How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

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Jadagul
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by Jadagul » 01 Jan 2019, 18:54

JasonL wrote:
01 Jan 2019, 09:34
Would you have impeached Carter if he had put peanut farm in family trust.

To be clear, my concern has nothing to do with fairness to the person seeking office. It has to do with the significance to voters of that party having won an election.
If Trump is removed from office, the president will still be a Republican.

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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by Warren » 01 Jan 2019, 19:17

So?
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 01 Jan 2019, 20:11

Jadagul wrote:
01 Jan 2019, 18:54
JasonL wrote:
01 Jan 2019, 09:34
Would you have impeached Carter if he had put peanut farm in family trust.

To be clear, my concern has nothing to do with fairness to the person seeking office. It has to do with the significance to voters of that party having won an election.
If Trump is removed from office, the president will still be a Republican.
I believe what you meant to say was that if Trump is removed the president will actually be a Republican.

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thoreau
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by thoreau » 01 Jan 2019, 20:20

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
01 Jan 2019, 20:11
Jadagul wrote:
01 Jan 2019, 18:54
JasonL wrote:
01 Jan 2019, 09:34
Would you have impeached Carter if he had put peanut farm in family trust.

To be clear, my concern has nothing to do with fairness to the person seeking office. It has to do with the significance to voters of that party having won an election.
If Trump is removed from office, the president will still be a Republican.
I believe what you meant to say was that if Trump is removed the president will actually be a Republican.
(Emphasis added)

And this is the mystery that I don't quite get. Pence is undeniably an authentic conservative (at least to the extent that an elected official can be authentically anything), and he would be far more effective than Trump when it comes to pushing elements of a conservative agenda through Congress. The GOP base should be salivating at the prospect. Frankly, I'm kind of surprised that they haven't embraced the impeachment of Trump as a way of getting Pence through the backdoor. (Insert-Pence-closet-case-joke-here.)

But if Trump were removed, instead of singing "Hallelujah! We have a genuine Christian Authoritarian in power!" they'd be screaming bloody murder about how they were robbed. Yes, as a populist Trump no doubt gets some of his support from people who might not be committed Republicans, but those aren't people that Republican Senators and Representatives need to worry about during the primaries.
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Kolohe
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by Kolohe » 01 Jan 2019, 20:24

I do think the Republicans assess correctly that replacing Trump with Pence thru either impeachment or 25th amendment means would collapse the wave function as such.
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by thoreau » 01 Jan 2019, 20:40

Kolohe wrote:
01 Jan 2019, 20:24
I do think the Republicans assess correctly that replacing Trump with Pence thru either impeachment or 25th amendment means would collapse the wave function as such.
Not quite following your metaphor.

Is it related to the fact that if the public disliked Pence's governance it would be impossible to say "Well, you know, the problem is that he just wasn't enough of a REAL conservative!"? That they'd finally get an unambiguous test of whether the public likes hard core conservative governance?
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by Aresen » 01 Jan 2019, 20:42

Pence would certainly push the limits of Church/State separation.
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by Kolohe » 01 Jan 2019, 20:53

As long as Trump is prez, there's still the cult of personality among the core MAGAnauts, and outside that, enough hazy doublethink among right wing anti-anti Trumpers to believe that Trump is delivering the conservative goods and attacks upon him are just librul haterade.

If he gets kicked out, I think that would possibly make the latter group reconsider their position and see him clearly as the charlatan he's always been. As for the former group, most might still treat him as a martyr, but more than a few might start to think of him as a loser.

Either way, I think impeachment and removal is basically political chemotherapy, that's going to definitely make the party that was in power weaker in the short term, even if does purge all the bad stuff.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by thoreau » 01 Jan 2019, 21:17

If impeachment and removal are off the table then what do we say to some future nominee who owns a controlling interest in a company that would benefit from certain changes to healthcare policy? What do we say to a future nominee who owns a controlling interest in a private military contractor and would benefit from all sorts of covert ops shenanigans? What do we say to a future nominee who owns a controlling interest in any business that would like to expand into countries where the US has high-stakes diplomatic negotiations happening?

There are two possible ways that the history books might summarize this era:
1) "They tried to punish the corrupt leader and then his followers freaked the fuck out and everything became never-ending tit-for-tat until it all went to shit."
2) "The leader was corrupt as fuck, the people said 'Eh', so then his successors went even farther and it all went to shit."

