Just so. There weren't hordes of people dithering over whether they should vote for Hillary Clinton or the guy who kept promising to put her in jail. There weren't a significant number of voters who didn't know what they thought of Clinton and Trump—both of them had been household names since back when MTV actually played music videos.Painboy wrote: ↑08 Jun 2018, 17:55What the campaigns (the successful ones) spend money on is voter turnout. The stuff the russian trolls put out wouldn't have had any noticible effect given that they were dwarfed by the emourmous amount of other efforts out there. Releasing the email nonsense didn't suddenly change people's opinion on Hilliary. She's been in politics for the last 25 years. People made up thier minds about her years ago whatever they may have stated in a poll.
Occam, Trump, and Russia
- Eric the .5b
- Posts: 12814
- Joined: 26 Apr 2010, 16:29
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
"Cyberpunk never really gave the government enough credit for their ability to secure a favorable prenup during the Corporate-State wedding." - Shem
"Cyberpunk never really gave the government enough credit for their ability to secure a favorable prenup during the Corporate-State wedding." - Shem
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
There's also the time he relaxed sanctions on the company of the Russian oligarch Paul Manafort owes 19 million dollars to, in exchange for a promise that the guy will really, really cede his stake, he swears on the seesaw. After Paul Manafort was intercepted asking his co-conspirator how they can use his position in the campaign to get out from under the debt.
No matter how many times we point this shit out, we're just a couple pages away from someone saying "sure, there was a lot of conspiracy talk, but where are the effects?"
"VOTE SHEMOCRACY! You will only have to do it once!" -Loyalty Officer Aresen
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
The Russians also funded and orchestrated events through Facebook that attracted thousands of people. Have you examined the output of the troll factories?Painboy wrote: ↑08 Jun 2018, 17:55What the campaigns (the successful ones) spend money on is voter turnout. The stuff the russian trolls put out wouldn't have had any noticible effect given that they were dwarfed by the emourmous amount of other efforts out there. Releasing the email nonsense didn't suddenly change people's opinion on Hilliary. She's been in politics for the last 25 years. People made up thier minds about her years ago whatever they may have stated in a poll.
"VOTE SHEMOCRACY! You will only have to do it once!" -Loyalty Officer Aresen
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
Usually it's not even that. It's "Ok, so the Russians paid some people to say shit on Facebook, but that's not what sways elections."Shem wrote:There's also the time he relaxed sanctions on the company of the Russian oligarch Paul Manafort owes 19 million dollars to, in exchange for a promise that the guy will really, really cede his stake, he swears on the seesaw. After Paul Manafort was intercepted asking his co-conspirator how they can use his position in the campaign to get out from under the debt.
No matter how many times we point this shit out, we're just a couple pages away from someone saying "sure, there was a lot of conspiracy talk, but where are the effects?"
"Um, his campaign manager works with Kremlin agents and now the President is pushing for Russia to be let back into the G7."
"Yeah, but it's all people saying shit on Facebook. Voters don't respond to that."
Trump has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.
But, no, I don't care much if some people talk shit on Facebook. So I guess there's nothing here.
"just build a quantum foam wall and make the tardigrades pay for it."
--Hugh
--Hugh
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
LOL Oh Em Gee You've got it so bad.thoreau wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 11:42p has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.
You think that isn't already a president? You think Chen.. I mean W went into Iraq over WMD? Seriously dude take a break from the POTUS. Like don't even read or watch the news it's making you stupid.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
Maybe I'm stupid but at least I know how to spell "precedent."
And I learned how to spell in spite of majoring in STEM rather than librul artz.
And I learned how to spell in spite of majoring in STEM rather than librul artz.
"just build a quantum foam wall and make the tardigrades pay for it."
--Hugh
--Hugh
- Pham Nuwen
- Posts: 7026
- Joined: 27 Apr 2010, 02:17
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
Goddamn.
Goddamn libertarian message board. Hugh Akston
leave me to my mescaline smoothie in peace, please. dhex
leave me to my mescaline smoothie in peace, please. dhex
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
It's obvious that Trump is self interested. The North Korea talks are just a way for him to get in on the ground floor on development of some extremely undervalued real estate just outside Seoul.
