Orange is the new President

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Mo
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Mo »

Kolohe wrote: 19 Jan 2020, 11:56
Shem wrote: 17 Jan 2020, 21:55
Mo wrote: 17 Jan 2020, 14:17 Mattis’ civilian and post-administration behavior seems to show that Trump’s assessment was accurate.
Which particular one?
I wouldn't go as far as to call Mattis 'a dope', but it increasely clear that he was singularly unsuited for being Defense Secretary and his reputation is both overinflated and provided topcover for Trump's recklessness - as well as Trump's inability to get things done even on his own terms (e.g. pulling US troops out of the various places they are deployed around the world)

Finally reading the book exerpt in the dead tree WaPo, it certainly is more underwhelming than I thought it would be when it got posted to the interwebz on Thursday or Friday.
Mattis’ whole, “Aw shucks, I’m a General, I’m not allowed to criticize the commander in chief,” act should be taken by Congress as a reason to no longer provide exemptions for Cabinet officials from the military.
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lunchstealer
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by lunchstealer »

Kolohe wrote: 19 Jan 2020, 12:08 I mean, the entire political-military establishment has not covered itself with glory over the last 20 years. It has continually exaggerated successes and lied about failures to both the public, and worst to itself. Trump hasn't changed a thing about that - and in many ways, has made it worse - but that doesn't mean the criticism isn't real, and eventually, there's going to be a reckoning.
You had me until the last 8 words. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, empirically it's pretty easy to apply Homer's no-comeuppance dance to the military industrial complex and associated statecraft-of-power-projection.
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Jennifer
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jennifer »

Mo wrote: 18 Jan 2020, 12:29 I look forward to the, “You can’t take down Confederate monuments, that’s rewriting history,” getting wind of this and showing the appropriate outrage.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/na ... story.html
I saw that from a non-WaPo source; sounds downright Orwellian, in a straightforward descriptive manner.
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Kolohe
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Kolohe »

lunchstealer wrote: 20 Jan 2020, 17:11
Kolohe wrote: 19 Jan 2020, 12:08 I mean, the entire political-military establishment has not covered itself with glory over the last 20 years. It has continually exaggerated successes and lied about failures to both the public, and worst to itself. Trump hasn't changed a thing about that - and in many ways, has made it worse - but that doesn't mean the criticism isn't real, and eventually, there's going to be a reckoning.
You had me until the last 8 words. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, empirically it's pretty easy to apply Homer's no-comeuppance dance to the military industrial complex and associated statecraft-of-power-projection.
It's all fun and games until Xi decides to re-create the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere with the Middle Kingdom this time in the middle.
(or until he just tries to re-take Taiwan)
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Eric the .5b »

Kolohe wrote: 20 Jan 2020, 17:44
lunchstealer wrote: 20 Jan 2020, 17:11
Kolohe wrote: 19 Jan 2020, 12:08 I mean, the entire political-military establishment has not covered itself with glory over the last 20 years. It has continually exaggerated successes and lied about failures to both the public, and worst to itself. Trump hasn't changed a thing about that - and in many ways, has made it worse - but that doesn't mean the criticism isn't real, and eventually, there's going to be a reckoning.
You had me until the last 8 words. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, empirically it's pretty easy to apply Homer's no-comeuppance dance to the military industrial complex and associated statecraft-of-power-projection.
It's all fun and games until Xi decides to re-create the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere with the Middle Kingdom this time in the middle.
(or until he just tries to re-take Taiwan)
It's not like the military establishment being full of shit is uniquely American.
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Kolohe
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Kolohe »

Eric the .5b wrote: 20 Jan 2020, 18:40
Kolohe wrote: 20 Jan 2020, 17:44
lunchstealer wrote: 20 Jan 2020, 17:11
Kolohe wrote: 19 Jan 2020, 12:08 I mean, the entire political-military establishment has not covered itself with glory over the last 20 years. It has continually exaggerated successes and lied about failures to both the public, and worst to itself. Trump hasn't changed a thing about that - and in many ways, has made it worse - but that doesn't mean the criticism isn't real, and eventually, there's going to be a reckoning.
You had me until the last 8 words. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, empirically it's pretty easy to apply Homer's no-comeuppance dance to the military industrial complex and associated statecraft-of-power-projection.
It's all fun and games until Xi decides to re-create the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere with the Middle Kingdom this time in the middle.
(or until he just tries to re-take Taiwan)
It's not like the military establishment being full of shit is uniquely American.
Oh, absolutely, and the horror of war gets to be the worst when everyone is full of shit. (I.e. Double Dubya One)
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex
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Ellie
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Ellie »

Real depressing (to me) story on Minnesota Public Radio this morning interviewing Iowa farmers who voted for Trump in 2016. They're pretty much all still gung-ho for him because of his trade bullshit.

