Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

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thoreau
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

I like the prose in Scott Alexander's latest post. Some choice excerpts:
It is the sixty-first day of shelter-in-place. Anti-lockdown protesters have stormed your state capitol, chanting Nazi, Communist, ISIS, and pro-Jeffrey Epstein slogans to help you figure out they’re the bad guys. Inside, the Governor has just finished announcing his 37 step plan to reopen the state over the next ten years. You kind of feel like he should be a little more proactive, but the protesters outside have just unfurled a Khmer Rouge flag, so you hold your tongue.

Meanwhile, a band of renegade economists, tech billionaires, and MIT professors has just announced a bold disruptive Manhattan-Project-style moonshot: send a team of researchers to the swamps of Florida, where legends speak of a Fountain of Youth whose water can cure any malady. But disaster strikes when Florida’s governor announces that exploration is not an essential activity, and threatens to release the quarantine enforcement lions. The nation looks to the White House to solve the growing conflict, but President Trump is too busy evangelizing his latest coronavirus cure: eating those little packets of silica gel in food that say DO NOT EAT. As the Western States Pact and the Eastern Bloc inch closer to war, all that the rest of us can do is strive to stay as well-informed as possible, trying to make sense out of an increasingly nonsensical situation. So:

“Jail Isn’t Real”, I Assure Myself As I Close My Eyes And Drive To The Hair Salon
Some confirmed early superspreader events were choirs. A lot of others were churches, where everyone gets together and sings hymns full-blast. This person’s explanation for the surprisingly low rate of subway-mediated transmission in Japan is that nobody talks on a Japanese subway.

All this makes sense. Coronavirus has mostly droplet transmission. There are three ways to get droplets: coughing, sneezing, or talking/singing. You do one of those about a thousand times more often than either of the others.

I appreciate how much pressure there is on governors to open up churches, but they should be very careful about this, unless churchgoers can promise to stay uncharacteristically silent. I realize how bad it will look to say that golfing and rock concerts and orgies are allowed but churches aren’t. Still, governors should swallow their pride and stand firm.

(Or they could just troll people. I understand Muslims pray quietly facing the ground, so how about ordering that mosques are allowed to reopen but churches aren’t? Then sit back and watch the fireworks.)
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Dangerman
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Dangerman »

Yeah I've been enjoying that today. Comments, as usual, are pretty good too.

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nicole
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by nicole »

Dangerman wrote:
19 May 2020, 14:07
Yeah I've been enjoying that today. Comments, as usual, are pretty good too.
I've been thinking about this post/thread a lot lately
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Ellie
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Ellie »

I initially parsed Scott Alexander as Scott Adams and was shocked by the content quoted ...
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Hugh Akston
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Hugh Akston »

Recovered monkeys are immune to coronavirus
Although scientists have assumed that antibodies produced in response to the new coronavirus virus are protective, there has been scant scientifically rigorous evidence to back that up.

In one of the new studies, researchers infected nine monkeys with COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus. After they recovered, the team exposed them to the virus again and the animals did not get sick.
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JasonL
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by JasonL »

Ellie wrote:
19 May 2020, 14:58
I initially parsed Scott Alexander as Scott Adams and was shocked by the content quoted ...
I sometimes do this.

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Kolohe
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Kolohe »

JasonL wrote:
20 May 2020, 15:42
Ellie wrote:
19 May 2020, 14:58
I initially parsed Scott Alexander as Scott Adams and was shocked by the content quoted ...
I sometimes do this.
I did it all the time when slate star codex first crossed my radar.
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Aresen »

Hugh Akston wrote:
20 May 2020, 13:51
Recovered monkeys are immune to coronavirus
Although scientists have assumed that antibodies produced in response to the new coronavirus virus are protective, there has been scant scientifically rigorous evidence to back that up.

In one of the new studies, researchers infected nine monkeys with COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus. After they recovered, the team exposed them to the virus again and the animals did not get sick.
I won't believe it until they expose Young Earth Creationists.
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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

That's it. I'm calling it. I'm done with Pandemic 2020.
No more masks. No more social distancing. No more fucks to give to The Virus.
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Jennifer
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jennifer »

I really hope you're kidding, Warren.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Eric the .5b »

Emotional no-hostage clause.

Image

Or, more likely, anyone he's going to get killed will be strangers to me, so it's hard to prioritize them over everyone else killed by trumpkins.
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Solitudinarian
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Solitudinarian »

Warren wrote:
21 May 2020, 16:39
That's it. I'm calling it. I'm done with Pandemic 2020.
No more masks. No more social distancing. No more fucks to give to The Virus.
I hear you, brother. However, I have actual, defy-them-at-the-risk-of-UCMJ orders to follow.
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Dangerman
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Dangerman »

Until there is a vaccine, and maybe afterwards as well, the virus will be endemic in the population. Masking and distancing are to flatten the curve and keep the hospitals from getting overwhelmed, not because we can stop the spread in its tracks. Most if not all of the population will be exposed at some point. I don't agree with Warren, partly because I'm living with my GF who is immune-compromised, but he's unlikely to be the reason anyone dies.

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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

Immunize the herd!
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Andrew
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Andrew »

Warren wrote:
22 May 2020, 11:26
Immunize the herd!
And then a roundup, followed by a drive to the railhead for transport to Chicago!
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Warren
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

Andrew wrote:
22 May 2020, 12:21
Warren wrote:
22 May 2020, 11:26
Immunize the herd!
And then a roundup, followed by a drive to the railhead for transport to Chicago!
Keep the economy Mooooooving!
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thoreau
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by thoreau »

If you aren't making something go viral, you aren't a REAL LIBERTARIAN.TM
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Hugh Akston »

Latest CDC estimates
In new guidance for mathematical modelers and public health officials, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is estimating that about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.