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
Alternately, you could try actually reading some news before deciding your cynicism provides you all the expertise you could ever need.Warren wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 12:00LOL Oh Em Gee You've got it so bad.thoreau wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 11:42p has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.
You think that isn't already a president? You think Chen.. I mean W went into Iraq over WMD? Seriously dude take a break from the POTUS. Like don't even read or watch the news it's making you stupid.
"VOTE SHEMOCRACY! You will only have to do it once!" -Loyalty Officer Aresen
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
pul-eseShem wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 13:56Alternately, you could try actually reading some news before deciding your cynicism provides you all the expertise you could ever need.Warren wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 12:00LOL Oh Em Gee You've got it so bad.thoreau wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 11:42p has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.
You think that isn't already a president? You think Chen.. I mean W went into Iraq over WMD? Seriously dude take a break from the POTUS. Like don't even read or watch the news it's making you stupid.
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Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
Out of curiosity, are you still riding the "Hillary would've been worse" train, Warren?
"Myself, despite what they say about libertarians, I think we're actually allowed to pursue options beyond futility or sucking the dicks of the powerful." -- Eric the .5b
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
Then by all means tell me, what's normal about Paul Manafort. With specifics.Warren wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 13:58pul-eseShem wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 13:56Alternately, you could try actually reading some news before deciding your cynicism provides you all the expertise you could ever need.Warren wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 12:00LOL Oh Em Gee You've got it so bad.thoreau wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 11:42p has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.
You think that isn't already a president? You think Chen.. I mean W went into Iraq over WMD? Seriously dude take a break from the POTUS. Like don't even read or watch the news it's making you stupid.
"VOTE SHEMOCRACY! You will only have to do it once!" -Loyalty Officer Aresen
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
I have no idea what kind of "specifics" would impress you. Manafort is a lobyist. He speaks to people in power pressing the case of those that pay him. It's arguably the single most normal activity in D.C.Shem wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 14:05Then by all means tell me, what's normal about Paul Manafort. With specifics.Warren wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 13:58pul-eseShem wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 13:56Alternately, you could try actually reading some news before deciding your cynicism provides you all the expertise you could ever need.Warren wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 12:00LOL Oh Em Gee You've got it so bad.thoreau wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 11:42p has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.
You think that isn't already a president? You think Chen.. I mean W went into Iraq over WMD? Seriously dude take a break from the POTUS. Like don't even read or watch the news it's making you stupid.
THIS SPACE FOR RENT
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
Yes, Manafort's a whore. So are many other people in DC.Warren wrote:I have no idea what kind of "specifics" would impress you. Manafort is a lobyist. He speaks to people in power pressing the case of those that pay him. It's arguably the single most normal activity in D.C.Shem wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 14:05Then by all means tell me, what's normal about Paul Manafort. With specifics.Warren wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 13:58pul-eseShem wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 13:56Alternately, you could try actually reading some news before deciding your cynicism provides you all the expertise you could ever need.Warren wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 12:00LOL Oh Em Gee You've got it so bad.thoreau wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 11:42p has spent a long time doing shady real estate deals with Russian businessmen who have things to hide. It should be no great surprise that Kremlin agents and their buddies could get inside his campaign. It should be no great surprise that Trump's more interested in pleasing Russia than working with traditional allies. If we don't impeach and remove over this then we are setting a precedent that will hurt us for a very long time to come.
You think that isn't already a president? You think Chen.. I mean W went into Iraq over WMD? Seriously dude take a break from the POTUS. Like don't even read or watch the news it's making you stupid.
I still think there are good reasons to prefer that America's leaders not surround themselves with whores tied to Russia, and not have business dealings that would leave them susceptible to blackmail by foreign governments.
I don't think there's a peepee tape. I think there are Kremlin-friendly businessmen with documents that could prove financial crimes. Crimes that could threaten Trump's business empire.
"just build a quantum foam wall and make the tardigrades pay for it."
--Hugh
--Hugh
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
Always useful - are anyone’s beliefs on the amount of influence falsifiable?
