A*M*A*S*H

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Pham Nuwen
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Smart money.
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by lunchstealer »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
30 Apr 2020, 01:47
Smart money.
And seriously in this case 'smart' money is anything north of Kim Jong Un's cortical activity.
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Warren »

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
29 Apr 2020, 23:56
Not only do I doubt he'll take many votes from either, I'm going to go ahead and predict right now he's not going to win.
Win the election? Certainly not.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Pham Nuwen »

But will he win Warren's heart? Tune in on November 4th.
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Warren »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
30 Apr 2020, 10:54
But will he win Warren's heart? Tune in on November 4th May 25.
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Taktix® »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
29 Apr 2020, 22:29
So is Amash supposed to pull votes from Biden or Trump? Because i'm really confused.
Let's game this out though.

I'm starting to see what Dr. T was saying about sounding too many alarms (I know, I know), because the Twitter left is convinced he's on the Mafiya take or otherwise working for Trumpworld. To be fair, Amash was getting lots of financial support from the DeVos family (Amway was founded just outside Grand Rapids) up until last May when they had a rather public split.

Could it be a real break? And if so, a spoiler campaign may also be some sort of attempt to get back into their graces? Was it the plan all along?

I personally don't think so. If Amash is faking it, he's doing a really good job. He has been spot on as a critic of Trump from a libertarian perspective in that it would be hard to be that consistent without having some real core pro-liberty values guiding his thinking. The MI3 has been a solid GOP district for decades, so he's been taking on a lot of professional risk by taking his stands and his eventual party swapping.

The left does this every fucking cycle, I guess after the Nader experience* in 2000. They do things like take the total votes Trump won by in Michigan (like 40k-ish) and then point to the number of votes Gary got (like 140k in MI or thereabouts) and say "See! Look how many votes Hillary lost!" as if all those LP votes would have gone D or even showed up in the first place.

I think the LP pulls from both parties more proportionally and if anything probably more from the right. An Amash run should help beat Trump by giving lifetime GOP'ers who dislike Trump but can't vote D someone else to vote for.

But I also think it sucks, since I really like Amash and would have voted for him in 2016 and previous. But I'm currently caucusing with the Democrats as a single-issue anti-Russian-puppet voter and will continue to do so until we actually have all US-backed candidates again (that goes for you too Tulsi and Bernie and Jesse Ventura's maybe pending Green Party run).

So barring any future foreign threats I'm all in for Amash 2024, and I hope 2020 is his practice run, like Gee Jay did in 2012. But unless Trump somehow collapses the Democrats (possible) and/or the LP has a real poll-able chance of winning, it pains me to realize I just can't support the 1st seemingly decent small-l libertarian candidate this year, in part because I don't think we'll have anything close to a legitimate election in 2024 if Trump gets term two...

Image

*I left Jill Stein out of this for two reasons:

1. Liberals have reason to be paranoid since she is wholly a Russian asset. The 2016 picture with her and Putin and Flynn is damning enough, but she's also a regular on RT now and is barely even trying to hide it anymore.
2. She got even fewer votes in 2016 than the LP and therefore was even less of a spoiler than Gary was (or wasn't)...

ETA: Some Data https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... r-for-whom
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Warren »

Taktix® wrote:
30 Apr 2020, 22:46
Let's game this out though.

I'm starting to see what Dr. T was saying about sounding too many alarms (I know, I know), because the Twitter left is convinced he's on the Mafiya take or otherwise working for Trumpworld. To be fair, Amash was getting lots of financial support from the DeVos family (Amway was founded just outside Grand Rapids) up until last May when they had a rather public split.

Could it be a real break? And if so, a spoiler campaign may also be some sort of attempt to get back into their graces? Was it the plan all along?

I personally don't think so. If Amash is faking it, he's doing a really good job. He has been spot on as a critic of Trump from a libertarian perspective in that it would be hard to be that consistent without having some real core pro-liberty values guiding his thinking. The MI3 has been a solid GOP district for decades, so he's been taking on a lot of professional risk by taking his stands and his eventual party swapping.

The left does this every fucking cycle, I guess after the Nader experience* in 2000. They do things like take the total votes Trump won by in Michigan (like 40k-ish) and then point to the number of votes Gary got (like 140k in MI or thereabouts) and say "See! Look how many votes Hillary lost!" as if all those LP votes would have gone D or even showed up in the first place.

I think the LP pulls from both parties more proportionally and if anything probably more from the right. An Amash run should help beat Trump by giving lifetime GOP'ers who dislike Trump but can't vote D someone else to vote for.
That... is a surprisingly astute assessment.
Taktix® wrote:
30 Apr 2020, 22:46
But I also think it sucks, since I really like Amash and would have voted for him in 2016 and previous. But I'm currently caucusing with the Democrats as a single-issue anti-Russian-puppet voter and will continue to do so until we actually have all US-backed candidates again (that goes for you too Tulsi and Bernie and Jesse Ventura's maybe pending Green Party run).
oh :(
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Jesse Ventura is a russian puppet?
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Eric the .5b »

Really, I'm trying to figure out who, exactly, would vote Blue in this election unless Justin freakin' Amash got the LP nomination.

