The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

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Shem
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Shem » 09 Aug 2017, 13:20

fyodor wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 12:47
Shem wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 12:33
JasonL wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 10:12
The deal was always a joke. I get annoyed when people act like a good deal was in place and we screwed it up. There was no deal they were building the whole time it was a joke.
No, they really weren't. They had stopped for the better part of 10 years. The '93 deal worked. They started back up after they saw what happened to Saddam Hussein, who never would have been regime-changed if he had nukes. It was reinforced after they watched the West abandon Gaddafi even after he gave up his WMD program. The armistice worked for 50 years because they lived in a world where national sovereignty was inviolate as long as you follow some simple rules. The '93 deal was as much about reassuring them that this was still the case after the end of the cold war as anything. Iraq proved, beyond a doubt, that this was no longer the case. We now expect them to make a deal even though we've already shown no willingness to guarantee sovereignty past the end of a current presidential term, even though a guarantee of sovereignty is the only thing they really want from us. A nuke is the means by which they guarantee we won't move on them. If it then allows them to retreat from military spending, so much the better.

The idea that the US hasn't played a role in driving this only works if you assume the Kims are too stupid to notice what happened to their cohorts in the Hobbes Club when the wrong warmongers (we see you still hanging around DC looking for an in, John Bolton) got into a position of influence. Kim sees us as an existential threat. Would you give up your gun to a guy who just invaded your neighbor's house if he offered you cash for it?
Y'know, I was and am against our invasion of Iraq. But SH did invade another sovereign country (even if our invasion waited a while till after that and was ostensibly in response to violations of agreements forced in response to said invasion). If you're saying NK leaders couldn't tell they only had to follow that rule, I'll take your word for it. But at the risk of sounding like a hawk, I think that's a point that oughtter be included in whatever analysis.

BTW, are you saying we just need to verbally guarantee NK's sovereignty and they'll settle down? Or are you saying that ship has already sailed as a result of our invasions of Iraq and Libya?
SH invaded another country, and he paid for it. When the US came at him and demanded he prove he was living under the agreement that was part of him paying for it, he did so. The US government was unsatisfied at his attitude while he complied, so they invaded and he wound up hung by a legally constituted mob. OK, if you're a tinpot dictator, that's scary. In response to that, Gaddafi rejoins the global community, buying his way in by giving up his WMD program. The Arab Spring happens, and we ditch out on him. And, in response to his repressions to maintain power, we support the rebels, and even ignore his attempts to negotiate an escape to exile. He winds up sodomized on a broomstick and torn apart by a mob.

So, we have two dictators who tried to play ball, and ended up dead. Tell me, given this, if you were in Kim Jong-un's position, would you figure going along were good odds? Or would you fight tooth and nail to get a nuke you could use if they tried to make you the next example?
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JasonL
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by JasonL » 09 Aug 2017, 13:22

When the US came at him and demanded he prove he was living under the agreement that was part of him paying for it, he did so.
He did? He wasn't kicking out round after round of inspectors all the way up to the last minute?

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Shem
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Shem » 09 Aug 2017, 13:30

JasonL wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 12:48
I think it very likely we funded nontrivial amounts of current program with funds they received in the good ol peaceful deal days.
And yet, they spent the better part of a decade under an IAEA inspections regime, one that didn't end until GWB started throwing them into discussions about axis of evil and talking about them in the same sentence as regime change targets. If you want to argue the deal didn't work, you can't ignore the fact that from '94 to about '02, it did. Nor can you ignore the geopolitical facts on the ground that accompanied their abandonment of it.
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fyodor
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by fyodor » 09 Aug 2017, 13:32

Yeah, whether Saddam was playing ball was a real Rorschach test at best. Either way, it obviously came after (and indirectly but very much related to) his own invasion, which is fairly easy to avoid doing if playing ball is what you wanna do.

What would I do??? Hahaha, um, I'd like to think I wouldn't behave exactly like Un, but then, maybe that's why I'll never lead my own Shemocracy! :mrgreen:

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by JasonL » 09 Aug 2017, 13:35

We actually detected and complained formally about the hard evidence we had for enrichment and centrifuges in 02. You think those things appeared 1/1/02 out of thin air? It wasn't a tiny infraction, it was evidence they had been building centrifuges for years and years.

