Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

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thoreau
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Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by thoreau »

Trump is talking about running in 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN27S01C

Now, there's obviously a huge Step 2:??? between Trump saying something and doing it, but he had the attention span to stick it out from his 2015 announcement to his 2016 win, and he does like holding rallies.

Assuming arterial blockage (or some other malady) doesn't complete its humanitarian task before 2024, will he actually run? Will he win the nomination? How will the GOP deal with him seeking the nomination? They've spent 4 years debasing themselves before him, and purging Never-Trumpers. They're allegedly terrified of his base. How will they now run against him? They're busy refusing to dispute his claims of election fraud right now, so how do they turn around and denounce him for saying stupid shit? Anyone who tries to run against him has 4 years of pro-Trump statements that can be thrown at them.
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Aresen
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by Aresen »

If the economy goes sideways between now and 2024 the GOP could win, with or without Trump.

Otherwise, Trump running again in 2024 is the Blues best hope of driving the turnout.

For the Trump base, I don't think a revelation that Trump turned over the codes in the football to Putin would turn them against him.
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thoreau
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by thoreau »

Aresen wrote: 11 Nov 2020, 22:44 For the Trump base, I don't think a revelation that Trump turned over the codes in the football to Putin would turn them against him.
Well, Hunter Biden had a laptop with emails, so, yeah, six of one, half a dozen of the other.
"saying 'socialism' where normies can hear it is wrapping a bunch of barbed wire around a bat, handing the bat to the GOP, and standing with your head in the strike zone."
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JD
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by JD »

I dunno, while Trump will certainly have a base of support in 2024, I also feel like being a one-term president kind of tags you with a "loser" badge, which the party may want to avoid. I would like to think that the party establishment might quietly work behind the scenes to prevent Trump from being the bull in the china shop again, but who knows.
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Number 6
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

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I'm not sure there's any non-Trump establishment left.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by Eric the .5b »

With Trump losing and the rest of the party doing fairly well, they may regenerate an establishment.

If not, they're fucked.
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thoreau
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by thoreau »

Eric the .5b wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 12:11 With Trump losing and the rest of the party doing fairly well, they may regenerate an establishment.

If not, they're fucked.
Are they fucked? Or are we?
"saying 'socialism' where normies can hear it is wrapping a bunch of barbed wire around a bat, handing the bat to the GOP, and standing with your head in the strike zone."
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lunchstealer
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by lunchstealer »

thoreau wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 12:48
Eric the .5b wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 12:11 With Trump losing and the rest of the party doing fairly well, they may regenerate an establishment.

If not, they're fucked.
Are they fucked? Or are we?
Why 'or'?
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by Eric the .5b »

thoreau wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 12:48
Eric the .5b wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 12:11 With Trump losing and the rest of the party doing fairly well, they may regenerate an establishment.

If not, they're fucked.
Are they fucked? Or are we?
Yes.
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
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Warren
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by Warren »

Number 6 wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 11:39 I'm not sure there's any non-Trump establishment left.
Sure there are! Just keep an eye on the woodwork. They'll start crawling out any day now.
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thoreau
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by thoreau »

Warren wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 14:13
Number 6 wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 11:39 I'm not sure there's any non-Trump establishment left.
Sure there are! Just keep an eye on the woodwork. They'll start crawling out any day now.
They'll start talking. It's not clear when they'll start mattering to the dumb motherfuckers who vote in GOP primaries.
"saying 'socialism' where normies can hear it is wrapping a bunch of barbed wire around a bat, handing the bat to the GOP, and standing with your head in the strike zone."
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Trump can be a candidate the rest of his life, which he'd probably enjoy more than having to pretend to be president every once in a while. Nothing but huge (excuse me, yuge) rallies, plenty of losers and suckers contributing to an endless campaign. He really can get much richer now just pretending to run... forever.

Meanwhile, it doesn't matter if the remaining Republican Party is completely Trumpisized or not. No viable candidate for 2024 will be able to do even preliminary or exploratory work without incurring Trump's wrath. He's going to be on OAN and on Fox (ratings, ratings, ratings) but, fortunately for the rest of us, he won't constantly be everywhere else.

Let's worry about 2022 and 2024 after a few months in 2021 of blissful quiet while we still try to survive the pandemic.
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JD
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by JD »

I think a lot of the answer may hinge on what Trump himself decides to do. Is he going to seek re-election, or is he going to go off and do something else, out of bitterness at the nation or boredom or some combination of things? So far it is too early to tell.

