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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 17 May 2018, 23:18
by Mo
Is Vanessa Trump next?

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 17 May 2018, 23:26
by thoreau
Mo wrote:Is Vanessa Trump next?
Tiffany Trump is a law student. Maybe she'll get a summer job on Mueller's team.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 19 May 2018, 14:29
by thoreau
Turns out that Donnie Jr. was meeting with lots of foreigners offering campaign assistance:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/19/us/p ... zamel.html

So much for "It's going to be America First!"

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 19 May 2018, 14:33
by thoreau
Imagine you're the FBI informant inside the Trump campaign. You realize your cover is blown, so you level with someone, hoping to salvage your mission: "OK, I admit it, I'm a government agent, and if you work with..."

Other guy cuts him off: "Hey, we're all government agents here. Which government are you with?"

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 19 May 2018, 19:30
by Painboy
http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/04/13/tru ... an-obamas/

The headline is certainly debatable, and it doesn't prove there was no collusion, but if there was Vlad appears to have been screwed. You shouldn't try to con a con man I guess.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 20 May 2018, 00:16
by Mo
Painboy wrote:http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/04/13/tru ... an-obamas/

The headline is certainly debatable, and it doesn't prove there was no collusion, but if there was Vlad appears to have been screwed. You shouldn't try to con a con man I guess.
Holy selective reasoning Batman. I like how expanding the Magnitsky Act is somehow more meaningful than passing the act. Also, while the military did kill Russian mercs, it was because those troops attacked a US installation. We did not go out of our way to attack them. The fact that there was no greater price than the troops that actually attacked Americans is a demerit. I have zero doubt that in the same situation, the military would have, at the very least, responded in kind under Obama.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 20 May 2018, 00:42
by Shem
Mo wrote:
20 May 2018, 00:16
I like how expanding the Magnitsky Act is somehow more meaningful than passing the act.
Especially when you only signed it under duress, and are actively avoiding enforcing it to the best of your ability.
Also, while the military did kill Russian mercs, it was because those troops attacked a US installation. We did not go out of our way to attack them. The fact that there was no greater price than the troops that actually attacked Americans is a demerit. I have zero doubt that in the same situation, the military would have, at the very least, responded in kind under Obama.
The Russians wouldn't have done it under Obama, (or Bush [père or fils], or Clinton, or Reagan, or...) for exactly that reason. Giving him credit for it is like giving the guy who took the front door off its hinges and removed the lightbulbs from the front porch light credit for shooting the prowler who tried to come in to steal. "Trumptech might have enticed a burglar into our house, but they also eventually shot him. Thanks, Trumptech!"

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 20 May 2018, 08:50
by JasonL
I dunno about better but the behavior is inconsistent with the “owned by the kremlin” narratives. You have to really stretch to make that fit.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 20 May 2018, 09:47
by thoreau
I concede that Russia may not have gotten a lot of value for their money.

The Gulf Arabs, otoh, may have done ok.


Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 20 May 2018, 10:25
by Number 6
thoreau wrote:
20 May 2018, 09:47
I concede that Russia may not have gotten a lot of value for their money.

The Gulf Arabs, otoh, may have done ok.

I thought a Qatari guy was in on the meetings, too. That being said, I'll never forget the sheer WTFness of being over there when all that happened. "He said what? Does he even know we're here? 'We' being a huge airbase that includes *insert various rather important things that I won't name because OPSEC*, and that we're kind of central to the air war across the AOR?.....Jesus, he doesn't know, does he?"

