Dancing With the Dems

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Hugh Akston » 12 Sep 2019, 22:36

Taktix® wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 22:21
OMG Biden has a proposal to partition Afghanistan...
Name me one time when an imperial foreign power carving up the Middle East like a crown roast ended badly.
"Is a Lulztopia the best we can hope for?!?" ~Taktix®
"Somali pirates are beholden to their hostages in a way that the USG is not." ~Dangerman

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Aresen
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Aresen » 12 Sep 2019, 22:43

Taktix® wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 22:21
OMG Biden has a proposal to partition Afghanistan...
Between the guys who want to nuke America and burn it to the ground and the extremists.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex


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Mo
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Mo » 13 Sep 2019, 06:57

Hugh Akston wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 22:36
Taktix® wrote:
12 Sep 2019, 22:21
OMG Biden has a proposal to partition Afghanistan...
Name me one time when an imperial foreign power carving up the Middle East like a crown roast ended badly.
The good thing is, Afghanistan is in Central Asia
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Tuco
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Tuco » 13 Sep 2019, 07:07

What could go wrong?

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JD
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by JD » 13 Sep 2019, 13:52

So I don't know if this is strictly just trying to buy votes, but it sure has that feel: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/12/andrew- ... ilies.html
I sort of feel like a sucker about aspiring to be intellectually rigorous when I could just go on twitter and say capitalism causes space herpes and no one will challenge me on it. - Hugh Akston

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Hugh Akston » 27 Sep 2019, 15:11

Just saw my first Elizabeth Warren bumper sticker, and all it said was 'Warren'.

I really hope she doesn't win the election. I don't know how I would ever get used to saying things like "Warren is wrong again," or "check out this dumb shit Warren said."
"Is a Lulztopia the best we can hope for?!?" ~Taktix®
"Somali pirates are beholden to their hostages in a way that the USG is not." ~Dangerman

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Aresen
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Aresen » 27 Sep 2019, 15:15

Hugh Akston wrote:
27 Sep 2019, 15:11
Just saw my first Elizabeth Warren bumper sticker, and all it said was 'Warren'.

I really hope she doesn't win the election. I don't know how I would ever get used to saying things like "Warren is wrong again," or "check out this dumb shit Warren said."
I look forward to our new treefrog overlordess.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex

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Warren
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Warren » 27 Sep 2019, 15:55

Hugh Akston wrote:
27 Sep 2019, 15:11
Just saw my first Elizabeth Warren bumper sticker, and all it said was 'Warren'.

I really hope she doesn't win the election. I don't know how I would ever get used to saying things like "Warren is wrong again," or "check out this dumb shit Warren said."
That's Lord Emperor Warren to you ducky.
It's dumb out there kids, keep your heads down. - JasonL

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Eric the .5b
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Eric the .5b » 28 Sep 2019, 21:30

I'm seeing some hand-wringing over all the "not top five" Blue candidates who are supposedly getting all the attention taken away from them by the impeachment.

I'm still trying to understand what real chance someone with single-digit support has at this point. When's the last time someone's come out of the back of the pack this late in the process and taken the nomination?
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
Cet animal est très méchant / Quand on l'attaque il se défend.

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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Warren » 29 Sep 2019, 00:35

Eric the .5b wrote:
28 Sep 2019, 21:30
I'm seeing some hand-wringing over all the "not top five" Blue candidates who are supposedly getting all the attention taken away from them by the impeachment.

I'm still trying to understand what real chance someone with single-digit support has at this point. When's the last time someone's come out of the back of the pack this late in the process and taken the nomination?
I fuckin hate that we're over 13 months away from the election and yet also "this late in the process"
It's dumb out there kids, keep your heads down. - JasonL

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Aresen
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Aresen » 29 Sep 2019, 00:49

Next to Trump, Biden and Saunders are the closest to the Alzheimer's ward. It's ridiculous that they are running.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex

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Mo
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Mo » 29 Sep 2019, 17:02

Eric the .5b wrote:I'm seeing some hand-wringing over all the "not top five" Blue candidates who are supposedly getting all the attention taken away from them by the impeachment.

