Orange is the new President

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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau » 23 Jul 2018, 17:13

To be clear, my question was about why the GOP base won't just accept Pence as the guy to sign tax cuts and appoint conservative judges. I get that as long as the base wants Trump, the GOP office-holders have to back Trump. I really do get the game theory on that. Trust me. I do indeed understand that they care more about getting votes from the base than love from MSNBC.

What I wonder is when the base will get fed up with Trump's shit and decided that Pence can appoint conservative judges at least as well as Trump can. And the conclusion I keep coming to is that every guy who's ever sat on a barstool and said "Man, if I were President, let me tell you, I'd sure let them have it!" is looking at Trump and saying "YEAH!" And the GOP has a distressing number of people whose preferences could be summed up as "Wouldn't it be great to have that guy from the bar in the White House?"
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Eric the .5b
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Eric the .5b » 23 Jul 2018, 18:04

Pham Nuwen wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 15:18
Oscar Gamble joke. I don't think it's a cult or anything. I think those people are just waiting to die. They aren't going to improve themselves or their situations without a lot of work. A lot more work than they would ever do. It's a lot easier to just engage in fantasy. Which they do.
Sorry, wasn't familiar.

But, I don't know; I see this done with children, too. And you get people into that attitude by barraging them with the Jesus, Heaven. Hell, blah-blah-blargity business 24/7, trying to make sure everyone they interact with, including businesses, is Christian, etc.. Anything less, and people still care about the world, and they at least find secular ways to deal with their failures.
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Jadagul
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jadagul » 23 Jul 2018, 18:29

JasonL wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 17:04
Team Shem on the incentives. There is no horizon beyond the next election they’ve already done and said too much to stay in power. All they care about is current electoral liability among their base.
I do like the line by, I think Julian Sanchez, that it sort of puts paid to the story about the overwhelming influence of the Georgetown cocktail party circuit on policy. This is a prime opportunity to rack up cocktail party circuit points. No one is taking it.

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Kolohe
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Kolohe » 23 Jul 2018, 18:45

Mo wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 02:37
Pham Nuwen wrote:
Mo wrote:
22 Jul 2018, 15:08
You be you Alabama.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nat ... 16d051f550
Yeah. That sounds about right. Righteousness, hypocrisy, thinly veiled racism, and delusion. That's about what I remember living down there.
Thinly veiled?
You don't really get the full impact if you're white, and I mean that in all seriousness.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau » 23 Jul 2018, 18:46

Jadagul wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 18:29
I do like the line by, I think Julian Sanchez, that it sort of puts paid to the story about the overwhelming influence of the Georgetown cocktail party circuit on policy. This is a prime opportunity to rack up cocktail party circuit points. No one is taking it.
Maybe you're providing a synopsis of a more thought-out point, but as it stands, this is about politics, not policy, and it really only shows that Republicans care more about their base than the Georgetown cocktail party circuit. If we get beyond the yelling of the Head of State, even a lot of foreign policy (at least the stuff that involves tedious details) would probably be remarkably similar if Republicans dumped Trump in favor of Pence. Dumping Pence would change the higher-level diplomacy, and the risk/stability calculations made by a lot of people in a lot of contexts (not just foreign policy), but most of the policy would be the same.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Kolohe
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Kolohe » 23 Jul 2018, 18:47

Kolohe wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 18:45
Mo wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 02:37
Pham Nuwen wrote:
Mo wrote:
22 Jul 2018, 15:08
You be you Alabama.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nat ... 16d051f550
Yeah. That sounds about right. Righteousness, hypocrisy, thinly veiled racism, and delusion. That's about what I remember living down there.
Thinly veiled?
You don't really get the full impact if you're white, and I mean that in all seriousness.
To clarify, that's the impersonal you. Since the personal you is not white (by some defintions) I'm saying I appreciate your eyebrow raising.
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Jadagul
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jadagul » 23 Jul 2018, 18:52

thoreau wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 18:46
Jadagul wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 18:29
I do like the line by, I think Julian Sanchez, that it sort of puts paid to the story about the overwhelming influence of the Georgetown cocktail party circuit on policy. This is a prime opportunity to rack up cocktail party circuit points. No one is taking it.
Maybe you're providing a synopsis of a more thought-out point, but as it stands, this is about politics, not policy, and it really only shows that Republicans care more about their base than the Georgetown cocktail party circuit. If we get beyond the yelling of the Head of State, even a lot of foreign policy (at least the stuff that involves tedious details) would probably be remarkably similar if Republicans dumped Trump in favor of Pence. Dumping Pence would change the higher-level diplomacy, and the risk/stability calculations made by a lot of people in a lot of contexts (not just foreign policy), but most of the policy would be the same.
Right.

