Occam, Trump, and Russia

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Shem
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 15 Jun 2018, 12:36

Paul Manafort has his house arrest revoked for attempted witness tampering.

Money quote:
“I have struggled with this decision,” Judge Amy Berman Jackson said. But she concluded that couldn’t come up with a release order she could issue that would prevent Manafort from further attempts at witness tampering, which he was indicted for last week. “This is not middle school, I can’t take his cell phone,” she said.
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Jennifer
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Jennifer » 15 Jun 2018, 13:26

Shem wrote:
15 Jun 2018, 12:36
Paul Manafort has his house arrest revoked for attempted witness tampering.

Money quote:
“I have struggled with this decision,” Judge Amy Berman Jackson said. But she concluded that couldn’t come up with a release order she could issue that would prevent Manafort from further attempts at witness tampering, which he was indicted for last week. “This is not middle school, I can’t take his cell phone,” she said.
Why are you mentioning Manafort on this thread, Shem? After all, Trump said today that Manafort "has nothing to do with our campaign."
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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 15 Jun 2018, 17:19

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
12 Jun 2018, 00:55
Jadagul wrote:
12 Jun 2018, 00:48
Eric the .5b wrote:
11 Jun 2018, 23:55
Jadagul wrote:
11 Jun 2018, 21:15
Honestly, the fact that so many people think Trump's corruption is normal is probably more threatening than his actual corruption. The damage his corruption is doing is in making that look normal. It's not; it hasn't been in decades; and it's both important to make it abnormal, and to make people believe that it's unusual.
For at least half of Trump supporters, they don't believe the corruption. For the rest, I think they go into straight cognitive dissonance on the matter. It certainly won't be Team Blue that gets them out of it.

I'm not sure that Trump makes anything look normal except to his own supporters. Everybody else, including his ex-supporters, are horrified.

If he's gone after one term, I think his lasting damage will be minimal. At this point, I'd put better odds on Trump alienating his own base, segment by segment, than on the Blues managing to beat him.
I think a lot of Trump's base support comes from people who assume that all politicians are on the take, and Trump is just more honest about it. In the same way that they think everyone is racist, and Trump just isn't afraid to speak his mind.

And that's bad. I don't know how to fix it, but it's bad.

One way my politics have changed over the past couple years is that I increasingly think it's really important to crack down on white-collar crime. Like, certainly, there's white-collar crime that shouldn't be illegal at all, and I don't want to crack down on that. But I increasingly think it's important that we enforce regulations seriously, and treat it as a serious thing when major corporations violate the law. Because otherwise makes people feel like laws don't apply to corporations, or, sometimes, rich people. And that's pretty corrosive to legal legitimacy.
There is a depressing paucity of criminal CEOs in prison.
The Delaware Chancery Court needs to stop being such a pussy and let shareholders occasionally reach CEOs and other officers without indemnification.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Hugh Akston » 22 Jun 2018, 18:18

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 08 Jul 2018, 12:53

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/08/heal ... trump.html

Short version: Some UN-affiliated group is considering a resolution to promote breast-feeding as better for infants than formula. US starts threatening countries that support the resolution. Then Russia supports the resolution. US has no objection.

Leave aside the decoder ring objections to government officials deliberating over how to feed infants. Leave aside the fact that the resolution is pretty benign and breast-feeding is generally good for kids and it's fine if Russia supports it. The basic outline is that we've got international reps doing pretty mundane international meeting stuff, Trump administration acts belligerent, then Russia says "We support the resolution" and US has nothing to say.

To be clear, I'm not saying the US should have rattled sabers against Russia over infant formula. (Especially since Russia was on the more sensible side here.) I repeat: I am not saying that the US should have rattled sabers against Russia over infant formula.

What I am saying is that US diplomats have always had ways of disagreeing with Russians in international forums, ways short of threatening war or whatever. I don't know the specifics, and I doubt Trump knows them either, but the sorts of boring foreign policy functionaries who go to these meetings (and sit a few layers below the White House in the hierarchy) do know how to disagree with Russia in a public forum. Whether or not they SHOULD disagree with Russia on this matter, boring foreign policy functionaries have means by which they can argue for a position that Russia disagrees with.

But a new boss comes in and suddenly nobody is able to disagree with Russia? This doesn't pass the smell test.

Now, I know that somebody will say "What, you want the State Department to issue massive threats against Russia over infant formula?" My answer is no. I don't give a fuck about infant formula. I just find it fascinating that State Department functionaries can fight hard for a stance until Russia comes in, and then they fold. This is new behavior for the US government, and it's at a meeting that I doubt Trump gives one tenth of one shit about.

To be clear, I do NOT think that Putin gave Trump a directive over infant formula and breast-feeding. I repeat: I do NOT think that Putin gave Trump a directive about infant formula and breast-feeding. I doubt either of them paid any attention to this meeting.

