Occam, Trump, and Russia

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thoreau
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 12 Jun 2018, 13:23

Team Mo.

And Team Falcon.
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Shem
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Shem » 12 Jun 2018, 13:57

JasonL wrote:
12 Jun 2018, 11:07
China makes a couple of moves that are favorable to his and Ivanka's business interests and suddenly Canada is the trade war adversary. That alone would be impeachable if we had a Congress with any sort of economic sense.
This is where you lose me. This would not be impeachable in any place where high crimes and misdemeanors required anything other than presumption of guilt. He has shifted several times on China, shifted several times on Russia and his approach to all public proclamations is to either (generously) wildly swing messaging on who has favor for strategic advantage or (unfavorably) fall in love with the last person he talked to because hes stupid. He approaches all issues like that so I don't see how you can get to impeachable corruption on China policy.
Article 1, Section 9, Clause 8 wrote:“No Title of Nobility shall be granted by the United States: And no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust under them, shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State.”
It literally matters not at all whether he took the check because he was accepting a bribe or because his products are A1 best in the world: it is a violation of the Constitution for the President to do business with a foreign government. A violation he committed the second his company accepted a 500-million dollar loan from a Chinese state owned company. And that's just the one of the top of my head.
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Dangerman
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Dangerman » 12 Jun 2018, 14:03

I don't think that there is an established set of facts in play, and this thread is a mess because of that. It would help me to have someone lay out a time line connecting the dots because there are not enough hours in the day to try and keep up.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 12 Jun 2018, 14:08

One problem with the sheer volume of Trump's misdeeds is that things that would be big stories on their own become background noise. Anything short of a recording of Trump thanking Kislyak for the DNC hack and promising specific concessions in return becomes a let down.

If anyone else was doing real estate deals with dirty Russian businessmen it would be a huge freaking deal. If Reagan had owned a major stake in a production company that got a big favor from a foreign government it would be front page news. With Trump, there's so much dirty stuff going on that any one piece seems minor and the "reasonable" stance is to not push too hard for anyone to pay a price for it.

If we set the precedent that all of this is normal we will suffer in the long term.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by JasonL » 12 Jun 2018, 14:09

That interpretation is open to interpretation apparently. If courts back it and by that I really mean SCOTUS hearing a case from people with standing, you don't need to talk about russia or anything else there you go.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 12 Jun 2018, 14:23

SCOTUS can't remove a president. Maybe they could block some of the parts of a business deal, depending on the nature of the case brought to them, and how much of the deal actually falls under US jurisdiction, but much of what is in play here will ultimately be political rather than technical. There are issues here that come down to political will and upholding of norms, not just technical issues for experts.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Mo
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Mo » 12 Jun 2018, 15:12

JasonL wrote:
12 Jun 2018, 14:09
That interpretation is open to interpretation apparently. If courts back it and by that I really mean SCOTUS hearing a case from people with standing, you don't need to talk about russia or anything else there you go.
Zero chance the SCOTUS takes it up. They'll punt on it as a political question and say that it's Congress' job to do it through impeachment hearings. Which is Congress' fucking job.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 12 Jun 2018, 15:21

I feel like there should also be another (political, not legal) test for impeachment: If somebody else did this, could they get a job as the parking lot attendant at a defense contractor doing classified work? If not, impeach.

It's a low bar. I doubt the parking lot attendant has to jump through the same hoops as the people doing compartmentalized top secret work, but if a background check shows that he's tied to a whole bunch of Russian mobsters I doubt anyone wants him on the property.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Eric the .5b » 12 Jun 2018, 17:10

Jadagul wrote:
12 Jun 2018, 04:24
I think that Trump getting away with it reinforces the impression that this is normal and acceptable. I think having him penalized for it reinforces the idea that this behavior isn't acceptable. We should find a way to not accept it.
By doing what?

There's fuck-all meaningful that "we" can do. In the realm of meaningless things, if we gnash our teeth about every damn thing he does...well, look at the disdainful reactions in the last couple dozen posts to liberals doing exactly that. If we keep mentally continent and not get bent out of shape with every way he's one of the worst presidents in our lives (given he hasn't started a war, yet), then we're being too cynical. No-win, nothing to gain.

