And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

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Taktix®
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And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Taktix® » 25 Sep 2019, 02:21

Because it's happening gif, folks.

One aspect of this that sits poorly with me is the idea that House impeachment and Senate non-conviction will be some electoral boon for Trump.

Trump declares a victory every time anything happens. Hell, his base probably thinks he already won the damn impeachment as any smartest person ever would. They're never going to budge either way. Outside of his biggest fans though, I think the Senate non-conviction will read as the GOP once again covering for him, not the grand vindication that he'll inevitably claim.

Contrapositively, if the Democrats, who only came into power in 2018 because of the negative reaction to Trump, fail to take significant action such as impeachment, they will lose the anti-Trump crossover vote and fail yuge in 2020 (point being that despite the posturing and subterfuge over the summer, the Dems were Impeach or Die right off rip).

Thoughts?
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Eric the .5b
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Eric the .5b » 25 Sep 2019, 02:34

Taktix® wrote:
25 Sep 2019, 02:21
One aspect of this that sits poorly with me is the idea that House impeachment and Senate non-conviction will be some electoral boon for Trump.
"Those smug liberals you hate are persecuting me!" is probably the last ditch pitch Trump has for getting his fraying base out to vote for him. That's the boon. That and everyone loves an acquittal for their team.

Meanwhile, yes, Trump has gotten so blatant that Team Blue really has to begin the long process or STFU. A week ago, I would have said the plan was to make the 2020 elections another referendum on Trump, so as to gut Team Red as much as possible. That mostly requires having Trump around to kick, though, so we're on Plan B.
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Warren » 25 Sep 2019, 02:37

DOOT DOOT DOODLE DOO DOO DOOT DOOT DOO DOOT
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Mo » 25 Sep 2019, 05:01

Eric the .5b wrote:
25 Sep 2019, 02:34
Taktix® wrote:
25 Sep 2019, 02:21
One aspect of this that sits poorly with me is the idea that House impeachment and Senate non-conviction will be some electoral boon for Trump.
"Those smug liberals you hate are persecuting me!" is probably the last ditch pitch Trump has for getting his fraying base out to vote for him. That's the boon. That and everyone loves an acquittal for their team.

Meanwhile, yes, Trump has gotten so blatant that Team Blue really has to begin the long process or STFU. A week ago, I would have said the plan was to make the 2020 elections another referendum on Trump, so as to gut Team Red as much as possible. That mostly requires having Trump around to kick, though, so we're on Plan B.
I mean part of it is that you need the impeachment as a sidecar. You can't run a campaign on Trump being a corrupt lawbreaking president without putting big boy pants on. Otherwise he could respond, "If I'm so bad, then why won't even the witch-hunting Democratic Congress do anything about it?"

Also, this makes it a bit easier to gut the GOP. If the Senate acquits with 0 Rs, Trump is still around with all the dirty laundry out to dry and the Rs have to answer if they think that's good behavior (mostly Collins, McSally, Gardner, Tillis and, to a lesser extent, Perdue). If it's close, the Rs will finger point and the defectors will have Trump and the Ds attacking them. And if he's removed, there's going to be serious divisions.

The thing I wonder is if Trump doesn't get impeached and things look bad in November, does he resign with an agreement that Pence will pardon him. Because President Warren or Harris sure as shit ain't doing that.
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by nicole » 25 Sep 2019, 05:22

I’m definitely still in the “Trump will win 2020” column.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Eric the .5b » 25 Sep 2019, 05:24

At this point, I suspect nobody but Trump is getting gutted over this investigation, even in a best-case scenario. Blues didn't do badly after Clinton's impeachment. If the Blues do well in 2020, it's going to be a matter of putting in the work on the ground, not a moral victory on Capitol Hill.

