Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Hugh Akston »

I’m growing increasingly skeptical that we will ever get an accurate picture of this pandemic.
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JasonL
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Agree. You can already see how narratives will form up. In particular I think if rates of death differ largely from estimates there will be huge fight over the “what really happened” scenario. It’s like the bailouts and stimulus from 2008. You will never convince anyone who supporters it that the world wasn’t going to end. You will never convince people hostile to it that the real risk was that dire. Post hoc it will be counter factual imaginings.

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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

I am really not looking forward to the CDC, PHS, NIH, AMA, and various statisticians claiming to have reasonable estimates of the body count. Especially if their estimates have overlapping error bars.
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Hugh Akston
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Hugh Akston »

Dead people are the least of my concerns. There is a fairly narrow range of causes of death associated with Covid complications. Once this all blows over you can pretty easily move corpses around until your figures fit your preconceived narrative.

My concern is the live ones. Severe cases who take up hospital beds are relatively easy to count, but we'll never know how many mild and asymptotes cases there were, even with nearly a thousand celebrities and lawmakers being tested worldwide.
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nicole
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Hugh Akston wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 10:21
I’m growing increasingly skeptical that we will ever get an accurate picture of this pandemic.
lol
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

If we do this right with lockdowns and such, then it will look like nothing happened and we wasted our time. If we do this wrong, it might still look like nothing happened and we wasted our time. I really don't know how to reconcile that to people.
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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

JasonL wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 10:58
It’s like the bailouts and stimulus from 2008.
It's going to be so much worse than that. Maybe worse than the New Deal.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by dead_elvis »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 12:19
If we do this right with lockdowns and such, then it will look like nothing happened and we wasted our time. If we do this wrong, it might still look like nothing happened and we wasted our time. I really don't know how to reconcile that to people.
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Ellie
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Ellie »

Warren wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 12:22
Maybe worse than the New Deal.
There's probably a joke to be made about Dorothea Lange photography meeting the selfie era, but I'm way too tired to get there.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Hugh Akston »

Ellie wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 13:20
Warren wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 12:22
Maybe worse than the New Deal.
There's probably a joke to be made about Dorothea Lange photography meeting the selfie era, but I'm way too tired to get there.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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JasonL wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 10:58
Agree. You can already see how narratives will form up. In particular I think if rates of death differ largely from estimates there will be huge fight over the “what really happened” scenario. It’s like the bailouts and stimulus from 2008. You will never convince anyone who supporters it that the world wasn’t going to end. You will never convince people hostile to it that the real risk was that dire. Post hoc it will be counter factual imaginings.
If there is one certainty about a crisis it's that half the "undeniable facts" people believe during it turn out to be wrong after it is over. Unfortunately some people will continue to act as those things were true even after it's over because it fits whatever happens to be the narrative they like.

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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

I got sent an email from work. They want me to swing to other facilites as needed. But in a pharmacy role. Grrrrrrrrr.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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The US has now passed China* in total reported cases:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

Is this where Americans get together and chant "USA! USA! WE'RE #1" ?

*With the obvious caveat that China's numbers are probably bogus.
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Jennifer
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jennifer »

Seen quoted and linked elsewhere -- I can't actually read WaPo stories myself, due to lack of subscription:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... esucitate/




Hospitals consider universal do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patients
Worry that ‘all hands’ responses may expose doctors and nurses to infection prompts debate about prioritizing the survival of the many over the one

Hospitals on the front lines of the pandemic are engaged in a heated private debate over a calculation few have encountered in their lifetimes — how to weigh the “save at all costs” approach to resuscitating a dying patient against the real danger of exposing doctors and nurses to the contagion of coronavirus.

- The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment — such as masks, gowns and gloves — may be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient “codes,” and their heart or breathing stops.

- Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago has been discussing a do-not-resuscitate policy for infected patients, regardless of the wishes of the patient or their family members — a wrenching decision to prioritize the lives of the many over the one.

- Richard Wunderink, one of Northwestern’s intensive-care medical directors, said hospital administrators would have to ask Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker for help in clarifying state law and whether it permits the policy shift.

- The University of Washington Medical Center in Seattle, one of the country’s major hot spots for infections, is dealing with the problem by severely limiting the number of responders to a contagious patient in cardiac or respiratory arrest.

- The new protocols are part of a larger rationing of lifesaving procedures and equipment — including ventilators — that is quickly becoming a reality here as in other parts of the world battling the virus.

- Wunderink said all of the most critically ill patients in the 12 days since they had their first coronavirus case have experienced steady declines rather than a sudden crash. That allowed medical staff to talk with families about the risk to workers and how having to put on protective gear delays a response and decreases the chance of saving someone’s life.

- When a code blue alarm is activated, it signals that a patient has gone into cardiopulmonary arrest and typically all available personnel — usually somewhere around eight but sometimes as many as 30 people — rush into the room to begin live-saving procedures without which the person would almost certainly perish.