What I do think is that the general understanding at the State Department is that nobody disagrees with Russia about anything.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 13 Jul 2018, 12:34

Mueller indicts Russian intelligence officers for DNC hack.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/13/us/p ... cking.html
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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JD
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JD » 13 Jul 2018, 16:08

The indictment itself is an interesting read. The depressing part, in a way, is that mostly it wasn't that sophisticated: spoofed email was sent to Clinton campaign staffers telling them to click an embedded link to log on to Google and change their password, they fell for it, and then the attackers then went through the victim's email account; or they sent email from a slightly misspelled address with an attachment which the victims then opened, etc.

And the whole thing just seems so amateurish - people using their personal Gmail accounts for campaign activities, people emailing each other Excel docs, and so forth. If I were the IT manager for a presidential campaign, I would want all that shit locked down tighter than Fort Knox. I would be constantly reminding people that their activities were of great interest to foreign intelligence services with a great deal of money, time, and motivation.

Another interesting point is that the US seems to have a great deal of information about exactly which operative did what - which suggests that either they have a person on the inside, or the Russian operatives themselves were compromised by some US intelligence service...
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 13 Jul 2018, 16:12

JD wrote:
13 Jul 2018, 16:08
Another interesting point is that the US seems to have a great deal of information about exactly which operative did what - which suggests that either they have a person on the inside, or the Russian operatives themselves were compromised by some US intelligence service...
Maybe the GRU guys got an email asking them to change their passwords...
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Shem
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 13 Jul 2018, 17:08

JD wrote:
13 Jul 2018, 16:08
Another interesting point is that the US seems to have a great deal of information about exactly which operative did what - which suggests that either they have a person on the inside, or the Russian operatives themselves were compromised by some US intelligence service...
The Dutch had inside men in the hacking operation. They were sharing the information they got with US Intel agencies all along. Reportedly they spent most of 2016 screaming at the news like they were watching a horror movie with a particularly stupid protagonist.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JD » 13 Jul 2018, 17:28

Shem wrote:
13 Jul 2018, 17:08

The Dutch had inside men in the hacking operation. They were sharing the information they got with US Intel agencies all along. Reportedly they spent most of 2016 screaming at the news like they were watching a horror movie with a particularly stupid protagonist.
Thanks for mentioning that - there is some good stuff at https://arstechnica.com/information-tec ... acked-dnc/

Not surprisingly, the really sad and scary thing is that Trump's general idiocy and alienation of our allies will probably result in us getting less useful information like this in the future.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 13 Jul 2018, 18:17

This article lays out all of the trails between Trump and Russia over the past 30 years.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... usion.html

And, no, I don't believe that in 1987 the Russians started planning to install him in the White House. I do think that they liked the idea of befriending a rich, well-connected, and vocal American. There are plenty of ways to use a man like that, plenty of interesting things to do with him. And if you befriend enough of those guys, well, one of them might go into politics. Probably not the Presidency (that was a winning lotto ticket) but there are all sorts of ways to make good use of a friend in whatever public office.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 15 Jul 2018, 06:54

JD wrote:The indictment itself is an interesting read. The depressing part, in a way, is that mostly it wasn't that sophisticated: spoofed email was sent to Clinton campaign staffers telling them to click an embedded link to log on to Google and change their password, they fell for it, and then the attackers then went through the victim's email account; or they sent email from a slightly misspelled address with an attachment which the victims then opened, etc.

And the whole thing just seems so amateurish - people using their personal Gmail accounts for campaign activities, people emailing each other Excel docs, and so forth. If I were the IT manager for a presidential campaign, I would want all that shit locked down tighter than Fort Knox. I would be constantly reminding people that their activities were of great interest to foreign intelligence services with a great deal of money, time, and motivation.

Another interesting point is that the US seems to have a great deal of information about exactly which operative did what - which suggests that either they have a person on the inside, or the Russian operatives themselves were compromised by some US intelligence service...
My employer has the strictest, most stringent IT security that I’ve ever encountered in my career and people still get tricked by phishing emails. Recently, they stepped up our anti-phishing efforts, with fake phishing emails coming seemingly weekly (they even made a dedicated “Report as Phishing” button in outlook) and people still fall for that stuff. Based on the reporting on the hectic nature of even well run campaigns, I’m not at all surprised that old normies got fooled.

Especially when you consider the orgs don’t have a history, people come from a ton of different prior organization and such. It’s hard to build a culture of wariness for those sorts of things from scratch without some outside impetus. Something like that happening in 2020, OTOH, would be malpractice.
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Shem
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 15 Jul 2018, 17:57

Mo wrote:
15 Jul 2018, 06:54
It’s hard to build a culture of wariness for those sorts of things from scratch without some outside impetus. Something like that happening in 2020, OTOH, would be malpractice.
Especially when the boss is a geriatric who barely understands email, let alone security technology. Which most campaigners for president are.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JD » 16 Jul 2018, 12:03

Mo wrote:
15 Jul 2018, 06:54
My employer has the strictest, most stringent IT security that I’ve ever encountered in my career and people still get tricked by phishing emails. Recently, they stepped up our anti-phishing efforts, with fake phishing emails coming seemingly weekly (they even made a dedicated “Report as Phishing” button in outlook) and people still fall for that stuff. Based on the reporting on the hectic nature of even well run campaigns, I’m not at all surprised that old normies got fooled.