Right now, I have to put my hopes in fucking Team Blue getting its shit together and managing not to crush their own momentum in a paroxysm of self-congratulatory overreach after the mid-terms. Right now, if I had to bet, I'd give pretty even odds of Trump getting re-elected, which makes me sick. And if that happens, Team Blue will double down on blaming everyone else, including gleefully eroding the credibility of the democratic process in this country, before admitting that, just maybe, they possibly failed.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 12 Jun 2018, 18:21

Eric the .5b wrote:
12 Jun 2018, 17:10
Right now, I have to put my hopes in fucking Team Blue getting its shit together and managing not to crush their own momentum in a paroxysm of self-congratulatory overreach after the mid-terms. Right now, if I had to bet, I'd give pretty even odds of Trump getting re-elected, which makes me sick. And if that happens, Team Blue will double down on blaming everyone else, including gleefully eroding the credibility of the democratic process in this country, before admitting that, just maybe, they possibly failed.
I agree with all of this, sadly.

I still have to pin my hopes on an impeachment because WTF else is there?
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Jennifer » 12 Jun 2018, 18:24

Eric the .5b wrote:
12 Jun 2018, 17:10
Right now, if I had to bet, I'd give pretty even odds of Trump getting re-elected, which makes me sick.
The appalling Supreme Court ruling that it's okay for states to kick registered voters off the rolls if they haven't voted recently make that even more likely, I fear.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Jadagul » 12 Jun 2018, 18:36

Eric the .5b wrote:
12 Jun 2018, 17:10
Jadagul wrote:
12 Jun 2018, 04:24
I think that Trump getting away with it reinforces the impression that this is normal and acceptable. I think having him penalized for it reinforces the idea that this behavior isn't acceptable. We should find a way to not accept it.
By doing what?

There's fuck-all meaningful that "we" can do. In the realm of meaningless things, if we gnash our teeth about every damn thing he does...well, look at the disdainful reactions in the last couple dozen posts to liberals doing exactly that. If we keep mentally continent and not get bent out of shape with every way he's one of the worst presidents in our lives (given he hasn't started a war, yet), then we're being too cynical. No-win, nothing to gain.

Right now, I have to put my hopes in fucking Team Blue getting its shit together and managing not to crush their own momentum in a paroxysm of self-congratulatory overreach after the mid-terms. Right now, if I had to bet, I'd give pretty even odds of Trump getting re-elected, which makes me sick. And if that happens, Team Blue will double down on blaming everyone else, including gleefully eroding the credibility of the democratic process in this country, before admitting that, just maybe, they possibly failed.
"We" in this case is some blend of "the electorate" and "politicians in Washington."

The people I'm most frustrated with are people like Flake and McCain, who clearly know things are bad, theoretically want to do something, but don't seem to be taking any concrete actions when they probably could.

(Though I guess I should give McCain _some_ sympathy for being half-dead; there's probably a limit to the energy he can put into this).

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Eric the .5b » 12 Jun 2018, 18:47

Jadagul wrote:
12 Jun 2018, 18:36
"We" in this case is some blend of "the electorate" and "politicians in Washington."
That is not a meaningful or worthwhile "we".
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by thoreau » 12 Jun 2018, 18:50

If this were the first time that McCain had ever been useless, yeah, I'd cut him some slack.