But the narrative is that Republicans get elected and/or get writing gigs, and then they abandon their principles and their base to curry favor on the Georgetown cocktail party circuit.

But if that were an actual thing, we would probably be seeing it now.

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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau » 23 Jul 2018, 19:03

Jadagul wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 18:52
thoreau wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 18:46
Jadagul wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 18:29
I do like the line by, I think Julian Sanchez, that it sort of puts paid to the story about the overwhelming influence of the Georgetown cocktail party circuit on policy. This is a prime opportunity to rack up cocktail party circuit points. No one is taking it.
Maybe you're providing a synopsis of a more thought-out point, but as it stands, this is about politics, not policy, and it really only shows that Republicans care more about their base than the Georgetown cocktail party circuit. If we get beyond the yelling of the Head of State, even a lot of foreign policy (at least the stuff that involves tedious details) would probably be remarkably similar if Republicans dumped Trump in favor of Pence. Dumping Pence would change the higher-level diplomacy, and the risk/stability calculations made by a lot of people in a lot of contexts (not just foreign policy), but most of the policy would be the same.
Right.

But the narrative is that Republicans get elected and/or get writing gigs, and then they abandon their principles and their base to curry favor on the Georgetown cocktail party circuit.

But if that were an actual thing, we would probably be seeing it now.
Fair enough. The Republicans definitely remain faithful to the base, for the most part. The reason they don't dismantle the apparatus of a modern regulatory/welfare state is less because of cocktail parties and more because, well, they can't. And they know that most of their supporters wouldn't like it if they did. So they toss out as much red meat as they can.

But I think some of this loyalty might be a more recent phenomenon. W. had the defection of Jim Jeffords. Trump has faced no such thing. Oh, Lindsey Graham and John McCain and Jeff Flake and a few others talk tough, but what do they do? Yeah, yeah, McCain is on medical leave, but there was an interval where he was in DC but knew he had cancer, and what did he do when he was around and knew that he wouldn't be running for re-election?

My understanding is that starting with Newt the GOP tried hard to make sure that their members spent more time in their home districts and less time in DC, precisely to avoid the temptations of the cocktail party circuit. It may be that the strategy actually worked.

(And it's ironic that the GOP got subverted by an unfriendly foreign government after pursuing a strategy of minimizing the time that their members could spend at parties where embassy staffers might hang out.)
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen » 23 Jul 2018, 19:13

For Trump supporters, agreeing with Trump and supporting him is the single over-riding criterion on which they will judge a GOP candidate. Some of it may be a sense that you have to support the leader, no matter what, but a large part of it is agreement with the Nativist narrative Trump is selling. Whatever the GOP leadership's true opinions, they have to appease that voting bloc, which presently controls the GOP. Congresscritters are political critters first and foremost, that's how they got where they are. They aren't going to change their tune until the GOP base tells them to.

This kind of behavior is not unique to the GOP. In many Blue States, being strongly and publicly anti-abortion would be career-ending for a Democrat.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau » 23 Jul 2018, 19:18

Sure, but the ratio of signaling to substance with Trump is a lot higher. In a Blue state, nobody expects a candidate to publicly say how much they like whatever abortion joke Sarah Silverman is telling. And a legislator can probably make a career without authoring any abortion bills, just as long as they vote the correct way. The GOP expects people to get on board with Trump no matter how crazy he gets at rallies.

If all the base wanted was tax cuts and judges who will overturn Roe, Pence could do it. But fundamentally, I think they want the President to be that guy at the bar who says "Man, if I were President, I'd tell them!"