I'm still trying to understand what real chance someone with single-digit support has at this point. When's the last time someone's come out of the back of the pack this late in the process and taken the nomination?
Bill Clinton in 1992. He was at 8% late in 1991. So that’s 1 out of the last 10 meaningful primaries.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Eric the .5b
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Eric the .5b » 29 Sep 2019, 18:55

Mo wrote:
29 Sep 2019, 17:02
Eric the .5b wrote:I'm seeing some hand-wringing over all the "not top five" Blue candidates who are supposedly getting all the attention taken away from them by the impeachment.

I'm still trying to understand what real chance someone with single-digit support has at this point. When's the last time someone's come out of the back of the pack this late in the process and taken the nomination?
Bill Clinton in 1992. He was at 8% late in 1991. So that’s 1 out of the last 10 meaningful primaries.
Process, though. We're not at September for that primary. In late September 1991, Clinton hadn't even declared his candidacy, and the first Team Blue debates were two and a half months in the future. We're much further along in the process, probably closer to February 1992 where the race was clearly between the three front-runners, even if Iowa loved Harkin.

We've just got long extra months of the front-runners jockeying for position before the primaries.
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
Cet animal est très méchant / Quand on l'attaque il se défend.

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Eric the .5b
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Eric the .5b » 29 Sep 2019, 18:59

Aresen wrote:
29 Sep 2019, 00:49
Next to Trump, Biden and Saunders are the closest to the Alzheimer's ward. It's ridiculous that they are running.
Sanders also has the habit of looking like he's posing for that photograph from Back to the Future 2 where Doc Brown has been committed.
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
Cet animal est très méchant / Quand on l'attaque il se défend.

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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Warren » 29 Sep 2019, 19:22

Eric the .5b wrote:
29 Sep 2019, 18:59
Aresen wrote:
29 Sep 2019, 00:49
Next to Trump, Biden and Saunders are the closest to the Alzheimer's ward. It's ridiculous that they are running.
Sanders also has the habit of looking like he's posing for that photograph from Back to the Future 2 where Doc Brown has been committed.
Great Scott
It's dumb out there kids, keep your heads down. - JasonL

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Mo
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Mo » 30 Sep 2019, 02:47

Eric the .5b wrote:
Mo wrote:
29 Sep 2019, 17:02
Eric the .5b wrote:I'm seeing some hand-wringing over all the "not top five" Blue candidates who are supposedly getting all the attention taken away from them by the impeachment.

I'm still trying to understand what real chance someone with single-digit support has at this point. When's the last time someone's come out of the back of the pack this late in the process and taken the nomination?
Bill Clinton in 1992. He was at 8% late in 1991. So that’s 1 out of the last 10 meaningful primaries.
Process, though. We're not at September for that primary. In late September 1991, Clinton hadn't even declared his candidacy, and the first Team Blue debates were two and a half months in the future. We're much further along in the process, probably closer to February 1992 where the race was clearly between the three front-runners, even if Iowa loved Harkin.

We've just got long extra months of the front-runners jockeying for position before the primaries.
I mean if you can’t count an election as recent as 1992 as evidence, then there’s no point asking if we’ve ever seen someone come back from single digits to win the nom because there are too few data points. Feb 1992 was right before the first votes were cast.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Eric the .5b
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Eric the .5b » 30 Sep 2019, 04:21

Mo wrote:
30 Sep 2019, 02:47
Eric the .5b wrote:
Mo wrote:
29 Sep 2019, 17:02
Eric the .5b wrote:I'm seeing some hand-wringing over all the "not top five" Blue candidates who are supposedly getting all the attention taken away from them by the impeachment.

I'm still trying to understand what real chance someone with single-digit support has at this point. When's the last time someone's come out of the back of the pack this late in the process and taken the nomination?
Bill Clinton in 1992. He was at 8% late in 1991. So that’s 1 out of the last 10 meaningful primaries.
Process, though. We're not at September for that primary. In late September 1991, Clinton hadn't even declared his candidacy, and the first Team Blue debates were two and a half months in the future. We're much further along in the process, probably closer to February 1992 where the race was clearly between the three front-runners, even if Iowa loved Harkin.

We've just got long extra months of the front-runners jockeying for position before the primaries.
I mean if you can’t count an election as recent as 1992 as evidence, then there’s no point asking if we’ve ever seen someone come back from single digits to win the nom because there are too few data points. Feb 1992 was right before the first votes were cast.
Well, 1992 was a very atypical election, as the top 9 polling Democrats in mid-1991 never ran.