Do they have weird pale, faceted faces and say things like, "Me am leaving!" when they arrive somewhere?
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Pham Nuwen »

Guys. Now bear with me here. Because it's big brain time ....

Amash should run for president as the Democratic Partys nominee.

Wrap your head around that.
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by JasonL »

I think the most likely pull Amash would have, not significant but some, would be never trumper conservatives who can't handle Biden if anything more palatable is available. Blues won't do it not even the Bernistas who hate Biden and everything he represents. Amash is not a thing they can swallow. Trumpkins won't do it. Crossover nominally republican never trumpers might.

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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by thoreau »

Yeah, I think Jason is right about Amash drawing Never Trump Republicans.

And Berners who need to bolt will vote Green or stay home.

Ok, there's probably somebody somewhere who likes Bernie and Amash, because the world is a big and strange place, but they aren't driving the numbers here.
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Jadagul
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Jadagul »

The big question is whether Amash attracts more disaffected Republicans who were otherwise going to hold their noses and vote for Biden, or disaffected Republicans who were otherwise going to hold their noses and vote for Trump.

(He will also draw some voters who would not have voted for either Biden or Trump, but that doesn't actually affect the outcome of the election.)

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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Kolohe »

Fewer people are going to vote for Amash than did for Johnson in 2016. That's the marker I'm laying down.
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Kolohe »

There's a significant non zero chance that Amash is not even the libertarian nominee methinks. There's got to be a coterie of people that are tired of the 'name brand' politicians swooping in for the Libertarian party nomination - first Barr, then Johnson, now Amash. Not sure if that coterie is sufficiently large to be a critical mass.
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Taktix® »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
01 May 2020, 17:13
Jesse Ventura is a russian puppet?
I mean, he has his own show on Russia Today.

Is that enough?

https://www.rt.com/shows/the-world-according-to-jesse/
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Taktix® »

Kolohe wrote:
01 May 2020, 21:59
Fewer people are going to vote for Amash than did for Johnson in 2016. That's the marker I'm laying down.
This. And in no small part because the clampdown might fuck ballot access far more than past cycles...
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Warren »

Kolohe wrote:
01 May 2020, 22:02
There's a significant non zero chance that Amash is not even the libertarian nominee methinks. There's got to be a coterie of people that are tired of the 'name brand' politicians swooping in for the Libertarian party nomination - first Barr, then Johnson Weld, now Amash. Not sure if that coterie is sufficiently large to be a critical mass.
Johnson 2012 was legitimate Libertarian.
I'd have thought the reformers would have given up and gone home by now. But I guess they're looking for the "right" name brand guy. Amash will certainly have his critics, but I think he could pass the purity test if he's willing.
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Warren »

Taktix® wrote:
02 May 2020, 03:44
Kolohe wrote:
01 May 2020, 21:59
Fewer people are going to vote for Amash than did for Johnson in 2016. That's the marker I'm laying down.
This. And in no small part because the clampdown might fuck ballot access far more than past cycles...
No question.
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Warren »

The 5thC interview, or more like Special Guest Justin Amash, was better than the interview with Gillespie. You can listen to it, or if you prefer read it, here.


For a host of reasons, I think his campaign will be disappointing even by LP standards. But I do like the cut of his jib. Maybe he's laying track for 2024, or even a 2022 run for the House as a Libertarian.
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Kolohe »

As far as I can tell he is also running concurrently this year for the house seat he has now. But the beer flu has changed a lot of deadlines, so it’s not clear if it’s official official yet. (Or if Michigan has one of those rules where you can’t run for two contests at once)
https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan%27s_3r ... tion,_2020
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Shem
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Shem »

I think it's less setting himself up for 2024 and more setting himself up as the leader of the Trump opposition when Trump loses and the backlash comes.
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Warren »

Shem wrote:
06 May 2020, 18:14
I think it's less setting himself up for 2024 and more setting himself up as the leader of the Trump opposition when Trump loses and the backlash comes.
It's one thing to oppose policy, vote against leadership, even vote for impeachment, in order to stake out a tenable position once the populist is on the outs. It's another thing to turn your back on the party itself. I think he's set the bridge to the GOP on fire.
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Hugh Akston »

Warren wrote:
06 May 2020, 19:15
Shem wrote:
06 May 2020, 18:14
I think it's less setting himself up for 2024 and more setting himself up as the leader of the Trump opposition when Trump loses and the backlash comes.
It's one thing to oppose policy, vote against leadership, even vote for impeachment, in order to stake out a tenable position once the populist is on the outs. It's another thing to turn your back on the party itself. I think he's set the bridge to the GOP on fire.
The man and the party are the same thing right now. That won't last forever. If Team Red ever finds some principles again, Amash might well want back in and might well be welcomed back in.
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Shem
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Re: A*M*A*S*H

Post by Shem »

Warren wrote:
06 May 2020, 19:15
Shem wrote:
06 May 2020, 18:14
I think it's less setting himself up for 2024 and more setting himself up as the leader of the Trump opposition when Trump loses and the backlash comes.
It's one thing to oppose policy, vote against leadership, even vote for impeachment, in order to stake out a tenable position once the populist is on the outs. It's another thing to turn your back on the party itself.
Worked out OK for Ron Paul
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