Predictions for 2030

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Eric the .5b
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Predictions for 2030

Post by Eric the .5b »

What are your predictions for the next ten years?

Two of mine:

1) Putin will be out of power in Russia. This may require him dying of natural causes, though perhaps of the "it's natural to die when shot in the head" variety.

2) Boris Johnson will still be PM of the UK, England, or whatever polity has a capital in London.
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
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Number 6
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Number 6 »

Trump will still be President.
Kidding. Sort of. He's way too old to survive that long.
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Aresen
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Aresen »

We will still have only ten years left to save the planet.

Fusion power will be commercially practical within 20 years.
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Warren
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Warren »

Only the very wealthy will own cars. Getting a drivers license will be as difficult as getting a license to practice law or medicine.
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thoreau
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by thoreau »

Iran will still be an Islamic Republic with a government that recognizes some sort of continuity with the current regime. Might be new people (the Supreme Leader is getting old), might be somewhat reformed, but won't be a new system via a disruptive event like a revolution, coup, etc.
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thoreau
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by thoreau »

There will still be US troops in Afghanistan.

There will still be a Grylliade for us to come to and compare these predictions on.

Scientists still won't know what dark matter is and still won't have a confirmed signal of physics beyond the standard model (aside from some possible advances in neutrino physics).

Most major colleges and universities will refuse to look at standardized test scores for admissions.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Eric the .5b »

Cryptocurrency will die hard by 2030, to the point that future attempts at the same goals (aside from speculation) will call themselves something else.

Facebook won't be the dominant social network. It's had a good run, but it's built up a lot of bad will, and it's just begging for disruption by someone who makes onboarding painless.

The dominant social network will probably be a commercial enterprise, not one of the distributed whatsits. Much as I'd like one of them to really take off, I suspect they'll stay niche. Hopefully Nazi Twitter Gab won't be the biggest node on the distributed social networks by then...

On the other hand, there will be a number of people running websites on their phones. The things have more than enough power even now...

The Libertarian Party will fail to convert the last two presidential elections into anything lasting and will sink back to their old levels, adjusted for population.

No other recreational drugs besides pot will be legalized in the US, but all fifty states will legalize it. The federal government will have to capitulate on that.

Crypto—as in proper cryptography—will be very important. Only old people will use a chat program or whatever that doesn't have point-to-point encryption. It will be harder to host non-SSL sites than not; 2030 Grylliade will definitely have SSL. (It will also probably run on PHP, because PHP will never leave us.) Your data in the cloud will encrypted so that providers can't share it with the Feebs or worse branches of worse governments, and that will happen because people will get sick of The Other Team's abuses on the matter.

Most "privacy advocates" will still focus on their fear of corporations knowing that they exist and buy things.

E-readers get full-color e-ink. By the end of the decade, I'll be able to get one large, cheap, and high-resolution enough to be worth reading comics with high-quality art or textbooks with elaborate layout. College students will still pay out the ass to download the latest textbooks, but at least they won't have to carry the things.

The South Korean "webtoon" web comic format (vertical panels that you scroll through) becomes a major style for web comics, right up there with strip and page layouts.

A few webnovels manage to bust the serialized web prose format into a mainstream entertainment. It will bring some of its geeky niche genres along with it, but it will get gentrified by more mainstream writers interested in the format.

No idea how long it will last, but a Gilligan's Island reboot or revival will make it at least to a pilot.
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Warren
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Warren »

Eric the .5b wrote:
03 Jan 2020, 23:36
Cryptocurrency will die hard by 2030, to the point that future attempts at the same goals (aside from speculation) will call themselves something else.
Wanna bet?
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Eric the .5b »

Warren wrote:
04 Jan 2020, 01:34
Eric the .5b wrote:
03 Jan 2020, 23:36
Cryptocurrency will die hard by 2030, to the point that future attempts at the same goals (aside from speculation) will call themselves something else.
Wanna bet?
You've already got a bet open with me.
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
Cet animal est très méchant / Quand on l'attaque il se défend.