However, I'd say we can count it as evidence, but we have to try to compare apples to apples. Comparing month-to-month doesn't make sense, because we're not going by the same schedule as 91/92. It doesn't make sense to compare to a point nearly three months prior to the first debate in one cycle when we're already past the third debate in this cycle, with the debates taking twice as long a period as in 1991/92. We have to go by milestones like the debates. Though, to be fair, it's more accurate to say we're at a point equivalent to sometime in January 1992, since the fifth 1992 debate was February 23. (We'll hit that stage this November.)

Or to restate my question: when's the last time we've been three debates in and someone's sprung out out of single digits support at the back of the pack to win? I submit that this is the perennial complaint of the no-hope candidates more than anything else.
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
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Mo
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Mo » 30 Sep 2019, 07:38

You can’t compare this cycle to other cycles because of the sheer number of candidates. Most election analysis based on what happened I. The past is crap because the sample sizes are necessarily small and to get a meaningful sample size you end up with eras that can’t be compared.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Kolohe
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Kolohe » 30 Sep 2019, 09:53

Team Mo. Between the fact that we've only had the modern nominating system since roughly 1972 (so about a dozen election cycles), incumbency taking out/skewing the field on one side for also about half of those, a big name clearing most of the field on one side or the other for two or three of those (Gore and H Clinton, and Dubya, depending on how you count it), the continuous and ongoing transformation of each party's principal socio-ideological voting coalitions during that entire time - you can't really make many generalizations on the dynamics of the US political party presidential selection process. Each one has near unique inputs and initial conditions.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by thoreau » 30 Sep 2019, 10:32

One interesting aspect of Trumpeachment is that it might revive old school nomination processes. Several Red States have cancelled the 2020 GOP primaries to prevent primary challengers from harming him. If he gets removed (yes, big if) and there's no time to reschedule the primary, the convention will be more than just a formality. Pence would be the most likely pick, of course, but would not be a foregone conclusion.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Warren » 30 Sep 2019, 10:33

Kolohe wrote:
30 Sep 2019, 09:53
Team Mo. Between the fact that we've only had the modern nominating system since roughly 1972 (so about a dozen election cycles), incumbency taking out/skewing the field on one side for also about half of those, a big name clearing most of the field on one side or the other for two or three of those (Gore and H Clinton, and Dubya, depending on how you count it), the continuous and ongoing transformation of each party's principal socio-ideological voting coalitions during that entire time - you can't really make many generalizations on the dynamics of the US political party presidential selection process. Each one has near unique inputs and initial conditions.
Not to mention politics is now a game played on sco-med.
It's dumb out there kids, keep your heads down. - JasonL

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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by thoreau » 30 Sep 2019, 10:53

What is sco-media?

Did you mean to abbreviate social media as soc-media?

Believe it or not, spelling checkers were developed by software engineers, i.e. STEM professionals.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Warren » 30 Sep 2019, 12:26

thoreau wrote:
30 Sep 2019, 10:53
What is sco-media?

Did you mean to abbreviate social media as soc-media?

Believe it or not, spelling checkers were developed by software engineers, i.e. STEM professionals.
Sco-med, is my trademarked short for 'social media'. It's all the rage, it's trending on sco-med.
It's dumb out there kids, keep your heads down. - JasonL

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Eric the .5b
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Re: Dancing With the Dems

Post by Eric the .5b » 30 Sep 2019, 12:33

Mo wrote:
30 Sep 2019, 07:38
You can’t compare this cycle to other cycles because of the sheer number of candidates. Most election analysis based on what happened I. The past is crap because the sample sizes are necessarily small and to get a meaningful sample size you end up with eras that can’t be compared.
Eh, you brought up 1991 as relevant, not me.

But, if a situation of a few front-runners, who together have a majority of support, being trailed by a bunch of also-rans each at -5% or less, is truly so deeply alien to American party politics, then I still don't see the point of the hand-wringing I was talking about. There's no reason to think Beto or Steyer is going to leap up in interest if only they get a little bit more coverage. The Blues have seen them and aren't that interested.

And I don't think it's so alien or unique at this point. There are clear front-runners, while the also-rans are below or are dropping towards the polls' margins of error. The only difference is that the also-rans are treated as still in the running this time around, instead of being quickly dropped from polls and debates
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
Cet animal est très méchant / Quand on l'attaque il se défend.

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