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Shem
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Shem » 09 Aug 2017, 13:36

JasonL wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 13:22
When the US came at him and demanded he prove he was living under the agreement that was part of him paying for it, he did so.
He did? He wasn't kicking out round after round of inspectors all the way up to the last minute?
Nope. If you'll recall, the inspectors didn't leave in '03 until the US told them to get out because hostilities were immanent. They spent the 4 months prior crisscrossing the country looking for WMDs that didn't exist.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by JasonL » 09 Aug 2017, 13:45

I thought Blix & Co. were kicked out in '03 after they published a finding about the missile program whatever the super scud was that they had lied about for 5 years.

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Shem » 09 Aug 2017, 13:55

No, they left of their own accord in March of '03, right before bombing started. Their finding was that 90-95% of the program was destroyed, and that the remaining 5-10% was less a result of subterfuge and more a result of incomplete disarmament previously, and that they couldn't be used to start a new weapons program without first rebuilding what had been destroyed.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Kolohe » 09 Aug 2017, 14:12

lunchstealer wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 03:09
Jennifer wrote:
08 Aug 2017, 22:45
Trump was an idiot to threaten "fire and fury" against NoKo, but Jong Un was even more idiotic by responding with a threat to attack Guam. What the hell does he hope to accomplish here?
You mean aside from destroying a naval base and an airfield that google earth shows stocked with several B-1s, a few B-52s, and a handful of Global Hawks?

The thing is that Un is crazy, but he's more traditionally strategic than bin Laden et al. He's not interested in knocking over a building that Americans are all proud of. He wants to knock some teeth out, not give us uselessly black eye.
That was exactly the Japanese strategic thinking in 1941. It didn't work out in the medium run.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Aresen » 09 Aug 2017, 15:09

JasonL wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 13:17
fyodor wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 12:55
JasonL wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 12:48
I think it very likely we funded nontrivial amounts of current program with funds they received in the good ol peaceful deal days.
As funds are fungible, how could that not be?
Because they were supposed to buy food and alleviate poverty because that was the deal. Or something.
There was a similar 'you can sell some oil for food and medicine deal' for Saddam Hussein. It went mainly for palaces.

What I wish the POTUS would say is "North Korea is fucked up. We have no interest in fucking it up further. We know they say crazy shit, but we are going to ignore what they say. We know they are going to continue to test nukes and missiles. We don't like it, but we can't do much about it. If they don't fuck with us or our allies, we aren't going to fuck with them."
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by lunchstealer » 09 Aug 2017, 15:44

Kolohe wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 14:12
lunchstealer wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 03:09
Jennifer wrote:
08 Aug 2017, 22:45
Trump was an idiot to threaten "fire and fury" against NoKo, but Jong Un was even more idiotic by responding with a threat to attack Guam. What the hell does he hope to accomplish here?
You mean aside from destroying a naval base and an airfield that google earth shows stocked with several B-1s, a few B-52s, and a handful of Global Hawks?

The thing is that Un is crazy, but he's more traditionally strategic than bin Laden et al. He's not interested in knocking over a building that Americans are all proud of. He wants to knock some teeth out, not give us uselessly black eye.
That was exactly the Japanese strategic thinking in 1941. It didn't work out in the medium run.
Hence 'Un is crazy'. Bin Laden was crazy, too, but didn't fancy himself a military genius, so much as a magical whatsit who would defy something something symbol of the Great Satan's power. Taking down the Twin Towers just LOOKS COOL if you've got a boner for symbolism. If you've got a boner for military strategy, taking out a handful of long range nuclear bombers is a very different kind of cool. Both are mostly symbolic victories, but tough guys love symbolism.
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fyodor
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by fyodor » 09 Aug 2017, 16:18

Aresen wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 15:09
JasonL wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 13:17
fyodor wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 12:55
JasonL wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 12:48
I think it very likely we funded nontrivial amounts of current program with funds they received in the good ol peaceful deal days.
As funds are fungible, how could that not be?
Because they were supposed to buy food and alleviate poverty because that was the deal. Or something.
There was a similar 'you can sell some oil for food and medicine deal' for Saddam Hussein. It went mainly for palaces.