The agency cautions that those numbers are subject to change as more is learned about Covid-19, and it warns that the information is intended for planning purposes. Still, the agency says its estimates are based on real data collected by the agency before April 29.
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Jennifer
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jennifer »

I can definitely empathize with being fed up with the quarantine and wishing it was freaking over. I want to leave home and do things -- not just actual fun things, but even stuff like "run a grocery errand and have it be a quick little nothing, instead of a big deal requiring all sorts of planning and ritual."
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Jadagul
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jadagul »

Dangerman wrote:
22 May 2020, 09:34
Until there is a vaccine, and maybe afterwards as well, the virus will be endemic in the population. Masking and distancing are to flatten the curve and keep the hospitals from getting overwhelmed, not because we can stop the spread in its tracks. Most if not all of the population will be exposed at some point. I don't agree with Warren, partly because I'm living with my GF who is immune-compromised, but he's unlikely to be the reason anyone dies.
"Most if not all of the population will be exposed at some point" seems pretty unlikely to me, at least as an unconditional statement. Several nations have driven the infection rate down to effectively zero, through a combination of rigorous lockdowns, effective testing and tracing, and near-universal mask-wearing. So your statement is more likely to be true if people wander around not wearing masks, but it doesn't have to be true.

Second, historical infection rates are still pretty low in most places, like a few percent. Even if we keep R hovering around one, we'd probably not top fifty percent before we get to a vaccine, and could easily keep it down below twenty-ish in a lot of places. I would rather get the infection rates down lower than that before we glide along R=1, but that's a far cry from "everyone gets it".

Third, even in a totally uncontrolled spread, it's unlikely that "everyone" would get it. If you believe the R ~ 3 numbers from early in the pandemic, an uncontrolled spread would hit about 80% exposure. And a moderately controlled spread would get to like 65% exposure. The first number is significantly and important different from 100%; and the second number is significantly and importantly different from the first.
Hugh Akston wrote:
22 May 2020, 15:57
Latest CDC estimates
In new guidance for mathematical modelers and public health officials, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is estimating that about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.

The agency cautions that those numbers are subject to change as more is learned about Covid-19, and it warns that the information is intended for planning purposes. Still, the agency says its estimates are based on real data collected by the agency before April 29.
A lot of epidemiologists are unhappy about this report because the numbers are substantially below almost all the other estimates. See e.g. Bergstrom here:
The more I think about it, the more this bothers me.

These numbers are so far outside of the scientific consensus that this strikes me as a devious and cynical effort to manipulate not only federal modeling but the broader scientific discourse.

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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

Jadagul wrote:
22 May 2020, 17:22
See e.g. Bergstrom here:
You can't link to fucking tweet and expect people to take it seriously.
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Jadagul
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Jadagul »

Warren wrote:
22 May 2020, 17:27
Jadagul wrote:
22 May 2020, 17:22
See e.g. Bergstrom here:
You can't link to fucking tweet and expect people to take it seriously.
Why? That's how most of the academic experts are engaging the public on the subject. That's where the expertise is.

Would you rather I link the CNN article that Bergstrom linked in that tweet thread that quotes him?
"While most of these numbers are reasonable, the mortality rates shade far too low," biologist Carl Bergstrom of the University of Washington told CNN.

Bergstrom, an expert in modeling and computer simulations, said the numbers seemed inconsistent with real-world findings.
"Estimates of the numbers infected in places like NYC are way out of line with these estimates. Let us remember that the number of deaths in NYC right now are far more than we would expect if every adult and child in the city had been infected with a flu-like virus. This is not the flu. It is COVID," Bergstrom said.

"As I see it, the 'best estimate' is extremely optimistic, and the 'worst case' scenario is fairly optimistic even as a best estimate. One certainly wants to consider worse scenarios," Bergstrom said of CDC's numbers.

"By introducing these as the official parameter sets for modeling efforts, CDC is influencing the models produced by federal agencies, but also the broader scientific discourse because there will be some pressure to use the CDC standard parameter sets in modeling papers going forward," he said.

"Given that these parameter sets underestimate fatality by a substantial margin compared to current scientific consensus, this is deeply problematic."

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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by lunchstealer »

Warren wrote:
22 May 2020, 17:27
Jadagul wrote:
22 May 2020, 17:22
See e.g. Bergstrom here:
You can't link to fucking tweet and expect people to take it seriously.
Honestly I'm not sure there's much J could point to that you'd take seriously if it disconfirms your desired fuck everything let's do what I want bias/narrative, but here maybe this will help.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1263 ... 23873.html
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Warren »

lunchstealer wrote:
22 May 2020, 20:29
Warren wrote:
22 May 2020, 17:27
Jadagul wrote:
22 May 2020, 17:22
See e.g. Bergstrom here:
You can't link to fucking tweet and expect people to take it seriously.
Honestly I'm not sure there's much J could point to that you'd take seriously if it disconfirms your desired fuck everything let's do what I want bias/narrative, but here maybe this will help.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1263 ... 23873.html
WOW
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Re: Corona(virus)? ITS NOT EVEN BEER DAMMIT!!!

Post by Pham Nuwen »

You both do.
Goddamn libertarian message board. Hugh Akston

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