Occam, Trump, and Russia

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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 27 Dec 2018, 13:41

Cohen's cell phone was in Prague during the time frame of the meeting alleged in the Steele dossier.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/invest ... 16820.html

I'm sure that the conversation was entirely about uncoordinated activities involving troll farms, and nothing more.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 28 Dec 2018, 01:59

Speculating on who might be in a nude selfie from the Mueller investigation is like trying to envision the form of the destructor:

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing ... al-counsel

Best case scenario is probably Maria Butina.

Or Ivanka. Easier on the eyes but more scarring to the soul, given implications.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
--Mo

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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 29 Dec 2018, 12:05

Interesting stuff about Manafort's efforts to pay off debts to pro-Moscow businessmen while managing Trump's campaign.
In a series of emails sent that spring and summer, Manafort tried to offer “private briefings” about the presidential race to Deripaska, apparently, as one of the emails puts it, to “get whole.” Reports in The Atlantic and the Washington Post revealed those emails in the fall of 2017.
http://amp.timeinc.net/time/5490169/pau ... rkin-debts

But it was all just troll farms and any concern over it is just legalistic hair splitting by the thumb-tack-and-red-string crowd.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
--Mo

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 06 Jan 2019, 15:17

It's Russian Christmas and federal employees have been sent home from work. Coincidence? I THINK NOT!!!!!
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
--Mo


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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Hugh Akston » 07 Jan 2019, 02:47

If you can't trust a couple of former NATO bigwigs working for a think tank whose stated purpose is to promote US leadership in NATO, and receives large parts of its funding from NATO governments, oil companies, and defense contractors to provide a sober strategic analysis that just happens to conclude that the US needs a bigger military presence in Europe, at least you can count on the Military Times to cover such a document with the critical journalistic skepticism that it demands.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Dangerman » 07 Jan 2019, 15:59

And, duh, we don't have tank divisions near the Fulda Gap anymore, and that's what it takes to not have your forward positions overrun. We're not going back there, and if the Euros are scared, they should look to their own budgets first.

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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 07 Jan 2019, 16:04

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Russian forces really are well-positioned and strengthening.

That has jack shit to do with Trump. Trump didn't make that happen. Putin made that happen by spending Russian money wisely (which is why I'm skeptical that it's happening, but we're assuming it for the sake of argument).

A Russian build-up has jack shit to do with Trump being on the take.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
--Mo

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Eric the .5b » 07 Jan 2019, 18:18

thoreau wrote:
07 Jan 2019, 16:04
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Russian forces really are well-positioned and strengthening.

That has jack shit to do with Trump. Trump didn't make that happen. Putin made that happen by spending Russian money wisely (which is why I'm skeptical that it's happening, but we're assuming it for the sake of argument).

A Russian build-up has jack shit to do with Trump being on the take.
Remind me—is this sarcasm or straight?
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 07 Jan 2019, 22:35

Eric the .5b wrote:
07 Jan 2019, 18:18
thoreau wrote:
07 Jan 2019, 16:04
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Russian forces really are well-positioned and strengthening.

That has jack shit to do with Trump. Trump didn't make that happen. Putin made that happen by spending Russian money wisely (which is why I'm skeptical that it's happening, but we're assuming it for the sake of argument).

A Russian build-up has jack shit to do with Trump being on the take.
Remind me—is this sarcasm or straight?
Straight. Trump doesn't have shit to do with Russian military budgets.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Kolohe » 07 Jan 2019, 22:55

It's not hard to score a quick kill on US forces if you have complete strategic surprise. Everybody from Imperial Japan to Al Qaeda has been able to do that. The issue always is what happens next.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Aresen » 07 Jan 2019, 23:29

Kolohe wrote:
07 Jan 2019, 22:55
It's not hard to score a quick kill on US forces if you have complete strategic surprise. Everybody from Imperial Japan to Al Qaeda has been able to do that. The issue always is what happens next.
Yes. The US invades a country in the Middle East.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 08 Jan 2019, 15:51

Russian intelligence's guy in Manafort's office was getting the Trump campaign's internal polling data, and running policy proposals by Manafort:
In one portion of the filing that Mr. Manafort’s lawyers tried to redact, they instead also revealed that Mr. Manafort “may have discussed a Ukraine peace plan” with the Russian associate, Konstantin V. Kilimnik, “on more than one occasion.”

