Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Number 6
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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I remember Reason being worthwhile. But that was long ago.
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Mo
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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One point in Jason’s favor. If all it takes for an outbreak are a couple of horny Aussie hotel guards, were doomed.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Mo
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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This article raises a legit scary point. We should all hope and pray (more than usual) for a quiet hurricane season.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/i-was-a-m ... ep-trouble
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Jadagul
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jadagul »

nicole wrote:
20 Jul 2020, 10:01
JasonL wrote:
20 Jul 2020, 09:33
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 5/fulltext

"The majority of the Spanish population is seronegative to SARS-CoV-2 infection, even in hotspot areas. Most PCR-confirmed cases have detectable antibodies, but a substantial proportion of people with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 did not have a PCR test and at least a third of infections determined by serology were asymptomatic. These results emphasise the need for maintaining public health measures to avoid a new epidemic wave."

As I understand it, hotspot areas don't have elevated antibodies in the general population remotely sufficient to get to herd immunity without a vaccine even if you wanted to do the "natural" path.

To me, this means we are facing a) living with outbreaks and addressing locally, b) locking down face to face life for 18 months, 2 years or even 5 years and bearing those economic, isolation, quality of life consequences, or c) that's it. No c.
There's also some research suggesting that T-cell memory remains and can provide ongoing ability to fight the virus, so it's not just about antibodies as far as I understand. But I mean it still seems like we're going to be doing (a) and (b).

Also, the Spanish study is about who _currently_ has antibodies. They're not over the herd immunity threshold _now_, which is very different from saying that it's not possible to get over the herd immunity threshold.

(There's a lot of histrionic reporting about anything relating to possibility of long-term immunity. Antibody levels descend over time because that's what they do.)
lunchstealer wrote:
20 Jul 2020, 16:08
Mo wrote:
20 Jul 2020, 14:22
Hugh Akston wrote:
20 Jul 2020, 13:34
Which article?
https://reason.com/2020/07/17/georgia-g ... date-good/
They're making some really weird claims, too.

Like this article:

https://reason.com/2020/07/20/daily-cov ... e-to-rise/
According to the CDC's "best estimate," 1.3 percent of Americans 65 or older who develop COVID-19 symptoms will die from the disease, compared to 0.2 percent of 50-to-64-year-olds and 0.05 percent of people younger than 50.
So they're saying that the CDC is estimating a case fatality rate is going to be significantly below 1.3%, almost certainly below 0.2%, depending on the current US population distribution, but the page they link shows that their best estimate of the overall infection fatality rate, which is always lower than the case fatality rate in that it includes asymptomatic infections - of 0.65%.
I know the CDC has been recommending CFR numbers to local modelers that everyone considers insanely low.

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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Number 6 wrote:
20 Jul 2020, 17:04
I remember Reason being worthwhile.
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Shem
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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"From my point of view the Carpet-Humping Guy is evil!"
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Shem wrote:
20 Jul 2020, 22:11
"From my point of view the Carpet-Humping Guy is evil!"
Well then you are lost!!!
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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Number 6 wrote:
20 Jul 2020, 17:04
I remember Reason being worthwhile. But that was long ago.
Really? I think they're still doing okay.
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JasonL
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by JasonL »

Their best is good, their median is blah their bad is really bad. Mostly it's predictable libertarian 101 stuff with a few writers doing more interesting takes. Welch has really grown on me.

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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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JasonL wrote:
21 Jul 2020, 13:51
Their best is good, their median is blah their bad is really bad. Mostly it's predictable libertarian 101 stuff with a few writers doing more interesting takes.
Check
Welch has really grown on me.
Same
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Hugh Akston
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Immunity update
Researchers found that the antibodies had a half-life of 73 days, which means that half of them would be gone after that much time. It dovetails with a previous report from China also suggesting antibodies quickly fade.
That’s true, Creech said, but other parts of the immune system also help confer protection. Besides churning out antibodies, B cells develop a memory so they know how to do that again if needed.

