 'socialism' where normies can hear it is wrapping a bunch of barbed wire around a bat, handing the bat to the GOP, and standing with your head in the strike zone."
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Under the at least plausible working hypothesis that the rest of Trump's family members aren't barking mad, I think most if not all will want to stay out of the limelight at least until Donny shuffles off this mortal coil. They've got a boatload of financial and legal problems they're going to need to sort out first, and that could take a long, long time.

That said, a presidential run by Barron might be worth it for the lulz.
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Mo
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Mo »

If you asked me 4 years ago, I would have thought that Ivanka would have been the most viable Trump to successfully run for something. Now it's clearly DJTJ. Despite being an anthropomorphic line of coke, he clearly has identified the key appeal of his father, which is unfocused rage and resentments. He probably still loses, but there's a credible theory for him. Ivanka is just a content free, pretty white woman and doesn't really appeal to any constituency with the Trump baggage. The most delicious part is now Ivanka has to slink away from Manhattan and move to Florida.
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thoreau
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by thoreau »

Remember that Michigan Republican on the elections board? The one who voted to certify the results and got death threats? The state party decided not to reappoint him to the board.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 202195001/

They want 2024 to be even worse than 2020.
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Aresen
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

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Mo wrote: 17 Jan 2021, 21:35 If you asked me 4 years ago, I would have thought that Ivanka would have been the most viable Trump to successfully run for something. Now it's clearly DJTJ. Despite being an anthropomorphic line of coke, he clearly has identified the key appeal of his father, which is unfocused rage and resentments. He probably still loses, but there's a credible theory for him. Ivanka is just a content free, pretty white woman and doesn't really appeal to any constituency with the Trump baggage. The most delicious part is now Ivanka has to slink away from Manhattan and move to Florida.
Jr strikes me as a mouseketeer with daddy issues.
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Mo
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Mo »

He is. But if you look at the not at all creepily homoerotic Trump fan art, conforming to reality is not a prereq
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex
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