Pleading the 25th

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Painboy
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Painboy » 12 Oct 2017, 15:35

lunchstealer wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 14:27
Shem wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 13:53
Are these the same moderate Republicans who were going to keep Trump from the White House?
Well, in the primary, they were split too many ways to get the early momentum. If Kasich and others had dropped out earlier, we might have either a president Cruz or president Hdawg. Not happy with either option, but it's a thing. If the Bush/Rubio/Graham wing had consolidated behind Kasich early enough, we'd definitely have a President Kasich. That at least would be better than what we've got.
I would also point out that Trump's approval ratings indicate there's clearly been some buyers remorse by many since the election. If you ran the primaries again now I don't see Trump having much success. I know incumbents are always said to have the advantage but at this point I'm not sure it's enough to make his candidacy a lock.

That brings up another thought. If Trump didn't win the party's primary what would he do? There would be months where he would be a lame duck in the run up to the election.

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thoreau
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by thoreau » 12 Oct 2017, 15:37

The important question right now is not which elections Trump can/would win, but how somebody will fare in a 2018 primary if they vote to remove Trump from office (by whatever mechanism).
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Jennifer » 12 Oct 2017, 16:34

Painboy wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 15:35
lunchstealer wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 14:27
Shem wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 13:53
Are these the same moderate Republicans who were going to keep Trump from the White House?
Well, in the primary, they were split too many ways to get the early momentum. If Kasich and others had dropped out earlier, we might have either a president Cruz or president Hdawg. Not happy with either option, but it's a thing. If the Bush/Rubio/Graham wing had consolidated behind Kasich early enough, we'd definitely have a President Kasich. That at least would be better than what we've got.
I would also point out that Trump's approval ratings indicate there's clearly been some buyers remorse by many since the election. If you ran the primaries again now I don't see Trump having much success. I know incumbents are always said to have the advantage but at this point I'm not sure it's enough to make his candidacy a lock.
I agree that if all Americans knew then what they know now, Trump likely would not have won the primaries--if the various Republican wannabe presidents also were wise enough to get their shit together and have a bunch of them bow out and not-run, rather than dilute the voter pool the way they did. But -- regarding the Trump voters who now give him low approval ratings -- a lot of them still seem to cling to the idea "Yeah, well, at least he's not Hillary."

So, again assuming everyone a year ago had today's knowledge, I'm still not convinced Trump would've lost in a Trump-v-Hillary election. He almost certainly would've lost some voters we've read about, like the "immigrants who voted for Trump and then were dismayed to discover his anti-immigrant rhetoric was directed against them," but enough to actually lose the electoral college? I dunno -- I rather doubt Warren is the only white American to say things like "I'll take Trump over W or the Chosen One any day. Things are getting worse at the slowest rate since Y2K."
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Shem
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Shem » 12 Oct 2017, 16:50

Can anybody point me to moderate Republicans primarying out a nut in favor of a moderate? I've seen them hold off insurgents, but once the seats fall, they're gone. Congressional gerrymandering all but guarantees it. They're already setting up how they're going to rationalize continuing to make unhappy noises while doing nothing and relying on slime like Devin Nunez to make sure nothing too dangerous to them comes out.

Hell, I'd settle for someone to tell me what a moderate Republican looks like, at this point.
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Painboy
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Painboy » 12 Oct 2017, 17:16

Jennifer wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 16:34
Painboy wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 15:35
lunchstealer wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 14:27
Shem wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 13:53
Are these the same moderate Republicans who were going to keep Trump from the White House?
Well, in the primary, they were split too many ways to get the early momentum. If Kasich and others had dropped out earlier, we might have either a president Cruz or president Hdawg. Not happy with either option, but it's a thing. If the Bush/Rubio/Graham wing had consolidated behind Kasich early enough, we'd definitely have a President Kasich. That at least would be better than what we've got.
I would also point out that Trump's approval ratings indicate there's clearly been some buyers remorse by many since the election. If you ran the primaries again now I don't see Trump having much success. I know incumbents are always said to have the advantage but at this point I'm not sure it's enough to make his candidacy a lock.
I agree that if all Americans knew then what they know now, Trump likely would not have won the primaries--if the various Republican wannabe presidents also were wise enough to get their shit together and have a bunch of them bow out and not-run, rather than dilute the voter pool the way they did. But -- regarding the Trump voters who now give him low approval ratings -- a lot of them still seem to cling to the idea "Yeah, well, at least he's not Hillary."