Investigators have been questioning witnesses about whether Russia tried to influence the Trump administration to broker a resolution to hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. Various “peace plans” were proposed, including at least one that called for the lifting of American sanctions against Russia. Mr. Manafort and Mr. Kilimnik had worked closely together for years on behalf of Russia-aligned Ukrainian interests.

Prosecutors have also accused Mr. Manafort of misleading them about his contacts with senior administration officials, about a payment from a pro-Trump political action committee made to cover his legal expenses, and about how he and Mr. Kilimnik tried to influence the testimony of witnesses to ward off criminal charges.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/us/p ... imnik.html

Call me crazy, but I don't think that a US President should have a campaign manager who's working with a foreign intelligence service, and receiving policy proposals from them.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 17 Jan 2019, 23:06

Trump directed Michael Cohen to lie to Congress about ongoing efforts to build a Trump Tower in Moscow.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ja ... estigation

Why does everyone in the Trump camp need to lie about everything regarding Russia? Are troll farms really that embarrassing? Or is there something more?
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 25 Jan 2019, 09:57

Jared Kushner and 30 others in the administration were initially denied security clearances because of their business dealings, personal finances, and susceptibility to foreign influence, but political appointees overrode the decision.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... ed-n962221

"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Kolohe » 25 Jan 2019, 11:48

you got to give credit to Roger Stone - his ratfucking this time actually mattered, as opposed to the gang behind Nixon, where they were just running up the score.

eta - also, looking for references Roger Stone here, and got me reading the 'calling 2016 for Trump' thread, and it's a wild ride.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 25 Jan 2019, 12:24

They keep saying that there was NO COLLUSION, but every time anyone is questioned about collusion they start lying, obstructing, and trying to get witnesses to shut up.

Yes, innocent people can have plenty of things to hide, but it's striking just how many people connected to this particular campaign have so much to hide concerning this topic. If I didn't know any better, I'd suspect that someone at the highest levels of the campaign was working with Russian intelligence officers, and accepting meetings with representatives of the Russian government in order to receive help with hacking into their political opponents' records.

But none of that happened, of course; it was all just troll farms.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 01 Feb 2019, 11:27

After talking to Natalia Veselnitskaya, Donnie Junior called a business associate who had been involved in efforts to build a Trump Tower in Moscow.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2019 ... orber.html

I think it's pretty clear what the deal was: Russia wanted an end to sanctions, and GOP platform language on Ukraine, in exchange for campaign assistance (hacking the DNC) and maybe a Trump Tower in Moscow.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Aresen » 01 Feb 2019, 13:13

I've never been a fan of sanctions, mainly because they hurt a lot of the ordinary people while doing very little to change the behavior of those in power. Beyond that, they're basically ruling class hakkas.

(I know there are exceptions that have been effective, but for the most part they are grandstanding.)
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 01 Feb 2019, 14:09

I'm not a big fan of sanctions either, but some of the sanctions that they wanted lifted specifically applied to people like Oleg Deripaska. i.e. This wasn't about helping poor Russians in villages, but rather political cronies.

Also, I want our government to be run by people who evaluate sanctions on some basis other than "Will they let me... I mean, my sons, who run a totally separate business, build a tower with my name on it in their capital city?"
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
--Mo

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 01 Feb 2019, 14:40

Blunt sanctions against countries are dumb targeted sanctions against people and companies are better.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by lunchstealer » 01 Feb 2019, 14:57

Targeted sanctions of individuals like those under the Magnitsky act are a bit different than the Cuba embargo, for instance.

They seem less likely to hammer the little guys. Not sure of efficacy, but Putin seems to be pretty hardcore about fighting them so they have to at least sting a little.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 01 Feb 2019, 15:00

Besides what Mo and Lunchstealer said, the merits of the policy need to be decided on some basis other than "Will this foreign government provide intel support to my campaign?" and "Will they let me expand my business into their country?" Refusing to enforce sanctions against Russia after being told by Natalia Veselnitskaya that (1) Russia will support the campaign by hacking emails and (2) Russia wants Magnitsky Act sanctions lifted is blatantly impeachable.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 01 Feb 2019, 15:33

Punishing everyone because bad guys who run the country do bad things = bad and ineffective
Punishing bad guys and the people that help them and line their pockets for bad things = good and somewhat effective
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 01 Feb 2019, 15:58

More than anything, I think we can be glad that Trump has given John Bolton the freedom to pull out of every anti-proliferation treaty he can get his hands on.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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