Occam, Trump, and Russia

[Eric the .5b]

What the campaigns (the successful ones) spend money on is voter turnout. The stuff the russian trolls put out wouldn't have had any noticible effect given that they were dwarfed by the emourmous amount of other efforts out there. Releasing the email nonsense didn't suddenly change people's opinion on Hilliary. She's been in politics for the last 25 years. People made up thier minds about her years ago whatever they may have stated in a poll.

Just so. There weren't hordes of people dithering over whether they should vote for Hillary Clinton or the guy who kept promising to put her in jail. There weren't a significant number of voters who didn't know what they thought of Clinton and Trump—both of them had been household names since back when MTV actually played music videos.

[Shem]

Trump has pushed (admittedly unsuccessfully) for Russia to be let back into the G7.

He's dragging his feet on implementing sanctions passed by Congress.

There's also the time he relaxed sanctions on the company of the Russian oligarch Paul Manafort owes 19 million dollars to, in exchange for a promise that the guy will really, really cede his stake, he swears on the seesaw. After Paul Manafort was intercepted asking his co-conspirator how they can use his position in the campaign to get out from under the debt.

No matter how many times we point this shit out, we're just a couple pages away from someone saying "sure, there was a lot of conspiracy talk, but where are the effects?"

[Shem]

What the campaigns (the successful ones) spend money on is voter turnout. The stuff the russian trolls put out wouldn't have had any noticible effect given that they were dwarfed by the emourmous amount of other efforts out there. Releasing the email nonsense didn't suddenly change people's opinion on Hilliary. She's been in politics for the last 25 years. People made up thier minds about her years ago whatever they may have stated in a poll.

The Russians also funded and orchestrated events through Facebook that attracted thousands of people. Have you examined the output of the troll factories?

[thoreau]

Trump has pushed (admittedly unsuccessfully) for Russia to be let back into the G7.

He's dragging his feet on implementing sanctions passed by Congress.

There's also the time he relaxed sanctions on the company of the Russian oligarch Paul Manafort owes 19 million dollars to, in exchange for a promise that the guy will really, really cede his stake, he swears on the seesaw. After Paul Manafort was intercepted asking his co-conspirator how they can use his position in the campaign to get out from under the debt.

No matter how many times we point this shit out, we're just a couple pages away from someone saying "sure, there was a lot of conspiracy talk, but where are the effects?"

Usually it's not even that. It's "Ok, so the Russians paid some people to say shit on Facebook, but that's not what sways elections."

"Um, his campaign manager works with Kremlin agents and now the President is pushing for Russia to be let back into the G7."

"Yeah, but it's all people saying shit on Facebook. Voters don't respond to that."

Trump has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.

But, no, I don't care much if some people talk shit on Facebook. So I guess there's nothing here.

[Warren]

p has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.

LOL Oh Em Gee You've got it so bad.
You think that isn't already a president? You think Chen.. I mean W went into Iraq over WMD? Seriously dude take a break from the POTUS. Like don't even read or watch the news it's making you stupid.

[thoreau]

Maybe I'm stupid but at least I know how to spell "precedent."

And I learned how to spell in spite of majoring in STEM rather than librul artz.

[Pham Nuwen]

Maybe I'm stupid but at least I know how to spell "precedent."

And I learned how to spell in spite of majoring in STEM rather than librul artz.

Goddamn.

[Dangerman]

It's obvious that Trump is self interested. The North Korea talks are just a way for him to get in on the ground floor on development of some extremely undervalued real estate just outside Seoul.

[Shem]

p has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.

LOL Oh Em Gee You've got it so bad.
You think that isn't already a president? You think Chen.. I mean W went into Iraq over WMD? Seriously dude take a break from the POTUS. Like don't even read or watch the news it's making you stupid.

Alternately, you could try actually reading some news before deciding your cynicism provides you all the expertise you could ever need.

[Warren]

p has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.

LOL Oh Em Gee You've got it so bad.
You think that isn't already a president? You think Chen.. I mean W went into Iraq over WMD? Seriously dude take a break from the POTUS. Like don't even read or watch the news it's making you stupid.

Alternately, you could try actually reading some news before deciding your cynicism provides you all the expertise you could ever need.

pul-ese

[Jennifer]

Out of curiosity, are you still riding the "Hillary would've been worse" train, Warren?

[Shem]

p has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.

