Orange is the new President

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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

More seriously, it seems that the rules are always so complicated that it's not clear that the courts can do anything, or that the Senate should convict, or that a Congressional refusal to fund something should matter. But the rules are never so complicated that the President can't do something.

In short, it seems like the rules are always too complicated for anyone to check the executive, but never too complicated for the executive to do something.

This is probably just my ignorance of and disdain for the rule of law.
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Mo
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Mo »

thoreau wrote: 31 Jan 2020, 12:53 More seriously, it seems that the rules are always so complicated that it's not clear that the courts can do anything, or that the Senate should convict, or that a Congressional refusal to fund something should matter. But the rules are never so complicated that the President can't do something.

In short, it seems like the rules are always too complicated for anyone to check the executive, but never too complicated for the executive to do something.

This is probably just my ignorance of and disdain for the rule of law.
As the article said the same court didn’t think the rules were too complicated for a Republican House and Democratic President.
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Hugh Akston
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Re: Orange is the new President

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If I didn't absolutely know better I would be tempted to think that the rule of law is just the rule of men with a thin veneer of paperwork over it.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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thoreau wrote: 31 Jan 2020, 09:44 Is there anything, anything at all, that can be improved about the system as it currently exists? Or do we live in the best of all possible status quos?
My take on this is there are dramatically bad versions of institutions that are worse, but within some pretty wide margin in modern democracies the problem isn't structural or institutional its the essential problem voters wanting terrible things combined with an absurd pretense that voting systems actually represent in any way the aggregation of 300,000,000 real sets of desires. The implication of the former is that dumb awful people vote for dumb awful things and there isn't an override that can stick in the face of sufficient magnitudes of dumb pulling in the same direction. The implication of the latter is that everyone at all points always feels like they never get what they want because for some reason voting didn't actually ensure those candidates are any good.

I think you can try to tweak things but I don't think people focused on procedure and institutions are looking at the right thing. Why does the impeachment not move forward? Lot of politicians are tied to the fate of the president. Why is that? Because he's popular with lots of people. The essential problem is people want bad things.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Yep.
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Hugh Akston
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Hugh Akston »

Yup
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Mo wrote: 31 Jan 2020, 12:58
thoreau wrote: 31 Jan 2020, 12:53 More seriously, it seems that the rules are always so complicated that it's not clear that the courts can do anything, or that the Senate should convict, or that a Congressional refusal to fund something should matter. But the rules are never so complicated that the President can't do something.

In short, it seems like the rules are always too complicated for anyone to check the executive, but never too complicated for the executive to do something.

This is probably just my ignorance of and disdain for the rule of law.
As the article said the same court didn’t think the rules were too complicated for a Republican House and Democratic President.
I don't know what you're talking about. Everything I've ever heard here indicates that (1) things are exactly the same with both parties and (2) there's simply no way that anybody could confidently state that the rules allow the courts of Congress to check the executive.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

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If Trump is not convicted, the precedent will be set that, per Dershowitz, soliciting favors to help his re-election is not a quid pro quo. Yes, yes, I'm aware that no court will have ruled on that, but (1) in the Don's mind it won't matter and (2) nobody will say no to the Don.

We're heading into a system where the President is, for 4-8 years (for now, more later) a monarch. During those 4-8 years no actions of the Courts or Congress can stop him from doing what he wants. His own personal career interests are interchangeable with the interests of the state. That is a good definition of monarchy. There's a single day every 4 years on which the people get a say, but other than that the President is a monarch.

And everyone who constantly says that the rules are too complicated, or that removing him is a bad idea, is just reinforcing Caesarism.

But I only say this because I want to replace the rule of law with my personal dictatorial whim. Or something.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen »

The Rs will vote to acquit within the next 72 hours and will allow Trump to get away with blocking members of the administration giving testimony to Congress.

This will bite them during the time that some of them are still in office.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by lunchstealer »

thoreau wrote: 31 Jan 2020, 09:44 Is there anything, anything at all, that can be improved about the system as it currently exists? Or do we live in the best of all possible status quos?
Not having plurality-take-all electors from each state. Keep the EC so Wyoming can defend the heartland against teh ebil coastals, but proportionally allocate electoral votes among candidates.

This ought to apply to primaries as well. Trump got 100% of South Carolina delegates with barely 30% of the GOP primary vote. More than two thirds of South Carolina republicans wanted someone other than Trump, but because there were so many candidates, the opposition was spread thin.

I'd also ditch the no-majority-goes-to-the-House rule in favor of you-put-all-the-electors-in-a-barracks-and-let-them-horse-trade-until-we-get-a-winner or something like that.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Nothing is inconsistent that is expedient.
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JasonL
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by JasonL »

thoreau wrote: 31 Jan 2020, 14:53 If Trump is not convicted, the precedent will be set that, per Dershowitz, soliciting favors to help his re-election is not a quid pro quo. Yes, yes, I'm aware that no court will have ruled on that, but (1) in the Don's mind it won't matter and (2) nobody will say no to the Don.