And yeah, when a situation is the Blues' to lose, they always have a chance of doing just that.
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Pham Nuwen » 25 Sep 2019, 07:24

nicole wrote:
25 Sep 2019, 05:22
I’m definitely still in the “Trump will win 2020” column.
My gut tells me that but I just have such a problem with all his bullshit. I have a hard time accepting that a lot of people are okay with everything he's done. His stupidity crosses quite a few boundaries. I may be to hopeful of people.
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Number 6 » 25 Sep 2019, 08:33

Pham Nuwen wrote:
25 Sep 2019, 07:24
nicole wrote:
25 Sep 2019, 05:22
I’m definitely still in the “Trump will win 2020” column.
My gut tells me that but I just have such a problem with all his bullshit. I have a hard time accepting that a lot of people are okay with everything he's done. His stupidity crosses quite a few boundaries. I may be to hopeful of people.
You are.
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by JasonL » 25 Sep 2019, 08:48

I think trump was going to win and this won’t change that. It might allow donkeys to get a unified front that’s not just crazy ranting and GND and whatnot. Maybe. I’m curious who comes out with the nomination.

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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Warren » 25 Sep 2019, 08:57

Pham Nuwen wrote:
25 Sep 2019, 07:24
nicole wrote:
25 Sep 2019, 05:22
I’m definitely still in the “Trump will win 2020” column.
My gut tells me that but I just have such a problem with all his bullshit. I have a hard time accepting that a lot of people are okay with everything he's done. His stupidity crosses quite a few boundaries. I may be to hopeful of people.
A lot of people are tired of his bullshit. But when it comes time to pull the lever, the question is, Compared to what?
It's dumb out there kids, keep your heads down. - JasonL

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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Mo » 25 Sep 2019, 10:14

My money is on a loss. At best, he's where he was in 2016 and needed to draw on an inside straight to win.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by thoreau » 25 Sep 2019, 10:29

Generic Democrat will beat Trump into the ground and then dig him up for another beating.

Real Democrat with baggage will probably lose.

Our best hope is that cholesterol and stimulants do a double whammy on his heart and he bunks with Nixon in hell.
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by JD » 25 Sep 2019, 10:51

My money is on a Trump win assuming he doesn't get impeached and removed - and my money is against that too, frankly. None of the Democratic contenders look very strong: so far the only ones notable in the polls are Biden, Warren, and Sanders. Biden is increasingly looking like a loopy old man, Sanders is a nine-million-year-old crank, and Warren is going to get painted as a left-wing ideologue - and worse, a woman.

Impeachment is probably going to turn into a referendum on Trump's presidency rather than a serious examination of the issues, and by extension a referendum on the Republican party, which means it's likely to just turn into a shoving match along party lines.
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Hugh Akston » 25 Sep 2019, 11:25

Team no trial, Trump wins again in 2020. Team Blue will nominate Warren and declare her unsinkable because they steadfastly refuse to learn from history.
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Shem » 25 Sep 2019, 11:40

Mo wrote:
25 Sep 2019, 10:14
My money is on a loss. At best, he's where he was in 2016 and needed to draw on an inside straight to win.
This is an underappreciated point; 60,000 votes spread across three states and Trump loses. In an election against someone who had spent literally the previous quarter-century being Public Enemy #1 among the Republican Party, and who spent half that time being tarred as "everything wrong with the Clinton Years" by her left flank. People who are convinced he's going to win; who is he going to get this time that he didn't get last time?
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by thoreau » 25 Sep 2019, 11:42

I don't know who will vote for him that didn't support him last time, but I'm pretty sure that the media will go into over-drive looking for some Blue scandal to create a false equivalence. Last time they beat the email scandal to death. This time they'll find...something. Whatever it is, it will be an excuse to say "On the one hand, four years of clusterfuck and decades of shady business dealings. On the other hand, well, this scandal. The Blue scandal has huge...tracts of land."
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by tr0g » 25 Sep 2019, 12:46

Doesn't matter what the House does, no way the Senate votes for impeachment.