So, again assuming everyone a year ago had today's knowledge, I'm still not convinced Trump would've lost in a Trump-v-Hillary election. He almost certainly would've lost some voters we've read about, like the "immigrants who voted for Trump and then were dismayed to discover his anti-immigrant rhetoric was directed against them," but enough to actually lose the electoral college? I dunno -- I rather doubt Warren is the only white American to say things like "I'll take Trump over W or the Chosen One any day. Things are getting worse at the slowest rate since Y2K."
I agree I don't think Trump would have necessarily lost to HRC either even with today's knowledge. Even with his general craziness he has advanced some conservative agendas. That would be unlikely if HRC is elected. So there would be a reason that people would still vote for him. However, turn out might be lower due to a lack of enthusiasm though which could help HRC.

It's the Republican primary that would get him. If someone else emerges who people believe can do better than Trump in the general, the knives are going to come out and he won't even get to the general election.

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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Jennifer » 12 Oct 2017, 17:25

Painboy wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 17:16

It's the Republican primary that would get him. If someone else emerges who people believe can do better than Trump in the general, the knives are going to come out and he won't even get to the general election.
Of course, the tricky part is that there has to be one single "someone else" emerging, not the dozen-plus or more Trump actually had to face. And the hell of it is, even if the Republican primary wannabes knew then what they know now, I'm still not convinced the bulk of them would've stepped down and said "Okay, fine, let's give the party nomination to ...." I dunno, Rubio? Jeb Bush? Because doing so would require them to put the interests of the party (and by extension the country) ahead of their own ambitions, and if they were prone to do that, they wouldn't be so reluctant to stand up to Trump now.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Painboy » 12 Oct 2017, 18:41

And then I read this and now I'm sad.

http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/ ... till-wrong
The polls that failed to detect the full strength of President Trump on Election Day continue to underestimate the president’s support for the job he is doing, paying way too much attention to the Twitter wars and ignoring the public support for many of the actions is undertaking.
This can create some serious misjudgments by organizations like the NFL and some Republican senators, who find out later that they buck the president only to their own detriment. And nothing was more devastating to Democrats than believing the election was over when it wasn’t.
Remember, Americans liked President Obama for his way with words and his calm leadership style. They just opposed many of his policies, so Obama’s numbers gave a false sense of approval. Trump is the mirror opposite. People are put on edge by his words while favoring a lot of the positions he is taking on issues.
When it comes to rank-and-file Republican voters, Trump is the undisputed leader of the Republican Party. No poll I’ve seen puts his support from Republicans at below 80 percent and we at Harvard-Harris have it at 84 percent, which is remarkable, given his knock-down-drag-out fight with some mainstream Republicans.
ETA: Fixed link
Last edited by Painboy on 12 Oct 2017, 21:10, edited 1 time in total.

