Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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dead_elvis
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by dead_elvis »

Yeah hearing all the pro-lifers suddenly cheering for preventable death is something I'm surprised I haven't seen more of in the meme-o-sphere.
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thoreau
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

What happened to #AllLivesMatter?
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

It has to have at least crossed Queen Elizabeth's mind now that she might outlive Charles, which is frankly the best chance they have of hanging on to the monarchy for much longer.

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JasonL
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by JasonL »

I’m down with equity as collateral for guaranteed loans with some interest. I’m not good with the government just gets equity as a condition of cash at all.

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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

My eyes have rolled out of my head six times this morning alone at all the 1,000,000+ dead predictions.

I've got $10,000 cash money says the United States death toll from COVID-19 Doesn't top 200,000 by December 21st 2020.

Who wants a piece of that?
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Aresen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Aresen »

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
25 Mar 2020, 14:44
It has to have at least crossed Queen Elizabeth's mind now that she might outlive Charles, which is frankly the best chance they have of hanging on to the monarchy for much longer.
Best case is that Chuck pops it first, then Liz shortly after, while Billy 5 is still relatively popular.
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JasonL
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by JasonL »

How to put this - we kinda should care about the increase in total deaths in the time of corona more that the raw deaths attributed to corona because, um, there’s a reasonable set of cases that would be um substituting causes but still dying.

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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

JasonL wrote:
25 Mar 2020, 17:10
How to put this - we kinda should care about the increase in total deaths in the time of corona more that the raw deaths attributed to corona because, um, there’s a reasonable set of cases that would be um substituting causes but still dying.
How you gonna measure that?
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Kolohe
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Kolohe »

Deaths Over Replacement advanced stats
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Jennifer
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jennifer »

Or death rates for non-corona causes compared to the previous year. Though I imagine death rates from car accidents will go down regardless, due to car use overall going down. Still, there will be people like "Guy has bad car accident, and ordinarily he would've survived with proper prompt medical care -- only he couldn't get it, because the ventilator and ICU bed he needed were being used by a covid-19 patient instead." THAT guy's death won't be counted as a coronavirus fatality -- but it is one, all the same.
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thoreau
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

Jennifer wrote:
25 Mar 2020, 17:19
Or death rates for non-corona causes compared to the previous year. Though I imagine death rates from car accidents will go down regardless, due to car use overall going down. Still, there will be people like "Guy has bad car accident, and ordinarily he would've survived with proper prompt medical care -- only he couldn't get it, because the ventilator and ICU bed he needed were being used by a covid-19 patient instead." THAT guy's death won't be counted as a coronavirus fatality -- but it is one, all the same.
Those things can be corrected for in the statistical analysis.

Honestly, deaths due to respiratory disease this year vs. last will be a decent starting proxy. Maybe make some small correction for how many people were in each age bracket this year vs last, but that won't cause a massive change in the estimate.
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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

thoreau wrote:
25 Mar 2020, 17:48
Jennifer wrote:
25 Mar 2020, 17:19
Or death rates for non-corona causes compared to the previous year. Though I imagine death rates from car accidents will go down regardless, due to car use overall going down. Still, there will be people like "Guy has bad car accident, and ordinarily he would've survived with proper prompt medical care -- only he couldn't get it, because the ventilator and ICU bed he needed were being used by a covid-19 patient instead." THAT guy's death won't be counted as a coronavirus fatality -- but it is one, all the same.
Those things can be corrected for in the statistical analysis.

Honestly, deaths due to respiratory disease this year vs. last will be a decent starting proxy. Maybe make some small correction for how many people were in each age bracket this year vs last, but that won't cause a massive change in the estimate.
I'd have to see stable data going back a couple decades. My suspicion is these numbers are volatile one year to the next. I think it's neigh on impossible to come up with a number that you could have any confidence in.
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thoreau
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

Confidence to what degree? Every estimate has finite precision, but that doesn't mean that reasonably accurate estimation is impossible.
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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

Does the virus get credit for reducing the number of deaths by auto accident?
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thoreau
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

FWIW, Warren, the CDC has long kept weekly records of deaths from influenza and/or pneumonia. They're good at this.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview ... 9281356004
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2

(Yes, COVID-19 is different from influenza, but they know how to track deaths due to respiratory illness, is the bottom line.)