LOL Oh Em Gee You've got it so bad.
You think that isn't already a president? You think Chen.. I mean W went into Iraq over WMD? Seriously dude take a break from the POTUS. Like don't even read or watch the news it's making you stupid.

Alternately, you could try actually reading some news before deciding your cynicism provides you all the expertise you could ever need.

pul-ese

Then by all means tell me, what's normal about Paul Manafort. With specifics.

[Warren]

p has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.

LOL Oh Em Gee You've got it so bad.
You think that isn't already a president? You think Chen.. I mean W went into Iraq over WMD? Seriously dude take a break from the POTUS. Like don't even read or watch the news it's making you stupid.

Alternately, you could try actually reading some news before deciding your cynicism provides you all the expertise you could ever need.

pul-ese

Then by all means tell me, what's normal about Paul Manafort. With specifics.

I have no idea what kind of "specifics" would impress you. Manafort is a lobyist. He speaks to people in power pressing the case of those that pay him. It's arguably the single most normal activity in D.C.

[thoreau]

p has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.

LOL Oh Em Gee You've got it so bad.
You think that isn't already a president? You think Chen.. I mean W went into Iraq over WMD? Seriously dude take a break from the POTUS. Like don't even read or watch the news it's making you stupid.

Alternately, you could try actually reading some news before deciding your cynicism provides you all the expertise you could ever need.

pul-ese

Then by all means tell me, what's normal about Paul Manafort. With specifics.

I have no idea what kind of "specifics" would impress you. Manafort is a lobyist. He speaks to people in power pressing the case of those that pay him. It's arguably the single most normal activity in D.C.

Yes, Manafort's a whore. So are many other people in DC.

I still think there are good reasons to prefer that America's leaders not surround themselves with whores tied to Russia, and not have business dealings that would leave them susceptible to blackmail by foreign governments.

I don't think there's a peepee tape. I think there are Kremlin-friendly businessmen with documents that could prove financial crimes. Crimes that could threaten Trump's business empire.

[JasonL]

Always useful - are anyone’s beliefs on the amount of influence falsifiable?

[Warren]

I still think there are good reasons to prefer that America's leaders not surround themselves with whores tied to Russia, and not have business dealings that would leave them susceptible to blackmail by foreign governments.

I don't think there's a peepee tape. I think there are Kremlin-friendly businessmen with documents that could prove financial crimes. Crimes that could threaten Trump's business empire.

I agree. I just don't see it as categorically different from any other administration. And I certainly don't see it as something that threatens the security of The Republic. On the list of things our government is doing that scare the shit out of me, any moneys changing hands between Donald & Co. and the Kremlin isn't in the top ten.

[lunchstealer]

I think Russian troll farms + email hack (which solidified the "Hillary is a crook who stole the election from Bernie" theme) is probably enough to have pushed some people to make that snap fickle decision that they then spent the intervening months justifying. And it's worth remembering that the Russian trolls weren't just alt-right guys. There were a lot of ones pushing hard-left stuff that drove down Team Blue turnout. A big thing they've focused on is pushing the division between left and right, which is going to hurt a centrist like Hdawg.

I can't tell you that it had a big enough effect to swing the big three and flip the election or that H would've won without it. But it doesn't seem like you can just dismiss the combo of the DNC hack and the troll farms as wholly irrelevant.

Of course they're not falsifiable. Counter claims are also unfalsifiable. The whole thing is speculation, but there are facts on the ground, and those facts are that Putin dumped money into the troll farms and that he also pushed the DNC hack, and I'm not sure how much of that he just does out of spite for Hillary without thinking that it will do something to weaken US resistance to his goals for Russia.

[thoreau]

Always useful - are anyone’s beliefs on the amount of influence falsifiable?

In principle, yes. A deep dive into his business dealings might show that there's little or nothing that Russia could hold over him. An intelligence source might reveal that the Kremlin was frustrated by how little Manafort and other assets were able to accomplish. A White House source might reveal that Trump was, in fact, tough in private talks with Putin. We can debate how tough would be tough enough to prove lack of influence, but I think the basic outline is reasonable.

I think the case for negligence and blatant disegard of duty (not violations of criminal law but arguably impeachable) is almost self-evident at this point. Russia got a lot of people close to Trump's orbit and he is remarkably unconcerned and remarkably uninterested in investigating. Maybe his motive is simply arrogant disregard, a belief that because he wasn't influenced it doesn't matter and hence there's no need for counterintelligence work. That's still a violation of his duty to ensure that laws are faithfully executed, still a reason to consider him unfit even if uninfluenced.

