Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Hugh Akston »



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dead_elvis
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by dead_elvis »

"Fecal Plume" is a word combination I could have happily gone my whole life without knowing.

This is also something that is making me contemplate wearing a diaper to jury duty. They can do all the ventilation and distancing they want in the building, bathrooms are still very small rooms where you *will* smell other peoples' shit no matter that the fan is running.
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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

dead_elvis wrote: 27 Aug 2020, 12:45 "Fecal Plume" is a word combination I could have happily gone my whole life without knowing.
Not really. You may not have known that name for it, but you already knew it was a thing.

This is also something that is making me contemplate wearing a diaper to jury duty. They can do all the ventilation and distancing they want in the building, bathrooms are still very small rooms where you *will* smell other peoples' shit no matter that the fan is running.
I'd go with a respirator.
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Painboy
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Painboy »

Another interesting COVID theory.

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged: A closer look at the Bradykinin hypothesis
According to the team’s findings, a Covid-19 infection generally begins when the virus enters the body through ACE2 receptors in the nose, (The receptors, which the virus is known to target, are abundant there.) The virus then proceeds through the body, entering cells in other places where ACE2 is also present: the intestines, kidneys, and heart. This likely accounts for at least some of the disease’s cardiac and GI symptoms.

But once Covid-19 has established itself in the body, things start to get really interesting. According to Jacobson’s group, the data Summit analyzed shows that Covid-19 isn’t content to simply infect cells that already express lots of ACE2 receptors. Instead, it actively hijacks the body’s own systems, tricking it into upregulating ACE2 receptors in places where they’re usually expressed at low or medium levels, including the lungs.

In this sense, Covid-19 is like a burglar who slips in your unlocked second-floor window and starts to ransack your house. Once inside, though, they don’t just take your stuff — they also throw open all your doors and windows so their accomplices can rush in and help pillage more efficiently.
Also maybe why respirators aren't very effective.
And Covid-19 has another especially insidious trick. Through another pathway, the team’s data shows, it increases production of hyaluronic acid (HLA) in the lungs. HLA is often used in soaps and lotions for its ability to absorb more than 1,000 times its weight in fluid. When it combines with fluid leaking into the lungs, the results are disastrous: It forms a hydrogel, which can fill the lungs in some patients. According to Jacobson, once this happens, “it’s like trying to breathe through Jell-O.”
This may explain why ventilators have proven less effective in treating advanced Covid-19 than doctors originally expected, based on experiences with other viruses. “It reaches a point where regardless of how much oxygen you pump in, it doesn’t matter, because the alveoli in the lungs are filled with this hydrogel,” Jacobson says. “The lungs become like a water balloon.” Patients can suffocate even while receiving full breathing support.
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Yes, I read that yesterday and emailed it to a few people. If nothing else, it makes a reasonable case for Vitamin D supplements as a "might help/won't hurt" measure.
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Painboy
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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A NBER study on whether non-pharmaceutical interventions actually had a significant effect on transmission.
We document four facts about the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide relevant for those studying the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 transmission. First: across all countries and U.S. states that we study, the growth rates of daily deaths from COVID-19 fell from a wide range of initially high levels to levels close to zero within 20-30 days after each region experienced 25 cumulative deaths. Second: after this initial period, growth rates of daily deaths have hovered around zero or below everywhere in the world. Third: the cross section standard deviation of growth rates of daily deaths across locations fell very rapidly in the first 10 days of the epidemic and has remained at a relatively low level since then. Fourth: when interpreted through a range of epidemiological models, these first three facts about the growth rate of COVID deaths imply that both the effective reproduction numbers and transmission rates of COVID-19 fell from widely dispersed initial levels and the effective reproduction number has hovered around one after the first 30 days of the epidemic virtually everywhere in the world. We argue that failing to account for these four stylized facts may result in overstating the importance of policy mandated NPIs for shaping the progression of this deadly pandemic.
From the paper itself (emphasis mine).
This finding of a rapid decline in the transmission of COVID-19 within the first 30 days of the progression of the pandemic in widely heterogeneous countries worldwide and the persistence of these low transmission rates over the past few months has important implications for studies of the impact of policy interventions on the progression of this epidemic. Several prominent studies, including Dehning et al. (2020), Hsiang et al. (2020), and Flaxman et al. (2020), have studied empirically the role of government-mandated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing the
transmission of COVID-19, and many of these studies argue that these NPI’s had a large impact on the transmission rate of the disease in the early phase of the pandemic. Given the observation that transmission rates for COVID-19 fell virtually everywhere in the world during this early pandemic period, we are concerned that these studies may substantially overstate the role of government-mandated NPI’s in reducing disease transmission due to an omitted variable bias. Moreover, given the observation that disease transmission rates have remained low with relatively low dispersion across locations worldwide for the past several months as NPI’s have been lifted, we are concerned that estimates of the effectiveness of NPI’s in reducing disease transmission from the earlier period may not be relevant for forecasting the impact of the relaxation of those NPI’s in the current period, due to some unobserved switch in regime.
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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

I'm withdrawing this bet. So glad nobody took me up on it.
I'm honestly stunned to see that politics trumps everything, even death.
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lunchstealer
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by lunchstealer »

Warren wrote: 15 Sep 2020, 09:55 I'm withdrawing this bet. So glad nobody took me up on it.
I'm honestly stunned to see that politics trumps everything, even death.
Dude the GOP has Qanons running for the House, and there's almost no chance that they'll lose. When politics trumps remotely-plausible-understandings-of-reality death doesn't have a chance. Just deny the death as MSM bullshit it's just the flu the numbers are lies, and boom death isn't a problem politics are safe yay!
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Eric the .5b »

