Dangerman wrote: ↑
22 May 2020, 09:34
Until there is a vaccine, and maybe afterwards as well, the virus will be endemic in the population. Masking and distancing are to flatten the curve and keep the hospitals from getting overwhelmed, not because we can stop the spread in its tracks. Most if not all of the population will be exposed at some point. I don't agree with Warren, partly because I'm living with my GF who is immune-compromised, but he's unlikely to be the reason anyone dies.
"Most if not all of the population will be exposed at some point" seems pretty unlikely to me, at least as an unconditional statement. Several nations have driven the infection rate down to effectively zero, through a combination of rigorous lockdowns, effective testing and tracing, and near-universal mask-wearing. So your statement is more likely to be true if people wander around not wearing masks, but it doesn't have to be true.
Second, historical infection rates are still pretty low in most places, like a few percent. Even if we keep R hovering around one, we'd probably not top fifty percent before we get to a vaccine, and could easily keep it down below twenty-ish in a lot of places. I would rather get the infection rates down lower than that before we glide along R=1, but that's a far cry from "everyone gets it".
Third, even in a totally uncontrolled spread, it's unlikely that "everyone" would get it. If you believe the R ~ 3 numbers from early in the pandemic, an uncontrolled spread would hit about 80% exposure. And a moderately controlled spread would get to like 65% exposure. The first number is significantly and important different from 100%; and the second number is significantly and importantly different from the first.
Hugh Akston wrote: ↑
22 May 2020, 15:57
Latest CDC estimates
In new guidance for mathematical modelers and public health officials, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is estimating that about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.
The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.
The agency cautions that those numbers are subject to change as more is learned about Covid-19, and it warns that the information is intended for planning purposes. Still, the agency says its estimates are based on real data collected by the agency before April 29.
A lot of epidemiologists are unhappy about this report because the numbers are substantially below almost all the other estimates. See e.g. Bergstrom here
The more I think about it, the more this bothers me.
These numbers are so far outside of the scientific consensus that this strikes me as a devious and cynical effort to manipulate not only federal modeling but the broader scientific discourse.