And actuaries know how many people in whatever age bracket die in a given year. If we see elevated deaths in whatever age bracket, and elevated numbers of deaths from respiratory illness, it won't be hard to estimate the elevated death toll due to COVID-19 and related factors in each cohort.
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thoreau
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

Warren wrote:
25 Mar 2020, 18:27
Does the virus get credit for reducing the number of deaths by auto accident?
Sure, Warren. We'll pat the virus on the head and give it a sticker.
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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

How do you differentiate between "additional deaths attributed to corona" and "additional deaths attributed to bad policy put in place in reaction to corona"?
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thoreau
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

Warren wrote:
25 Mar 2020, 18:30
How do you differentiate between "additional deaths attributed to corona" and "additional deaths attributed to bad policy put in place in reaction to corona"?
Well, the bottom line is that it will be a death due to the situation that this disease put us in, not a death due to appendicitis or melanoma or any of the numerous other things that people die of.

Look, there will obviously be hard questions and things worth poring over, but that doesn't mean that it will be impossible to know anything about anything in even the broadest outlines.
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Mo
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Mo »

The overloaded ICUs are going to lead to a number of non-corona deaths because people that would normally be able to get an ICU bed and saved are more likely to die. It’s also entirely likely there will be fewer flu deaths due to social distancing and better hygiene. Also, all the million+ death stats are explicitly worst case scenarios. I wouldn’t bet on them happening because they’re 95th or higher percentile estimates.
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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

Mo wrote:
25 Mar 2020, 19:29
Also, all the million+ death stats are explicitly worst case scenarios. I wouldn’t bet on them happening because they’re 95th or higher percentile estimates.
That's what I want everybody to appreciate.
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Mo
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Mo »

Except that’s what the stories say. I just googled a NYT article on it and it literally said “without action by governments and individuals” related to that projection.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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OFF Coronavirus's sake!!

Post by Aresen »

OFFS:

G7 ministers spike joint statement on COVID-19 after U.S. demands it be called 'Wuhan virus'
Any hope of G7 foreign ministers releasing a joint statement on the fight against COVID-19 was killed today after the U.S. insisted the document refer to it as the "Wuhan virus."

As originally reported by Der Spiegel, and according to sources with knowledge of the situation, when U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo insisted the novel coronavirus be referred to by the name of the Chinese city where the outbreak first appeared, ministers from other countries refused to agree.

G7 foreign ministers had planned to meet in Pittsburgh this week to discuss a range of issues. However, the in-person meeting was swapped for a video conference because of the pandemic.

According to one source, bureaucrats from each country had hoped to come up with a joint statement about the pandemic's impact ahead of the meeting.

Those talks did not get very far, and a proposed statement never reached politicians ahead of the teleconference.

During the meeting itself, however, one of the ministers revisited the idea of issuing a joint statement.

Sources say that's when Pompeo said the U.S. wanted to refer to COVID-19 as the "Wuhan virus."

That was a red line for several ministers, and no joint statement was agreed upon or released.
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dbcooper
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by dbcooper »

This website tracks European weekly mortality rates:

http://www.euromomo.eu/
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Jennifer
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jennifer »

US death toll at 1,032, and 68,489 cases overall, with 394 recovered. Since it's 3:30 a.m. eastern time as I type this, I'm sure the number will be higher by the time y'all see it in the morning.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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Mo
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Mo »

Here’s some evidence that there’s an undercount in deaths. One town in Italy has 120 more deaths this year than the long term average, only 30 were attributed to COVID.

his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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