What I wish the POTUS would say is "North Korea is fucked up. We have no interest in fucking it up further. We know they say crazy shit, but we are going to ignore what they say. We know they are going to continue to test nukes and missiles. We don't like it, but we can't do much about it. If they don't fuck with us or our allies, we aren't going to fuck with them."
That sounds so good I'll get busy on your new birth certificate if you wanna run yourself!
Your optimism just confuses and enrages me. - Timothy

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Jennifer » 09 Aug 2017, 16:20

lunchstealer wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 03:09
Jennifer wrote:
08 Aug 2017, 22:45
Trump was an idiot to threaten "fire and fury" against NoKo, but Jong Un was even more idiotic by responding with a threat to attack Guam. What the hell does he hope to accomplish here?
You mean aside from destroying a naval base and an airfield that google earth shows stocked with several B-1s, a few B-52s, and a handful of Global Hawks?

The thing is that Un is crazy, but he's more traditionally strategic than bin Laden et al. He's not interested in knocking over a building that Americans are all proud of. He wants to knock some teeth out, not give us uselessly black eye.
Compared to total US military capability, Guam wouldn't even be knocking teeth out; more like giving us an infected hangnail on our non-dominant hand. (Not that it wouldn't be utterly awful for people actually on Guam, of course.) When the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, at least they had a somewhat reasonable hope of "Maybe this will completely knock the US Pacific fleet out of commission, thus leaving us to do as we please sans American interference." But even the best-case (from NK's perspective) scenario of hitting Guam won't do anything like that.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Mo » 09 Aug 2017, 16:39

Palaces are better than nukes. Saddam played coy because showing too much weakness would have opened him up to getting invaded by a still pissed off (rightly) Iran.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Kolohe » 09 Aug 2017, 16:47

Jennifer wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 16:20
lunchstealer wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 03:09
Jennifer wrote:
08 Aug 2017, 22:45
Trump was an idiot to threaten "fire and fury" against NoKo, but Jong Un was even more idiotic by responding with a threat to attack Guam. What the hell does he hope to accomplish here?
You mean aside from destroying a naval base and an airfield that google earth shows stocked with several B-1s, a few B-52s, and a handful of Global Hawks?

The thing is that Un is crazy, but he's more traditionally strategic than bin Laden et al. He's not interested in knocking over a building that Americans are all proud of. He wants to knock some teeth out, not give us uselessly black eye.
Compared to total US military capability, Guam wouldn't even be knocking teeth out; more like giving us an infected hangnail on our non-dominant hand. (Not that it wouldn't be utterly awful for people actually on Guam, of course.) When the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, at least they had a somewhat reasonable hope of "Maybe this will completely knock the US Pacific fleet out of commission, thus leaving us to do as we please sans American interference." But even the best-case (from NK's perspective) scenario of hitting Guam won't do anything like that.
Guam is vitally important to the US military equation in East Asia because of its balance of stand off distance but still close enough to everything.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Jennifer » 09 Aug 2017, 16:52

Kolohe wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 16:47
Jennifer wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 16:20
lunchstealer wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 03:09
Jennifer wrote:
08 Aug 2017, 22:45
Trump was an idiot to threaten "fire and fury" against NoKo, but Jong Un was even more idiotic by responding with a threat to attack Guam. What the hell does he hope to accomplish here?
You mean aside from destroying a naval base and an airfield that google earth shows stocked with several B-1s, a few B-52s, and a handful of Global Hawks?

The thing is that Un is crazy, but he's more traditionally strategic than bin Laden et al. He's not interested in knocking over a building that Americans are all proud of. He wants to knock some teeth out, not give us uselessly black eye.
Compared to total US military capability, Guam wouldn't even be knocking teeth out; more like giving us an infected hangnail on our non-dominant hand. (Not that it wouldn't be utterly awful for people actually on Guam, of course.) When the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, at least they had a somewhat reasonable hope of "Maybe this will completely knock the US Pacific fleet out of commission, thus leaving us to do as we please sans American interference." But even the best-case (from NK's perspective) scenario of hitting Guam won't do anything like that.
Guam is vitally important to the US military equation in East Asia because of its balance of stand off distance but still close enough to everything.

No doubt, but that doesn't mean the one-time destruction of the military hardware on it (as opposed to, the island itself is destroyed and no longer exists) will render the US military helpless and unable to do anything further. Taking out Guam and nothing else wouldn't be a knockout punch, merely a "seriously piss off the US" one.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Mo » 09 Aug 2017, 18:57

his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 09 Aug 2017, 21:10

Kolohe wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 14:12
lunchstealer wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 03:09
Jennifer wrote:
08 Aug 2017, 22:45
Trump was an idiot to threaten "fire and fury" against NoKo, but Jong Un was even more idiotic by responding with a threat to attack Guam. What the hell does he hope to accomplish here?
You mean aside from destroying a naval base and an airfield that google earth shows stocked with several B-1s, a few B-52s, and a handful of Global Hawks?