But McCain has been all sorts of bad in all sorts of ways for a very long time.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Dangerman » 13 Jun 2018, 14:13

I like McCain. I liked when he shut down the "Obama is a Muslim" lady at his campaign event, and I've liked his responses to Trump so far. I have disagreement with him on a lot of issues, but I think that he does have a lot of principled positions that I can respect him for.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by tr0g » 13 Jun 2018, 14:21

Dangerman wrote:
13 Jun 2018, 14:13
I like McCain. I liked when he shut down the "Obama is a Muslim" lady at his campaign event, and I've liked his responses to Trump so far. I have disagreement with him on a lot of issues, but I think that he does have a lot of principled positions that I can respect him for.
Any amount of respect I might have ever had for John McCain has evaporated because he is incapable of doing his job and won't resign. Go die and let somebody else be Senator.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Kolohe » 13 Jun 2018, 14:23

team tr0g
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Aresen » 13 Jun 2018, 14:50

Mmmmm

'Die in a Senate' just doesn't have the same ring to it.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Warren » 13 Jun 2018, 15:02

All the stuff he's done that I can support doesn't add up to the anti free speech/campaign finance stuff he's done.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 13 Jun 2018, 15:43

Sufficient grounds for impeachment and removal are whatever has enough votes in Congress. Teapot Dome certainly ruined whatever was left of the Harding Administration and his Sec. of Army did get convicted of bribery and sent to prison. The law isn't troubled by the "correlation isn't causation" admonition; a sufficiently high correlation of facts giving rise to a rebuttable presumption of an illegal quid pro quo which would suffice for civil purposes. For that matter, laymen and writers commonly yack about the insufficiency of circumstantial evidence, but circumstantial evidence is admissible and probative and if it rises to the burden of proof required, then it suffices all on its own for a judgement or verdict.

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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by lunchstealer » 13 Jun 2018, 16:23

tr0g wrote:
13 Jun 2018, 14:21
Dangerman wrote:
13 Jun 2018, 14:13
I like McCain. I liked when he shut down the "Obama is a Muslim" lady at his campaign event, and I've liked his responses to Trump so far. I have disagreement with him on a lot of issues, but I think that he does have a lot of principled positions that I can respect him for.
Any amount of respect I might have ever had for John McCain has evaporated because he is incapable of doing his job and won't resign. Go die and let somebody else be Senator.
Wait, you want Senators to do more?
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by Eric the .5b » 13 Jun 2018, 18:49

Jennifer wrote:
12 Jun 2018, 18:24
Eric the .5b wrote:
12 Jun 2018, 17:10
Right now, if I had to bet, I'd give pretty even odds of Trump getting re-elected, which makes me sick.
The appalling Supreme Court ruling that it's okay for states to kick registered voters off the rolls if they haven't voted recently make that even more likely, I fear.
One hopes they actually bother to vote this year (assuming they didn't vote in 2016, as it's "hasn't voted in the last two federal elections"), then, or else register. This is why we have voter-registration drives.

Mind, that's not saying that voter registration at all isn't the problem. I realize there are practical reasons for it, but if states can sic a person for property taxes, income taxes, vehicle registration, etc., they can damn well recognize that someone is a citizen and resident who gets to vote there.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by tr0g » 14 Jun 2018, 15:16

lunchstealer wrote:
13 Jun 2018, 16:23
tr0g wrote:
13 Jun 2018, 14:21
Dangerman wrote:
13 Jun 2018, 14:13
I like McCain. I liked when he shut down the "Obama is a Muslim" lady at his campaign event, and I've liked his responses to Trump so far. I have disagreement with him on a lot of issues, but I think that he does have a lot of principled positions that I can respect him for.
Any amount of respect I might have ever had for John McCain has evaporated because he is incapable of doing his job and won't resign. Go die and let somebody else be Senator.
Wait, you want Senators to do more?
He can't vote against stupid and/or horrific legislation from his hospital bed. I mean, not that he would, but there is a slight chance something might offend his sole remaining scruple.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by lunchstealer » 14 Jun 2018, 17:10

Right but he can't vote for it, either. Do they have to get 50/51 votes to pass? Or is 49/48 a win?
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 14 Jun 2018, 17:23

lunchstealer wrote:
14 Jun 2018, 17:10
Right but he can't vote for it, either. Do they have to get 50/51 votes to pass? Or is 49/48 a win?
Actually, if I recall correctly, if no Democratic Senators are on the floor and McCain is absent, there isn't a quorum. I forget the circumstances under which Senators can be required to be on the Senate floor, though.

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