Occam, Trump, and Russia

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Shem
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 14 Nov 2017, 16:06

JasonL wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 16:00
thoreau wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 14:51
I don't think we have to take Marx as an authority on anything to note that some people want a piece of the pie within a framework that still lets others have plenty of pie and keeps the bakery running, while others are pissed and just want to see the system burn. Some people break windows to make that happen, others vote for the self-evident joke who is unlikely to accomplish much except piss off their enemies.
So the argument here is a trumpian populism would be materially different from say a sandersian populism in motives or legitimacy or coherence of thought? I hear that sort of thing all the time, but I kind of feel like it's yet another example of people wanting to excuse stupidity that sounds like their view of the world. I think most if not all of the attempts to draw this distinction fail down in the details.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 14 Nov 2017, 16:20

So, right, this goes to my take on ideology - most people aren't ideological. To the extent they are ideological, they aren't ideological in marxian categories. That's to say, most people don't vote / aren't activists because they don't feel strongly about any program, not compared to the day to day living of their lives. They like things that benefit them and dislike things that cost them without any ideological coherence to that set of policies. A populist movement is a thing that gets those people to coalesce by telling them their favorite story - that they are victims and oppressed by an elite that doesn't deserve what they have and justice requires that they get their share. That's the story of populism in all places and times. Sometimes it's more justified than others. So, trumpism, to me, is like all populist movements. There is a core of dedicated people who really believe a thing - in this case as you say the rejection of any existing program watch it burn, then there's a much greater group of agitated people who think they will get something because they are part of the mob currently making noise.

What I'm suggesting is the there isn't that much difference really between one mob and the next because like 20% of the mob actually is trying to make some kind of point and the rest are just rabblerabblerabble. I'm skeptical of all populist movements because it isn't that hard to say something completely incoherent that makes people mad, especially if they are the victims and life keeping them down and terk er jerb and whatever. It's the same story over and over again.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 14 Nov 2017, 16:22

Sandersian populism: Higher taxes, more healthcare, fewer travel bans.

Lefty but non-populist Blues: Somewhat higher taxes, more healthcare delivered in ways that keep the system in place, fewer travel bans, less sand in the gears of industry.

Both of these are different from each other and from Trumpian populism.
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fyodor
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by fyodor » 14 Nov 2017, 16:22

thoreau wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 14:51
I don't think we have to take Marx as an authority on anything to note that some people want a piece of the pie within a framework that still lets others have plenty of pie and keeps the bakery running, while others are pissed and just want to see the system burn. Some people break windows to make that happen, others vote for the self-evident joke who is unlikely to accomplish much except piss off their enemies.
What if you think the bakery must be burned before a new functioning one can be built? Then it seems the distinction might be pretty gray.
Your optimism just confuses and enrages me. - Timothy

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JasonL
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 14 Nov 2017, 16:25

thoreau wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 16:22
Sandersian populism: Higher taxes, more healthcare, fewer travel bans.
That's very generous. Like, very.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 14 Nov 2017, 16:26

JasonL wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 16:25
thoreau wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 16:22
Sandersian populism: Higher taxes, more healthcare, fewer travel bans.
That's very generous. Like, very.
I typed quickly. WAY higher taxes. WAY more healthcare spending (with no regard for sustainability). Fewer travel bans. A bunch of other stuff that I left out to focus on a few examples.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 14 Nov 2017, 16:31

Among Bernistas I know - way higher taxes on someone else, healthcare that costs me less than the mandate penalty but covers everything, a $15 minimum wage that has no ill effects, pay off my student loans, and so on. They are hilariously stupid about that stuff in a way that's less mean spirited but not fundamentally more reasonable than trumpism. It's why his proposal numbers were so awful that he had to claim like 8.something% growth.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by the innominate one » 14 Nov 2017, 16:38

Because Sanders' proposals are not more practical than Trump's does not make them equivalent in other ways; it makes them the same in that one way: they are unlikely to work long term. They're most unlike in one particular way: Sanders' ideals would never get implemented, even were he president.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by fyodor » 14 Nov 2017, 16:45

JasonL wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 16:31
Among Bernistas I know - way higher taxes on someone else, healthcare that costs me less than the mandate penalty but covers everything, a $15 minimum wage that has no ill effects, pay off my student loans, and so on. They are hilariously stupid about that stuff in a way that's less mean spirited but not fundamentally more reasonable than trumpism. It's why his proposal numbers were so awful that he had to claim like 8.something% growth.
A stupid ideology /= no ideology. At a certain point your analysis may become tautological. They're wrong and therefore the ways in which they're wrong don't matter or are really all the same?
Your optimism just confuses and enrages me. - Timothy