Trump really is the apotheosis of democracy. The Demos sees him as a Regular Guy only richer and more outrageous. And that's what they insist on having. They could get the same policy, only done better, if they tossed aside Trump for Pence, but they want their guy.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Shem
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Shem » 23 Jul 2018, 20:03

thoreau wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 17:13
What I wonder is when the base will get fed up with Trump's shit and decided that Pence can appoint conservative judges at least as well as Trump can.
They won't. If the base gave a rat's ass about winning policy fights quickly and cleanly, Trump would never have come to power. Just like Nixon's base never got fed up with him.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen » 23 Jul 2018, 21:02

After the Helsinki debacle, I wondered if it would have any effect on his approval on the Red side:
Aresen wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 17:08
I fear you may be right, Highway and lunchstealer. And that is depressing.

I am going to be watching 538 closely for the next couple of days for any sign of a dip in his approval.
Apparently not.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

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Jadagul
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jadagul » 24 Jul 2018, 02:53

Aresen wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 21:02
After the Helsinki debacle, I wondered if it would have any effect on his approval on the Red side:
Aresen wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 17:08
I fear you may be right, Highway and lunchstealer. And that is depressing.

I am going to be watching 538 closely for the next couple of days for any sign of a dip in his approval.
Apparently not.
They said today that they don't really have any gold-standard polls that took place entirely after the summit. (Or maybe there was one. It wasn't clear).

But it's not entirely clear that the fallout would be registering clearly yet if it exists.

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by fyodor » 24 Jul 2018, 16:54

thoreau wrote:
23 Jul 2018, 19:18
If all the base wanted was tax cuts and judges who will overturn Roe, Pence could do it. But fundamentally, I think they want the President to be that guy at the bar who says "Man, if I were President, I'd tell them!"
Agree, and you put it well.

But I think you're also missing the sense of disgrace in the case of impeachment. Especially of someone for whom cognitive dissonance has created a multitude of layers forcing supporters into the corner of thinking he must be right, he must be great, all his enemies are wrong and weak.
Your optimism just confuses and enrages me. - Timothy

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau » 24 Jul 2018, 17:48

"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
--Shem

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jennifer » 24 Jul 2018, 18:03

Thank you for your kind invitation, but I have to wash my hair that night.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen » 24 Jul 2018, 19:00

If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Most people don't realize Stephen King downplayed the horror that is Maine. - Jennifer

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen » 24 Jul 2018, 19:17

If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Most people don't realize Stephen King downplayed the horror that is Maine. - Jennifer

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by lunchstealer » 24 Jul 2018, 19:41

I would but I have a dentist appointment that month.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau » 24 Jul 2018, 19:57

Oh fuck, what if Trump starts trying PUA tactics on Russia?

We may need to invoke the 25th amendment.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by lunchstealer » 24 Jul 2018, 20:53

thoreau wrote:
24 Jul 2018, 19:57
Oh fuck, what if Trump starts trying PUA tactics on Russia?

We may need to invoke the 25th amendment.
Or the 2nd.

NOT SERIOUS, NSA/FBI/CIA/DHS/ETC* AND ALSO THAT DOESN'T EVEN MEAN WHAT YOU THINK IT MEANS AND IF IT DID IT WOULDN'T BE SERIOUS BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT.

*ETA: /FSB/GRU...
"The constitution is more of a BDSM agreement with a safe word." - Sandy

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen » 24 Jul 2018, 21:03

I think we lost out when we gave up on the 'No Stupids' rule in grade 4.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Most people don't realize Stephen King downplayed the horror that is Maine. - Jennifer

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Mo » 25 Jul 2018, 03:54

In the Cohen tape, Trump correctly surmises who the real whores are. He starts off by asking which pastors he can use to cover for him on the issue.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Dangerman » 25 Jul 2018, 10:14

Mo wrote:
26 Jun 2018, 14:17
Refusing to serve someone you despise is one of the joys of being the owner of a business. If I owned my own business, I would equally like to refuse business to Richard Spencer and the guy who bullied me when I was growing up.

I doubt that you would extend the joy of refusal (I bet 'joy of refusal' is a kickass word in Hauptdeutsch) along certain other lines right? Like for Jews or Catholics?

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Dangerman » 25 Jul 2018, 10:55

Re: Russia

"Russia", "Russian", and "a Russian" are different things. I think a lot of the hysteria has to do with not separating things done by people who might speak Russian, or live in Eastern Europe, with Official Acts Of Russia.

It's like thinking that 4chan is a organ of the US Intelligence Community.

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