DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

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JasonL
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 24 Jan 2019, 12:31

The Kling version on it was better, which is to say there was structural misalignment of skills, locales, and jobs. So, you get back through better coordination of those factors - i.e. the people working in job A now aren't the same people with the same skills as before.

I think there is a case that firms were overstocked with a certain kind of employee that was of limited value to them, but that doesn't mean they were of limited value to anyone for all time.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Painboy » 24 Jan 2019, 13:10

Along with ZMP I thought Cowen's Great Stagnation and no more "low hanging fruit" were always extremely myopic, especially for him. There is almost always low hanging fruit to find but it's not obvious to everyone else until after it's already been harvested. And when one sector of an economy's efficiency starts topping out that often means another is now poised to take advantage of that.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 24 Jan 2019, 14:20

Productivity growth has been barely positive for like 15 years now. That's a real thing. The amount of cash firms are sitting on when flush instead of investing in the new big thing - that's also a real thing. Lots of people seem to behave with real dollars as if they don't know what kind of investments will drive productivity growth. That's worrisome to me. I take secular stagnation more seriously than zero marginal product employees in the non Klingian sense.

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Mo
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 24 Jan 2019, 16:07

JasonL wrote:Productivity growth has been barely positive for like 15 years now. That's a real thing. The amount of cash firms are sitting on when flush instead of investing in the new big thing - that's also a real thing. Lots of people seem to behave with real dollars as if they don't know what kind of investments will drive productivity growth. That's worrisome to me. I take secular stagnation more seriously than zero marginal product employees in the non Klingian sense.
It’s because productivity growth is a flawed measure. By the metrics we use, the internet has not increased economic productivity because it makes things cheaper. More people listen and own to more music than ever before because of new technology. There’s more music being created and sold and shared than ever in human history. However, by traditional measures, productivity in music is waaaaay down because revenue is down.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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JasonL
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 24 Jan 2019, 16:55

But money also staying parked or if not chasing Juicero?

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Mo
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 24 Jan 2019, 17:18

Juicero was dumb and poorly executed, but Nespresso made Nestle billions off of what was a decade of failure.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 31 Jan 2019, 16:21

OFFS. Now the new Fed Funds rate will be 9 9 9.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... erve-board
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Aresen » 31 Jan 2019, 16:40

Mo wrote:
31 Jan 2019, 16:21
OFFS. Now the new Fed Funds rate will be 9 9 9.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... erve-board
I wonder if there will be 'Trump Deniers' 70 years from now like there are Holocaust Deniers.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by thoreau » 31 Jan 2019, 16:49

"The historical record frankly shows more ties between Trump and Russia than Trump and America. Yet they seriously try to suggest that he was President of the US rather than a member of Putin's Cabinet?"
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 10 Feb 2019, 14:23

The percentage of IPOs of negative EPS companies is currently 83%, exceeding the peak ratio of the dotcom boom, which was 81%.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 10 Feb 2019, 14:26

This stuff is dooomey to me. There’s a lot of dumb money - it looks like nobody knows what investments will actually matter.

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Post by Mo » 10 Feb 2019, 14:57

The only thing that makes it feel less doomy is that the people that are losing money are VC investors, Saudi and Asian wealthy doodz and the like. There’s a lot fewer of the mom and pop “I heard of this internet thing” money sunk in.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 22 Mar 2019, 18:55

Thank God we had a party of economic adults that don’t indulge in free stuff fantasies or we’d end up with the largest deficit in history in the middle of the high point of an economic expansion.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 22 Mar 2019, 19:56

The argument now is magnitude of that approach.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 22 Mar 2019, 20:38

JasonL wrote:
22 Mar 2019, 19:56
The argument now is magnitude of that approach.
When you're arguing about the difference between $1.12T and $1.13T deficits, you're not having a meaningful argument.
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JasonL
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 22 Mar 2019, 20:47

Add up green new deal and recalculate.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 22 Mar 2019, 21:23

JasonL wrote:
22 Mar 2019, 20:47
Add up green new deal and recalculate.
So the argument is between fiscal irresponsibility and abject fantasy?
Sides, green new deal is rhetoric, I don't think it's a serious argument. By the time whatever comes of it gets to the Senate, it's going to be bog standard irresponsibility.
Or is your point that the rhetoric itself has become so wackadoodle?
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 22 Mar 2019, 21:40

Nobody even in theory has a platform that accommodates restraint. It’s a full on race for spending.