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JasonL
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 14 Nov 2017, 16:52

They are both mobs carrying around a sort of flip over the apple cart mentality. The complexion of their stories about themselves is different, but it's still "i'm the good guy and i'm getting screwed this whole thing needs a reboot so I get my fair share". The thing that matters is the fair share apple cartism as distinct from those filthy sorts who sell us out (compromise through normal politics around a consensus). My contention is there isn't much that matters to draw a distinction after that observation. Doing so forces the conversation to be about narrative - who is the good guy, who is getting screwed, who is to blame, when really the policies are all just full retard and that's what matters.

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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 14 Nov 2017, 16:53

I am still trying to get how one would see Bolsheviks and the lumpenproletariat as similar.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 14 Nov 2017, 16:55

The bolsheviks see themselves as something other than lumpen. My contention is that's just self serving narrative outside of a very few ideologically committed types. They were just a mob.

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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 14 Nov 2017, 16:57

Please read anything about the Russian Revolution.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 14 Nov 2017, 17:01

It wasn't carried out by a mob?

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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 14 Nov 2017, 17:06

JasonL, your inability to understand anything of the left is so bad, that in the event of a leftist attempt at violent takeover we will have to kill you in case you somehow find yourself in a leadership position against them and be our Braxton Bragg.
Saudi Arabia is doing something potentially harmful to America? Oh, hell. Does that mean we're going to invade Iraq again? - Jennifer

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by fyodor » 14 Nov 2017, 17:07

Not sure what's informative or useful about this analysis. It'd unfalsifiable and others can and surely do say the same about libertarians.
Your optimism just confuses and enrages me. - Timothy

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JasonL
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 14 Nov 2017, 17:19

I find the narratives the left tells itself to be eyerolly, yes. There have been lots of revolutions in lots of places where entrenched aristocracy met a perhaps just and bloody end. The resulting conditions are mostly tragic in the intermediate term for any number of reasons. The leadership of the revolutionary body has invariably sold some kind of populist narrative to a larger mob who is now looking to get their stuff. It's just how revolutions tend to go, and that's all well and good. What I'm saying is the revolutionary narrative isn't very important and it certainly doesn't excuse what those regimes are about to do to people. I'm skeptical of revolutionaries in general. They tend not to be all that romantic up close. There is no worthwhile debate of actual ideas until the mob disperses.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 14 Nov 2017, 17:25

fyodor wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 17:07
Not sure what's informative or useful about this analysis. It'd unfalsifiable and others can and surely do say the same about libertarians.
What I would say is it is a mistake to compare mobs by looking at their narratives rather than what they are actually trying to do. Bernistas aren't good guys if they put half of Mississippi out of work through stupidity, if they pass that but a "mean" Trumpkin mob is too incompetent to pass anything, the Bernistas were the greater evil.

Also, I'm drawing a distinction between mobs looking to burn it all down for whatever reason and people who want to change some policy toward their preferred view through a more normal kind of politics and advocacy . There's a place where ideas can be debated.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by fyodor » 14 Nov 2017, 17:52

JasonL wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 17:25
fyodor wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 17:07
Not sure what's informative or useful about this analysis. It'd unfalsifiable and others can and surely do say the same about libertarians.
What I would say is it is a mistake to compare mobs by looking at their narratives rather than what they are actually trying to do. Bernistas aren't good guys if they put half of Mississippi out of work through stupidity, if they pass that but a "mean" Trumpkin mob is too incompetent to pass anything, the Bernistas were the greater evil.

Also, I'm drawing a distinction between mobs looking to burn it all down for whatever reason and people who want to change some policy toward their preferred view through a more normal kind of politics and advocacy . There's a place where ideas can be debated.
What makes Bernistas a mob? Of course what they want to do is what matters. Everyone's the good guy in their own narrative.
Your optimism just confuses and enrages me. - Timothy

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Jennifer » 14 Nov 2017, 18:00

JasonL wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 16:52
They are both mobs carrying around a sort of flip over the apple cart mentality.
That criticism could be made of any group supporting a political POV you find wrong. I could just as easily say it about the "We must invade Iraq and overthrow Saddam Hussein because WMDs and 9/11" crowd back in the day, but what would this accomplish, exactly? An idea which proved super-stupid in retrospect was shared at the time by a whole bunch of people. Yeah, well, that's everything in human history for ya.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Eric the .5b » 14 Nov 2017, 18:10

the innominate one wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 16:38
Because Sanders' proposals are not more practical than Trump's does not make them equivalent in other ways; it makes them the same in that one way: they are unlikely to work long term. They're most unlike in one particular way: Sanders' ideals would never get implemented, even were he president.
We said that about Trump's nomination and his becoming president. And Bernie is a functional adult who has some idea of how government works, unlike the Orange Swan. If he could have somehow been elected, the conditions necessary would have made him more able to enact proposals than Trump has been.

