Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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lunchstealer
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by lunchstealer »

nicole wrote:
23 Mar 2020, 16:10
Ellie wrote:
23 Mar 2020, 16:06
Somebody I follow on Twitter has COVID-19 symptoms, albeit fairly mild, and was stressed about not getting tested because he thought if he could confirm he had it, he'd feel able to resume going out in public once he'd recovered. Though I suppose that assumes having it confers immunity thereafter -- has that been established yet?
No, it hasn’t slash length of immunity has definitely not been.
However short-to-medium term immunity is assumed, and the only anecdotal cases of re-occurrence are suspected to be re-lapse of the original infection rather than a new infection. But that's preliminary, so it's not KNOWN known.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Eric the .5b »

CorvidActNow.org has some depressing estimates:

Image


And of course, that whole capacity estimate is just based on beds, not sick medical personnel, number of ventilators, etc.

This is going to suck hard, and into the summer.
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

But then, of course, the virus could mutate.

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dead_elvis
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by dead_elvis »

This is also not great news, though not particularly surprising: Hong Kong appeared to have the coronavirus under control, then it let its guard down
But this latest lesson may be a bitter pill to swallow, as it indicates that quarantines and social distancing must continue well beyond the initial wave of cases, if another round of infections is to be avoided.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
23 Mar 2020, 17:21
But then, of course, the virus could mutate.
It's definitely mutating:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

However, while the genotype is changing, I don't know to what extent it's had disease-relevant consequences. My cautious prediction is that selection pressures will probably favor less harmful strains, because those patients are more likely to be unaware and keep spreading the disease. However, I don't know whether many such mutations have had a chance to establish a foothold.
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lunchstealer
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by lunchstealer »

lunchstealer wrote:
23 Mar 2020, 16:04
Well seriously take care of yourself. If it is this monster, it's a bit of a road before you're really out of the woods.

mrs lunch's fever started either Saturday or Sunday of last week, so she's at the 8-9 day mark. Didn't even crest 101F yesterday, that we measured. Day 10 is where we'll start to feel safe from a potential downturn. Although there's actually a pretty good chance this was a mild case of flu, since she never got the tickly cough part. Her fever's been down so we may be into the tail end, but there are plenty of reports of it seeming to slack off then come roaring back.
Nope fever's back at 101.8.

It never goes smooth. How come it never goes smooth?
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Eric the .5b »

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
23 Mar 2020, 17:21
But then, of course, the virus could mutate.
And then the real question becomes slow zombies or fast zombies.
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JD
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by JD »

JasonL wrote:
21 Mar 2020, 09:30
To be fair, Zoom is super awkward about making your video and audio mute if you aren't used to the interface.
I can't for the life of me understand why muting audio at startup or "press spacebar to talk" is not the default, except for "because people are stupid and this would cause eight million bug reports saying AUDIO IS BROKEN".

And then there was this article the other day: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/styl ... lling.html
On Tuesday, Chipotle was forced to end a public Zoom chat that the brand had co-hosted with the musician Lauv after one participant began broadcasting pornography to hundreds of attendees.
The main problem, IMO, is that there are two basic types of meeting or conversation - one-to-many, and many-to-many - and people are persistently using the wrong tools. If you want to do a one-to-many, the many should not be able to be seen or heard unless the organizer explicitly grants that to them.
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nicole
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by nicole »

Why do I have the sinking feeling that this is all going to result in the absolute worst future possible


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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Hugh Akston »

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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

:lol:

Sarcasm right? RIGHT???
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Aresen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Aresen »

Hugh Akston wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 11:44
Warren wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 11:55
:lol:

Sarcasm right? RIGHT???
I wish I could be certain it was sarcasm, but some people believe in magic.
Last edited by Aresen on 24 Mar 2020, 12:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

The Yglesias tweet isn't sarcasm. It's just standard issue Yglesias.
But that Literate Labs tweet. I mean it has to be sarcasm.
It just has to.
RIGHT???
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Mo
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Mo »

That reason interview with Richard Epstein aged super poorly. It took a week to hit his projected 500 deaths in the US. I guess now he’s shooting to reclaim the family name.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by dead_elvis »

Why can't I live somewhere civilized like P.E.I.

P.E.I. farmer keeps social distance by hurling pork products to hungry customers
“I am every bit myself as I always was and self-isolation for me has never been a problem. People aren’t really that fond of me,” he said.

“[And] if people persist in coming around, shower less.”
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Aresen »

Warren wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 12:20
The Yglesias tweet isn't sarcasm. It's just standard issue Yglesias.
But that Literate Labs tweet. I mean it has to be sarcasm.
It just has to.
RIGHT???
OOPS. Grabbed nicole's post by mistake. I meant to grab Hugh's. :oops:

I was referring to the Literate Labs part of the tweet.