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Warren
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Warren »

Eric the .5b wrote:
04 Jan 2020, 03:46
Warren wrote:
04 Jan 2020, 01:34
Eric the .5b wrote:
03 Jan 2020, 23:36
Cryptocurrency will die hard by 2030, to the point that future attempts at the same goals (aside from speculation) will call themselves something else.
Wanna bet?
You've already got a bet open with me.
Over the Dem nominee, right. Anyhoo, I was just joking.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Eric the .5b »

Warren wrote:
04 Jan 2020, 10:33
Eric the .5b wrote:
04 Jan 2020, 03:46
Warren wrote:
04 Jan 2020, 01:34
Eric the .5b wrote:
03 Jan 2020, 23:36
Cryptocurrency will die hard by 2030, to the point that future attempts at the same goals (aside from speculation) will call themselves something else.
Wanna bet?
You've already got a bet open with me.
Over the Dem nominee, right. Anyhoo, I was just joking.
And noting how you want to make a bet over everything is the height of gravity.
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
Cet animal est très méchant / Quand on l'attaque il se défend.

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Eric the .5b
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Eric the .5b »

Well, my prediction of Boris Johnson being around in ten years may fall a little flat.
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
Cet animal est très méchant / Quand on l'attaque il se défend.

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Twba
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Twba »

Fully autonomous cars will still be only ten years away.

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JasonL
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by JasonL »

Limitless fusion energy will also still be 10 years away. We will still be hearing about it from Matt Ridley.

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JasonL
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by JasonL »

I'll be honest, and this is in flux right now, but I feel like the thing I've been potentially most wrong about as an adult is my historical take on the direction of history. Wars and events interrupt things yes, but we regather and resume arguing about tax rates not the fundamentals of liberalism or property or rights broadly construed. In this view civil rights, LGBT causes like gay marriage, beginnings of anger about the justice system would all messily lead to a better place. I am beginning to believe 2030 will be a dramatically more authoritarian place because I think a lot of people may want that not as a mechanism to get their policies per se, but because they see others and themselves as children who shouldn't be allowed to choose much of anything. I detect too much glee in the act of a government shutting down an economy. I detect too much glee in people calling the cops on each other for violations of stay at home. I think there is a sense that people really enjoy having a thing so big they can impose themselves.

I'm very concerned about 2030.

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JasonL
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by JasonL »

In a similar sense, all the people talking about here's a big thing the revolution is coming don't get it. There will be no revolution just choosing Mommy or Daddy in Chief. More empowerment of authority not overturning authority.

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Andrew
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Andrew »

JasonL wrote:
07 Apr 2020, 08:05
I detect too much glee in the act of a government shutting down an economy. I detect too much glee in people calling the cops on each other for violations of stay at home. I think there is a sense that people really enjoy having a thing so big they can impose themselves.
The hiking forums on reddit were absolutely melting down that a PCT hiker was going to continue hiking rather than go home. I mean, full-on autistic rage that someone would dare to do something so irresponsible. Granted, the hiker was live-videologging the whole thing, which annoys me, but that wasn't what the reddit autists were mad about.

Meanwhile, the Arizona Trail Association keeps sending out emails about how the Trail is still open (although closed in certain places like Grand Canyon NP), and it's a great time to be outside and hiking as long as one follows proper precautions.

The shutdown/lockdown is another way for controlling assholes try to ruin people's lives, and they're certainly not going to miss their chance.
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Warren
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Warren »

Andrew wrote:
07 Apr 2020, 13:10
the hiker was live-videologging the whole thing, which annoys me
Why should that annoy you?
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Predictions for 2030

Post by Eric the .5b »

Eric the .5b wrote:
06 Apr 2020, 16:53
Well, my prediction of Boris Johnson being around in ten years may fall a little flat.
And the little chameleon manages to get out of ICU. I wouldn't have been the first to underestimate his chances.
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
Cet animal est très méchant / Quand on l'attaque il se défend.

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