Occam, Trump, and Russia

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Warren
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Warren » 20 Oct 2018, 21:10

Painboy wrote:
20 Oct 2018, 20:51
Don't puppies have that think loose skin on their back for that exact purpose? That's how the mother picks them up right?
Yeah, I mean it's not like he picked it up by its ears.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 24 Oct 2018, 11:18

Of all the arms control treaties to abandon, he walks away from one that favors the US over Russia. Coincidence, I'm sure, tovarischi.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 24 Oct 2018, 11:42

What's hilarious is one of the arguments being made is that Russia is cheating, so we should scrap it instead of enforcing it. That seems to set up a way to pull out of treaties and not get blamed, just cheat.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Aresen » 24 Oct 2018, 11:48

thoreau wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 11:18
Of all the arms control treaties to abandon, he walks away from one that favors the US over Russia. Coincidence, I'm sure, tovarischi.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com ... y-blunder/
I think the reason is more Trump's narcissism than anything else. Bolton can work on that to get whatever he wants. I wouldn't be surprised to see SALT on the chopping block next.

Bolton is Cardinal de Fleury to Trump's Louis XV.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 24 Oct 2018, 11:48

"Look, it's been shown that my campaign attempted to obtain items of value from agents of a foreign government during the election, so clearly we have to repeal that law, because people are violating it."
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Kolohe » 24 Oct 2018, 11:52

There has though been a longstanding skepticism of *all* the 20th century US-USSR/Russia arms control treaties from the Greater Bolton wing of the Republican party. It's why New START took forever to ratify, and almost wasn't.

So what Arsen just said.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 24 Oct 2018, 12:46

Bolton is no doubt one of the most useful idiots out there.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Taktix® » 24 Oct 2018, 13:41

Mo wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 11:42
What's hilarious is one of the arguments being made is that Russia is cheating, so we should scrap it instead of enforcing it. That seems to set up a way to pull out of treaties and not get blamed, just cheat.
Or they aren't even bothering to concoct a decent cover story anymore, because they know there's really no one left to hold dictators accountable.

See also: Khashoggi, Jamal
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 24 Oct 2018, 14:07

A world where nobody but the US even has capability to engage abroad and the US won't do anything other than drone weddings is a world where brinksmanship on the part of bad actors ultimately erodes credibility of deterrence postures. I don't think neocons were wrong about the nature of the tradeoff, they were wrong about the magnitude of the costs of action. The problem isn't really a sudden invasion of the whole world by Nazis, it's incremental poopheaded aggression that never seems worth it to actually deter. It's a legit hard problem to solve and why I can't exactly sign on to no foreign entanglements ever.

You can try sanction but somehow the poopheads always seem to manage just fine under those regimes.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Painboy » 24 Oct 2018, 14:36

Mo wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 11:42
What's hilarious is one of the arguments being made is that Russia is cheating, so we should scrap it instead of enforcing it. That seems to set up a way to pull out of treaties and not get blamed, just cheat.
How are we supposed to enforce it?

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Hugh Akston » 24 Oct 2018, 14:38

It's a shame that the only choices America has are ineffective hypocritical deterrence or costly quagmires that only make things worse. If only there were a third option...
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 24 Oct 2018, 14:51

Hugh Akston wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 14:38
It's a shame that the only choices America has are ineffective hypocritical deterrence or costly quagmires that only make things worse. If only there were a third option...
Nobody has ever successfully completed the Kobayashi Maru simulation, Hugh.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Kolohe » 24 Oct 2018, 15:06

There is a case to be made for a ctrl alt del of all the cold war and bi-lat US - Russia agreements to be replaced by a new stately quadrille arms control framework with the USA, Russia, China, & the EU as signatories. Though leaving both Japan & Korea outside that framework - with China in - is probably not sustainable either. (Leaving India & Pakistan outside the framework is both necessary and proper).

Of course, the Trump admin ain't the people to do this.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 24 Oct 2018, 16:44

Hugh Akston wrote:It's a shame that the only choices America has are ineffective hypocritical deterrence or costly quagmires that only make things worse. If only there were a third option...
Is that poopheads win forever and we ignore it or something else?

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 24 Oct 2018, 16:47

We already have a mechanism for making sure that shitheads win. It's called the Electoral College.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 24 Oct 2018, 16:51

It only applies to our own poopheads, which is a different problem.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Hugh Akston » 24 Oct 2018, 17:49

JasonL wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 16:44
Hugh Akston wrote:It's a shame that the only choices America has are ineffective hypocritical deterrence or costly quagmires that only make things worse. If only there were a third option...
Is that poopheads win forever and we ignore it or something else?
Well clearly it's something else since 'forever' is not a relevant concept in the sphere of human relations.