At least the first story has good guys in it, even if they do lose.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Kolohe
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by Kolohe » 01 Jan 2019, 21:32

Doing the right thing is almost never rewarding politically, that why that one dude wrote the whole Profiles in Courage thing.

All we can basically count on now is the 2020 election gives us an entirely new set of issues to complain about.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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JasonL
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by JasonL » 01 Jan 2019, 21:40

I’m not taking removal off the table I’m taking it off the table unless there’s good evidence of a fairly bright line consensus crime or violation.

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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by Eric the .5b » 01 Jan 2019, 21:45

Kolohe wrote:
01 Jan 2019, 21:32
Doing the right thing is almost never rewarding politically, that why that one dude wrote the whole Profiles in Courage thing.
I thought it was because his boss, then-senator JFK, wanted him to.
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by Aresen » 01 Jan 2019, 22:54

750 days folks, 750 days. If the FSM is with us.
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 01 Jan 2019, 22:55

JasonL wrote:
01 Jan 2019, 21:40
I’m not taking removal off the table I’m taking it off the table unless there’s good evidence of a fairly bright line consensus crime or violation.
I'm not quite sure how to parse that. Are you saying that no matter how strong a consensus may build up to be that Trump is mentally and emotionally unfit, he should be left in office? Because I have near-Cartesian certainty he is mentally and emotionally unfit; we just lack the consensus, and the only reasons we lack the consensus is that his supporters fail to admit the abundantly obvious and politicians are more profiles of cravenness.

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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by JasonL » 01 Jan 2019, 23:36

No I'm saying if you don't have a substantial consensus that things X, Y, and Z are definitely the case and rise to the level of unfitness you shouldn't keep trying things to get something to stick. I don't think you can get there with emoluments as it stands because there simply isn't agreement that market transactions are emoluments.

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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 01 Jan 2019, 23:47

I don't think that's why the Emoluments Clause would fail as a cause of action; I think it's a can of worms Congress has no more desire to see opened than Trump does. But I otherwise agree and I don't think the public gives a rat's ass. Pay to play isn't exactly a new idea in D.C., either.

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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by Shem » 01 Jan 2019, 23:58

JasonL wrote:
01 Jan 2019, 23:36
I don't think you can get there with emoluments as it stands because there simply isn't agreement that market transactions are emoluments.
How do you think consensus arises, exactly?
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by Mo » 02 Jan 2019, 02:04

The thing about Pence is that he was going to lose reelection in Indiana. What makes one think he could win a national election?
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 02 Jan 2019, 03:10

Mo wrote:
02 Jan 2019, 02:04
The thing about Pence is that he was going to lose reelection in Indiana. What makes one think he could win a national election?
You mean aside from the technical fact that he already has?

I don't know anything about Indiana politics, so I'll just take your word for that, but I think he's managed to be a sufficiently loyal cypher in the public eye that he could ride on whatever coattails Trump has left after he's out of office. That's not nothing. Plus he's a Dominionist, which is enough for any sane person to vote against him but, in case you haven't noticed, the electorate is largely insane. Big-Box Evangelicals would spluge more over Pence than Louis C.K. over a green room filled with willing female open mic-ers. Collection plate money would flow like manna from heaven.

I'm not saying he would win, but I can certainly imagine it happening, especially if the Dems are true to form.

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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by thoreau » 02 Jan 2019, 03:39

If Trump left office early, by one means or another, the media would feel obligated to give Pence a honeymoon as a reward for being less insane than Trump. Still insane, mind you--he is, after all, a Dominionist--but at least less insane.

Even a lot of lefties might spend five minutes saying "Isn't it nice to have a president who won't rage tweet us into WWIII?" That good will would be short lived, but it would help him with some swing voters.

I'd still lay odds against him, but not huge odds.
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by JasonL » 02 Jan 2019, 10:26

Shem wrote:
01 Jan 2019, 23:58
JasonL wrote:
01 Jan 2019, 23:36
I don't think you can get there with emoluments as it stands because there simply isn't agreement that market transactions are emoluments.
How do you think consensus arises, exactly?
I'm saying don't do it unless it's pretty obvious - that's what I mean by high bar. Maybe I can wrangle consensus for jay walking or drunk driving or whatever I can throw against the wall in some political environments. We should not be doing that.