- Bioethicist Scott Halpern at the University of Pennsylvania is the author of one widely circulated model guideline being considered by many hospitals. Halpern’s document calls for two physicians, the one directly taking care of a patient and one who is not, to sign off on do-not-resuscitate orders. They must document the reason for the decision, and the family must be informed but does not have to agree.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Aresen »

"The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few."
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Hugh Akston »

Interesting article about the process and bottlenecks of testing.
In other words, the bottleneck slowing down test results is not a technical one. It’s about logistics and supplies, Smith said. In the earliest days, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was conducting all the COVID-19 testing in-house so they could monitor quality control, and they’ve been slow to authorize new labs to use their test kits. As more labs came online, though, they began running low on everything from the swabs they stick up people’s noses to the reagents that power the PCR’s chemical reactions to the human lab techs who actually do the tests, Smith and Trepka told me. It’s like a traffic jam.

Compare that to South Korea, where people can get their results in about a day. There, the government had been stockpiling the necessary chemicals for years after COVID-19’s cousin MERS briefly hit that country in 2015. That helped the country move quickly to approve and decentralize testing as soon as COVID-19 arrived.
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JasonL
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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I posted a gripe when that hit Facebook. It’s not “logistics and supply” it’s very clearly a regulatory fuck up and supply.

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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Which once again pushes one of my buttons. I get why you'd want independent quality control for products imported, say, from China, let alone from less developed nations, but if the Germans in particular have decided some drug or piece of medical equipment is safe and effective, there's a 99.9999999999% chance the FDA is going to approve it, too, but it will still take years doing it.

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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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D.A. Ridgely wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 21:42
Which once again pushes one of my buttons. I get why you'd want independent quality control for products imported, say, from China, let alone from less developed nations, but if the Germans in particular have decided some drug or piece of medical equipment is safe and effective, there's a 99.9999999999% chance the FDA is going to approve it, too, but it will still take years doing it.
I've said for a long time now that we should free ride on other countries' medical regulations. Come up with a list of countries that we deem to have sound regulatory agencies, and say that if one of them approves a drug or medical device then it is automatically approved here. Our FDA can be replaced by one part-time guy who periodically checks the websites of the countries in question and then updates our lists accordingly.

In my ideal world, if he needs full-time hours he can spend the rest of his time stamping "Denied" on paperwork requesting farm subsidies or corporate bailouts.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Aresen »

thoreau wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 21:55
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 21:42
Which once again pushes one of my buttons. I get why you'd want independent quality control for products imported, say, from China, let alone from less developed nations, but if the Germans in particular have decided some drug or piece of medical equipment is safe and effective, there's a 99.9999999999% chance the FDA is going to approve it, too, but it will still take years doing it.
I've said for a long time now that we should free ride on other countries' medical regulations. Come up with a list of countries that we deem to have sound regulatory agencies, and say that if one of them approves a drug or medical device then it is automatically approved here. Our FDA can be replaced by one part-time guy who periodically checks the websites of the countries in question and then updates our lists accordingly.
That will never happen. The FDA has pinned its reputation on the refusal to approve thalidomide in the 1960s, when other countries (including Germany and Canada) approved it. They are going to wear that as armor against outside approval until the heat death of the universe.
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thoreau
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

Having gotten its ass handed to it by the Union Army in the 19th century, and then by SCOTUS and the feds in the 20th century, Mississippi decides to try losing a fight against biology in the 21st century.

https://www.mississippifreepress.com/mi ... id-19.html

Oh, the irony of creationists winning Darwin Awards.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by JD »

Aresen wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 22:06
That will never happen. The FDA has pinned its reputation on the refusal to approve thalidomide in the 1960s, when other countries (including Germany and Canada) approved it. They are going to wear that as armor against outside approval until the heat death of the universe.
Plus you will never lose in the court of public opinion by being more restrictive than anybody else. There are also regular outbreaks of "European regulatory agencies have banned them, but the FDA still allows these 50 DANGEROUS TOXIC CHEMICALS in our food and medicine!" Never mind that most of them don't actually seem to be all that dangerous, or that there are also certain chemicals which the Europeans allow in food and medicine that the FDA doesn't...
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Dangerman »

What is going to happen/is happening in Africa? I can't really find any news, even on international services like the BBC and Al Jazeera...

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Aresen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Aresen »

Dangerman wrote:
27 Mar 2020, 12:20
What is going to happen/is happening in Africa? I can't really find any news, even on international services like the BBC and Al Jazeera...
This Youtube live tracking channel has some mention of Africa, but there isn't much info:
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ibn-Battuta
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jasper »

JD wrote:
27 Mar 2020, 11:42
Aresen wrote:
26 Mar 2020, 22:06
That will never happen. The FDA has pinned its reputation on the refusal to approve thalidomide in the 1960s, when other countries (including Germany and Canada) approved it. They are going to wear that as armor against outside approval until the heat death of the universe.
Plus you will never lose in the court of public opinion by being more restrictive than anybody else. There are also regular outbreaks of "European regulatory agencies have banned them, but the FDA still allows these 50 DANGEROUS TOXIC CHEMICALS in our food and medicine!" Never mind that most of them don't actually seem to be all that dangerous, or that there are also certain chemicals which the Europeans allow in food and medicine that the FDA doesn't...
Most of the world's regulatory agencies allow vegetable carbon as a color additive to food. The FDA does not. So we have to rely on a blend of FD&C dyes to get black rather than use, what is in essence, burnt toast.

But it can go the other way, too. The EU has a yuge issue with potential GM contamination. The bigger food manufacturers in the US, not so much, except for their niche brands that cater to the Whole Foods crowd.
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