Occam, Trump, and Russia

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Ellie
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Ellie » 02 Nov 2017, 10:24

Maybe instead of trying to get him impeached, we can annoy him into a tantrum where he takes his ball and goes home?
I should have listened to Warren. He was right again as usual.

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the innominate one
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by the innominate one » 02 Nov 2017, 10:26

Jadagul wrote:
02 Nov 2017, 00:14
Aresen wrote:
01 Nov 2017, 23:03
Even if the FBI found a contract between Putin and Trump, signed in their (verified by DNA) own blood, the Trumpistas wouldn't budge.

Depends on how narrowly you scope "Trumpistas."

Some of them will never budge. But Nixon left office with an approval rate of 25%. That's low, but it's still a quarter of the country.

You don't need to budge the hard-core Trumpers. You need to budge the people who don't really like Trump but at least he's a Republican.

His approval rating right now is in the high thirties. If it drops below thirty or so he's at serious risk of impeachment. That's probably about the point at which the Republican legislators see more downside in protecting him than in distancing themselves.
The number is almost certainly greater than 25% now. I would not be surprised if the fraction of Trump-no-matter-what people was no lower than 33%, possibly more. I also don't trust that people are responding honestly to polls. The upper 30s approvals we're seeing may be a misunderestimation.
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Warren
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Warren » 02 Nov 2017, 10:40

the innominate one wrote:
02 Nov 2017, 10:26
The number is almost certainly greater than 25% now. I would not be surprised if the fraction of Trump-no-matter-what people was no lower than 33%, possibly more. I also don't trust that people are responding honestly to polls. The upper 30s approvals we're seeing may be a misunderestimation.
I don't trust poll methodology at all anymore. Seems like nobody is doing the due diligence with regards to sampling frame.
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Jadagul
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Jadagul » 02 Nov 2017, 10:45

the innominate one wrote:
02 Nov 2017, 10:26
Jadagul wrote:
02 Nov 2017, 00:14
Aresen wrote:
01 Nov 2017, 23:03
Even if the FBI found a contract between Putin and Trump, signed in their (verified by DNA) own blood, the Trumpistas wouldn't budge.

Depends on how narrowly you scope "Trumpistas."

Some of them will never budge. But Nixon left office with an approval rate of 25%. That's low, but it's still a quarter of the country.

You don't need to budge the hard-core Trumpers. You need to budge the people who don't really like Trump but at least he's a Republican.

His approval rating right now is in the high thirties. If it drops below thirty or so he's at serious risk of impeachment. That's probably about the point at which the Republican legislators see more downside in protecting him than in distancing themselves.
The number is almost certainly greater than 25% now. I would not be surprised if the fraction of Trump-no-matter-what people was no lower than 33%, possibly more. I also don't trust that people are responding honestly to polls. The upper 30s approvals we're seeing may be a misunderestimation.
I mean, 25% is not necessarily Nixon's floor, either. The floor has probably risen but Trump clearly isn't at his. (For instance, his "strong approve" numbers have also been dropping. And the people moving from "strong approve" to "weak approve" are movable and probably not the sort of "Trumpistas" of your first comment.

Warren wrote:
02 Nov 2017, 10:40
the innominate one wrote:
02 Nov 2017, 10:26
The number is almost certainly greater than 25% now. I would not be surprised if the fraction of Trump-no-matter-what people was no lower than 33%, possibly more. I also don't trust that people are responding honestly to polls. The upper 30s approvals we're seeing may be a misunderestimation.
I don't trust poll methodology at all anymore. Seems like nobody is doing the due diligence with regards to sampling frame.
Why not? They were pretty dead on in 2016.

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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 02 Nov 2017, 11:22

Ellie wrote:Maybe instead of trying to get him impeached, we can annoy him into a tantrum where he takes his ball and goes home?
I make a point of posting belittling responses to his tweets.
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Aresen
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Aresen » 02 Nov 2017, 11:29

Ellie wrote:
02 Nov 2017, 10:24
Maybe instead of trying to get him impeached, we can annoy him into a tantrum where he takes his ball and goes home pops a vein in the head?
FIFY

My Trump-departure-reason-of-choice remains that Trump develops untreatable
fulminant bowel incontinence.
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Kolohe
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Kolohe » 02 Nov 2017, 11:43

Though again "hey, the going is rough and getting rougher so he's going to bail soon like he's done his entire life" has been a thing for two and half years now, with negative results.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by lunchstealer » 02 Nov 2017, 14:01

