Dark Angel/the EMP thing

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Mo
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Re: Dark Angel/the EMP thing

Post by Mo » 16 Dec 2011, 00:18

And the Carrington event was the most powerful solar storm in, at least, the last 400-500 years, possibly longer. If we're not due for one in another 200 years or so, it would be silly to shield our existing infrastructure as it'll all be replaced by something else a couple of times over.
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Aresen
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Re: Dark Angel/the EMP thing

Post by Aresen » 16 Dec 2011, 00:29

Mo wrote:And the Carrington event was the most powerful solar storm in, at least, the last 400-500 years, possibly longer. If we're not due for one in another 200 years or so, it would be silly to shield our existing infrastructure as it'll all be replaced by something else a couple of times over.
?

I am questioning the 500 year time frame. I don't know how we would have been aware of a similar event prior to the development of the telegraph and the consequent appearance of long wires that effectively functioned as antennae. (If there is another effect of such an event that leaves other detectable traces, I am not aware of it. There are numerous cases in the literature of spectacular auroras going back centuries, but as interest in meteorological and astronomical phenomena was fairly sporadic prior to 1750, there is no way to say whether there was a similar auroral peak that was as widespread prior to the Carrington event.
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thoreau
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Re: Dark Angel/the EMP thing

Post by thoreau » 16 Dec 2011, 00:32

Even if we do know when the previous one was, we may not know what the distribution of times between events is. Then again, depending on the statistics of smaller events, it's possible that we might have a pretty good idea about the statistics of larger events. I'm not a solar physicist, so I can't say, I can just point out the possibilities.
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Aresen
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Re: Dark Angel/the EMP thing

Post by Aresen » 16 Dec 2011, 01:07

thoreau wrote:Even if we do know when the previous one was, we may not know what the distribution of times between events is. Then again, depending on the statistics of smaller events, it's possible that we might have a pretty good idea about the statistics of larger events. I'm not a solar physicist, so I can't say, I can just point out the possibilities.
I can see the statistical argument, but that only gives you a probability of such an event occurring in a specific time frame.

I would be persuaded that Mo is probably right if I saw something that gave:

1) The number of coronal mass ejections ('CMEs') that occur in an average year (or their approximate number and distribution over the ~11 year solar cycle.)
2) The distribution of the intensity of such events.
3) The most probable angle, relative to the plane of the Earth's orbit, for the path of a CME,
4) The width of the arc affected by a CME (this would probably be a function of the power of the event) and the intensity of the power distribution across that arc. (Was Earth dead center of the path of the CME in Carrington event or was the centre of the path X many million miles in another direction?)

Putting numbers to these could give me a handle on the statistical likelihood of another Carrington event. Given that the cost of another one is probably of the order $10T for North America alone, one could make a cost-benefit assessment of any preparations one might want to undertake.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

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Mo
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Re: Dark Angel/the EMP thing

Post by Mo » 16 Dec 2011, 08:26

Aresen wrote:?

I am questioning the 500 year time frame. I don't know how we would have been aware of a similar event prior to the development of the telegraph and the consequent appearance of long wires that effectively functioned as antennae. (If there is another effect of such an event that leaves other detectable traces, I am not aware of it. There are numerous cases in the literature of spectacular auroras going back centuries, but as interest in meteorological and astronomical phenomena was fairly sporadic prior to 1750, there is no way to say whether there was a similar auroral peak that was as widespread prior to the Carrington event.
Solar flares leave physical signs here on earth, so it's possible to compare well after the fact.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 7705008434
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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dbcooper
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Re: Dark Angel/the EMP thing

Post by dbcooper » 11 Jan 2012, 18:41

Slip inside a sleeping bag.

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Jennifer
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Re: Dark Angel/the EMP thing

Post by Jennifer » 01 Jun 2019, 19:30

Everything old becomes new again:
Why Are Right-Wingers So Obsessed With Electromagnetic Pulses?
A Trump executive order is the culmination of two decades of conservatives being fixated on EMP weapons.
[Skims article] Hmm. Still no mention of a Carrington event, which IMO is a far more plausible concern if your specific worry is "What if the electrical grid got fried?"
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Aresen
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Re: Dark Angel/the EMP thing

Post by Aresen » 01 Jun 2019, 19:58

Jennifer wrote:
01 Jun 2019, 19:30
Everything old becomes new again:
Why Are Right-Wingers So Obsessed With Electromagnetic Pulses?
A Trump executive order is the culmination of two decades of conservatives being fixated on EMP weapons.
[Skims article] Hmm. Still no mention of a Carrington event, which IMO is a far more plausible concern if your specific worry is "What if the electrical grid got fried?"
The story briefly mentions but does not name the Carrington event. ("In 1859, a solar superstorm set telegraph circuits ablaze around the world.")

I've thought a bit about the Carrington event since this thread and I am less concerned than I was seven years ago, mainly because I don't think the grid is as fragile as I thought at the time.

Also, I think with improved 'Solar Weather Monitoring', we would have enough time to shut down and isolate systems until the storm passed.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex

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Mo
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Re: Dark Angel/the EMP thing

Post by Mo » 03 Jun 2019, 08:34

If you're worried about your key fob not working, you can get a faraday cage bag for your key fob to protect against an EMP attack.

his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Dark Angel/the EMP thing

Post by Pham Nuwen » 03 Jun 2019, 10:14

Whoa! You guys bring up Dark Angel and dont post picks of Jessica Alba? What has become of this blog?
Goddamn libertarian message board. Hugh Akston

leave me to my mescaline smoothie in peace, please. dhex

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Jasper
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Re: Dark Angel/the EMP thing

Post by Jasper » 04 Jun 2019, 09:48

Jennifer wrote:
01 Jun 2019, 19:30
Everything old becomes new again:
Including this thread.
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