Orange is the new President

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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau » 15 Jul 2018, 13:07

Eric the .5b wrote:
15 Jul 2018, 01:14
thoreau wrote:
14 Jul 2018, 14:21
I think the problem is that people are a bit too enamored of an idea akin to the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.
Bluntly, I'm looking back through the last several pages, and I'm lost as to what claim you're trying to advance and what position you actually think you're arguing against.
I claim that Trump almost certainly knew the following:
1) That people inside his campaign had ties to the Russian government (e.g. Manafort) or were being cultivated by the Russian government (e.g. everyone who's been caught lying about their contacts with the Russian government).
2) That the Russian government was digging for information to help his campaign (e.g. Natalia Veselnitskaya offered dirt on Clinton and her circle, people close to Trump displayed advance knowledge of emails being leaked in October) and that some of this involved illegal hacking.
3) That people in his campaign were trying to coordinate activity with the Russian government (e.g. Donnie Jr., Jared Kushner, and Manafort sitting down with Veselnitskaya).

The position I'm arguing against: That it's absurd to think Trump knew any of this.

As to whether any of this matters: Again, he's now the guy with ultimate responsibility for the security apparatus. If he were not the elected head of government he would, at a bare minimum, be ineligible for a security clearance because of how many people in his circle are tied to the Russian government. I'll demur on whether any of his actions would constitute criminal offenses, but they certainly rise to impeachable offenses from my recollection of the Founders' concerns in the Federalist Papers. They were quite concerned about the US government being compromised by foreign powers, and Trump's ties to Russia help explain why he'd spill secrets to Sergei Lavrov and brag about firing Comey to shut down the inquiry.

Look at who Russia used to deliver a policy proposal to Trump last year: Felix Sater and Michael Cohen

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/19/us/p ... ussia.html

Sater and Cohen are both tied to dirty Russian businessmen, and they've both been involved in shady business with Trump. When a foreign government decides to send a message via two men who know secrets that could hurt you, the messengers are part of the message.

I mean, suppose that a politician just HAPPENED to be a Sicilian-American businessman with a thuggish personality, a circle of associates balls-deep in criminal activity, and then two dirty business associates of his were used to deliver a policy proposal that would be favorable to the interests of a foreign government that his criminal associates had done business with. Can anyone tell me that wouldn't be grounds for impeachment? Would anyone look at this and say "Now, now, he's clearly just a narcissist with no clue, there's NO WAY he's compromised!"?
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Jadagul
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jadagul » 15 Jul 2018, 14:54

Painboy wrote:
15 Jul 2018, 12:47
Mo wrote:
14 Jul 2018, 18:49
Painboy wrote:
thoreau wrote:
14 Jul 2018, 15:11
Reread this.
thoreau wrote:A million presumptions? Maybe one or two. But we know that his campaign manager was working with Kremlin allies in Ukraine, and that his Ukraine office manager is tied to Russia intelligence. We know that his son was eager to get aid from Russia. We know that Russia reached out to his sons through business associates with Russian ties. We know about Felix Sater's ties to Russian mobsters. We know that lots of people around Trump lied about their contacts with Russia, including people who got jobs needing security clearances. We know that Roger Stone was in contact with people involved in the Podesta email hack.

We know all this and more.

At this point, you need a whole lot of presumptions to assume that Trump was never aware of any of this, that the guy who now has ultimate responsibility for the national security apparatus was completely unaware of Russian activity in his camp, completely unaware that the team from which he chose people for national security posts was stacked with people who had something to hide concerning Russia.
You're just playing connect the dots and the image that is coming out of it is one you're already biased to. Even if Trump knew about every move made it still doesn't prove that anything happened other than some shady meetings. Give me a witness or accomplice who flips and we have something. That shouldn't be that hard to find if something did in fact happen. It's not like Trump inspires a whole lot of loyalty. How many allies has he thrown under the bus in the last several years? How many of them have immediately started talking shit about him?