Of course, I am a shitty political prognosticator with a very low correct percentage. So if they do impeach Trump, then we get President Pence. Has anybody really thought that one through? Trump is not , for all his faults, an ideologue. Pence is. Pence with an R senate majority does not fill me with happy thoughts, and he will have an energized base that will turn out in force to avenge Trump's impeachment.
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by nicole » 25 Sep 2019, 12:48

Hugh Akston wrote:
25 Sep 2019, 11:25
Team no trial, Trump wins again in 2020. Team Blue will nominate Warren and declare her unsinkable because they steadfastly refuse to learn from history.
Team Hugh
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by thoreau » 25 Sep 2019, 12:51

tr0g wrote:
25 Sep 2019, 12:46
Doesn't matter what the House does, no way the Senate votes for impeachment.

Of course, I am a shitty political prognosticator with a very low correct percentage. So if they do impeach Trump, then we get President Pence. Has anybody really thought that one through? Trump is not , for all his faults, an ideologue. Pence is. Pence with an R senate majority does not fill me with happy thoughts, and he will have an energized base that will turn out in force to avenge Trump's impeachment.
If Trump does get removed (yeah, unlikely), Pence will have less than a year in office, an administration that's in tatters and under-staffed (and that's just with current attrition, before impeachment probes get a chance to expose corruption touching more people), and a Congress that's willing to flex its muscles against the executive (and against partisan affiliation, in the case of the Senate).

I'm not saying that he'd be a great President, but he'd be constrained.

Then again, Mike Pence might enjoy being bound by 535 people (most of them men).
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Ellie » 25 Sep 2019, 12:52

Part of me is THRILLED at the possibility of an impeachment circus because fuck Trump, and part of me is enraged because we (as a nation) will spend all our time focusing on that when there are still kids being locked up in cages.
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Highway » 25 Sep 2019, 13:03

I'm a lot more positive about the prospects of impeachment for the clear reason of enlisting foreign aid for a campaign purpose, or just to hurt a political enemy than I would be for the "normal" graft and corruption that Trump is involved in everyday, because I think that is something that fewer people will accept as "just politics", leaving it as less of a "well, everyone does it" response.
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by thoreau » 25 Sep 2019, 13:06

Highway wrote:
25 Sep 2019, 13:03
I'm a lot more positive about the prospects of impeachment for the clear reason of enlisting foreign aid for a campaign purpose, or just to hurt a political enemy than I would be for the "normal" graft and corruption that Trump is involved in everyday, because I think that is something that fewer people will accept as "just politics", leaving it as less of a "well, everyone does it" response.
In terms of what people will think, you're probably right.

In terms of what actually happens, no, I don't think that "everyone does" what Trump does. At least not to that extent. Corruption is nothing new, but it's something that we have to push back on. We can never eliminate it, but we can reduce it. Of course, we can also let it proliferate, which is what will happen if people accept "Well, everyone does it" as a defense.

The most damaging thing to come from the Trump administration may be that an entire political party now accepts "Well, everyone does it" as an excuse for corruption.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Ellie » 25 Sep 2019, 13:08

The talking points email gaffe is pretty delicious, I must say. Though I don't want to enjoy it too much lest internet karma come for me and cause me to mis-send an email in the future.
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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by Painboy » 25 Sep 2019, 13:16

I just hope they have something more concrete than the Mueller probe. His opponents have little political credibility left after that. One more investigation that turns up nothing substantial just plays into his whole "witch hunt" refrain, and if anything seems to embolden him.

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Re: And Then There Were Four (The Impeachment Thread)

Post by thoreau » 25 Sep 2019, 13:28

There's no point in rehashing years of arguments over this, but the Russia investigation didn't exactly turn up "nothing." It didn't prove a crime, but it did establish a pattern of conduct and connections that would be completely unacceptable from literally anyone else seeking a security clearance. If that's "nothing" then we are a country with no standards, and I should just go ahead and hand STEM diplomas to people who can't do algebra.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
--Mo

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