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Warren » 23 Mar 2019, 00:39

JasonL wrote:
22 Mar 2019, 21:40
Nobody even in theory has a platform that accommodates restraint. It’s a full on race for spending.
Really? Perhaps I haven't been paying close enough attention.
So, if that's the case, what is the best case scenario? What does that look like five and ten years out?
What course of action are you taking/do you suggest wrt prepping for the end times?
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Kolohe » 24 Mar 2019, 20:00

Pulling from another thread on the Trump deficits, re forever war.

In theory, the forever war should be cheaper now when we're fighting it w around 15k deployed troops and flying killer robots, vice when we were fighting it with 200k boots on the ground and all the logistics and Green Bean coffee shops that went along with that.

But we're scheduled to still be throwing over 170 billion (!) at OCO in FY 2020.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Jennifer » 24 Mar 2019, 20:11

Kolohe wrote:
24 Mar 2019, 20:00
Pulling from another thread on the Trump deficits, re forever war.

In theory, the forever war should be cheaper now when we're fighting it w around 15k deployed troops and flying killer robots, vice when we were fighting it with 200k boots on the ground and all the logistics and Green Bean coffee shops that went along with that.

But we're scheduled to still be throwing over 170 billion (!) at OCO in FY 2020.
Isn't there an actual named economic rule explaining this phenomenon, though? When stuff gets cheaper, people don't settle for the same amount as before, only spending less; they end up getting far more of it than they used to.
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DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Mo » 24 Mar 2019, 20:17

Are you thinking of Baulmol’s Cost Disease or the Rebound Effect?
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by Jennifer » 24 Mar 2019, 20:25

Mo wrote:
24 Mar 2019, 20:17
Are you thinking of Baulmol’s Cost Disease or the Rebound Effect?
I don't know. I just remember the usual examples of this I've seen were "nighttime illumination" (IIRC the first-ever gas lamps were only about as bright as a 25-watt incandescent -- very dim by modern standards -- yet contemporary writers mentioned their "blinding" brightness. Nowadays, of course, a typical post-sunset home is FAR brighter than anything you'd find back then), and "clothing/textiles" -- now ridiculously cheap by world historical standards, but instead of cheaply adopting the old standard of "You have the one outfit you wear every day until it falls apart, plus your 'Sunday best' outfit, " a typical modern person (even one who doesn't "care about clothes") has a wardrobe that would've been impossibly expensive and expansive for most of history.
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by nicole » 13 Apr 2019, 08:32

I’ve now ended up at various offshoots of this original twitter thread multiple times and every time I get sucked in, these people’s insanity is my fetish. Take this gem:


Also the fact that lots of Americans, including the most influential, can now go their entire lives without knowing anyone who believes in God.

All this in addition to the increased costs of basics (housing, education, health care) that @michaelbd talks about in that thread.
Man, I love it when people describe my fantasy world as if it were real.

In addition to MBD, McMegan, and Tom Nichols, Will Wilkinson was involved, and let me tell you, my opinion of him has dropped lately (not just over this thread).
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Re: DOOM! (Insert extra Os as you see fit)

Post by JasonL » 13 Apr 2019, 09:27

There's a bunch of economic indicator salad in that thread. The cost of housing across generations is the one that particularly drives me insane.

"The National Association of Home Builders reports that the average home size in America was 983 square feet in 1950, 1,500 square feet in 1970, and 2,349 square feet in 2004. This trend continued in the first half of the 2000s, after which it began to decline somewhat."

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/m ... market.asp

Also, stop fucking picking the most expensive neighborhood you can find for a basis of comparison. The national market is a bit of a lie, and averages conceal insane hot spots and a lot of basically meh tracking closely to inflation with some decline zones.

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