Occam, Trump, and Russia

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Eric the .5b
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Eric the .5b » 17 Dec 2017, 22:33

Pham Nuwen wrote:
17 Dec 2017, 20:55
Sandy wrote:
17 Dec 2017, 20:04
Aresen wrote:
Pham Nuwen wrote:
17 Dec 2017, 17:31
Sandy wrote:
17 Dec 2017, 14:49
*gushes* He went to Jared!!
There are better food options than subway! That's the real crime there.
Yes. Like Olive Garden.

*ducks and runs*
The attractions aren’t as fresh and young there, or so I’ve heard.
Are ... are we still talking about food? *looks over shoulder for Chris Hanson*
It's only pizza where you have to worry about Chris Hanson.
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Sandy
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Sandy » 17 Dec 2017, 23:11

Pham Nuwen wrote:
Sandy wrote:
17 Dec 2017, 20:04
Aresen wrote:
Pham Nuwen wrote:
17 Dec 2017, 17:31
Sandy wrote:
17 Dec 2017, 14:49
*gushes* He went to Jared!!
There are better food options than subway! That's the real crime there.
Yes. Like Olive Garden.

*ducks and runs*
The attractions aren’t as fresh and young there, or so I’ve heard.
Are ... are we still talking about food? *looks over shoulder for Chris Hanson*
I was originally mocking the jewelry chain ads, but who can resist hebebophilia (sp?) jokes?
Hindu is the cricket of religions. You can observe it for years, you can have enthusiasts try to explain it to you, and it's still baffling. - Warren

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Shem
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 18 Dec 2017, 09:22

Ephebophilia. I think yours involves being primarily sexually attracted to Jews.
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nicole
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by nicole » 18 Dec 2017, 09:51

Shem wrote:
18 Dec 2017, 09:22
Ephebophilia. I think yours involves being primarily sexually attracted to Jews.
There is also a thing called hebephilia which is between pedo and ephebo.
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Shem
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 18 Dec 2017, 10:09

I know, but the joke doesn't work if I do.
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nicole
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by nicole » 18 Dec 2017, 10:17

True.
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Sandy
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Sandy » 18 Dec 2017, 12:08

I will totally own my lack of knowledge of having sex with underage people.
Hindu is the cricket of religions. You can observe it for years, you can have enthusiasts try to explain it to you, and it's still baffling. - Warren

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Shem
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 18 Dec 2017, 12:10

Somewhere out there, Chris Hansen is nodding approvingly.
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JasonL
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 18 Dec 2017, 15:58

This wuz funny.

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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 30 Dec 2017, 11:51

George Papadopoulos is an idiot, but apparently a useful idiot.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/12/30/u ... e=Homepage
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dhex
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by dhex » 31 Dec 2017, 07:55

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... ry/549422/

Every time I read about this stuff I'm deeply underwhelmed. Calling it meddling feels like just more post hoc generalization to explain how Hillary lost.
"I like you, but you are a film moron." - db

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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 31 Dec 2017, 14:29

The troll farms weren't doing anything that the H&R commentariat wouldn't do for free.

The hacking of the DNC was probably of consequence, less because the "revelations" actually swayed anyone and more because it reminded people that Democrats have email servers. The next Blue nominee will probably renounce the use of email (and thenceforth be treated as a savior by all college professors).

As to the Trumpeters and collusion, the greatest sin that we'll probably find is that the Trumpeters knew about the DNC hack and agreed to be nice to Russia as repayment. Maybe a minor sin on one level, but you can't have Presidential candidates accepting those kinds of favors. It shows how much they were in over their heads in dealing with a major foreign power.
"Camacho would be better than Trump. He actually has goodwill towards the world, and he actually did seek out the assistance of the smartest man in the world."
--Fin Fang Foom

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Eric the .5b
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Eric the .5b » 31 Dec 2017, 21:40

dhex wrote:
31 Dec 2017, 07:55
https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... ry/549422/

Every time I read about this stuff I'm deeply underwhelmed. Calling it meddling feels like just more post hoc generalization to explain how Hillary lost.
I'm kinda there.

The Reds need savage electoral chastisement, but Team Blue is basically going from a playbook that says Clinton was absolutely perfect and blameless. Beyond that, they're just banking on voter anger being enough to make them shoe-ins.
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
"Cyberpunk never really gave the government enough credit for their ability to secure a favorable prenup during the Corporate-State wedding." - Shem

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Aresen
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Aresen » 31 Dec 2017, 21:45

Eric the .5b wrote:
31 Dec 2017, 21:40
dhex wrote:
31 Dec 2017, 07:55
https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... ry/549422/

Every time I read about this stuff I'm deeply underwhelmed. Calling it meddling feels like just more post hoc generalization to explain how Hillary lost.
I'm kinda there.

The Reds need savage electoral chastisement, but Team Blue is basically going from a playbook that says Clinton was absolutely perfect and blameless. Beyond that, they're just banking on voter anger being enough to make them shoe-ins.
And they will confuse a backlash with a mandate, thus setting up a tit-for-tat oscillation.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Most people don't realize Stephen King downplayed the horror that is Maine. - Jennifer

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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 31 Dec 2017, 21:51

Eric the .5b wrote:
31 Dec 2017, 21:40
The Reds need savage electoral chastisement
Sadly, Trump might actually be their electoral chastisement. He's a former Democrat and Clinton donor who beat the Reds in the primaries.
but Team Blue is basically going from a playbook that says Clinton was absolutely perfect and blameless. Beyond that, they're just banking on voter anger being enough to make them shoe-ins.
I think this country would go nuts for a Blue who could critique both Clintons without calling for Bernie-level spending. But I have no idea who will step up and do that. The older Blues have mostly spent too much time being too close to the Clintons, and the Blues who aren't close to the Clintons and seem to have a chance are either very status quo-oriented in their policies (e.g. Kamala Harris) or else want to spend like Bernie.