Kolohe wrote:
02 Nov 2017, 11:43
Though again "hey, the going is rough and getting rougher so he's going to bail soon like he's done his entire life" has been a thing for two and half years now, with negative results.
He's bailed previously when he ran out of money or could only keep his money by bailing and leaving others holding the bag. He's got zero financial stake in gov't, so there's no downside to staying nor upside to leaving except ego, and I don't see his ego ever finding a downside to being POTUS.
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Mo
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 02 Nov 2017, 23:08

Though I wonder if 'But Gorsuch' backfires on him. With Gorsuch on the court, they really don't need him for anything anymore. Plus, primarying Republicans that are largely rubber-stamping his agenda can't help. Going after Flake is one thing, but Corker?
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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 02 Nov 2017, 23:34

Mo wrote:Though I wonder if 'But Gorsuch' backfires on him. With Gorsuch on the court, they really don't need him for anything anymore. Plus, primarying Republicans that are largely rubber-stamping his agenda can't help. Going after Flake is one thing, but Corker?
If Trump's value to the GOP was about getting tangible policies through Congress, what could Trump do for them that Pence wouldn't? Pence would actually be more effective. And the Congressional Republicans aren't exactly in love with Trump as a person...

This is about a voter base that simply likes Trump. Otherwise Trump would have been impeached and replaced with Pence already.
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 03 Nov 2017, 08:38

I doubt Trump's approval ratings, no matter how low they may go, will nudge rank and file Republicans to jump ship until they see him dragging them, personally, down and out of office. Moreover, if the Republicans who are cutting and running are replaced by Bannon approved Brownshirts who go on to win, I don't see any significant movement until 2020.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Aresen » 03 Nov 2017, 10:07

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
03 Nov 2017, 08:38
I doubt Trump's approval ratings, no matter how low they may go, will nudge rank and file Republicans to jump ship until they see him dragging them, personally, down and out of office. Moreover, if the Republicans who are cutting and running are replaced by Bannon approved Brownshirts who go on to win, I don't see any significant movement until 2020.
They could win the primary and lose the seat for the GOP. viz Arizona 2012:

Nominee Jeff Flake Richard Carmona
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,104,457 1,036,542
Percentage 49.2% 46.2%
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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 03 Nov 2017, 19:09

If you think Mueller's charges are small beer, this explains how they may be part of a strategy:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... rdons.html
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Mo
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 03 Nov 2017, 22:01

If you told WFB that Slate's legal analysts were smarter than NR's, he's have committed suicide.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 03 Nov 2017, 22:28

Mo wrote:
03 Nov 2017, 22:01
If you told WFB that Slate's legal analysts were smarter than NR's, he's have committed suicide.
In retrospect, NR was always dumb. Sometimes there was good writing.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Sandy » 04 Nov 2017, 11:33

Mo wrote:If you told WFB that Slate's legal analysts were smarter than NR's, he's have committed suicide.
If you told him that the modern equivalent of the Birchers he excommunicated were, if not in charge, then a significant influence, he would not be surprised.
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Mo
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 04 Nov 2017, 19:55

Buckley’s excommunication of Birchers has been wildly overstated. Much like his revised view on segregation, his words and subsequent actions are in direct conflict.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... iracy.html
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 04 Nov 2017, 22:47

I heard he wasn't strident enough in his condemnation of Robert E. Lee, too.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Warren » 04 Nov 2017, 22:50

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
04 Nov 2017, 22:47
I heard he wasn't strident enough in his condemnation of Robert E. Lee, too.
You are on fire!
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Mo
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 04 Nov 2017, 23:12

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
04 Nov 2017, 22:47
I heard he wasn't strident enough in his condemnation of Robert E. Lee, too.
He basically excommunicated a Bircher, Welch, rather than the Bircher movement. The fog of history and self-congratulation made people think he did the latter.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Mo
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 04 Nov 2017, 23:13

Another wealthy 'populist' with stupid hair get tied up in the Russia investigation.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 04 Nov 2017, 23:58

Mo wrote:Another wealthy 'populist' with stupid hair get tied up in the Russia investigation.
Boris Johnson is the universe's way of letting us know that even if we nullified the American Revolution we wouldn't get through change that we're hoping for.
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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 05 Nov 2017, 13:52

"The first rule of Grylliade club is 'Why are we talking about Grylliade club?'"
--Jake

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the innominate one
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by the innominate one » 05 Nov 2017, 13:58

Just another nothingburger.
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the innominate one
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by the innominate one » 06 Nov 2017, 07:50

Rumors abound that Flynn and Flynn Jr. are in like Flynn to be the next ones indicted.
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." -E Benn

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"now is the time to go fuck yourself until you die." -dhex

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