Iran (so far away)

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Mo
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Mo »

Jasper wrote:
13 Jan 2020, 15:25
Warren wrote:
12 Jan 2020, 10:39
By contrast this weeks 5th Col. (ep 167) with guest Noah Rothman, was a highly intelligent and well informed back and forth on Iran. At least for the first hour, until Moynihan showed up when it instantly went to shit.
Totes agree. Rothman's arguments gave my a lot to mull over.
So I listened to this episode and I’m still not sold. He says, if we pull out of Yemen or Iraq, Iran will mine the Straits and everyone will capitulate.

Also, he says that not intervening in Syria was a failure, but he assumes intervening would make things all happy, despite the failure in every other corner of the region where we meddled. He basically assumes the worst case scenario for policies he opposes and best case scenarios for the policies that he supports. We have history of what it looks like with a significantly lighter deployment of the region and a hostile Iran. We say we will guarantee sea lanes and if you do anything to prevent that, we will do Operation Preying Mantis II: Electric Boogaloo. So yeah, still not convinced.
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Warren
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Warren »

Mo wrote:
24 Jan 2020, 07:01
Jasper wrote:
13 Jan 2020, 15:25
Warren wrote:
12 Jan 2020, 10:39
By contrast this weeks 5th Col. (ep 167) with guest Noah Rothman, was a highly intelligent and well informed back and forth on Iran. At least for the first hour, until Moynihan showed up when it instantly went to shit.
Totes agree. Rothman's arguments gave my a lot to mull over.
So I listened to this episode and I’m still not sold. He says, if we pull out of Yemen or Iraq, Iran will mine the Straits and everyone will capitulate.

Also, he says that not intervening in Syria was a failure, but he assumes intervening would make things all happy, despite the failure in every other corner of the region where we meddled. He basically assumes the worst case scenario for policies he opposes and best case scenarios for the policies that he supports. We have history of what it looks like with a significantly lighter deployment of the region and a hostile Iran. We say we will guarantee sea lanes and if you do anything to prevent that, we will do Operation Preying Mantis II: Electric Boogaloo. So yeah, still not convinced.
I'm not sold either. But discussion was at a higher level than found elsewhere, i.e. this thread. Also contrast with last week's guest Miriam Elder who is the basest of PCness and the whole show was at the Jr High detention class level. The absence of Kmele to provide fireworks left it not even entertaining.
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Mo
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Re: Iran (so far away)

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Shocker of all shockers. It looks like the casus belli of the Soleimani assassination was incorrect and it was ISIS (whine Iranian proxies were also fighting) that killed the American contractor.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Aresen
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Re: Iran (so far away)

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Mo wrote:
07 Feb 2020, 17:14
Shocker of all shockers. It looks like the casus belli of the Soleimani assassination was incorrect and it was ISIS (whine Iranian proxies were also fighting) that killed the American contractor.
I refuse to believe that US intelligence services could get something wrong. :roll:
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Mo wrote:
07 Feb 2020, 17:14
Shocker of all shockers. It looks like the casus belli of the Soleimani assassination was incorrect and it was ISIS (whine Iranian proxies were also fighting) that killed the American contractor.
Link yo!
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Mo
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Mo »

his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Kolohe
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Re: Iran (so far away)

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I thought the US govt took out Solemani for a larger CV of work, not one particular incident. (And was ostensibly 'preventative' rather than retaliatory)
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Warren
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Warren »

Kolohe wrote:
08 Feb 2020, 12:16
I thought the US govt took out Solemani for a larger CV of work, not one particular incident. (And was ostensibly 'preventative' rather than retaliatory)
That was the story they told at the time as I recall.
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

I think that's probably true given that we've yet to hear the specific threats he was supposedly killed to prevent and Our Leader isn't one to shy away from taking credit even if doing so involved divulging classified intelligence. I think Trump was getting blowback of the "Well, are we just going to go around the world and kill all the bad actors out there?" sort and, rather like W.'s WMDs, felt the need to claim the strike was preemptive.

Then, too, whether it was actually ISIS or any other regional foe, Trump's not the sort to entertain a tentative hypothesis and then consider contrary evidence. He's more of a "Ready, Fire, Aim!" kinda guy. Someone in his crackerjack circle of advisors probably said "Maybe it was Solemani" and Trump decided "Solemani it is, then. Take him out!"

And, truth be told, it serves Solemani right for not being the sort of ruthless, bloodthirsty tyrant who wanted to rub elbows and chew the fat with Trump and discuss where the Tehran Trump Towers would go.

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Hugh Akston »

This'll come in handy in case the White House runs out of toilet paper.
The Senate on Thursday passed a resolution limiting President Donald Trump’s authority to attack Iran without congressional approval, delivering the president another bipartisan foreign-policy rebuke and flexing its constitutional power over military actions.
Kaine’s resolution requires the president to cease all hostilities targeting Iran within 30 days unless explicitly approved by Congress. It is expected to pass the House later this month, but Trump is likely to veto the measure. It needed only a simple majority to clear the Senate.
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Warren
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Re: Iran (so far away)

Post by Warren »

Hugh Akston wrote:
13 Feb 2020, 14:53
This'll come in handy in case the White House runs out of toilet paper.
The Senate on Thursday passed a resolution limiting President Donald Trump’s authority to attack Iran without congressional approval, delivering the president another bipartisan foreign-policy rebuke and flexing its constitutional power over military actions.
Kaine’s resolution requires the president to cease all hostilities targeting Iran within 30 days unless explicitly approved by Congress. It is expected to pass the House later this month, but Trump is likely to veto the measure. It needed only a simple majority to clear the Senate.
Show me the congress critter with the cojones to vote against a war that's already been started.
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