Warren wrote: 15 Sep 2020, 09:55 I'm withdrawing this bet. So glad nobody took me up on it.
You mean you're glad nobody else was up for betting on how many thousands of their fellow-citizens were going to die.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

I didnt see the bet. I would have taken it and I dont gamble.
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lunchstealer
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by lunchstealer »

Pham Nuwen wrote: 15 Sep 2020, 15:00 I didnt see the bet. I would have taken it and I dont gamble.
It wouldn't have been gambling.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

That's the idea.
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Kolohe
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Kolohe »

I would have probably still taken the under at 200k at the time that post was written.
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Kolohe
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Kolohe »

On March 25, we hadn’t even closed schools for the year yet in most places.
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Highway
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Highway »

Kolohe wrote: 16 Sep 2020, 15:15 I would have probably still taken the under at 200k at the time that post was written.
Kolohe wrote: 16 Sep 2020, 15:17 On March 25, we hadn’t even closed schools for the year yet in most places.
Yeah, even when things were getting better in NY / the Northeast in the mid-April time frame, it was like "ok, we're getting this under control, cases are going down, deaths should follow that." And we're getting on top of it, and... then it got to the rest of the country. And then May and June and July happened, with the nationwide spike that dwarfed the spring spike, and then the 'thousand deaths per day" thing took over for all of July and August.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Kolohe wrote: 16 Sep 2020, 15:17 On March 25, we hadn’t even closed schools for the year yet in most places.
They were openly talking about cancelling all surgeries including ortho. Ortho keeps the lights on in this place. That is not a statement my hospital would make openly without good reason. I knew shit was bad and going to get worse before it got better. I believe that's around the time my emails from work were putting out their 2 year time frame as well.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

I should have taken that bet. I figured that even with the curve flattening this thing would still rip through a good chunk of the population by now. If the fatality rate is 0.5% (yeah, many studies say more, some say less, I'm being conservative here) then 200k deaths means 40 million infections. That's only about 12% of the US population. With all the rhetoric that EVERYONE would get it, I figured more than 12% of the population would be infected by now.

And if the fatality rate that I used in my estimate is too low, then you'd get 200k deaths from infecting an even smaller percentage of the population.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Eric the .5b »

And now Trump is referencing herd immunity, which would require enough people infected that we'd have almost two million deaths.

You know, around the level of the the worst-case scenarios, beyond the numbers that got all those vacant eyes around the country rolling.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

Eric the .5b wrote: 16 Sep 2020, 17:51 And now Trump is referencing herd immunity, which would require enough people infected that we'd have almost two million deaths.

You know, around the level of the the worst-case scenarios, beyond the numbers that got all those vacant eyes around the country rolling.
But he never said that. And if he did we shouldn't take it seriously. And even if he meant it seriously, it's not like he can do it. And even if he can't do it, it isn't his fault if he does it and it works out that way.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jennifer »

I continue to be gobsmacked by Trump's handling of coronavirus, given that his own elderly demographic of supporters is most likely to be killed by it. Granted, earlier there was that revelation that he and Kushner decided to deliberately ignore it on the theory that it would hit blue states harder than red, but that has since proven untrue (that Blue states would be hit harder, not that Trump and Kushner were that blase about killing their own fellow Americans if said Americans would not vote for them) and still Trump doesn't care -- the the point of STILL holding crowded no-mask rallies. He already lost Herman Cain's vote because of that; hasn't he figured out that he's likely to lose more?
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

I feel he probably didn't lose any voters that followed Cain.
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Pham Nuwen wrote: 17 Sep 2020, 07:52 I feel he probably didn't lose any voters that followed Cain.
Not, at least, if they followed him to the grave.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

The gerrymandering and voter suppression has made good those numbers. Trust me.
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Hugh Akston
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Hugh Akston »

For Ellie: Cats with COVID-19 naturally develop antibodies to fight virus, tests show
New research from Spain on two cats that caught the virus suggests felines are able to develop their own antibodies that effectively neutralize COVID-19.

The findings are thanks to Negrito, a four-year-old cat that tested positive for the virus in May after its owners also contracted the disease. Negrito made headlines as the first cat in Spain to test positive for the virus, and the animal had severe respiratory problems.

After being brought to an animal hospital, Negrito was diagnosed with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, a condition not related to the cat’s COVID-19 infection. The cat was euthanized, and a necropsy confirmed that the animal had no other lesions or symptoms compatible with a coronavirus infection.

More significantly, scientists determined through testing that Negrito had a very low viral load. Serological tests were then performed on Negrito and another house cat, Whisky, that lived in the same home.
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Jennifer
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jennifer »

Hugh Akston wrote: 02 Oct 2020, 17:22 For Ellie: Cats with COVID-19 naturally develop antibodies to fight virus, tests show
New research from Spain on two cats that caught the virus suggests felines are able to develop their own antibodies that effectively neutralize COVID-19.

The findings are thanks to Negrito, a four-year-old cat that tested positive for the virus in May after its owners also contracted the disease. Negrito made headlines as the first cat in Spain to test positive for the virus, and the animal had severe respiratory problems.

After being brought to an animal hospital, Negrito was diagnosed with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, a condition not related to the cat’s COVID-19 infection. The cat was euthanized, and a necropsy confirmed that the animal had no other lesions or symptoms compatible with a coronavirus infection.

More significantly, scientists determined through testing that Negrito had a very low viral load. Serological tests were then performed on Negrito and another house cat, Whisky, that lived in the same home.
From my recent Spanish-language lessons, I know that "negrito" means "little black," which in turn means someone, somewhere, will conclude this is racist.
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