Something in this case should have broke by now if there was any real proof of significant wrongdoing. Especially so if you think Trump is so stupid as to order a treasonous act in public. He can't be both a conspiratorial mastermind and a boob who publicly admits to his own conspiracies.
None of us know what Mueller has or doesn’t have. Also, based on what evidence or prior example. should this already been broken by now. Ken White has said that as far as federal prosecutions go, this one has moved really quickly. As someone who has sat on both sides of a federal investigation and has been pretty fairminded about the law, I trust that judgement.
While I guess there's an outside possibility Mueller has been able to keep a lid on things, generally speaking the government leaks like a sieve. Especially if the information is of the "game changing" type that could unseat a president. Also there have been signals by Mueller that the investigation is winding down. That doesn't sound like someone about to wrap up an investigation into a wide conspiracy resulting in a whole bunch of arrests.
This simply isn't true.

Mueller's investigation has been pretty much 100% leak-free. And the claims that it's "winding down" are all advanced by Trump's legal team.

That doesn't mean Mueller is about to arrest a whole bunch of people. On the other hand, he did just issue another dozen-ish indictments.

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Mo » 15 Jul 2018, 16:47

What Jadagul said. Papadopolis had been indicted and cooperated for 3 months and it only came out after his indictment was unsealed. The only time something leaks is when it directly involves a principal, who then promptly leaks to the media.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by lunchstealer » 16 Jul 2018, 03:15

Painboy wrote:
14 Jul 2018, 15:59
Something in this case should have broke by now if there was any real proof of significant wrongdoing. Especially so if you think Trump is so stupid as to order a treasonous act in public. He can't be both a conspiratorial mastermind and a boob who publicly admits to his own conspiracies.
I strongly suspect that the level of wrongdoing that actually touches Trump is the kind of thing that doesn't leave 'real proof' of significant wrongdoing. Enough of this stuff can probably be done with a nod and a wink. The reactions of the people on this board are enough to show that it'd be impossible to get most juries to agree on anything that we've seen.

Basically he or his people knew that the Russians were making official offers of help in the form of dirt on Hillary. After some stuff gets leaked and there is strong public suspicion that the Russians were involved, he publicly says 'more of that, please'. Sure, he said it in a way that if I were on a jury I'd probably say there was reasonable doubt that he was only joking with nothing more serious behind it, but reasonable doubt doesn't mean 'probably not'. It includes 'probably, but plausibly not.' That's where I put Trump based on the public knowledge of where we are now. So I'm not sure I'd put him in jail for it because I believe reasonable doubt means that the probably-but-not-certainly-guilty go free, but I conditionally believe he did intentionally accept and encourage Russian help and did not care that it clearly came from illegal hacking, and certainly never told them to stop in any meaningful way.

That is disqualifying for national office - indeed for any public sector job including dog catcher and DMV sadist, and is quite possibly treason.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Painboy » 16 Jul 2018, 11:27

Jadagul wrote:
15 Jul 2018, 14:54
Painboy wrote:
15 Jul 2018, 12:47
Mo wrote:
14 Jul 2018, 18:49
Painboy wrote:
thoreau wrote:
14 Jul 2018, 15:11
Reread this.
thoreau wrote:A million presumptions? Maybe one or two. But we know that his campaign manager was working with Kremlin allies in Ukraine, and that his Ukraine office manager is tied to Russia intelligence. We know that his son was eager to get aid from Russia. We know that Russia reached out to his sons through business associates with Russian ties. We know about Felix Sater's ties to Russian mobsters. We know that lots of people around Trump lied about their contacts with Russia, including people who got jobs needing security clearances. We know that Roger Stone was in contact with people involved in the Podesta email hack.

We know all this and more.

At this point, you need a whole lot of presumptions to assume that Trump was never aware of any of this, that the guy who now has ultimate responsibility for the national security apparatus was completely unaware of Russian activity in his camp, completely unaware that the team from which he chose people for national security posts was stacked with people who had something to hide concerning Russia.
You're just playing connect the dots and the image that is coming out of it is one you're already biased to. Even if Trump knew about every move made it still doesn't prove that anything happened other than some shady meetings. Give me a witness or accomplice who flips and we have something. That shouldn't be that hard to find if something did in fact happen. It's not like Trump inspires a whole lot of loyalty. How many allies has he thrown under the bus in the last several years? How many of them have immediately started talking shit about him?

