Revealed preferences time

If a COVID-19 vaccine comes out, when would you take it (assume covered by insurance and available)?

Day 1
6
35%
After a month
6
35%
After 6 months
3
18%
After a year
1
6%
After 2 years
0
No votes
Longer
0
No votes
Only if required
0
No votes
I wouldn’t even if required
1
6%
 
Total votes: 17

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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by Pham Nuwen »

I've only seen something from ncbi concerning high blood pressure in post-covid patients. Less lung capacity now so their hearts are working harder. No idea on numbers. Our transplant pool was basically destroyed in March/April so I don't even know about the claim that 15-30% of vented patients were going to need new kidneys. Lot of those peeps died already. I think we've done about 4 transplants since March. From an original pool of around 40.
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lunchstealer
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by lunchstealer »

Pham Nuwen wrote: 10 Aug 2020, 20:59 I've only seen something from ncbi concerning high blood pressure in post-covid patients. Less lung capacity now so their hearts are working harder. No idea on numbers. Our transplant pool was basically destroyed in March/April so I don't even know about the claim that 15-30% of vented patients were going to need new kidneys. Lot of those peeps died already. I think we've done about 4 transplants since March. From an original pool of around 40.
Well with kidneys you can manage a lot of people in the needs-new-kidneys category with dialysis almost indefinitely. Certainly on a years term. Worst cases though, even dialysis is buying you very little time.

or so is my understanding which is not super informed other than having had a friend on dialysis.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by Pham Nuwen »

You're on borrowed time with dialysis, yes. Some people last years and years. Others not so much. Shrug.
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lunchstealer
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by lunchstealer »

Pham Nuwen wrote: 10 Aug 2020, 23:21 You're on borrowed time with dialysis, yes. Some people last years and years. Others not so much. Shrug.
Even with a transplant it's still pretty borrowed.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by Pham Nuwen »

10 to 20 years isn't so much borrowed time as a new norm. Shrug.
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JasonL
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by JasonL »

I do not trust the CDC to get much right. I do not trust tge authoritarian states to even bother with risk calculus or to reveal if it goes wrong. If there is broad consensus among non authoritarian non CDC agencies about one I’d probably go a couple of months. Unlikely I’d go earlier.
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Highway
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by Highway »

I think a lot depends on where it comes from. For instance, if it's from Germany, where they don't appear to have the same kind of political pressure to rush through a vaccine to make Merkel look like a savior, then I'm probably a bit less concerned about it. If it's from Britain or the US, I'm a lot more skeptical about any certification process (and note that until Trump's gutting of the federal civil service, I'd probably be a lot more trusting of processes through the FDA in a similar circumstance. But one of Trump's big efforts through his whole presidency has been to replace competence with bootlicking. Or even with straight up incompetence. It's very hard for me to trust anything that has any whiff of a high-level priority from a US Federal agency right now).
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Highway
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by Highway »

And by the way, there's no fucking way I'm taking some Russian vaccine.
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lunchstealer
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by lunchstealer »

Yeah order of operations is EU, UK or other non-EU European country or Japan/RoK/similar (I'd put Japan higher but they're just not a biotech hub so ?), US, ............ , China but then it's a long wait to see what the US and Europe report, same with India or Brazil type country, ......... , just going ahead and intentionally getting it to get immunity, ........... , setting myself on fire, Nigerian etc vaccine, ................ , SMOD, literally nothing from Russian medicine is going into my body because it's basically communist incompetence + oligarchic feudalism + outright national-greatness-is-out-of-our-reach-so-all-that's-left-is-to-weaken-all-rivals maliciousness.
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Mo
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by Mo »

Highway wrote: 11 Aug 2020, 09:17 I think a lot depends on where it comes from. For instance, if it's from Germany, where they don't appear to have the same kind of political pressure to rush through a vaccine to make Merkel look like a savior, then I'm probably a bit less concerned about it. If it's from Britain or the US, I'm a lot more skeptical about any certification process (and note that until Trump's gutting of the federal civil service, I'd probably be a lot more trusting of processes through the FDA in a similar circumstance. But one of Trump's big efforts through his whole presidency has been to replace competence with bootlicking. Or even with straight up incompetence. It's very hard for me to trust anything that has any whiff of a high-level priority from a US Federal agency right now).
This. Though I'd be more confident about UK. Ever since Boris got it they seemed to take everything a bit more seriously. That said, there is a very strong urge to get back to normal in the UK, so that, more than make Boris look good, would concern me more about corner cutting there.
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Have the Brits done anything brash and hurriedly since the Falklands war? Brash, sure: Brexit, which took fucking forever. But hurriedly?

If the people doing the research are Oxford or Cambridge dons and not National Health hacks, I'd have a level of confidence pretty close to Germany.
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dead_elvis
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by dead_elvis »

Highway wrote: 11 Aug 2020, 10:50 And by the way, there's no fucking way I'm taking some Russian vaccine.
Overheard on the internet:

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Q: Wait, what happened with Sputniks I through IV?
A: Quiet, idiot. You don’t want to end up like Putin’s other four children, do you?
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Mo
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by Mo »

D.A. Ridgely wrote: 11 Aug 2020, 21:51 Have the Brits done anything brash and hurriedly since the Falklands war? Brash, sure: Brexit, which took fucking forever. But hurriedly?

If the people doing the research are Oxford or Cambridge dons and not National Health hacks, I'd have a level of confidence pretty close to Germany.
Brexit was pretty hurried. They filed Article 50 without any fucking clue what the final deal would look like. And in the grand scheme of things, 2 years to completely reorganize their trade, immigration and how to deal with the majority of their overseas nationals is pretty damned hurried.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Mo wrote: 12 Aug 2020, 00:54
D.A. Ridgely wrote: 11 Aug 2020, 21:51 Have the Brits done anything brash and hurriedly since the Falklands war? Brash, sure: Brexit, which took fucking forever. But hurriedly?

If the people doing the research are Oxford or Cambridge dons and not National Health hacks, I'd have a level of confidence pretty close to Germany.
Brexit was pretty hurried. They filed Article 50 without any fucking clue what the final deal would look like. And in the grand scheme of things, 2 years to completely reorganize their trade, immigration and how to deal with the majority of their overseas nationals is pretty damned hurried.
Yeah, I suppose so. I guess I just focused on the repeated extensions, but you're right, it was a huge undertaking. So, having lived through some of it, how well do you think they did? I don't mean the decision; just the implementation.
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Mo
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Re: Revealed preferences time

Post by Mo »

The implementation has been pretty poor, there's still a ton of uncertainty and there aren't really any solid plans of moving forward. The proof is in the pudding, to be fair, but right now everything seems fine because it's all been a bunch of "maintain status quo until we figure it out". That said, I have heard from folks who were Europeans living in the UK that there were some fuckups and there's a lot of uncertainty for Brits living in Europe if there will be reciprocity between NHS and local health providers. COVID put a lot of that on the backburner, but the drop dead date is coming up pretty soon.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex
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