Orange is the new President

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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

Sanjay Gupta is trying to get both the Resistance and Mike Pence really, really excited:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/24/health/t ... index.html
" Columbus wasn’t a profile in courage or brilliance despite the odds, he was a dumb motherfucker that got lucky. Oddly, that makes him the perfect talisman for the Trump era."
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Taktix®
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Taktix® »

I work in Fort Lauderdale, and live about 5 minutes from the site of tomorrow night's Trump show at the BB&T Center (in Sunrise, FL, basically a suburb of Fort Lauderdale).

Anyway, I'm working tonight and it's clear the deplorables are in town. Lots of flag clothes. One guy had a shirt that said "Blue Collar VS. Everyone".

Should be a fun night...
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Highway
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Highway »

Whew, now I'm glad we left on Saturday. Thought it was a pretty nice city.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

" Columbus wasn’t a profile in courage or brilliance despite the odds, he was a dumb motherfucker that got lucky. Oddly, that makes him the perfect talisman for the Trump era."
--Mo
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Aresen
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen »

File under "Things you want to UNsee."

Image
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Warren
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Warren »

Already blotted from my mind.
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nicole
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by nicole »

TW HuffPo but jfc the basic details of this are ridiculous https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-go ... 3e6f7865cf
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Masked Grylliader
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Masked Grylliader »

Remember, remember
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Aresen
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen »

Every day is Bloomsday in the Trump White House.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex
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JasonL
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by JasonL »

This gallup poll makes me think trump might win pretty hard.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most- ... edium=copy

Top mention for Most Important Problem goes to "The Government / Poor Leadership", which you can take as a strong never Trump group, but the poll has immigration way ahead of even healthcare on individual policies, and rich/poor gap barely registers at all. If you look at the things animating donkeys, it is things polled people do not seem particularly concerned about except "not that guy".
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Pham Nuwen »

I think it will be really close. But I think he'll lose.
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Warren
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Warren »

I don't think you can make meaningful predictions yet. At least wait till we know who the Dems are running.
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JD
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by JD »

JasonL wrote: 07 Dec 2019, 10:29 This gallup poll makes me think trump might win pretty hard.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most- ... edium=copy

Top mention for Most Important Problem goes to "The Government / Poor Leadership", which you can take as a strong never Trump group, but the poll has immigration way ahead of even healthcare on individual policies, and rich/poor gap barely registers at all. If you look at the things animating donkeys, it is things polled people do not seem particularly concerned about except "not that guy".
I thought there was some sort of consensus that the best predictor of who was going to win was how people felt about the economy, and right now it looks like people do not seem to be too troubled about the economy, which would suggest Trump will win. But I also think it's too early to call.
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Jadagul
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jadagul »

Trump's fundamentals are good, but he wildly underperforms his fundamentals (in e.g. his approval rating).

Probably if we had a Republican president who was vaguely normal and the same economy, he'd be cruising to reelection with like a 55% approval rating.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Warren »

JD wrote: 07 Dec 2019, 14:51
JasonL wrote: 07 Dec 2019, 10:29 This gallup poll makes me think trump might win pretty hard.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most- ... edium=copy

Top mention for Most Important Problem goes to "The Government / Poor Leadership", which you can take as a strong never Trump group, but the poll has immigration way ahead of even healthcare on individual policies, and rich/poor gap barely registers at all. If you look at the things animating donkeys, it is things polled people do not seem particularly concerned about except "not that guy".
I thought there was some sort of consensus that the best predictor of who was going to win was how people felt about the economy, and right now it looks like people do not seem to be too troubled about the economy, which would suggest Trump will win. But I also think it's too early to call.
I'm pretty sure the Dems are engineering an October Surprise economic collapse.


ha ha jk...
or am I?
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Aresen
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen »

I think the Sports Bar has overwhelmed everything else by now, which is why I think Trump will lose.

Those who were for him in 2016 are (mostly) going to support him again, but I don't think he's picked up anything in the mid-field.

