When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Poll ended at 18 Sep 2017, 14:57

Impeached and convicted before 2018 mid-terms
1
3%
Impeached and acquitted before 2018 mid-terms
2
7%
Impeached and convicted before 2020 general
3
10%
Impeached and acquitted before 2020 general
4
13%
Impeached and convicted between 2020 and 2022
0
No votes
Impeached and acquitted between 2020 and 2022
1
3%
Impeached and convicted after 2022 mid-terms
1
3%
Impeached and acquitted after 2022 mid-terms
0
No votes
Impeached multiple times before leaving office
0
No votes
Will not be impeached
18
60%
 
Total votes: 30

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lunchstealer
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by lunchstealer »

"Dude she's the Purdue Pharma of the black pill." - JasonL

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Shem
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Shem »

New wrinkle; it was apparently also no-knock. He was woke up by FBI agents knocking on his bedroom door.
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thoreau
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by thoreau »

I am quite surprised that they would do that to a guy with his lawyers and connections.

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thoreau
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by thoreau »

According to Hannity, instead of doing a search they should have treated him as innocent until proven guilty.

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/hannity-off ... uilty/amp/

Because apparently getting a search warrant violates the presumption of innocence in Hannity Law.

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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Sandy »

Taktix® wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 10:19
Manafort's House Was Raided.

Not searched, not subpoenaed. Motherfuckin' raided.

SQUEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!
Two weeks ago. Interestingly tight lid on that.
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fyodor
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by fyodor »

nicole wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 13:55
fyodor wrote:
09 Aug 2017, 13:26
Kinda drifting here, but do such decisions by judges ever face any kind of public scrutiny, even well after the fact? I'm not sure if I've ever heard any discussion of such decisions (as in decisions that were actually made, one way or another, did the judge do right or err, that kind of thing).
You, uh, may be familiar with Radley Balko?
So, the real criminal is the magistrate judge?
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Aresen
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Aresen »

Briefly returning to the original question, I believe I should have added a 'Not soon enough' option.
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Shem
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Shem »

And now it comes out that Manafort notified the feds that the Russia meeting happened. He better hope Mueller becomes uncharacteristically willing to offer deals, because he sure won't be getting a pardon.
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lunchstealer
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by lunchstealer »

Shem wrote:
10 Aug 2017, 14:56
And now it comes out that Manafort notified the feds that the Russia meeting happened. He better hope Mueller becomes uncharacteristically willing to offer deals, because he sure won't be getting a pardon.
Is there a word missing? This doesn't quite parse for me.

If Manafort informed the feds in a timely manner, then that's a bullet out of Mueller's gun, is it not?

Or is it that his informing the feds about this will mean that the Trumpensreich will turn on him, so he needs to get a deal from Mueller so that they don't throw him under the bus?
"Dude she's the Purdue Pharma of the black pill." - JasonL

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thoreau
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by thoreau »

I think the last one.

Meanwhile, Trump keeps going after Mitch McConnell. My guess is that the Senate would happily remove him if they thought they could survive primary elections afterward. And if he keeps doing his utmost to demonstrate that he's unfit for a foreign policy crisis, you never know how low his numbers will go.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Eric the .5b »

Hmm. If I turn out to be right, as the one person who voted for "before the mid-terms", what do I win?

I mean, besides getting the racist, senile New York celebrity out of the White House?
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
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Shem
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Shem »

lunchstealer wrote:
10 Aug 2017, 19:46
Shem wrote:
10 Aug 2017, 14:56
And now it comes out that Manafort notified the feds that the Russia meeting happened. He better hope Mueller becomes uncharacteristically willing to offer deals, because he sure won't be getting a pardon.
Is there a word missing? This doesn't quite parse for me.

If Manafort informed the feds in a timely manner, then that's a bullet out of Mueller's gun, is it not?

