Occam, Trump, and Russia

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the innominate one
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by the innominate one » 26 Jan 2018, 10:53

The Federalist and Breitbart: Liars writing for idiots.
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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 30 Jan 2018, 02:06

Trump will lash out at any country on earth...except Russia. For Russia he will break the law.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... FI2V7?il=0

If Russia isn't controlling him then WTF is going on? How is it that, aside from Israel, Russia is the one and only country he won't thump his chest at?
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Jennifer
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Jennifer » 30 Jan 2018, 02:22

thoreau wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 02:06
If Russia isn't controlling him then WTF is going on? How is it that, aside from Israel, Russia is the one and only country he won't thump his chest at?
IIRC, Putin has never publicly said anything critical of Trump, and even said some complimentary things about him.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by the innominate one » 30 Jan 2018, 03:07

"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." -E Benn

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Kolohe » 30 Jan 2018, 06:57

Resting Pardon Face.
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JasonL
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 30 Jan 2018, 07:13

I’ve seen no real evidence of anything material. This looks more like the whitewater travel gate thing than watergate. OTOH the deep state conspiracy is complete nonsense.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by the innominate one » 30 Jan 2018, 09:07

JasonL wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 07:13
I’ve seen no real evidence of anything material. This looks more like the whitewater travel gate thing than watergate. OTOH the deep state conspiracy is complete nonsense.
True, but the reactions to the continued investigation seem suspicious. Over and over, the White House and House Republicans behave like there is something worth covering up. And there are numerous reports suggesting Russian donations/direct monetary influence in the election, which would be illegal if true.

Russia should have donated to Hillary's campaign and then done a shitty job of covering it up, or actually leaked the info during the campaign. Can you imagine the reaction from Fox? Sean Hannity would have come instantly upon hearing the news.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 30 Jan 2018, 09:11

The president is stupid and a giant baby. Asking why he engages in discrediting efforts ... have you ever seen anything he tweets?

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by the innominate one » 30 Jan 2018, 09:21

Yes. But what is there to be a baby about? He acts like there is something to find. Further, explain the behavior from Nunes and the other members of the House. Explain why they're attacking career FBI agents who are largely reportedly republicans or were appointed by republicans. We know also that Trump Jr. met with what he believed to be a representative of the Russian government with the intent of getting dirt on Hillary. We know that because he admitted it. It may not be illegal, but it looks bad, which is why they covered it up. Two senior advisors are being indicted. There's a lot of smoke, even if we can't see a fire.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by nicole » 30 Jan 2018, 09:28

I’m sure there is something to find, but it has to do with his finances generally and not Russian collusion in particular.

I mean, would I want my life under investigation? And you know Trump is shadier than that.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by the innominate one » 30 Jan 2018, 09:31

I wouldn't want that either, but that's one reason I'd never run for president, among many.

Maybe not Russian government collusion, more likely shady business deals with the Russian mob.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Warren » 30 Jan 2018, 09:40

JasonL wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 09:11
The president is stupid and a giant baby. Asking why he engages in discrediting efforts ... have you ever seen anything he tweets?
This is what I'm sayin.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 30 Jan 2018, 09:53

I don't think it takes anything at all to get this guy to act like a baby. Like, there's an investigation, he told people to stop it and they kept going now they are enemies and baby forever the end.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 30 Jan 2018, 10:01

Also, I would keep in mind that the leaks are not likely coming from Mueller's team, but from people they've spoken to. I would suspect those items are going to be the less damning ones.

Being a baby explains Trump, being craven explains Nunes, there are other folks that are rolling where it makes less sense.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 30 Jan 2018, 10:29

JasonL wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 07:13
I’ve seen no real evidence of anything material.
From Trump, or from the campaign? Because people have already pleaded guilty from the campaign on "I'll give you something worth not putting me away" deals. Against Trump himself, yeah, I'd agree. But there were at least a couple Russian assets in that campaign, and one of them was/is probably a Russian spy. If that's not material...I don't know what to say to that.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Aresen » 30 Jan 2018, 10:35

nicole wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 09:28
I’m sure there is something to find, but it has to do with his finances generally and not Russian collusion in particular.

I mean, would I want my life under investigation? And you know Trump is shadier than that.
the innominate one wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 09:31
I wouldn't want that either, but that's one reason I'd never run for president, among many.

Maybe not Russian government collusion, more likely shady business deals with the Russian mob.
One of the things I would hate most about any public office is living in a goldfish bowl. Every damn thing one does or says is under scrutiny and will be interpreted in the worst possible light.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 30 Jan 2018, 10:36

We have what Popadop, Manafort, and one other guy right? My take on Manafort is his slime trail timeline precedes the campaign. I think a lot of people feel like Popadop must have some kind of value or he wouldn't have flipped. I don't know anything about the other guy Gates I gather from google. Which one is a spy?

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by the innominate one » 30 Jan 2018, 10:39

Carter Page.

Why won't Trump enforce sanctions against Russia? Weird.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 30 Jan 2018, 10:46

Shem wrote:
JasonL wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 07:13
I’ve seen no real evidence of anything material.
From Trump, or from the campaign? Because people have already pleaded guilty from the campaign on "I'll give you something worth not putting me away" deals. Against Trump himself, yeah, I'd agree. But there were at least a couple Russian assets in that campaign, and one of them was/is probably a Russian spy. If that's not material...I don't know what to say to that.
Yeah. The campaign was deeply compromised by Russia, and rather than being all "Shit, we are in the grown-up job now so we are going to hunt down each and every Russian asset who got close to us" the Trump administration has repeatedly obstructed the investigation. Either they have more to hide or they just don't understand the duties of their job.