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the innominate one
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by the innominate one » 12 Oct 2017, 18:50

People are stupid.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by thoreau » 12 Oct 2017, 18:51

Donald Trump could shoot a toddler in Times Square and 80% of registered Republicans would conclude that the kid must have been here illegally.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Mo » 12 Oct 2017, 18:53

Painboy wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 18:41
Remember, Americans liked President Obama for his way with words and his calm leadership style. They just opposed many of his policies, so Obama’s numbers gave a false sense of approval. Trump is the mirror opposite. People are put on edge by his words while favoring a lot of the positions he is taking on issues.
Wat? Like the healthcare bill the polled under 30% or the tax bill that is unpopular? What policies does Trump have that people support. Also, that link goes to a visual studio login.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Shem » 12 Oct 2017, 18:54

I still can't figure out why people are insistent that the polls were absolute failures last year. The national-level polls were pretty much dead on; the votes were just too concentrated for it to matter in the EC. State-level polls were a different matter, but even then, statisticians were wary of them, since intensive state-level polling for national political office is relatively new.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Mo » 12 Oct 2017, 18:58

Also, Trump's disapproval has gone up by 10 points in every individual state.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 12 Oct 2017, 19:36

Shem wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 18:54
I still can't figure out why people are insistent that the polls were absolute failures last year. The national-level polls were pretty much dead on; the votes were just too concentrated for it to matter in the EC. State-level polls were a different matter, but even then, statisticians were wary of them, since intensive state-level polling for national political office is relatively new.
I think in the margin of error for all the states that counted.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Sandy » 12 Oct 2017, 20:10

I'd still vote for Johnson.
Hindu is the cricket of religions. You can observe it for years, you can have enthusiasts try to explain it to you, and it's still baffling. - Warren

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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Painboy » 12 Oct 2017, 21:10

Mo wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 18:53
Painboy wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 18:41
Remember, Americans liked President Obama for his way with words and his calm leadership style. They just opposed many of his policies, so Obama’s numbers gave a false sense of approval. Trump is the mirror opposite. People are put on edge by his words while favoring a lot of the positions he is taking on issues.
Wat? Like the healthcare bill the polled under 30% or the tax bill that is unpopular? What policies does Trump have that people support. Also, that link goes to a visual studio login.
LOL. Oops. This is why I really shouldn't be posting at work. Link fixed.

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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Mo » 12 Oct 2017, 21:24

Ah, Mark "Obama is unelectable" Penn with some stellar analysis. I guess now he knows why Obama was popular.

Also, his point about the NFL protests fails to point out that kneeling for the flag protest became more popular due to Trump.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Painboy » 12 Oct 2017, 21:33

Mo wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 21:24
Ah, Mark "Obama is unelectable" Penn with some stellar analysis. I guess now he knows why Obama was popular.

Also, his point about the NFL protests fails to point out that kneeling for the flag protest became more popular due to Trump.
I felt his point was more it's not affecting his polling with the people that showed up to elect him last time. So while the majority may hate his antics, they aren't necessarily needed for him to get re-elected. I don't know I if buy all of that myself but Trump seems to have a kind of mental lock on a certain part of this country regardless of his actions.

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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Mo » 12 Oct 2017, 21:39

Painboy wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 21:33
Mo wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 21:24
Ah, Mark "Obama is unelectable" Penn with some stellar analysis. I guess now he knows why Obama was popular.

Also, his point about the NFL protests fails to point out that kneeling for the flag protest became more popular due to Trump.
I felt his point was more it's not affecting his polling with the people that showed up to elect him last time. So while the majority may hate his antics, they aren't necessarily needed for him to get re-elected. I don't know I if buy all of that myself but Trump seems to have a kind of mental lock on a certain part of this country regardless of his actions.
The Trump superfans didn't get him elected. They're not a big enough portion of the population. Hillary superfans voted for her. If was the reluctant Trump voters. That group is going to be harder to measure during the election unless enough abandon him.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Ellie » 12 Oct 2017, 21:43

Painboy wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 21:33
Trump seems to have a kind of mental lock on a certain part of this country regardless of his actions.
David's parents fall into this category. They're very religious and socially conservative; his mom makes Facebook posts lamenting how crude and profane everyone is these days. If a liberal politician said "pussy" they'd literally never stop criticizing him for it. But Trump gets a total pass. They don't even support him because "he's the lesser evil overall, even though I oppose a lot of his statements and behavior" or something. It's just rah-rah-he's-our-guy. It's so fucking gross because it's so fucking hypocritical, from people who I always thought were consistent and well-meaning in their morals even though I personally disagreed with them.
I should have listened to Warren. He was right again as usual.