Or is it that his informing the feds about this will mean that the Trumpensreich will turn on him, so he needs to get a deal from Mueller so that they don't throw him under the bus?
The charges that Mueller is going after Manafort for don't involve Russian election collusion. They're out to nail him for banking fraud of various flavors. Consider that Manafort tipped them off no later than 7/11 of this year. We know this, because it's when we found out about it, which means that Mueller knew about it at least before that. The fact that they knew about it, though, and that Manafort presumably told them, didn't stop Mueller from no-knock raiding his ass a few weeks later. A no-knock raid is not the actions of a man who is trying to encourage you to turn on your old boss. It's the actions of someone who is out to nail your ass to a wall. Which means that, if tipping off Mueller about the meeting was an attempt to encourage Mueller to make a deal, it failed. And it has now made it clear to his former boss that Manafort is willing to fold for the right incentive. Meaning, unless Manafort told the feds when the meeting happened (which is not characteristic for a man who has made his fortune working for oligarchs who value secrecy more than their mothers) it was an attempt to buy a deal that proved a grave miscalculation.
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Aresen »

Eric the .5b wrote:
10 Aug 2017, 19:49
Hmm. If I turn out to be right, as the one person who voted for "before the mid-terms", what do I win?

I mean, besides getting the racist, senile New York celebrity out of the White House?
Bragging rights at the next Gryllicon.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

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Taktix®
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Taktix® »

Aresen wrote:
Eric the .5b wrote:
10 Aug 2017, 19:49
Hmm. If I turn out to be right, as the one person who voted for "before the mid-terms", what do I win?

I mean, besides getting the racist, senile New York celebrity out of the White House?
Bragging rights at the next Gryllicon.
And perhaps the assurance that the next Gryllicon won't take place in the camps...
"Guilty as charged. Go ahead and ban me from the mall." - Ellie

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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Fin Fang Foom »

I think he will resign before anything gets too advanced (i.e. impeachment will not be imminent).

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Aresen
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Aresen »

Fin Fang Foom wrote:
10 Aug 2017, 23:29
I think he will resign before anything gets too advanced (i.e. impeachment will not be imminent).
I doubt he'll resign before the sixty-sixth vote to convict in the Senate. And then he (and the Trumpers) will spend the next decade complaining about the Beltway Conspiracy Against America© and how he really won.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Every prosecutor knows a judge who, if not exactly a rubber stamp, isn't a hard sell for a warrant, either. De jure, obtaining approval by a judge of competent authority for a warrant and conducting the search in accordance with the bounds of that warrant constitutes due process; de facto, that often doesn't mean all that much but it's better than nothing.

Parties of interest know who they are and destruction of evidence is itself felonious, so I don't want to say they rarely destroy evidence, especially once they've sought advice of counsel, but it's less common than you might guess. Of course, as with every crime, destruction of evidence as obstruction of justice has elements that must be proved beyond a reasonable doubt to a jury, too, but a prosecutor can still make the average person of interest's life a living hell in the meanwhile.

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Eric the .5b
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Eric the .5b »

Taktix® wrote:
10 Aug 2017, 22:53
Aresen wrote:
Eric the .5b wrote:
10 Aug 2017, 19:49
Hmm. If I turn out to be right, as the one person who voted for "before the mid-terms", what do I win?

I mean, besides getting the racist, senile New York celebrity out of the White House?
Bragging rights at the next Gryllicon.
And perhaps the assurance that the next Gryllicon won't take place in the camps...
Meh. Camp-Con always looms in the future, even if many people, including myself, misidentified an ignorant old fuck as a fascist.

(Ignorant old fucks sound fascist, what can I say?)
Last edited by Eric the .5b on 11 Aug 2017, 12:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Eric the .5b
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Eric the .5b »

Fin Fang Foom wrote:
10 Aug 2017, 23:29
I think he will resign before anything gets too advanced (i.e. impeachment will not be imminent).
I'd put dropping dead or being medically incapacitated ahead of that in probability. He's a dumb, stubborn fuck.
"Better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer."
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Shem
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Shem »