Mind you, I have no doubt that every campaign ever has been targeted by foreign intelligence services. I'm sure that all sorts of foreign assets chatted with Clinton campaign staffers in bars and tried to befriend them and whatnot. The difference is that I doubt that the Clinton campaign ever let those people get anywhere. Trump's campaign organization, OTOH, got manipulated into rewriting GOP platform language on Ukraine.

I suspect that Mueller will find four things: lots of compromised people on the campaign team, gross negligence in dealing with them, shady business deals with Russian businessmen who have Kremlin ties, and obstruction of justice. Sure, there might not be a peepee tape or text from The Don saying "Volodiya, I am in your service" but there's more than enough that would preclude literally anyone else from any sort of government employment.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 30 Jan 2018, 11:06

Too many of us, myself included, built up the spy movie scenario: Trump is controlled by men who give direct orders. More likely, Trump's biggest crime is one that we already know he's committing: The blurring of the lines between the man and the office. Trump was probably never given explicit orders or loyalty oaths, and probably never got hit directly with a blackmail file. Rather, I think he realized that Russia wants him to win, that Russia hacked the DNC, that Russia has cultivated ties with people around him, and that Russian businessmen are willing to do deals with him that nobody else will do. But instead of being all "Shit, I'm compromised! I need to fix this!" he's like "Yep, Russia loves me! I'm amazing! And they know it!" And then he decides that he'll be nice to them no matter what the political establishment says. Because he sees only his own interests and not the duties of the office.

That may or may not be a crime. I can't help but think that, if the person in question were just some mid-level bureaucrat instead of a powerful man with expensive lawyers, a prosecutor could find a crime in there. But it's not like I'm an expert on this, and I'm not a fan of prosecutorial overreach anyway. What I am sure of is that being this deeply compromised and influenced by a foreign autocrat is a textbook example of what the Founders intended impeachment for. If Mueller does indeed find that Trump obstructed justice while knowing that his campaign was full of Russian assets, that he has tons of shady money ties to Russia, and that Russia was involved in the DNC hack, Congress had better impeach him. If they don't, they're essentially saying that the US is an absolute monarchy, i.e. a system where there's no line between the man and the office, between duty and personal interest. Henceforth, US policy takes a backseat to the President's personal friendship with foreign leaders.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Shem
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 30 Jan 2018, 11:19

JasonL wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 10:36
We have what Popadop, Manafort, and one other guy right? My take on Manafort is his slime trail timeline precedes the campaign. I think a lot of people feel like Popadop must have some kind of value or he wouldn't have flipped. I don't know anything about the other guy Gates I gather from google. Which one is a spy?
Carter Page is the spy. He's the one Nunez is releasing the memo to protect. And Mike Flynn also pleaded guilty. Not trying to be a dick here, but are you sure you've been paying attention?
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 30 Jan 2018, 11:24

thoreau wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 11:06
More likely, Trump's biggest crime is one that we already know he's committing: The blurring of the lines between the man and the office.
Actually, I'm pretty sure his biggest crime is spending a decade and a half funding his company by selling condos to Russian mobsters to launder their money. Jr practically admitted as much in 2009 when someone asked him how they were posting profits selling luxury condos while real estate was in the toilet. Which is why he doesn't seem to care about the spy stuff, but he goes bitchcakes when anyone mentions his finances.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by nicole » 30 Jan 2018, 11:34

Shem wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 11:24
thoreau wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 11:06
More likely, Trump's biggest crime is one that we already know he's committing: The blurring of the lines between the man and the office.
Actually, I'm pretty sure his biggest crime is spending a decade and a half funding his company by selling condos to Russian mobsters to launder their money. Jr practically admitted as much in 2009 when someone asked him how they were posting profits selling luxury condos while real estate was in the toilet. Which is why he doesn't seem to care about the spy stuff, but he goes bitchcakes when anyone mentions his finances.
Yep.
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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 30 Jan 2018, 12:19

Shem wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 11:24
thoreau wrote:
30 Jan 2018, 11:06
More likely, Trump's biggest crime is one that we already know he's committing: The blurring of the lines between the man and the office.
Actually, I'm pretty sure his biggest crime is spending a decade and a half funding his company by selling condos to Russian mobsters to launder their money. Jr practically admitted as much in 2009 when someone asked him how they were posting profits selling luxury condos while real estate was in the toilet. Which is why he doesn't seem to care about the spy stuff, but he goes bitchcakes when anyone mentions his finances.
Fair enough, but I'll just say that I somehow doubt his money laundering had no spillover effects with his campaign. Do you really think it's a coincidence that after spending a decade and a half helping Russian mobsters launder money he just happens to wind up with a bunch of Russian assets in his campaign, Russian government lawyers showing up to offer dirt on Hillary Clinton, and campaign hangers-on being all "Whoah, this is like what we talked about with that Russian lady!" after the DNC hack?

He got in bed with dirty Russians, and eventually the Kremlin got involved.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Aresen » 30 Jan 2018, 12:27

Trump may or may not be directly involved here.

I have yet to see any indication that, whatever involvement he had, it has had any effect on his policy.

That is, if he has a policy.
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