(This, of course, doesn't mean Bernie's presidency would have been more destructive. I doubt he'd defend neo-Nazis, just for one example...)
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 14 Nov 2017, 18:16

fyodor wrote:
JasonL wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 17:25
fyodor wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 17:07
Not sure what's informative or useful about this analysis. It'd unfalsifiable and others can and surely do say the same about libertarians.
What I would say is it is a mistake to compare mobs by looking at their narratives rather than what they are actually trying to do. Bernistas aren't good guys if they put half of Mississippi out of work through stupidity, if they pass that but a "mean" Trumpkin mob is too incompetent to pass anything, the Bernistas were the greater evil.

Also, I'm drawing a distinction between mobs looking to burn it all down for whatever reason and people who want to change some policy toward their preferred view through a more normal kind of politics and advocacy . There's a place where ideas can be debated.
What makes Bernistas a mob? Of course what they want to do is what matters. Everyone's the good guy in their own narrative.
They are a populist movement seeking to substantially overturn the role of government in society to their benefit. And they have numbers.

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fyodor
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by fyodor » 14 Nov 2017, 18:22

JasonL wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 18:16
fyodor wrote:
JasonL wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 17:25
fyodor wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 17:07
Not sure what's informative or useful about this analysis. It'd unfalsifiable and others can and surely do say the same about libertarians.
What I would say is it is a mistake to compare mobs by looking at their narratives rather than what they are actually trying to do. Bernistas aren't good guys if they put half of Mississippi out of work through stupidity, if they pass that but a "mean" Trumpkin mob is too incompetent to pass anything, the Bernistas were the greater evil.

Also, I'm drawing a distinction between mobs looking to burn it all down for whatever reason and people who want to change some policy toward their preferred view through a more normal kind of politics and advocacy . There's a place where ideas can be debated.
What makes Bernistas a mob? Of course what they want to do is what matters. Everyone's the good guy in their own narrative.
They are a populist movement seeking to substantially overturn the role of government in society to their benefit. And they have numbers.
How is that different from libertarians? Well, other than the numbers. ;) Oh and also the self- serving motivation.... Um, what were we saying about narratives?
Your optimism just confuses and enrages me. - Timothy

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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 14 Nov 2017, 18:38

fyodor wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 18:22
JasonL wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 18:16
fyodor wrote:
JasonL wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 17:25
fyodor wrote:
14 Nov 2017, 17:07
Not sure what's informative or useful about this analysis. It'd unfalsifiable and others can and surely do say the same about libertarians.
What I would say is it is a mistake to compare mobs by looking at their narratives rather than what they are actually trying to do. Bernistas aren't good guys if they put half of Mississippi out of work through stupidity, if they pass that but a "mean" Trumpkin mob is too incompetent to pass anything, the Bernistas were the greater evil.

Also, I'm drawing a distinction between mobs looking to burn it all down for whatever reason and people who want to change some policy toward their preferred view through a more normal kind of politics and advocacy . There's a place where ideas can be debated.
What makes Bernistas a mob? Of course what they want to do is what matters. Everyone's the good guy in their own narrative.
They are a populist movement seeking to substantially overturn the role of government in society to their benefit. And they have numbers.
How is that different from libertarians? Well, other than the numbers. ;) Oh and also the self- serving motivation.... Um, what were we saying about narratives?
Libertarians aren't self-serving?
Saudi Arabia is doing something potentially harmful to America? Oh, hell. Does that mean we're going to invade Iraq again? - Jennifer

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JasonL
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 14 Nov 2017, 18:46

The main difference is the numbers and the internal disagreement about the need for revolutionary change. If revolutionary minded libertarians started to spin a populist narrative about an oppressed underclass, that caught on somehow, and terk er jerbs became terk er propertay or something to a much larger but not ideologically libertarian group, those libertarians would have become a populist mob. Actual libertarian outcomes would be very unlikely at that point because, this is the point the mob isn't fundamentally libertarian it is fundamentally a mob.

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