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:02
Every prosecutor knows a judge who, if not exactly a rubber stamp, isn't a hard sell for a warrant, either. De jure, obtaining approval by a judge of competent authority for a warrant and conducting the search in accordance with the bounds of that warrant constitutes due process; de facto, that often doesn't mean all that much but it's better than nothing.
Are such judges any more stringent when it comes to stuff like no-knock raids? Asking for a friend.
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Aresen »

Shem wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:29
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:02
Every prosecutor knows a judge who, if not exactly a rubber stamp, isn't a hard sell for a warrant, either. De jure, obtaining approval by a judge of competent authority for a warrant and conducting the search in accordance with the bounds of that warrant constitutes due process; de facto, that often doesn't mean all that much but it's better than nothing.
Are such judges any more stringent when it comes to stuff like no-knock raids? Asking for a friend.
In Shemocracy, you don't need no friggin' warrant.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

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Shem
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Shem »

Aresen wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:48
Shem wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:29
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:02
Every prosecutor knows a judge who, if not exactly a rubber stamp, isn't a hard sell for a warrant, either. De jure, obtaining approval by a judge of competent authority for a warrant and conducting the search in accordance with the bounds of that warrant constitutes due process; de facto, that often doesn't mean all that much but it's better than nothing.
Are such judges any more stringent when it comes to stuff like no-knock raids? Asking for a friend.
In Shemocracy, you don't need no friggin' warrant.
We still have warrants, they just consist of blasting the song "Cherry Pie" nonstop while the search is ongoing. We believe in making our hatred clear thorough casual acts of malevolence.
"VOTE SHEMOCRACY! You will only have to do it once!" -Loyalty Officer Aresen

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Shem wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:29
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:02
Every prosecutor knows a judge who, if not exactly a rubber stamp, isn't a hard sell for a warrant, either. De jure, obtaining approval by a judge of competent authority for a warrant and conducting the search in accordance with the bounds of that warrant constitutes due process; de facto, that often doesn't mean all that much but it's better than nothing.
Are such judges any more stringent when it comes to stuff like no-knock raids? Asking for a friend.
I don't know, but I assume both that the guidelines are more stringent and that there are judges who are easily persuaded that they've been met. Appeals courts do quash warrants occasionally. I have no idea what the applicable law is even on a federal, let alone a state level, but there is a presumption of regularity that essentially gives every benefit of the doubt to the issuing judge or magistrate, so successful appeals are few and far between.

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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Sandy »

Shem wrote:
Aresen wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:48
Shem wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:29
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:02
Every prosecutor knows a judge who, if not exactly a rubber stamp, isn't a hard sell for a warrant, either. De jure, obtaining approval by a judge of competent authority for a warrant and conducting the search in accordance with the bounds of that warrant constitutes due process; de facto, that often doesn't mean all that much but it's better than nothing.
Are such judges any more stringent when it comes to stuff like no-knock raids? Asking for a friend.
In Shemocracy, you don't need no friggin' warrant.
We still have warrants, they just consist of blasting the song "Cherry Pie" nonstop while the search is ongoing. We believe in making our hatred clear thorough casual acts of malevolence.
Literally. Worse. Than. Hitler.
Hindu is the cricket of religions. You can observe it for years, you can have enthusiasts try to explain it to you, and it's still baffling. - Warren

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Re: When do you think Trumpeachment will happen?

Post by Warren »

Sandy wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 23:42
Shem wrote:
Aresen wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:48
Shem wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:29
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
11 Aug 2017, 12:02
Every prosecutor knows a judge who, if not exactly a rubber stamp, isn't a hard sell for a warrant, either. De jure, obtaining approval by a judge of competent authority for a warrant and conducting the search in accordance with the bounds of that warrant constitutes due process; de facto, that often doesn't mean all that much but it's better than nothing.
Are such judges any more stringent when it comes to stuff like no-knock raids? Asking for a friend.
In Shemocracy, you don't need no friggin' warrant.
We still have warrants, they just consist of blasting the song "Cherry Pie" nonstop while the search is ongoing. We believe in making our hatred clear thorough casual acts of malevolence.
Literally. Worse. Than. Hitler.
Shame on all of you what speak other than reverently of the incomparable Bobbie Jean Brown
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