"I see what the guy is doing. He’s a president with a backbone. He’s standing up to people. We need more of that. We needed to do something about the unfair trade practices with China."

"He's trying to straighten out the trade. Most of the stuff he said he’d do, he’s trying to do — whether it’s getting done or not."

I know once you drink the Kool-Aid it can be hard to stop sipping, but he is ACTIVELY FUCKING YOU OVER. Gahhhhh.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen »

I know what you mean, Ellie. I've been watching Trump's approval ratings on 538 for years and the numbers hardly budge. (In fact, I think they're not moving at all and the tiny fluctuations are statistical noise in the data.)
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

Aresen wrote: 29 Jan 2020, 10:38 I know what you mean, Ellie. I've been watching Trump's approval ratings on 538 for years and the numbers hardly budge. (In fact, I think they're not moving at all and the tiny fluctuations are statistical noise in the data.)
I really believe that we never should have let the epsilons vote.
" Columbus wasn’t a profile in courage or brilliance despite the odds, he was a dumb motherfucker that got lucky. Oddly, that makes him the perfect talisman for the Trump era."
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Aresen
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen »

thoreau wrote: 29 Jan 2020, 10:45
Aresen wrote: 29 Jan 2020, 10:38 I know what you mean, Ellie. I've been watching Trump's approval ratings on 538 for years and the numbers hardly budge. (In fact, I think they're not moving at all and the tiny fluctuations are statistical noise in the data.)
I really believe that we never should have let the epsilons vote.
Kennedy and Bush1 were both the alpha's choice.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

#NotAllAlphas
" Columbus wasn’t a profile in courage or brilliance despite the odds, he was a dumb motherfucker that got lucky. Oddly, that makes him the perfect talisman for the Trump era."
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JD
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Aresen wrote: 29 Jan 2020, 10:38 I know what you mean, Ellie. I've been watching Trump's approval ratings on 538 for years and the numbers hardly budge. (In fact, I think they're not moving at all and the tiny fluctuations are statistical noise in the data.)
The only thing that gives me hope is that he's spent pretty much his entire term underwater on net approval rating. Nobody else has done that.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by lunchstealer »

thoreau wrote: 29 Jan 2020, 10:51#NotAllAlphas
#YesAllSigmas
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Jennifer
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jennifer »

JD wrote: 29 Jan 2020, 11:34
Aresen wrote: 29 Jan 2020, 10:38 I know what you mean, Ellie. I've been watching Trump's approval ratings on 538 for years and the numbers hardly budge. (In fact, I think they're not moving at all and the tiny fluctuations are statistical noise in the data.)
The only thing that gives me hope is that he's spent pretty much his entire term underwater on net approval rating. Nobody else has done that.
Between the electoral college's giving greater weight to voters in the sparse-population states, and the GOP's voter suppression efforts, it may not matter. Of the five presidential elections we've had this millennium so far, TWO were won by the guy who lost the popular vote.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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The really crazy thing is it wasn’t revealed to the other party until after it was all over that you win by electoral votes! This right wing voter suppression and secret rules business is really out of hand.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

JasonL wrote: 30 Jan 2020, 13:40 The really crazy thing is it wasn’t revealed to the other party until after it was all over that you win by electoral votes! This right wing voter suppression and secret rules business is really out of hand.
What she said is that Trump's low overall approval rating might noatter. You are saying that under the rules a low overall approval rating doesn't necessarily matter.

Have you seen a neurologist for the jerking motion of your knee?
" Columbus wasn’t a profile in courage or brilliance despite the odds, he was a dumb motherfucker that got lucky. Oddly, that makes him the perfect talisman for the Trump era."
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Re: Orange is the new President

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JasonL wrote: 30 Jan 2020, 13:40 The really crazy thing is it wasn’t revealed to the other party until after it was all over that you win by electoral votes! This right wing voter suppression and secret rules business is really out of hand.
Which parts of my comment make you believe I either don't know how the electoral college works, or think it is some secret right-wing plot? (I'll freely admit I blame the right wing for GOP-led voter-suppression efforts, though.)