I'm thinking more like acknowledging that the United States has neither the moral authority nor the technical expertise to be the world's babysitter. Pull the empire back inside the border, focus on defending the fatherland from invasion and make it very clear that any attack on us means the end of your regime. Participate in regional/global alliances like NATO or something to protect shipping lanes or fight terries, but only on the basis of decision-making and resource-contributing parity rather than the we pull/you ride status quo. Make it clear that you're fine taking out bad guys that are a legit global threat, but occupation, nation-building, and propping up friendly dictators is not part of the deal. Sign treaties as statements of principle but forget about binding agreements because enforcement lol. Let regional parties solve regional problems and buy oil from whoever ends up on the top of the mountain of skulls.

tl;dr be the city on a hill built on top of a sleeping giant rather than the global PUA trying to neg the world into submission.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by lunchstealer » 24 Oct 2018, 18:14

Kolohe wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 15:06
(Leaving India & Pakistan outside the framework is both necessary and proper).
Can you unpack that a bit? My brain is getting foggy and I'm kind of confused.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Aresen » 24 Oct 2018, 18:15

thoreau wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 12:46
Bolton is no doubt one of the most useful idiots out there.
"Idiot" is not the word that Bolton brings to mind. I'll go with "mephistophelean."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Kolohe » 24 Oct 2018, 19:35

lunchstealer wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 18:14
Kolohe wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 15:06
(Leaving India & Pakistan outside the framework is both necessary and proper).
Can you unpack that a bit? My brain is getting foggy and I'm kind of confused.
They're not quite ready to sit at the big kids table (even though on paper, theoretically they should be), and their feud with each other is their Main Thing, so can be seperated somewhat from "Global Security" that the big boys need to manage.

It's more of a gut thing than anything else. There's a space it seems to me for an agreement framework more than bi-lat but less than the entire effin UN - the economic side has that with the G20, but I don't think there's a counterpart on the security side.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Warren » 24 Oct 2018, 19:51

Hugh Akston wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 17:49
JasonL wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 16:44
Hugh Akston wrote:It's a shame that the only choices America has are ineffective hypocritical deterrence or costly quagmires that only make things worse. If only there were a third option...
Is that poopheads win forever and we ignore it or something else?
Well clearly it's something else since 'forever' is not a relevant concept in the sphere of human relations.

I'm thinking more like acknowledging that the United States has neither the moral authority nor the technical expertise to be the world's babysitter. Pull the empire back inside the border, focus on defending the fatherland from invasion and make it very clear that any attack on us means the end of your regime. Participate in regional/global alliances like NATO or something to protect shipping lanes or fight terries, but only on the basis of decision-making and resource-contributing parity rather than the we pull/you ride status quo. Make it clear that you're fine taking out bad guys that are a legit global threat, but occupation, nation-building, and propping up friendly dictators is not part of the deal. Sign treaties as statements of principle but forget about binding agreements because enforcement lol. Let regional parties solve regional problems and buy oil from whoever ends up on the top of the mountain of skulls.

tl;dr be the city on a hill built on top of a sleeping giant rather than the global PUA trying to neg the world into submission.
HUGH 2024
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 25 Oct 2018, 04:40

Painboy wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 14:36
Mo wrote:
24 Oct 2018, 11:42
What's hilarious is one of the arguments being made is that Russia is cheating, so we should scrap it instead of enforcing it. That seems to set up a way to pull out of treaties and not get blamed, just cheat.
How are we supposed to enforce it?
Economic/financial sanctions against high level individuals.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 25 Oct 2018, 06:56

Is a Putin military presence of Ukraine a global threat? How about Czech Republic? Maybe makes it clear he just wants USSR back - that’s not the whole world is it?

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Hugh Akston » 25 Oct 2018, 11:18

JasonL wrote:
25 Oct 2018, 06:56
Is a Putin military presence of Ukraine a global threat? How about Czech Republic? Maybe makes it clear he just wants USSR back - that’s not the whole world is it?
Ukraine is a perfect example of a regional conflict. Russia is not a growth economy and doesn't have the resources to conquer much less maintain a global empire, but they are still a regional threat. Putin was emboldened by the knowledge that NATO et al weren't going to throw lead over Crimea, but a regional alliance of former Soviet states who didn't want to become future Soviet states might have pushed Putin out or deterred him in the first place.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 25 Oct 2018, 11:31

Bwaa? A regional alliance of those states couldn't credibly deter Luxembourg from invading nevermind the russian army.

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