We're heading into a system where the President is, for 4-8 years (for now, more later) a monarch. During those 4-8 years no actions of the Courts or Congress can stop him from doing what he wants. His own personal career interests are interchangeable with the interests of the state. That is a good definition of monarchy. There's a single day every 4 years on which the people get a say, but other than that the President is a monarch.

And everyone who constantly says that the rules are too complicated, or that removing him is a bad idea, is just reinforcing Caesarism.

But I only say this because I want to replace the rule of law with my personal dictatorial whim. Or something.
I don't know that anyone here is saying that. I would pull the lever to remove him based on Ukraine. I would not have based on Russia because there was nothing worth talking about in Russia. If you wanted to add emoluments to Ukraine, I'd pull the lever to impeach and remove over that too. As far as the presidency and what constrains it, the real answer to that is how many votes the president in question commands. If he has limited support from his own party of if his party is not in a position in congress to do much, he's not much of a caesar. My take is that the institutional constraints have always by design been very weak if congress feels it's in their interest to back the president and there are enough of those to matter. By design, the core constraint is the election. The impeachment process is political.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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thoreau, in the future could you kindly link to the posts making the arguments you're responding to? You continue to suffer as the lone voice of reason among the chaotic evil malefactors at grylliade.org despite having it pointed out repeatedly that no one ever said those things. If we could see what you're talking about it would really help to reestablish your credibility with people who mistakenly believe that you're lost in paranoid delusions.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Hugh Akston wrote: 31 Jan 2020, 15:34 If we could see what you're talking about it would really help to reestablish your credibility with people who mistakenly believe that you're lost in paranoid delusions.
Like his paranoid delusion that between the EC and voter suppression, Trump's low approval rating might not preclude his re-election?

Sorry, my bad; that was my paranoid delusion.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen »

Jennifer wrote: 01 Feb 2020, 13:22
Hugh Akston wrote: 31 Jan 2020, 15:34 If we could see what you're talking about it would really help to reestablish your credibility with people who mistakenly believe that you're lost in paranoid delusions.
Like his paranoid delusion that between the EC and voter suppression, Trump's low approval rating might not preclude his re-election?
This is my main fear for Nov 3, 2020. I am going to be watching Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin very closely that night.

My main hope is that the Blues are going to be fired up and not sit on their hands the way they did in 2016.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Quick vote - voter suppression is material or immaterial to election outcomes in the US over the past say 8 terms? Not "is it bad" but "does it matter to outcomes?"

I'm a nope on that.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Almost undoubtedly flipped Florida in 2000 which flipped the presidential election which almost undoubtedly caused the Iraq War.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen »

JasonL wrote: 01 Feb 2020, 19:27 Quick vote - voter suppression is material or immaterial to election outcomes in the US over the past say 8 terms? Not "is it bad" but "does it matter to outcomes?"

I'm a nope on that.
I think it is likely that it has made a difference in some congressional districts and state legislatures.

For the presidential vote I'd have to see numbers i.e.:

#of voters disqualified by demographic
X
% likelihood that voters in the affected demographic would vote
X
% likelihood that voters in each demographic would vote for each party
= difference the result would make in terms of vote for each candidate in a given state

Then compare that to the winning margin for the candidate who won the state.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Hugh Akston »

lunchstealer wrote: 01 Feb 2020, 19:41 Almost undoubtedly flipped Florida in 2000 which flipped the presidential election which almost undoubtedly caused the Iraq War.
I wish I could experience that level of confidence in a counterfactual involving a whopper of a wildcard.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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JasonL wrote: 01 Feb 2020, 19:27 Quick vote - voter suppression is material or immaterial to election outcomes in the US over the past say 8 terms? Not "is it bad" but "does it matter to outcomes?"

I'm a nope on that.
I'm, Voter suppression hasn't been a real thing since motor-voter.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Georgia 2018, and probably any other election that Brian Kemp played a role in.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Also, even if the effects aren't always large, the GOP clearly believes that trying to use election laws to reduce minority participation is a strategy worth pursuing. That takes us nowhere good if one of the two governing parties approaches things that way.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Gosh, Voter Suppression hasn't been that much of a problem... since about a decade after the Voting Rights Act was passed. And it wasn't even talked about that much in that time. Until this last half-decade, since Shelby County vs Holder, which kind of signaled that the SCOTUS wasn't exactly interested in worrying about it. And since then, efforts toward suppression have been rising.

Saying that voter suppression isn't a thing anymore is pretty much exactly what Shelby said, and since that came down, now voter suppression's a thing. Maybe the law that was preventing it actually had a point and was doing its job.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Eric the .5b »

Highway wrote: 01 Feb 2020, 23:05Maybe the law that was preventing it actually had a point and was doing its job.
But that would mean Team Blue had been right about something at some point. We can't have that.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jennifer »

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