Something in this case should have broke by now if there was any real proof of significant wrongdoing. Especially so if you think Trump is so stupid as to order a treasonous act in public. He can't be both a conspiratorial mastermind and a boob who publicly admits to his own conspiracies.
None of us know what Mueller has or doesn’t have. Also, based on what evidence or prior example. should this already been broken by now. Ken White has said that as far as federal prosecutions go, this one has moved really quickly. As someone who has sat on both sides of a federal investigation and has been pretty fairminded about the law, I trust that judgement.
While I guess there's an outside possibility Mueller has been able to keep a lid on things, generally speaking the government leaks like a sieve. Especially if the information is of the "game changing" type that could unseat a president. Also there have been signals by Mueller that the investigation is winding down. That doesn't sound like someone about to wrap up an investigation into a wide conspiracy resulting in a whole bunch of arrests.
This simply isn't true.

Mueller's investigation has been pretty much 100% leak-free. And the claims that it's "winding down" are all advanced by Trump's legal team.

That doesn't mean Mueller is about to arrest a whole bunch of people. On the other hand, he did just issue another dozen-ish indictments.
Or maybe it's leak free because there isn't much to leak?

Also I have seen several reports not associated with Trump that the investigation is winding down.
http://thehill.com/policy/national-secu ... of-winding
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... 3da864d7ec

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau » 16 Jul 2018, 11:32

lunchstealer wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 03:15
Painboy wrote:
14 Jul 2018, 15:59
Something in this case should have broke by now if there was any real proof of significant wrongdoing. Especially so if you think Trump is so stupid as to order a treasonous act in public. He can't be both a conspiratorial mastermind and a boob who publicly admits to his own conspiracies.
I strongly suspect that the level of wrongdoing that actually touches Trump is the kind of thing that doesn't leave 'real proof' of significant wrongdoing. Enough of this stuff can probably be done with a nod and a wink. The reactions of the people on this board are enough to show that it'd be impossible to get most juries to agree on anything that we've seen.

Basically he or his people knew that the Russians were making official offers of help in the form of dirt on Hillary. After some stuff gets leaked and there is strong public suspicion that the Russians were involved, he publicly says 'more of that, please'. Sure, he said it in a way that if I were on a jury I'd probably say there was reasonable doubt that he was only joking with nothing more serious behind it, but reasonable doubt doesn't mean 'probably not'. It includes 'probably, but plausibly not.' That's where I put Trump based on the public knowledge of where we are now. So I'm not sure I'd put him in jail for it because I believe reasonable doubt means that the probably-but-not-certainly-guilty go free, but I conditionally believe he did intentionally accept and encourage Russian help and did not care that it clearly came from illegal hacking, and certainly never told them to stop in any meaningful way.

That is disqualifying for national office - indeed for any public sector job including dog catcher and DMV sadist, and is quite possibly treason.
Trump is the new George Zimmerman.

Did we ever find out what Zimmerman's preferred condiments are? Or, for that matter, Trayvon Martin's preferred condiments? We spilled many pixels over this and never got to the true measures of their characters.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen » 16 Jul 2018, 11:59

OFFS:

Trump blames U.S. ‘foolishness and stupidity’ for poor relations with Russia
U.S. President Donald Trump blamed “U.S. foolishness and stupidity” for bad relations between Washington and Moscow, hours before he was to sit down to a one-on-one meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Russian foreign ministry “liked” Trump’s comments on Twitter, in which Trump denounced the investigation into Russian meddling in American elections as well as previous U.S. policy.

“Our relationship with Russia has NEVER been worse thanks to many years of U.S. foolishness and stupidity and now, the Rigged Witch Hunt!” wrote Trump.

The Kremlin said it did not expect much from the meeting but hoped it would be a “first step” to resolving a crisis in ties.
Obviously the Russians don't expect much. They've already gotten everything they could want.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Ellie » 16 Jul 2018, 12:49

Trump's immigration policies and views are the most egregious thing about him, but coming up close second is his fucking random capitalization. Rigged Witch Hunt is not a band name, ffs.
I should have listened to Warren. He was right again as usual.

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by lunchstealer » 16 Jul 2018, 15:50

OK guys. He just said he trusts the ex-KGB guy over pretty much everyone else ever.