Yes. Some people really are that stupid.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

Mo wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 12:34
That reason interview with Richard Epstein aged super poorly. It took a week to hit his projected 500 deaths in the US. I guess now he’s shooting to reclaim the family name.
500 was clearly an error.
That estimate is ten times greater than the 500 number I erroneously put in the initial draft of the essay, and it, too, could prove somewhat optimistic. But any possible error rate in this revised projection should be kept in perspective. The current U.S. death toll stands at 592 as of noon on March 24, 2020, out of about 47,000 cases. So my adjusted figure, however tweaked, remains both far lower, and I believe far more accurate, than the common claim that there could be a million dead in the U.S. from well over 150 million coronavirus cases before the epidemic runs its course.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jennifer »

Warren wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 14:57
Mo wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 12:34
That reason interview with Richard Epstein aged super poorly. It took a week to hit his projected 500 deaths in the US. I guess now he’s shooting to reclaim the family name.
500 was clearly an error.
That estimate is ten times greater than the 500 number I erroneously put in the initial draft of the essay, and it, too, could prove somewhat optimistic. But any possible error rate in this revised projection should be kept in perspective. The current U.S. death toll stands at 592 as of noon on March 24, 2020, out of about 47,000 cases. So my adjusted figure, however tweaked, remains both far lower, and I believe far more accurate, than the common claim that there could be a million dead in the U.S. from well over 150 million coronavirus cases before the epidemic runs its course.
Even 5,000 is likely to be far too low. Consider that US deaths were at 201 on Friday, 417 Sunday night, and now we're over 500 before end-of-business on Tuesday. As for those 47,000 cases -- those are only the confirmed ones, and a tiny number compared to the vast majority of people who have NOT been tested, even those showing symptoms-- and Zod alone knows how many infected but asymptomatic people are out there.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Aresen »

Jennifer wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 15:09
Even 5,000 is likely to be far too low. Consider that US deaths were at 201 on Friday, 417 Sunday night, and now we're over 500 before end-of-business on Tuesday. As for those 47,000 cases -- those are only the confirmed ones, and a tiny number compared to the vast majority of people who have NOT been tested, even those showing symptoms-- and Zod alone knows how many infected but asymptomatic people are out there.
If the infected-but-not-tested cases are the 'vast majority' of cases, that could skew the reported mortality rate.

For example, assume the actual number of cases is 4 to 10 times greater than reported. That will include a significant number who progress through the disease, but never get counted in the 'infected' statistics because their symptoms are too mild for them to seek help. This would mean that the actual mortality rate is lower than the 3 - 4% appearing in the news.

OTOH, the fact that there are still 4 to 10 x as many infected people in the general population that we do not know about, means the disease is going to continue to spread in the absence of a full lockdown.

The curve in the US and Canada is still exponential. I would not be surprised to see 5,000,000 reported cases and 200,000 dead.
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Jennifer
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jennifer »


BREAKING: Texas has 715 confirmed #COVID19 cases from only 11,000 tests

That's a 6.5% infection rate.

Texas has 29M people.
[Flushed face emoji]

I won't do the math any further because I hope to God the Govt of Texas comes to its senses & protects its residents.

https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/03 ... n-tuesday/
Meanwhile, Falwell announces Liberty University will re-open after spring break, and has ordered all faculty to return to campus.

https://www.newsadvance.com/news/local/ ... 57b76.html
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Jennifer
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jennifer »

Fuck. Atlanta mayor tells local news that ICU beds in the city are already at capacity.



I saw a couple days ago that there's a 12-year-old girl in one of those hospitals, on a ventilator because of coronavirus.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Highway »

To be fair, there is never much in the way of excess capacity in ICU beds, even during normal times. They're pretty much always almost at capacity. My wife says there were plenty of times that they had to keep someone in the OR for hours because there wasn't room in the PACU (Post-Acute Care Unit) for them, because there wasn't any room in the ICU to move people in the PACU to. And even with stopping elective surgeries, there's still a big demand for ICU beds outside of COVID-19.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Yeah. People be sick yo.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Ellie »

I have been spending wayyyyyy too much on takeout food the past few weeks, and justifying it as supporting local businesses.

I hope they send out those Trump Bucks soon because I'm gonna blow the whole check soon... :lol:
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Aresen »

Jennifer wrote:
24 Mar 2020, 17:10
Meanwhile, Falwell announces Liberty University will re-open after spring break, and has ordered all faculty to return to campus.

https://www.newsadvance.com/news/local/ ... 57b76.html
Personally, I consider this good news (in a Darwinian sense).

Should be an excellent test of the efficacy of prayer.
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