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
I agree. I just don't see it as categorically different from any other administration. And I certainly don't see it as something that threatens the security of The Republic. On the list of things our government is doing that scare the shit out of me, any moneys changing hands between Donald & Co. and the Kremlin isn't in the top ten.thoreau wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 14:33I still think there are good reasons to prefer that America's leaders not surround themselves with whores tied to Russia, and not have business dealings that would leave them susceptible to blackmail by foreign governments.
I don't think there's a peepee tape. I think there are Kremlin-friendly businessmen with documents that could prove financial crimes. Crimes that could threaten Trump's business empire.
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- lunchstealer
- Posts: 16377
- Joined: 26 Apr 2010, 17:25
- Location: The Local Fluff in the Local Bubble
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
I think Russian troll farms + email hack (which solidified the "Hillary is a crook who stole the election from Bernie" theme) is probably enough to have pushed some people to make that snap fickle decision that they then spent the intervening months justifying. And it's worth remembering that the Russian trolls weren't just alt-right guys. There were a lot of ones pushing hard-left stuff that drove down Team Blue turnout. A big thing they've focused on is pushing the division between left and right, which is going to hurt a centrist like Hdawg.
I can't tell you that it had a big enough effect to swing the big three and flip the election or that H would've won without it. But it doesn't seem like you can just dismiss the combo of the DNC hack and the troll farms as wholly irrelevant.
Of course they're not falsifiable. Counter claims are also unfalsifiable. The whole thing is speculation, but there are facts on the ground, and those facts are that Putin dumped money into the troll farms and that he also pushed the DNC hack, and I'm not sure how much of that he just does out of spite for Hillary without thinking that it will do something to weaken US resistance to his goals for Russia.
I can't tell you that it had a big enough effect to swing the big three and flip the election or that H would've won without it. But it doesn't seem like you can just dismiss the combo of the DNC hack and the troll farms as wholly irrelevant.
Of course they're not falsifiable. Counter claims are also unfalsifiable. The whole thing is speculation, but there are facts on the ground, and those facts are that Putin dumped money into the troll farms and that he also pushed the DNC hack, and I'm not sure how much of that he just does out of spite for Hillary without thinking that it will do something to weaken US resistance to his goals for Russia.
"The constitution is more of a BDSM agreement with a safe word." - Sandy
"Neoliberalism. Austerity. Booga booga!!!!" - JasonL
"We can't confirm rumors that Lynndie England is in the running to be Gina Haspel's personal aide." - DAR
"Neoliberalism. Austerity. Booga booga!!!!" - JasonL
"We can't confirm rumors that Lynndie England is in the running to be Gina Haspel's personal aide." - DAR
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
In principle, yes. A deep dive into his business dealings might show that there's little or nothing that Russia could hold over him. An intelligence source might reveal that the Kremlin was frustrated by how little Manafort and other assets were able to accomplish. A White House source might reveal that Trump was, in fact, tough in private talks with Putin. We can debate how tough would be tough enough to prove lack of influence, but I think the basic outline is reasonable.JasonL wrote:Always useful - are anyone’s beliefs on the amount of influence falsifiable?
I think the case for negligence and blatant disegard of duty (not violations of criminal law but arguably impeachable) is almost self-evident at this point. Russia got a lot of people close to Trump's orbit and he is remarkably unconcerned and remarkably uninterested in investigating. Maybe his motive is simply arrogant disregard, a belief that because he wasn't influenced it doesn't matter and hence there's no need for counterintelligence work. That's still a violation of his duty to ensure that laws are faithfully executed, still a reason to consider him unfit even if uninfluenced.
But the self-evident case for disregard for duty does at least make it plausible that he was influenced, plausible that there's more. It is a good starting point for an investigation, and even if a full investigation doesn't validate the darkest allegations there's no plausible way for him to come out of this looking good. He's shown remarkable disregard for Paul Manafort's business dealings, and that alone may be good reason to not trust Trump with authority or secrets.
"just build a quantum foam wall and make the tardigrades pay for it."
--Hugh
--Hugh
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
Without Trump, I never would've known that Russia is our nation's best buddy whereas Canada is a threat to our national security.