As for whether there is any counter-Trump Republican establishment, of course I'm hopeful, but I think Trump being out of office and stamped with the scarlet L of loserdom may empower people to speak out. While he was in power, you couldn't speak out against him without incurring his wrath and that of the establishment for daring to break ranks, but once he's not in power, there aren't the same ranks to break, and it may become more palatable to say, "You know, the guy was very unpopular, he got his ass handled to him by Joe fucking Biden, and now he's 78, maybe it's time to look elsewhere..." That's not to say they might not find somebody equally odious, of course.
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

JD wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 14:56 I think a lot of the answer may hinge on what Trump himself decides to do. Is he going to seek re-election, or is he going to go off and do something else, out of bitterness at the nation or boredom or some combination of things? So far it is too early to tell.

As for whether there is any counter-Trump Republican establishment, of course I'm hopeful, but I think Trump being out of office and stamped with the scarlet L of loserdom may empower people to speak out. While he was in power, you couldn't speak out against him without incurring his wrath and that of the establishment for daring to break ranks, but once he's not in power, there aren't the same ranks to break, and it may become more palatable to say, "You know, the guy was very unpopular, he got his ass handled to him by Joe fucking Biden, and now he's 78, maybe it's time to look elsewhere..." That's not to say they might not find somebody equally odious, of course.
But for the fact that Trump will continue to have enough sway in Republican politics to threaten primary challenges against those he sees as disloyal and/or pick the craziest bootlicker he can find to run for other seats, I'd agree. But it's going to take a while.
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Jennifer
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by Jennifer »

The GOP won't even admit that evolution and climate change are real; they DEFINITELY won't admit they spent 4+ years actively enabling a conman.
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thoreau
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by thoreau »

If the GOP keeps 51 Senate seats (a very plausible scenario) then I expect hearings on whether Hunter Biden's laptop had information about the Whitewater real estate deal and Vince Foster's murder.
"saying 'socialism' where normies can hear it is wrapping a bunch of barbed wire around a bat, handing the bat to the GOP, and standing with your head in the strike zone."
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Shem
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by Shem »

JD wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 14:56 but I think Trump being out of office and stamped with the scarlet L of loserdom may empower people to speak out.
We can entertain this notion when Trumpers acknowledge that he lost (as opposed to having the election "stolen" from them), or when the House has their gerrymandering broken up. Until then, to the most important constituency (Republican primary voters) he's not stamped with it.
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JD
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by JD »

FWIW, there are an increasing number of Republicans saying, in essence, "You lost, time to deal with it." (https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/12/politics ... index.html, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republica ... #Denounced)

Not all of them are what I'd call "important", but I think there's an interesting split between those who have an existence independent of Trump (mostly state elected officials and retired officials) and those who are definitely part of the Trumposphere (the WH press secretary supports the president's claims? gee, there's a surprise) and more or less owe their political existence to him. Time will tell which faction is ascendant, and while we may have slain Trump, Trumpism is still out there.
I sort of feel like a sucker about aspiring to be intellectually rigorous when I could just go on twitter and say capitalism causes space herpes and no one will challenge me on it. - Hugh Akston
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Jennifer
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by Jennifer »

JD wrote: 12 Nov 2020, 16:59 while we may have slain Trump, Trumpism is still out there.
That's what scares me the most. What ultimately saved us from Trump this time was Trump's own incompetence (and utter lack of social skills or concern for same --- like, if you want to win Arizona, you shouldn't insult their native son John McCain, and also where the Navahos are concerned, when they request PPE and other supplies to deal with covid-19, ignoring them altogether would've been better than sending them body bags, as actually happened).

My concern is, what happens when a Republican who is actually competent decides to tap into Trumpism. Even America's changing demographics and the GOP's increasing minority status won't save us, between the electoral college and gerrymandering: of the first five presidential elections this millennium, the Republicans only won the popular vote once, yet won three out of five presidential elections regardless.
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JD
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Re: Calling 2024 for DEAR GOD NO!!!!

Post by JD »

I'm seeing stories that Trump's flirtation with running in 2024 is paralyzing the normal feeling-out process for candidates: nobody wants to muddle the party's message or antagonize Trump if he ends up running again (or winning!) but they also don't want to be caught flat-footed if he doesn't run.
I sort of feel like a sucker about aspiring to be intellectually rigorous when I could just go on twitter and say capitalism causes space herpes and no one will challenge me on it. - Hugh Akston
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