On the one hand we have guys with a lot of details about exactly who inside the Russian government engaged in specific interference with the DCCC and Hillary's campaign. On the other hand we've got a guy who kills political opponents with nerve agents and polonium. Trump sees no reason to trust the former over the latter.

If he's not in bed with Russia, then he's just a goddamned moron. Either way, he needs to be locked up for the rest of his life either in a padded cell if he's that stupid, or in a federal stockade if he's even marginally responsible for his own actions.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by lunchstealer » 16 Jul 2018, 15:51

Seriously, he just Charlottesville'd Vladimir motherfucking Putin.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen » 16 Jul 2018, 15:59

From the newsfeeds, even Team Red is pissed off, though their are lots of Trumpers (or Russian Bots?) still supporting him in the various comments sections.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jennifer » 16 Jul 2018, 16:01

Aresen wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 15:59
From the newsfeeds, even Team Red is pissed off
Pfft. They'll get over it and even learn to embrace it, as soon as they figure out "Whoa, this is really-super-duper triggering The Libs."
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau » 16 Jul 2018, 16:28

Guys, this isn't proof of anything. Maybe Trump sincerely believes Putin and has no idea that any of the people around him were playing games with Russian intelligence.

I mean, it may look bad, but that just proves that it isn't what it seems because he's too smart to do anything this bad.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Painboy » 16 Jul 2018, 16:33

This bad even for Trump. It would be one thing to be bland and non-committal but openly supportive of Putin is just bizarre. This is an opportunity for the GOP to roll him over the coals and get some leverage back.

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Shem » 16 Jul 2018, 16:41

Painboy wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 16:33
This bad even for Trump. It would be one thing to be bland and non-committal but openly supportive of Putin is just bizarre.
Unless of course you've been watching him be openly supportive of Putin literally this entire time, in which case it's just more of exactly what half the people here have been dismissing all along.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Ellie » 16 Jul 2018, 16:41

thoreau wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 16:28
I mean, it may look bad, but that just proves that it isn't what it seems because he's too smart to do anything this bad.
Missing a reference to "skin in the game"; 6/10 for familiar thoreau snark


;)
I should have listened to Warren. He was right again as usual.

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jadagul » 16 Jul 2018, 16:52

Painboy wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 11:27
Jadagul wrote:
15 Jul 2018, 14:54
Painboy wrote:
15 Jul 2018, 12:47
Mo wrote:
14 Jul 2018, 18:49
Painboy wrote:
thoreau wrote:
14 Jul 2018, 15:11
Reread this.
You're just playing connect the dots and the image that is coming out of it is one you're already biased to. Even if Trump knew about every move made it still doesn't prove that anything happened other than some shady meetings. Give me a witness or accomplice who flips and we have something. That shouldn't be that hard to find if something did in fact happen. It's not like Trump inspires a whole lot of loyalty. How many allies has he thrown under the bus in the last several years? How many of them have immediately started talking shit about him?

Something in this case should have broke by now if there was any real proof of significant wrongdoing. Especially so if you think Trump is so stupid as to order a treasonous act in public. He can't be both a conspiratorial mastermind and a boob who publicly admits to his own conspiracies.
None of us know what Mueller has or doesn’t have. Also, based on what evidence or prior example. should this already been broken by now. Ken White has said that as far as federal prosecutions go, this one has moved really quickly. As someone who has sat on both sides of a federal investigation and has been pretty fairminded about the law, I trust that judgement.
While I guess there's an outside possibility Mueller has been able to keep a lid on things, generally speaking the government leaks like a sieve. Especially if the information is of the "game changing" type that could unseat a president. Also there have been signals by Mueller that the investigation is winding down. That doesn't sound like someone about to wrap up an investigation into a wide conspiracy resulting in a whole bunch of arrests.
This simply isn't true.

Mueller's investigation has been pretty much 100% leak-free. And the claims that it's "winding down" are all advanced by Trump's legal team.

That doesn't mean Mueller is about to arrest a whole bunch of people. On the other hand, he did just issue another dozen-ish indictments.
Or maybe it's leak free because there isn't much to leak?