The thing is that Un is crazy, but he's more traditionally strategic than bin Laden et al. He's not interested in knocking over a building that Americans are all proud of. He wants to knock some teeth out, not give us uselessly black eye.
That was exactly the Japanese strategic thinking in 1941. It didn't work out in the medium run.
Sure, but I can imagine Un nuking Guam, killing over 100k, us having a horrific time operating against him, us having a horrific time getting relief to the survivors, DPRK still having 10+ warheads, and Korea and Japan shitting their pants and denying us the right to operate from their territory once the antiwar riots kill a few hundred. We can continue to bomb the shit out of them, but can we invade?

This is a Longshot for Kim, but it's kinda like Robert Deniro's last round of Russian Roulette in the Deer Hunter: better than the 100% chance of dying.

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Jennifer » 09 Aug 2017, 21:52

This is a Longshot for Kim, but it's kinda like Robert Deniro's last round of Russian Roulette in the Deer Hunter: better than the 100% chance of dying.
I haven't seen the Deer Hunter and thus don't get that specific analogy, but: even with the orange man-child in the White House, Kim only faces that "100% chance of dying" if he does something stupid like attack a US missile base. If all he wants to do is continue being the scumbag dictator of a shithole, his best bet is to STOP behaving in ways so awful that even longtime enabler China is telling him to knock it off. (In all seriousness: if I were Un, complete with sharing his sociopathic disregard for the well-being of anyone other than myself, I can afford to not give much of a shit about what the US says, but pissing off China is another matter altogether. I'd've found some face-saving way to pull back after the Chinese cut back on coal imports (IIRC) a few months ago - not gone ahead and pissed them off even more.)
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 09 Aug 2017, 21:56

As Shem pointed out, it may not appear to Kim that he has a choice. Lose the nukes and he's dead. If he nukes Guam, he's got a slim chance. If we Able Archer in his neighborhood, he might take the shot.

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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Jennifer » 09 Aug 2017, 21:59

By now, everyone who pays attention knows he has nukes; he has nothing more to gain (but quite a bit to lose) by continuing missile tests which even China has told him to quit.

It's like, you already know I have a gun and ammo, plus the willingness to use it; periodically shooting out of my window is not going to increase my personal safety, but might very well piss off enough people to make my personal situation worse.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by dhex » 09 Aug 2017, 22:00

Mo wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 18:57
So now it's a holy war. https://www1.cbn.com/thebrodyfile/archi ... g-un-rsquo
I'm pretty sure God intends to use cardiovascular disease
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by thoreau » 09 Aug 2017, 22:02

Saber rattling serves domestic purposes for him. Random peasants might be satisfied by stock footage of tests or whatever (if they even have TVs to see it on), but there's a class of people in the military who aren't top leadership (which is small enough and close enough that they can be bought, monitored, or coerced as needed) but will know whether or not stuff is actually being done, and their passion and enthusiasm matter.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Aresen » 09 Aug 2017, 22:08

thoreau wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 22:02
Saber rattling serves domestic purposes for him. Random peasants might be satisfied by stock footage of tests or whatever (if they even have TVs to see it on), but there's a class of people in the military who aren't top leadership (which is small enough and close enough that they can be bought, monitored, or coerced as needed) but will know whether or not stuff is actually being done, and their passion and enthusiasm matter.
If it hadn't been for that comment about TVs, I would not have been able to tell whether you were talking about the US or North Korea.
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Re: The Not-So- and All-Too-Real World of North Korea

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 09 Aug 2017, 22:13

Jennifer wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 21:59
By now, everyone who pays attention knows he has nukes; he has nothing more to gain (but quite a bit to lose) by continuing missile tests which even China has told him to quit.

It's like, you already know I have a gun and ammo, plus the willingness to use it; periodically shooting out of my window is not going to increase my personal safety, but might very well piss off enough people to make my personal situation worse.
It isn't expected that he will be able to mount a warheads on a ballistic missile until 2018. The minaturization will take the bombs from UPS truck-sized to porto-potty or smaller, small enough to put on a missile.

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