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Eric the .5b
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by Eric the .5b » 02 Jan 2019, 16:58

I will suggest that there's a serious destabilizing consequence to the policy of letting presidents get away with everything. It's the sort of thing that encourages more marginal and less peaceable people to look into second amendment solutions and other violent reactions.

(It's occurred to me that the hardcore MAGA-heads getting disillusioned with Trump might actually be worse than them staying devoted to him, if that break encourages political violence.)
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by Aresen » 02 Jan 2019, 17:32

Eric the .5b wrote:
02 Jan 2019, 16:58
(It's occurred to me that the hardcore MAGA-heads getting disillusioned with Trump might actually be worse than them staying devoted to him, if that break encourages political violence.)
Short of Trump on his knees fellating 'el chapo' in a public place, I don't see that happening. But if it did, I think you are correct about the nuttier 'survivalist' types.

His approval rating (according to 538 a few moments ago) is still 41%. It would have to drop to something like 25% before the GOP caucus would turn on him.

I'm still hoping we only have 2 more years instead of 6.

In the meantime: TEAM ATHEROSCLEROSIS!!!
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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 02 Jan 2019, 17:49

If I had to bet, I'd bet Trump's approval ratings are soft. There's an underlying core for whom he can do no wrong or, more to the point, they don't care if he does, but the rest are lukewarm in their support and would care about his removal about as much as they would care if their favorite TV show was cancelled.

Both the nation and the government are sufficiently strong that we can survive vastly more upheaval than the Trump Administration has so far created or than his removal from office would create.

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Re: How do you solve a problem like a MAGA?

Post by lunchstealer » 02 Jan 2019, 17:55

Warren wrote:
30 Dec 2018, 10:32
lunchstealer wrote:
30 Dec 2018, 04:27

You're fucking delusional, excusing shit for Trump that you'd never tolerate if someone did it to you. You're so caught up in how superior you are to people who objection to Trump that you're going off the deep end to dismiss any and all criticism.
See this is what i'm talking about. This reaction is way over the top for what we're talking about.
Yes indeed, I would have no tolerance for someone hacking my email. But that doesn't make him unfit for office. It's not an impeachable offense. The security and prosperity of the Republic are not affected by it. If his cronies are put away for it, fine. If after he's out of office he's put away for it fine. But that this should be the priority of Congress, putting all other business aside while we bring down the President? For this? You can't be serious. I mean, I see that you are serious, but I think you've gone off the deep end.

I don't dismiss the criticism of Trump. Indeed I'm highly critical of both his immigration policy and trade policy. But like the criticism of Obama I find it to be all sports bar and no substance. Everything is about how horrible he is and once we finally defeat him, everything will be magically better in America.
It's not helping.
So I've sat on this, trying to come at it from your POV, and I just can't do it. If he encouraged it at all (and his 'joke' on national television did, but I'm willing to agree to disagree on that) then that's bullshit. Worse, he has actively criticized and seems to have tried to curtail the investigation into direct Russian interference in our elections. You cannot tell me that interfering in an investigation into Russian ops against the US has no effect on the security of the nation. If he's innocent of actual participation in the hacking, and his people were just kind of regularly corrupt, that isn't necessarily impeachable. Money laundering or some such prior to taking office is maybe not impeachable. One could certainly make that argument. But interfering with American counter-espionage efforts for personal political gain pretty much has to be at the top of the high crimes list.

And even if you don't buy the national security angle, which would be kinda nuts, if he did encourage Russian hacking against Team Blue for his own gain, that's a level of corruption that absolutely has to be impeachable. If you'd say the same about a county sheriff who engaged in similar corruption - that they should be excused from any consequences for participating in serious crimes against opponents or critics until they're out of office in two to six years - then you're at least consistent, but you're batshit crazy. You don't let people be complicit in felonies with actual victims - (theft and disclosure of private emails counts as a felony with an actual victim) - hold on to power that includes power over law enforcement.

And I don't even insist that you have the exact same analysis as me, but when you call me delusional for having this analysis, that's actually crazy, and it's why people don't take your protestations that you don't support Trump seriously. You might have some quibbles with individual stances, but you seem to think that everyone who doesn't align with your exact level of blase disregard for him is some sort of left-wing lunatic, and that's bullshit.
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