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 20 May 2018, 14:52
by Shem
JasonL wrote:
20 May 2018, 08:50
I dunno about better but the behavior is inconsistent with the “owned by the kremlin” narratives. You have to really stretch to make that fit.
Not when you consider that he's actively avoiding the enforcement of a lot of Russia regulations, including the new sanctions he fought tooth and nail to keep from having to sign. Not that I'm sold on that narrative, but it could easily be a classic case of doing the small thing to forestall the large thing.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 20 May 2018, 16:18
by Number 6
Shem wrote:
20 May 2018, 14:52
JasonL wrote:
20 May 2018, 08:50
I dunno about better but the behavior is inconsistent with the “owned by the kremlin” narratives. You have to really stretch to make that fit.
Not when you consider that he's actively avoiding the enforcement of a lot of Russia regulations, including the new sanctions he fought tooth and nail to keep from having to sign. Not that I'm sold on that narrative, but it could easily be a classic case of doing the small thing to forestall the large thing.
Giggity.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 20 May 2018, 18:45
by lunchstealer
Shem wrote:
20 May 2018, 14:52
JasonL wrote:
20 May 2018, 08:50
I dunno about better but the behavior is inconsistent with the “owned by the kremlin” narratives. You have to really stretch to make that fit.
Not when you consider that he's actively avoiding the enforcement of a lot of Russia regulations, including the new sanctions he fought tooth and nail to keep from having to sign. Not that I'm sold on that narrative, but it could easily be a classic case of doing the small thing to forestall the large thing.
And he's really eased State Department stuff WRT human rights violations, which seems to be a big thing for Putin. Putin doesn't mind being seen going toe to toe with the US, even if he does actually take a couple of solid hits doing it. Because standing up to the superpower recalls the old days of Soviet relevance. So Trump can be tough on Russia as long as it's about stuff that makes Putin look good at home. What Putin doesn't want the US doing is calling him out for being a thug to Russians, and being antidemocratic. He's long since made it clear that the biggest threat to Russia is Western-style liberal democracy. Getting called out for being an asshole to homosexuals or for murdering journalists doesn't make him look strong. And that's where he's getting value from Trump.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 21 May 2018, 09:15
by Jennifer
Is this just more Trumpian bloviating, or the start of another bad thing the Republicans are going to enable?


Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 22 May 2018, 12:30
by Pham Nuwen
Possibly in the wrong thread but this was very, very, VERY well done.

https://www.theonion.com/the-onion-has- ... 1826197533

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 22 May 2018, 13:55
by thoreau
Here is the better thread for that:

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1919&p=416202

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 22 May 2018, 14:43
by Mo
Pham Nuwen wrote:Possibly in the wrong thread but this was very, very, VERY well done.

https://www.theonion.com/the-onion-has- ... 1826197533
What’s bonkers is that letter is real.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 22 May 2018, 14:50
by Aresen
Mo wrote:
22 May 2018, 14:43
Pham Nuwen wrote:Possibly in the wrong thread but this was very, very, VERY well done.

https://www.theonion.com/the-onion-has- ... 1826197533
What’s bonkers is that letter is real.
I think this comes under "News that WAS in the Onion."

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 23 May 2018, 15:57
by Mo
This complicates the, "But Trump sent weapons to Ukraine," talking point.
Donald Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, received a secret payment of at least $400,000 (£300,000) to fix talks between the Ukrainian president and President Trump, according to sources in Kiev close to those involved.

...

The meeting at the White House was last June. Shortly after the Ukrainian president returned home, his country's anti-corruption agency stopped its investigation into Trump's former campaign manager, Paul Manafort.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 25 May 2018, 21:32
by thoreau
Cohen met with a Russian oligarch during the transition.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/25/us/p ... tower.html

Avenatti is either a conduit for leaks or he's the luckiest SOB ever.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 26 May 2018, 02:47
by Shem
Can't it be both?

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 04 Jun 2018, 23:57
by thoreau
Russians sure like the NRA:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/f ... mp-w518587

Decades ago, Russians worked to infiltrate and manipulate left-wing organizations. If you'd told me in the 80's and 90's that Russians would successfully cozy up to a large right-wing US political organization I would have laughed hysterically.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 05 Jun 2018, 00:20
by Fin Fang Foom
thoreau wrote:
04 Jun 2018, 23:57
Russians sure like the NRA:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/f ... mp-w518587

Decades ago, Russians worked to infiltrate and manipulate left-wing organizations. If you'd told me in the 80's and 90's that Russians would successfully cozy up to a large right-wing US political organization I would have laughed hysterically.
The Soviet Union was full of bullshit, but it had an actual ideology. The right wing abroad is a tool for the Russians, nothing else.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 05 Jun 2018, 01:11
by lunchstealer
Putin wants to dominate their frontiers and have a little mini empire back for Russia. A jingoistic America that has no problem with might-makes-right makes that easier. Neoconservatism was a bit too make-the-world-safe-for-Democracy, so he needed to take it to more of a great-powers thing. The current NRA with its shut up and rah America drink beer and let the cops kick somebody's ass if they want is pretty much exactly what he needs for that.

Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Posted: 05 Jun 2018, 01:40
by thoreau
I get why Putin does what he does, and that there are differences between Russian cultivation of US lefties in the Cold War and Russian cultivation of US conservatives now.

Still, it is impressive how good the Russians can be at finding useful idiots in America. We seem to be rich in idiots for the picking.