Pleading the 25th

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Number 6
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Pleading the 25th

Post by Number 6 » 11 Oct 2017, 22:39

Here is your spot for discussion and/or dismissal of hopes that at some point in the next four years, the 25th Amendment will be invoked to remove the Toddler in Chief.
Sooo....begin!
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the innominate one
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by the innominate one » 11 Oct 2017, 23:09

The sooner the better, but can we get rid of Pence first?
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Aresen » 12 Oct 2017, 00:58

the innominate one wrote:
11 Oct 2017, 23:09
The sooner the better, but can we get rid of Pence first?
Sadly, even Pence would be an improvement.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Aresen » 12 Oct 2017, 01:02

On the Orange President Thread Shem wrote:
11 Oct 2017, 23:22
the innominate one wrote:
11 Oct 2017, 22:29
Jennifer- section 4 can be invoked by the cabinet. They don't have to wait for congress to act.
In that situation, all he has to do to un-invoke it is to send a letter to Congress saying "hey guys, I'm still the Pres, lol." Then, they can un-un-invoke it by sending another letter, at which point Congress has 48 hours to reconvene, and 21 days to decide the issue. So, unless you have Congress on your side, you might as well not do it.
The technicalities aside, the shit-show if the Cabinet attempted to do it would be epic.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Warren » 12 Oct 2017, 01:43

If the office has to be filled, let it be this guy.
I'll take Trump over W or the Chosen One any day. Things are getting worse at the slowest rate since Y2K.
I'm pretty sure I'd like Paul better. Anyone else runs from a tossup to FUCK NO.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Jennifer » 12 Oct 2017, 01:49

Warren wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 01:43
I'll take Trump over W or the Chosen One any day. Things are getting worse at the slowest rate since Y2K.
For relatively well-off white guys, perhaps. And extra-sociopathic people in ICE. Everyone else, not so much.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Shem » 12 Oct 2017, 01:54

the innominate one wrote:
11 Oct 2017, 23:09
The sooner the better, but can we get rid of Pence first?
Only if we can also move Ryan out of the line. I can live with President Hatch.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Warren » 12 Oct 2017, 01:55

Jennifer wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 01:49
Warren wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 01:43
I'll take Trump over W or the Chosen One any day. Things are getting worse at the slowest rate since Y2K.
For relatively well-off white guys, perhaps. And extra-sociopathic people in ICE. Everyone else, not so much.
OH PUUUUL-EEEEASE
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Jennifer » 12 Oct 2017, 02:44

Warren wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 01:55
Jennifer wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 01:49
Warren wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 01:43
I'll take Trump over W or the Chosen One any day. Things are getting worse at the slowest rate since Y2K.
For relatively well-off white guys, perhaps. And extra-sociopathic people in ICE. Everyone else, not so much.
OH PUUUUL-EEEEASE
What an eloquent counterargument that is.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by thoreau » 12 Oct 2017, 02:58

Successful use of the 25th requires 2/3 of both the House and Senate, to sustain a Cabinet challenge against the President. My guess is that if that many Republicans were willing to bolt they'd probably impeach over conflicts of interest and/or whatever Mueller finds. That way Pence is President, not just Acting President (per the text of the 25th Amendment) and Trump is gone and out of their hair without any question marks about him returning.

Remember, the only way they are getting rid of him (by whatever mechanism) is if they determine that his continuance in office is bad for their re-election prospects. Impeachment is a hard repudiation, which would play well with liberals, centrists, and whichever conservatives walk away from him to embolden the Congressional Republicans. There's no "Donnie is a good guy, shame that age has taken its toll" in an impeachment, it's a hard "Fuck this guy, he's hurting the country" move. If they think they can get rid of him then I think they'll do it good and hard. If they don't think they can get away with it then they'll leave him there, even as he starts flinging poo at the walls while drunk-dialing Russia.

My fear is that old age and fast food do a number on him and he dies in office. No matter what the coroner might say, no matter what the evidence might be, there would be a lot of lunatics insisting he was murdered (and, to be fair, 80% of Congress would probably be willing to slip something in his food if they thought they could get away with it) and I worry what they might do. We need him lawfully removed by Congress, not by arterial blockage.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by the innominate one » 12 Oct 2017, 07:49

If the cabinet invokes the 25th, there is no reason they can't provide details on their reasoning, true or not, that congress either could use as justification or would be unable to ignore. I think it's likely that there are legitimate reasons to doubt his ability to fulfill the duties of the office. We see plenty of evidence publicly, such as his temperament, there is likely more that is kept from public view.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by the innominate one » 12 Oct 2017, 10:03

This is a stupid way to go about things, as is typical for dems

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/12/us/p ... &smtyp=cur
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Dangerman » 12 Oct 2017, 10:31

We have an impeachment thread. This board is showing symptoms of TDS.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by thoreau » 12 Oct 2017, 10:33

the innominate one wrote:If the cabinet invokes the 25th, there is no reason they can't provide details on their reasoning, true or not, that congress either could use as justification or would be unable to ignore. I think it's likely that there are legitimate reasons to doubt his ability to fulfill the duties of the office. We see plenty of evidence publicly, such as his temperament, there is likely more that is kept from public view.
There are plenty of reasons that you and I would find legitimate. The question is whether there are reasons that would be seen as legitimate by the people who determine if a Republican Representative or Senator wine re-election. And I don't think they will accept his removal by any mechanism at the moment. Short of an unambiguous medical emergency like a stroke or whatever, I think they will resist his removal unless he finds a way to alienate his base. (Which, to be fair, he may very well do at some point.)