“They would get called into action very quickly when there’s a new exposure to the virus. It’s as if they lie dormant, just waiting,” he said.

Other white blood cells called T cells also are better able to attack the virus the next time they see it, Creech said.
Although circulating antibodies may not last long, what we need to know is if and how people remake antibodies if exposed to the coronavirus again and if they protect against another infection, Alison Criss, an immunologist at the University of Virginia, wrote in an email. “We also need to know if there is a protective T cell response” that reappears.
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Mo
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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I got permission to enter Singapore on Aug 3! Now I am applying for the rest of the family to join me. We’ll see how much the US shot show affects their ability to get in.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Dangerman
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Best of luck Mo!

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Mo
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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One thing I’m worried about is Singapore mandating a lightly tested vaccine once one gets to market.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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To no one's great surprise, there are way more people who had Covid than are reported in the official numbers
The study, performed with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, analyzed routine blood samples of more than 16,000 individuals between March 23 and May 12. Over 90 percent came from individuals who were over age 18 and more than half were women. The samples came from 10 different states and were tested for the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
As anticipated, the number of overall infections represented just a small portion of the population in each region (ranging from 1 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area to 6.9 percent in New York City), but the number of infections was far higher than expected — ranging from six to 24 times greater than what had been reported. The study bolsters earlier comments from CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield, who said in late June that the infection rate could be 10 times higher than reported.

In Missouri, where the biggest discrepancy occurred, researchers estimated that more than 160,000 people had developed antibodies between late March and mid-May, 23.8 times as many as the state reported. Six more states (Conn., Fla., La., N.Y., Utah and Wash.) all had infection rates 10 times higher than reported, with Connecticut showing the lowest disparity in numbers.
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dead_elvis
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by dead_elvis »

Hugh Akston wrote:
22 Jul 2020, 12:52
To no one's great surprise, there are way more people who had Covid than are reported in the official numbers
What I've been wondering with using antibodies as a proxy is if people aren't conflating "having Covid" with "exposed to a dose of coronavirus at a threshold below what causes full blown Covid". If that were the case, I'm worried this gives more ammunition to the "see, it's not that bad!" crowd.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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dead_elvis wrote:
22 Jul 2020, 14:27
Hugh Akston wrote:
22 Jul 2020, 12:52
To no one's great surprise, there are way more people who had Covid than are reported in the official numbers
What I've been wondering with using antibodies as a proxy is if people aren't conflating "having Covid" with "exposed to a dose of coronavirus at a threshold below what causes full blown Covid". If that were the case, I'm worried this gives more ammunition to the "see, it's not that bad!" crowd.
What you're describing is basically an asymptomatic case, which studies like this suggest is going to be the experience for the majority of people. Combine that with mild and moderate symptomatic cases, and it really isn't that bad for most people. But most people aren't the ones that quarantine measures are in place to protect.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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JasonL
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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I'm in agreement with much of that but also unsure of carts and horses. If the forces that gave us trump are grassroots, the problem is grassroots and we were always going to be arguing about this regardless of leadership.

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JD
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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This is the scary stat that I haven't seen anybody talking about much: India's new case rate not only isn't leveling off, it's still accelerating.

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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Oh damn. They arent authoritarian enough to clamp down like China either. Huh.
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Mo
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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Or well run enough to clamp down like Japan or Korea.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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So, in a year's time India is going to come out the other end of this with a reduced unproductive elderly population and middle class flush with inheritance from their recently deceased parents. A population with generally robust health, and some inherited afflictions weeded out. And likely some upgrades to their hospitals and health care system. They already have a world class tech industry. If they can keep themselves from killing each other, they'll be the envy of the world.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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You are vastly oversimplifying what little we know now concerning the long term effects of covid but sure.
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Shem
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Shem »

Warren wrote:
27 Jul 2020, 13:41
A population with generally robust health,
Well, other than the men, women, and children of all ages who will be suffering from long-term to lifelong Covid-related damage.
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