Random covid-19 observations

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dbcooper
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

Post by dbcooper »

LOL, god damn it.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Awesome. Truly the dankest of timelines. Truly.
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JasonL
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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Hahahaaa. You know that media accuracy chart? This has to take NPR on a journey south.

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Warren
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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JasonL wrote:
03 Jun 2020, 16:48
Hahahaaa. You know that media accuracy chart? This has to take NPR on a journey south.
Meh. They'll just get a different intern to do their twitters.
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thoreau
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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Apparently the virus is still out there, and numbers of new cases are higher than ever in many states, but attention is focused elsewhere.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... OFCN7V0mjU
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

Post by Pham Nuwen »

thoreau wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 00:05
Apparently the virus is still out there, and numbers of new cases are higher than ever in many states, but attention is focused elsewhere.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... OFCN7V0mjU
Yeah. I can believe that. Cant say I've seen an increase in cases though.
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thoreau
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

Post by thoreau »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 00:29
thoreau wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 00:05
Apparently the virus is still out there, and numbers of new cases are higher than ever in many states, but attention is focused elsewhere.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... OFCN7V0mjU
Yeah. I can believe that. Cant say I've seen an increase in cases though.
Colorado isn't on the list of states with increases, so it makes sense that you wouldn't see it.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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Cases are spiking in Texas, but deaths are slowly, unsteadily descending. As I watch, Nate Silvers is going slowly mad, looking at the stats and trying to work out the reality from incomplete information.
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Jadagul
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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"Cases are spiking but deaths are declining" is easy to explain as long as it only lasts a couple weeks. It's after that two-week-or-so point that it gets really confusing.

(But it's also confusing that we're rolling the entire country together into one set of numbers.)

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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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And now we've got the WHO saying you're almost certainly not going to catch the virus from someone who is asymptomatic. Which would be great if it were true and we could trust it.

My wife wants to go on a family road trip up to Wyoming for a couple weeks and at this point I'd really like to do some traveling on my own, not to mention get the rest of the family out of the house during the day.

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thoreau
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

Post by thoreau »

Jadagul wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 01:28
"Cases are spiking but deaths are declining" is easy to explain as long as it only lasts a couple weeks. It's after that two-week-or-so point that it gets really confusing.
Not necessarily. If cases are spiking among low-risk groups, but high-risk groups are taking better precautions, then deaths could still decline.

Also, it appears that the WHO announcement was about people who never develop symptoms, which is different from people who have yet to develop symptoms. Those who are infected but never develop symptoms are asymptomatic, while those who are infected and will develop symptoms are pre-symptomatic. The announcement doesn't say that pre-symptomatic people are safe.
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Mo
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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D.A. Ridgely wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 01:38
And now we've got the WHO saying you're almost certainly not going to catch the virus from someone who is asymptomatic. Which would be great if it were true and we could trust it.

My wife wants to go on a family road trip up to Wyoming for a couple weeks and at this point I'd really like to do some traveling on my own, not to mention get the rest of the family out of the house during the day.
Yes, but what the WHO is counting as asymptomatic in that study is not what a normal person would consider asymptomatic. The WHO specifically excludes those who are pre-symptomatic and those who have very mild symptoms (where they are not clinically asymptomatic, but the layperson would think they are asymptomatic).
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

Post by Eric the .5b »

Jadagul wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 01:28
"Cases are spiking but deaths are declining" is easy to explain as long as it only lasts a couple weeks. It's after that two-week-or-so point that it gets really confusing.

(But it's also confusing that we're rolling the entire country together into one set of numbers.)
You can find state numbers, but more generally, I was given to understand that had to do with the increased ability to test.
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dbcooper
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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D.A. Ridgely wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 01:38
And now we've got the WHO saying you're almost certainly not going to catch the virus from someone who is asymptomatic. Which would be great if it were true and we could trust it.

My wife wants to go on a family road trip up to Wyoming for a couple weeks and at this point I'd really like to do some traveling on my own, not to mention get the rest of the family out of the house during the day.
Or pre-symptomatic! That sounds like some bullshit!
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Jadagul
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

Post by Jadagul »

Eric the .5b wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 05:57
Jadagul wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 01:28
"Cases are spiking but deaths are declining" is easy to explain as long as it only lasts a couple weeks. It's after that two-week-or-so point that it gets really confusing.

(But it's also confusing that we're rolling the entire country together into one set of numbers.)
You can find state numbers, but more generally, I was given to understand that had to do with the increased ability to test.
You can find state numbers, but people often look at national numbers, and those can hide a lot of variability.

And oh, yeah, I was forgetting about increased testing but that matters too. As does Thoreau's point about Simpson's paradox.

But it's also the case that if things start getting worse again, you'd expect to see that in case numbers well before you see it in deaths.

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dbcooper
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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dbcooper wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 06:19
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 01:38
And now we've got the WHO saying you're almost certainly not going to catch the virus from someone who is asymptomatic. Which would be great if it were true and we could trust it.

My wife wants to go on a family road trip up to Wyoming for a couple weeks and at this point I'd really like to do some traveling on my own, not to mention get the rest of the family out of the house during the day.
Or pre-symptomatic! That sounds like some bullshit!
Might have misread that one. It was during breakfast.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

Post by Pham Nuwen »

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... #dashboard

At the risk of annoying everyone with my hangup, deaths are still going up. We just arent calling it covid deaths. Which is strange to me.

Also we still arent counting New York in most numbers as well as it taking 1 to 8 weeks to get accurate numbers.

Theres a lot of wish washy stuff out there and I only believe deaths above the normal trend. And it's a lot o' death.
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Aresen
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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Pham Nuwen wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 08:55
Theres a lot of wish washy stuff out there and I only believe deaths above the normal trend. And it's a lot o' death.
Are killings by cops up or down?
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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"Fucking qualia." -Hugh Akston

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Aresen
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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"Cardiac Arrest" = his heart stopped. That kinda happens when you die.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Aresen wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 11:03
Pham Nuwen wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 08:55
Theres a lot of wish washy stuff out there and I only believe deaths above the normal trend. And it's a lot o' death.
Are killings by cops up or down?
Honestly? Probably down.
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 11:57
Aresen wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 11:03
Pham Nuwen wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 08:55
Theres a lot of wish washy stuff out there and I only believe deaths above the normal trend. And it's a lot o' death.
Are killings by cops up or down?
Honestly? Probably down.
Sometimes death by cop takes several weeks to become symptomatic, so we'll have to wait and see.

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nicole
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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Honestly feel at this point I went really wrong in life by not just becoming this guy

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Kolohe
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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nicole wrote:
09 Jun 2020, 11:29

The alternate conspiracy theory i read is that people didn’t think it was entirely constitutional for him to have this presidency, a third term, so this is impeachment by other means.
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Painboy
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Re: Random covid-19 observations

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That is a lot of vices to pile up.

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