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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Jadagul » 12 Oct 2017, 22:32

Mo wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 21:39
Painboy wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 21:33
Mo wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 21:24
Ah, Mark "Obama is unelectable" Penn with some stellar analysis. I guess now he knows why Obama was popular.

Also, his point about the NFL protests fails to point out that kneeling for the flag protest became more popular due to Trump.
I felt his point was more it's not affecting his polling with the people that showed up to elect him last time. So while the majority may hate his antics, they aren't necessarily needed for him to get re-elected. I don't know I if buy all of that myself but Trump seems to have a kind of mental lock on a certain part of this country regardless of his actions.
The Trump superfans didn't get him elected. They're not a big enough portion of the population. Hillary superfans voted for her. If was the reluctant Trump voters. That group is going to be harder to measure during the election unless enough abandon him.
Also, his "Strong approve" numbers have dropped a bunch. So it's not like he hasn't alienated his base at least some.

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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Sandy » 12 Oct 2017, 22:48

I get (some) of why people were initially into Trump. But I definitely don't get how they still are all in...what is the continuing appeal? Is it purely ego protection?
Hindu is the cricket of religions. You can observe it for years, you can have enthusiasts try to explain it to you, and it's still baffling. - Warren

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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Jennifer » 12 Oct 2017, 23:00

Sandy wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 22:48
I get (some) of why people were initially into Trump. But I definitely don't get how they still are all in...what is the continuing appeal? Is it purely ego protection?
For some no doubt it's an ego thing, or "Anything or anyone hated by liberals must be good," but I also fear there's a lot more old-school bigots out there than previously thought; it's not just the relative handful hanging out on Stormfront and similar sites. (Nor is it only "old"-school types; most of the Charlottesville tiki Nazis were college-age or thereabouts, far too young to remember and yearn for Jim Crow.)
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Aresen » 13 Oct 2017, 00:26

Sandy wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 22:48
I get (some) of why people were initially into Trump. But I definitely don't get how they still are all in...what is the continuing appeal? Is it purely ego protection?
To go Marxist, I'd say it is the Lumpenproletariat. Trump is their kind of loud-mouthed boor.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by the innominate one » 13 Oct 2017, 10:12

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/10 ... e-advisers
Even before Corker’s remarks, some West Wing advisers were worried that Trump’s behavior could cause the Cabinet to take extraordinary Constitutional measures to remove him from office. Several months ago, according to two sources with knowledge of the conversation, former chief strategist Steve Bannon told Trump that the risk to his presidency wasn’t impeachment, but the 25th Amendment—the provision by which a majority of the Cabinet can vote to remove the president. When Bannon mentioned the 25th Amendment, Trump said, “What’s that?” According to a source, Bannon has told people he thinks Trump has only a 30 percent chance of making it the full term.
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Re: Pleading the 25th

Post by Warren » 13 Oct 2017, 11:11

Ellie wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 21:43
Painboy wrote:
12 Oct 2017, 21:33
Trump seems to have a kind of mental lock on a certain part of this country regardless of his actions.
David's parents fall into this category. They're very religious and socially conservative; his mom makes Facebook posts lamenting how crude and profane everyone is these days. If a liberal politician said "pussy" they'd literally never stop criticizing him for it. But Trump gets a total pass. They don't even support him because "he's the lesser evil overall, even though I oppose a lot of his statements and behavior" or something. It's just rah-rah-he's-our-guy. It's so fucking gross because it's so fucking hypocritical, from people who I always thought were consistent and well-meaning in their morals even though I personally disagreed with them.
Which is exactly the same for every other president.
Women with strollers are legitimately the worst people, and should, like motorcyclists, not be considered people for liability and criminal purposes. - lunchstealer

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