I think that's the choice the Blues will allow themselves to make: Either somebody who wants to see the ship of state keep on keeping on in exactly the same way (except with a bit more spending here and there) or somebody who thinks we can be Sweden but bigger.
"Camacho would be better than Trump. He actually has goodwill towards the world, and he actually did seek out the assistance of the smartest man in the world."
--Fin Fang Foom

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Mo
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 31 Dec 2017, 23:36

dhex wrote:https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... ry/549422/

Every time I read about this stuff I'm deeply underwhelmed. Calling it meddling feels like just more post hoc generalization to explain how Hillary lost.
What’s interesting is I’m less disquieted about it when it’s solely about the US context. When I hear/read about it used abroad, I get more freaked out. The Rough Translation episode about how these tactics were used in Ukraine was really interesting/scary.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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dhex
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by dhex » 31 Dec 2017, 23:41

They were much more effective in Ukraine. But totally different sitch than us elections.
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Mo
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 31 Dec 2017, 23:48

Partly because the language/cultural barriers are lower. I’m actually less worried about Russians than by Americans tweaking the methodology in a locally relevant manner.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Aresen
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Aresen » 01 Jan 2018, 00:02

Mo wrote:
31 Dec 2017, 23:48
Partly because the language/cultural barriers are lower. I’m actually less worried about Russians than by Americans tweaking the methodology in a locally relevant manner.
Also, US politics has not reached the level of corruption and thuggishness prevalent in Eastern Europe.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Most people don't realize Stephen King downplayed the horror that is Maine. - Jennifer

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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 01 Jan 2018, 00:12

Troll farms aren't doing anything that racist uncles, frustrated losers, and Hit and Run commenters (but I repeat myself) won't do for free. In presidential races they can't rise above the noise level. In high-profile state or Congressional races, if somebody cares enough to send in a troll farm then the odds are that the media is already paying a lot of attention to the race and racist uncles are busy posting Facebook messages about how [insert Blue candidate here] is a secret Muslim who wants everyone to get gay married, while your humorless feminist (but I repeat myself) friends-of-friends are explaining that [insert Red candidate here] will bring about Handmaid's Tale. So it would take a pretty epic troll farm to rise above the noise.

The hacked emails, however, were illegal, and if the Trump team was willing to play along with a foreign power doing that then they shouldn't have security clearances.
"Camacho would be better than Trump. He actually has goodwill towards the world, and he actually did seek out the assistance of the smartest man in the world."
--Fin Fang Foom

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Shem
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 01 Jan 2018, 01:53

Mo wrote:
31 Dec 2017, 23:48
Partly because the language/cultural barriers are lower. I’m actually less worried about Russians than by Americans tweaking the methodology in a locally relevant manner.
One of the more compelling circumstantial arguments that there was in fact collusion is the fact that the Russians went from really shitty at understanding the US to much more sophisticated right around the time it supposedly started. It was really noticable on Reddit, for example.

I also think it's important to distinguish between the troll army stuff (which is mostly a tempest in a teapot) the testing electoral databases for weaknesses (which didn't really matter this time, but could be bad in the future) and the cybercrime stuff (which both probably was the straw that broke the donkey's back, and is worrying longer term).
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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 01 Jan 2018, 02:04

Agree with everything except "tempest in a teapot." It's a tempest in a samovar.
"Camacho would be better than Trump. He actually has goodwill towards the world, and he actually did seek out the assistance of the smartest man in the world."
--Fin Fang Foom

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JasonL
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 02 Jan 2018, 09:24

I think it's the new world. Everyone is going to have to step up data security to maintain any kind of privacy standards. We are used to a set of assumptions about private private data like bank routing numbers and ssns (equifax notwithstanding), and a kind of assumed to be private set of content like emails and texts. You either need to sweep the latter set of content under the same kinds of controls as financial data, or be okay with the idea that it isn't private. I don't like the Russians doing server hacks, but I basically assume that's how all governments and buttheads like anonymous do serious info gathering these days.

The social media thing I think is the nothingest of nothings. There's unironic social media content with millions of shares designed to make tankies smile. I'd like all those people and their haha stalin had the answer things to diaf, but we can't always get what we want.

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nicole
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by nicole » 02 Jan 2018, 09:37

The social media stuff bugs me more than the other stuff. It seems to be more relevant in terms of what's creating the culture that I live in. Russian trolls shitting up Twitter with their bitching about childless women who have the temerity to leave the kitchen is super annoying and actually part of daily life. Elections are already illegitimate, shrug.
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Highway
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Highway » 02 Jan 2018, 09:41

I think the social media stuff bugs me more also, given that that's what I think is moving the Overton window on things. Ordinary racists and assholes and communists see shit like that and think "I'm not that bad, I shouldn't have any problem talking about what I want to talk about."
"Sharks do not go around challenging people to games of chance like dojo breakers."

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