But the self-evident case for disregard for duty does at least make it plausible that he was influenced, plausible that there's more. It is a good starting point for an investigation, and even if a full investigation doesn't validate the darkest allegations there's no plausible way for him to come out of this looking good. He's shown remarkable disregard for Paul Manafort's business dealings, and that alone may be good reason to not trust Trump with authority or secrets.

[Jennifer]

Without Trump, I never would've known that Russia is our nation's best buddy whereas Canada is a threat to our national security.

[thoreau]

Without Trump, I never would've known that Russia is our nation's best buddy whereas Canada is a threat to our national security.

If Trump isn't being blackmailed then he is one of the most deluded people ever.

[Jennifer]

Without Trump, I never would've known that Russia is our nation's best buddy whereas Canada is a threat to our national security.

If Trump isn't being blackmailed then he is one of the most deluded people ever.

And "Trump plus the Russians" isn't even the only potential national security problem he's caused. There's too damn many to keep up with them all -- WTF is up with that Chinese telecom Trump's been trying to rehabilitate? Is it a quid pro quo for China just happening to grant lots of Trump-brand copyrights in that country? Why does Trump think pissing off our allies in the G7 is a good idea? Seriously, is he actively trying to fuck things up, or is he genuinely too dumb to know that he is, or is he viewing things solely through the lens of "How can I enrich myself and the Trump brand" with nary a thought for American national interests, or what?

[Jadagul]

Always useful - are anyone’s beliefs on the amount of influence falsifiable?

I've revised my estimate of Russia's influence over Trump upwards a couple of times. Does that count?

[Painboy]

What the campaigns (the successful ones) spend money on is voter turnout. The stuff the russian trolls put out wouldn't have had any noticible effect given that they were dwarfed by the emourmous amount of other efforts out there. Releasing the email nonsense didn't suddenly change people's opinion on Hilliary. She's been in politics for the last 25 years. People made up thier minds about her years ago whatever they may have stated in a poll.

The Russians also funded and orchestrated events through Facebook that attracted thousands of people. Have you examined the output of the troll factories?

They spammed thousands of people with fake stuff that confirmed the views those people already held. Maybe some Alex Jones listeners bought in to it but they're already crazypants anyway. The only thing the russian trolls accomplished is to get everyone to freak out about russian trolls. So if that was their aim then I guess in that sense they were successful.

[thoreau]

Without Trump, I never would've known that Russia is our nation's best buddy whereas Canada is a threat to our national security.

If Trump isn't being blackmailed then he is one of the most deluded people ever.

And "Trump plus the Russians" isn't even the only potential national security problem he's caused. There's too damn many to keep up with them all -- WTF is up with that Chinese telecom Trump's been trying to rehabilitate? Is it a quid pro quo for China just happening to grant lots of Trump-brand copyrights in that country? Why does Trump think pissing off our allies in the G7 is a good idea? Seriously, is he actively trying to fuck things up, or is he genuinely too dumb to know that he is, or is he viewing things solely through the lens of "How can I enrich myself and the Trump brand" with nary a thought for American national interests, or what?

Some of the dismissals of concern seem to amount to "Eh, they're all crooked. He's no different." They might as well have a marmot bite someone and say "I believe in nossink Lebowski. Nossink" while their friend pees on a dude's rug.

[thoreau]

What the campaigns (the successful ones) spend money on is voter turnout. The stuff the russian trolls put out wouldn't have had any noticible effect given that they were dwarfed by the emourmous amount of other efforts out there. Releasing the email nonsense didn't suddenly change people's opinion on Hilliary. She's been in politics for the last 25 years. People made up thier minds about her years ago whatever they may have stated in a poll.

The Russians also funded and orchestrated events through Facebook that attracted thousands of people. Have you examined the output of the troll factories?

They spammed thousands of people with fake stuff that confirmed the views those people already held. Maybe some Alex Jones listeners bought in to it but they're already crazypants anyway. The only thing the russian trolls accomplished is to get everyone to freak out about russian trolls. So if that was their aim then I guess in that sense they were successful.

They also got people to talk about Russian trolls while ignoring Paul Manafort's business dealings, or Trump's foot dragging in implementing sanctions passed by Congress.

So I guess I should up my appraisal of their effectiveness.