If he does alienate them and Congressional Republicans feel safe removing him, I think they'll decide to impeach, because the last clause of the 25th leaves some ambiguity as to whether/when/how a President could be reinstated later, if Congress decides to reverse its decision--ig only says that if 2/3 of Congress goes against him the VP is "Acting" President, implying that he could still be brought back. And I don't think they'd want him out there campaigning to be brought back.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by the innominate one » 12 Oct 2017, 10:37

Dangerman wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 10:31
We have an impeachment thread. This board is showing symptoms of TDS.
Or absent-mindedness. It's not possible to remember every thread created. I'm betting Six in particular has had other things on his mind.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by the innominate one » 12 Oct 2017, 10:43

Thoreau - fair points, but it seems to me that moderate congressional republicans could use impeachment to win moderate voters and even win some liberal leaning voters with the right public presentation, and could potentially be re-elected even without Trump's base. Especially with the far left becoming more extreme and reactionary. They're turning off rational moderate liberals with their excesses.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 12 Oct 2017, 10:49

Potentially relevant phenomenon re the powerful collapsing in short order due to suppressed opposition:

http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com ... ssion.html

That said, while the cabinet invoking 25 might be the enzyme needed to set off a chain reaction, I am pretty skeptical. Trump, unlike Weinstein and Ceaucescu, has a lot of actual supporters who do not put themselves at risk by staying with him.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by thoreau » 12 Oct 2017, 10:54

the innominate one wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 10:43
Thoreau - fair points, but it seems to me that moderate congressional republicans could use impeachment to win moderate voters and even win some liberal leaning voters with the right public presentation, and could potentially be re-elected even without Trump's base. Especially with the far left becoming more extreme and reactionary. They're turning off rational moderate liberals with their excesses.
As soon as moderates and liberal-leaning voters compose a substantial fraction of the GOP primary voters standing between an incumbent and the November general election, I'm sure that Congressional Republicans will care deeply about appealing to them.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by the innominate one » 12 Oct 2017, 11:00

Open primaries + persuade moderate liberals to change their party affiliation during the primary.

Ok, unlikely. But I changed my party affiliation from libertarian to republican to vote for Ron Paul, and then to democrat to vote for Bernie. It would require a lot of effort to educate voters, but the republican party has the money to make it happen.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by thoreau » 12 Oct 2017, 11:03

the innominate one wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 11:00
Ok, unlikely. But I changed my party affiliation from libertarian to republican to vote for Ron Paul, and then to democrat to vote for Bernie. It would require a lot of effort to educate voters, but the republican party has the money to make it happen.
Then go lobby more liberals and moderates to do like you. But for now very few of them choose to do whatever it takes to vote in a GOP primary in their states, and the Congressional Republicans won't listen to them until they start doing that. GOP primary electorates are staunchly conservative at the moment.

Look, we can sit here all day and say "They could care if..." but as long as the words following "if..." do not hold true they won't care.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by the innominate one » 12 Oct 2017, 11:05

Who's the they In they could care if?
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by thoreau » 12 Oct 2017, 11:18

the innominate one wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 11:05
Who's the they In they could care if?
The Congressional Republicans.

Deep down inside, most or all of the Congressional Republicans probably want Trump gone. He's a thorn in their side. But the people that they (the Congressional Republicans) answer to in primaries still support Trump. As long as those people (the GOP primary voters) support Trump the Congressional Republicans cannot safely remove him. Persuade enough liberals and moderates to vote in GOP primaries (via whatever processes apply in their states) and they (the Congressional Republicans) will care what liberals and moderates think and act accordingly. Until then, the Congressional Republicans will not base their decisions on the opinions of liberals and moderates.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Shem » 12 Oct 2017, 13:53

Are these the same moderate Republicans who were going to keep Trump from the White House?
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by lunchstealer » 12 Oct 2017, 14:27

Shem wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 13:53
Are these the same moderate Republicans who were going to keep Trump from the White House?
Well, in the primary, they were split too many ways to get the early momentum. If Kasich and others had dropped out earlier, we might have either a president Cruz or president Hdawg. Not happy with either option, but it's a thing. If the Bush/Rubio/Graham wing had consolidated behind Kasich early enough, we'd definitely have a President Kasich. That at least would be better than what we've got.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by the innominate one » 12 Oct 2017, 14:45

What the midday meal kleptomaniac said. You've got to think congressional republicans recognize that getting South Korea incinerated on their watch will be bad for their re-election chances.

If we can believe polls (and I realize we should be pretty skeptical of them), Trump's negatives are pretty negative, even taken with a salt lick's worth of salt.
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