I guess you intended to make some non-sardonic point with your remark -- could you be so kind as to spell out precisely what that point is?
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Jennifer wrote: 30 Jan 2020, 14:37
JasonL wrote: 30 Jan 2020, 13:40 The really crazy thing is it wasn’t revealed to the other party until after it was all over that you win by electoral votes! This right wing voter suppression and secret rules business is really out of hand.
Which parts of my comment make you believe I either don't know how the electoral college works, or think it is some secret right-wing plot? (I'll freely admit I blame the right wing for GOP-led voter-suppression efforts, though.)

I guess you intended to make some non-sardonic point with your remark -- could you be so kind as to spell out precisely what that point is?
The point: Team Blue (and their partisans) keeps whining about the unfairness of the Electoral College despite the fact that it has been the name of the game for centuries. So either keep losing and keep whining or change your strategy to appeal to the unwashed flyover deplorables.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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More or less yes. The idea being conveyed as I read it was something like there new considerations for the ineffectiveness of net approval as a measure of electability - voter suppression and the EC. Treating the EC like some new variable drives me insane. Probably a knee jerk also on those grounds yes.
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Jennifer
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jennifer »

Hugh Akston wrote: 30 Jan 2020, 14:44
Jennifer wrote: 30 Jan 2020, 14:37
JasonL wrote: 30 Jan 2020, 13:40 The really crazy thing is it wasn’t revealed to the other party until after it was all over that you win by electoral votes! This right wing voter suppression and secret rules business is really out of hand.
Which parts of my comment make you believe I either don't know how the electoral college works, or think it is some secret right-wing plot? (I'll freely admit I blame the right wing for GOP-led voter-suppression efforts, though.)

I guess you intended to make some non-sardonic point with your remark -- could you be so kind as to spell out precisely what that point is?
The point: Team Blue (and their partisans) keeps whining about the unfairness of the Electoral College despite the fact that it has been the name of the game for centuries. So either keep losing and keep whining or change your strategy to appeal to the unwashed flyover deplorables.
Since you're presumably speaking on Jason's behalf, presumably I should also ask you, rather than him, how that is relevant in the specific context of my suggesting that Trump's low approval ratings might not preclude his being re-elected. (I'm also mildly curious to know why Jason felt compelled to make his point in such a thoroughly snide manner--not sure whether you or he are best qualified to answer that.)
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Hugh Akston »

The context is that you specifically invoked the Electoral College when saying that low approval ratings might not preclude Trump's reelection. You're not wrong that poll numbers and popular majorities don't win the White House, and Jason's not wrong that complaining about that fact betrays a poor understanding of American electoral politics.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

Hugh,

Jennifer's post was a response to this:
JD wrote: 29 Jan 2020, 11:34The only thing that gives me hope is that he's spent pretty much his entire term underwater on net approval rating. Nobody else has done that.
It is entirely valid to note that JD should not be optimistic in his prediction because the system is deliberately, explicitly decoupled from nationwide polling. There's nothing in there to suggest a poor understanding of the system.

In fact, even complaining that the system works that way would hardly constitute a sign of not understanding the system. If somebody said "The system is designed to do X and I don't like that", I would consider that an indication that they do understand the system. They might not understand the arguments in favor of it, but it also might be the case that they do understand the arguments in favor of it and find them unsatisfactory or insufficient.

I'm going to go out on a limb and, at the risk of speaking for Jennifer, guess that she is aware of the concepts like federalism, critiques of majoritarianism, and related concepts. I mean, she's spent a lot of time hanging out in libertarian discussion forums where such concepts have come up from time to time. I would not leap to lack of familiarity with the system as an explanation for her dissatisfaction with it.
" Columbus wasn’t a profile in courage or brilliance despite the odds, he was a dumb motherfucker that got lucky. Oddly, that makes him the perfect talisman for the Trump era."
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JasonL
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Speaking for myself, the invocation of EC in the context of the above sounded to me like there was some previous time when EC wasn't important but now that it is we have to care about it and net approval doesn't even matter. I don't know if net approval ever had high correspondence with election outcomes, but I can say that to the extent it ever mattered EC was still present at that time.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

Well, 1876 and 1888 both had popular-EC splits. That was an era where the EC and popular vote were apparently not in sync. Then there were no splits until arguably 1960, then none again until 2000 and 2016. So I think it's fair to note that there are times in US history when these things are unheard of, and times when they happen multiple times in a generation.
" Columbus wasn’t a profile in courage or brilliance despite the odds, he was a dumb motherfucker that got lucky. Oddly, that makes him the perfect talisman for the Trump era."
--Mo
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Mo
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Mo »

When Texas goes the slightest bit blue tinted and causes an EC/PV split in favor of the Ds, the EC will be an abomination
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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