"Myself, despite what they say about libertarians, I think we're actually allowed to pursue options beyond futility or sucking the dicks of the powerful." -- Eric the .5b
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
If Trump isn't being blackmailed then he is one of the most deluded people ever.Jennifer wrote:Without Trump, I never would've known that Russia is our nation's best buddy whereas Canada is a threat to our national security.
"just build a quantum foam wall and make the tardigrades pay for it."
--Hugh
--Hugh
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
And "Trump plus the Russians" isn't even the only potential national security problem he's caused. There's too damn many to keep up with them all -- WTF is up with that Chinese telecom Trump's been trying to rehabilitate? Is it a quid pro quo for China just happening to grant lots of Trump-brand copyrights in that country? Why does Trump think pissing off our allies in the G7 is a good idea? Seriously, is he actively trying to fuck things up, or is he genuinely too dumb to know that he is, or is he viewing things solely through the lens of "How can I enrich myself and the Trump brand" with nary a thought for American national interests, or what?
"Myself, despite what they say about libertarians, I think we're actually allowed to pursue options beyond futility or sucking the dicks of the powerful." -- Eric the .5b
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
They spammed thousands of people with fake stuff that confirmed the views those people already held. Maybe some Alex Jones listeners bought in to it but they're already crazypants anyway. The only thing the russian trolls accomplished is to get everyone to freak out about russian trolls. So if that was their aim then I guess in that sense they were successful.Shem wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 02:15The Russians also funded and orchestrated events through Facebook that attracted thousands of people. Have you examined the output of the troll factories?Painboy wrote: ↑08 Jun 2018, 17:55What the campaigns (the successful ones) spend money on is voter turnout. The stuff the russian trolls put out wouldn't have had any noticible effect given that they were dwarfed by the emourmous amount of other efforts out there. Releasing the email nonsense didn't suddenly change people's opinion on Hilliary. She's been in politics for the last 25 years. People made up thier minds about her years ago whatever they may have stated in a poll.
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
Some of the dismissals of concern seem to amount to "Eh, they're all crooked. He's no different." They might as well have a marmot bite someone and say "I believe in nossink Lebowski. Nossink" while their friend pees on a dude's rug.Jennifer wrote:And "Trump plus the Russians" isn't even the only potential national security problem he's caused. There's too damn many to keep up with them all -- WTF is up with that Chinese telecom Trump's been trying to rehabilitate? Is it a quid pro quo for China just happening to grant lots of Trump-brand copyrights in that country? Why does Trump think pissing off our allies in the G7 is a good idea? Seriously, is he actively trying to fuck things up, or is he genuinely too dumb to know that he is, or is he viewing things solely through the lens of "How can I enrich myself and the Trump brand" with nary a thought for American national interests, or what?
"just build a quantum foam wall and make the tardigrades pay for it."
--Hugh
--Hugh
Re: Occam, Trump, and Russia
They also got people to talk about Russian trolls while ignoring Paul Manafort's business dealings, or Trump's foot dragging in implementing sanctions passed by Congress.Painboy wrote:They spammed thousands of people with fake stuff that confirmed the views those people already held. Maybe some Alex Jones listeners bought in to it but they're already crazypants anyway. The only thing the russian trolls accomplished is to get everyone to freak out about russian trolls. So if that was their aim then I guess in that sense they were successful.Shem wrote: ↑10 Jun 2018, 02:15The Russians also funded and orchestrated events through Facebook that attracted thousands of people. Have you examined the output of the troll factories?Painboy wrote: ↑08 Jun 2018, 17:55What the campaigns (the successful ones) spend money on is voter turnout. The stuff the russian trolls put out wouldn't have had any noticible effect given that they were dwarfed by the emourmous amount of other efforts out there. Releasing the email nonsense didn't suddenly change people's opinion on Hilliary. She's been in politics for the last 25 years. People made up thier minds about her years ago whatever they may have stated in a poll.
So I guess I should up my appraisal of their effectiveness.
"just build a quantum foam wall and make the tardigrades pay for it."
--Hugh
--Hugh
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