Especially when you consider the orgs don’t have a history, people come from a ton of different prior organization and such. It’s hard to build a culture of wariness for those sorts of things from scratch without some outside impetus. Something like that happening in 2020, OTOH, would be malpractice.
True, but much of it is about building that culture of wariness. For example, EVERYTHING should have two-factor authentication attached to it. Yes, some of this creates more hassle for workers and IT administrators. And people immediately start whining, "But I need to ____..." And you have to remind them that if they do that, then they get ants Donald Trump wins the election.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by nicole » 16 Jul 2018, 12:58

That presser was extremely fucked up. My favorite part was when Putin was like, "Well, first of all, I used to be an intelligence agent, so I know how dossiers are made." Narrowly beat out "Bill Browder's friends gave Hillary $400 million so we're really interested in getting to the bottom of this too."
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Mo
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Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 16 Jul 2018, 14:59

JD wrote:
Mo wrote:
15 Jul 2018, 06:54
My employer has the strictest, most stringent IT security that I’ve ever encountered in my career and people still get tricked by phishing emails. Recently, they stepped up our anti-phishing efforts, with fake phishing emails coming seemingly weekly (they even made a dedicated “Report as Phishing” button in outlook) and people still fall for that stuff. Based on the reporting on the hectic nature of even well run campaigns, I’m not at all surprised that old normies got fooled.

Especially when you consider the orgs don’t have a history, people come from a ton of different prior organization and such. It’s hard to build a culture of wariness for those sorts of things from scratch without some outside impetus. Something like that happening in 2020, OTOH, would be malpractice.
True, but much of it is about building that culture of wariness. For example, EVERYTHING should have two-factor authentication attached to it. Yes, some of this creates more hassle for workers and IT administrators. And people immediately start whining, "But I need to ____..." And you have to remind them that if they do that, then they get ants Donald Trump wins the election.
2FA is shockingly easy to fool. All you need to do is have your phishing site prompt for the 2FA site, have Google send the code and pass it on. If you’re a state, presumably you can be clever enough to have your phishing site spoof your IP address so it doesn’t look like it’s coming from Bucharest or wherever.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 16 Jul 2018, 15:39

They just arrested Maria Butina.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/16/politics ... index.html

Mueller has some balls on him.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 16 Jul 2018, 23:23

Maria Butina may have met with Trump at the 2015 NRA convention.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/07 ... ussian-spy

And apparently Trump has had interactions with Alexander Torshin.

Nothing to see here, Tovarischi. Move along.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 18 Jul 2018, 04:47

The White House provides an edited transcript of the press conference in Helsinki. The changed the question where Putin said yes to, "President Putin, did you want President Trump to win the election and did you direct any of your officials to help him do that?"

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... pt/565385/
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 18 Jul 2018, 12:27

Image

Sucks to be Paul Erickson U.S. Person 1.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 18 Jul 2018, 12:34

In what kind of scandal does the guy have sex with the young redhead before he will agree to ACCEPT $30 million in political donations?

Paul Erickson is terrible at Sugar Daddying.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Shem
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 19 Jul 2018, 00:57

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Kolohe » 19 Jul 2018, 02:06

Maria Butina is exactly the right age to be Paige Jennings' daughter.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 19 Jul 2018, 11:58

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/worl ... ling-.html
In July 2017, just after meeting Mr. Putin for the first time, Mr. Trump told a New York Times reporter that the Russian president had made a persuasive case that Moscow’s cyberskills were so good that the government’s hackers would never have been caught. Therefore, Mr. Trump recounted from his conversation with Mr. Putin, Russia must not have been responsible.
"If you caught us then it couldn't possibly be us because we're too good to be caught."

Said by the leader of the same country that sent Maria Butina, the spy who communicated with her superiors via Twitter.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Jennifer » 19 Jul 2018, 13:24

thoreau wrote:
19 Jul 2018, 11:58
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/worl ... ling-.html
In July 2017, just after meeting Mr. Putin for the first time, Mr. Trump told a New York Times reporter that the Russian president had made a persuasive case that Moscow’s cyberskills were so good that the government’s hackers would never have been caught. Therefore, Mr. Trump recounted from his conversation with Mr. Putin, Russia must not have been responsible.
"If you caught us then it couldn't possibly be us because we're too good to be caught."

Said by the leader of the same country that sent Maria Butina, the spy who communicated with her superiors via Twitter.
Yeah, but Putin doesn't need an excuse good enough to fool honest and intelligent people; he needs only fool Trump and his defenders. And it appears he's doing that.
"Myself, despite what they say about libertarians, I think we're actually allowed to pursue options beyond futility or sucking the dicks of the powerful." -- Eric the .5b

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