The Blues and those who voted against him in 2016 hate him with a passion and will turn out heavily, including a lot who sat on their hands for Clinton. I think the Blue turnout will swamp him. They may also pick up the Libertarians and Greens who are too disgusted with Trump to take the risk of voting for a third party.
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Mo
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Mo »

JasonL wrote:This gallup poll makes me think trump might win pretty hard.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most- ... edium=copy

Top mention for Most Important Problem goes to "The Government / Poor Leadership", which you can take as a strong never Trump group, but the poll has immigration way ahead of even healthcare on individual policies, and rich/poor gap barely registers at all. If you look at the things animating donkeys, it is things polled people do not seem particularly concerned about except "not that guy".
That’s not dispositive. ‘Immigration’ can mean both “Build the wall” and “burn down the family separation centers”.
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Shem
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Shem »

JasonL wrote: 07 Dec 2019, 10:29but the poll has immigration way ahead of even healthcare on individual policies, and rich/poor gap barely registers at all.
Thing about that is, Trump has scrambled this to the point where you can't just assume "immigration" means "they took urr jerbs" anymore. At this point, gotta figure at least 20% of that is "locking children in cages is an atrocity that has to be stopped." Liberal Catholics and Mormons seem especially horrified by it.
Aresen wrote: 07 Dec 2019, 16:06 Those who were for him in 2016 are (mostly) going to support him again, but I don't think he's picked up anything in the mid-field.
People have this habit of acting like because Trump's victory was amazing, it was also therefore a sign of some sort of shift or a mark that he's amazingly popular. But ~100,000 more votes for Clinton across three upper midwestern states with depressed turnout, and he loses. And that was against the most unpopular living Democrat in the country. And since then, as you note, he's done nothing to expand his coalition. And it shows; Jonathan Bel Edwards went from barely winning the historically very conservative Jefferson Parish Louisiana (where Clinton hitting 40% was a surprise) to winning it by double digits in the recent election, even though Trump was campaigning for his opponent. The argument seems to boil down to "history suggests he'll win," even though history also suggested that he'd never make it past the conventions. If someone is suddenly expecting historical inertia to kick back in at this point, I don't know what to say.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

Shem, everything you say makes sense as long as it's Trump vs. Generic Democrat More Popular Than Hillary. But I do worry about some of these potential nominees, once they become Real Actual Democrat Facing Trump.

Warren has all the minuses of a lefty woman, though not the drawbacks of being hated for 24 years before the election.

Biden is getting senile, and while that should be a hard card for Trump to play, there's a long history of Republicans getting a pass for things that do in Democrats.

Bernie is a Vermont socialist, and barely a Democrat, so people whose help he needs might not rally to him.

I feel like the Democrats need to go with somebody who hasn't been in the spotlight as long. Klobuchar or Castro, maybe.

(I refuse to believe that Booty Jig will be nominated, but he's no less qualified than Trump, and a new face. So maybe he could win.)
" Columbus wasn’t a profile in courage or brilliance despite the odds, he was a dumb motherfucker that got lucky. Oddly, that makes him the perfect talisman for the Trump era."
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Aresen
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen »

thoreau wrote: 07 Dec 2019, 17:47 (I refuse to believe that Booty Jig will be nominated, but he's no less qualified than Trump, and a new face. So maybe he could win.)
Buttigieg may be acceptable to most Democrats and the moderate Republicans, but I think the black evangelicals and baptists would let him die. Remember Proposition 8.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

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Shem
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Shem »

Aresen wrote: 07 Dec 2019, 18:07
thoreau wrote: 07 Dec 2019, 17:47 (I refuse to believe that Booty Jig will be nominated, but he's no less qualified than Trump, and a new face. So maybe he could win.)
Buttigieg may be acceptable to most Democrats and the moderate Republicans, but I think the black evangelicals and baptists would let him die. Remember Proposition 8.
That was based on one exit poll that turned out to be wildly out of line with every other poll that was done. Black weekly churchgoers were actually less likely than churchgoers of other races to vote Yes on it. The fact that he's kind of a tone deaf moron on racial matters is a much bigger issue for his support among minorities than his sexuality.

I actually think Booker would be their best option if they wanted to choose on the basis of electability.
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Jadagul
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jadagul »

Klobuchar has a really good electability pitch, too. She's beating neutral in Minnesota by like 15 points or something.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

The best thing about Amy Klobuchar is that Trump would probably never spell her name correctly in a Tweet.
" Columbus wasn’t a profile in courage or brilliance despite the odds, he was a dumb motherfucker that got lucky. Oddly, that makes him the perfect talisman for the Trump era."
--Mo
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JasonL
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by JasonL »

I have no idea what Klobuchar thinks about anything.
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Pham Nuwen
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Pham Nuwen »

JasonL wrote: 08 Dec 2019, 08:13 I have no idea what Klobuchar thinks about anything.
That's what we call electability. You fill in the blanks on your own.
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