Also I have seen several reports not associated with Trump that the investigation is winding down.
http://thehill.com/policy/national-secu ... of-winding
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... 3da864d7ec
Whenever Mueller issues indictments, it's big news. Not one of those indictments has leaked, at all, before the fact. I don't think anyone saw the Butina indictment from today coming, for instance.

As for the other thing: you realize that one of the stories you linked sourced the other, right? And the Post attributed to "people familiar with the investigation," which probably means lawyers for Trump or Manafort or somebody. (Isn't it kind of weird to run the line: "Mueller just hired a bunch of new prosecutors. This is evidence that he's winding his probe down."?)

Team Trump has been consistently trying to convince people that the Mueller probe is close to concluding without finding anything substantial. There is no evidence for this at all, really. But they talk to the press and Mueller's team doesn't, so they shape the reporting of the probe more than he does.

And then every couple of months he indicts another dozen people and stirs up the anthill again.

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen » 16 Jul 2018, 16:54

Shem wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 16:41
Painboy wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 16:33
This bad even for Trump. It would be one thing to be bland and non-committal but openly supportive of Putin is just bizarre.
Unless of course you've been watching him be openly supportive of Putin literally this entire time, in which case it's just more of exactly what half the people here have been dismissing all along.
I fully expected Trump to continue his unrequited bromance of Putin. However, his tweet blaming the US for the bad state of US - Russian relations goes beyond what I expected even the most ardent Trumper to tolerate. They are not a group noted for appreciating any comment even mildly disparaging of 'Murica.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Highway » 16 Jul 2018, 16:59

Aresen wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 16:54
Shem wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 16:41
Painboy wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 16:33
This bad even for Trump. It would be one thing to be bland and non-committal but openly supportive of Putin is just bizarre.
Unless of course you've been watching him be openly supportive of Putin literally this entire time, in which case it's just more of exactly what half the people here have been dismissing all along.
I fully expected Trump to continue his unrequited bromance of Putin. However, his tweet blaming the US for the bad state of US - Russian relations goes beyond what I expected even the most ardent Trumper to tolerate. They are not a group noted for appreciating any comment even mildly disparaging of 'Murica.
They're all about disparaging 'Murica, because it's been ruined by the libs. What do you think MAGA is about? The whole statement is "America now sucks." Blaming "Past presidents" because *wink wink* we KNOW that means Slick Willie and O-Bummer is totally on point for this crowd.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by lunchstealer » 16 Jul 2018, 17:02

Aresen wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 16:54
Shem wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 16:41
Painboy wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 16:33
This bad even for Trump. It would be one thing to be bland and non-committal but openly supportive of Putin is just bizarre.
Unless of course you've been watching him be openly supportive of Putin literally this entire time, in which case it's just more of exactly what half the people here have been dismissing all along.
I fully expected Trump to continue his unrequited bromance of Putin. However, his tweet blaming the US for the bad state of US - Russian relations goes beyond what I expected even the most ardent Trumper to tolerate. They are not a group noted for appreciating any comment even mildly disparaging of 'Murica.
lol that's so cute.

To them, he is America. The other people are the stupid libtards and rinos and not real America.

Trump has always been a rebellion against being smart, careful, and responsible. This is just continuing it. The Trumpenproles are on board.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen » 16 Jul 2018, 17:08

I fear you may be right, Highway and lunchstealer. And that is depressing.

I am going to be watching 538 closely for the next couple of days for any sign of a dip in his approval.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by nicole » 16 Jul 2018, 17:27

Aresen wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 17:08
I fear you may be right, Highway and lunchstealer. And that is depressing.

I am going to be watching 538 closely for the next couple of days for any sign of a dip in his approval.
That and the H&R comments section.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau » 16 Jul 2018, 17:27

At 25:12 he starts talking about his electoral college victory.

"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Aresen » 16 Jul 2018, 17:34

nicole wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 17:27
Aresen wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 17:08
I fear you may be right, Highway and lunchstealer. And that is depressing.

I am going to be watching 538 closely for the next couple of days for any sign of a dip in his approval.
That and the H&R comments section.
So far, the latter is fully living down to its vomitous self.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Painboy » 16 Jul 2018, 17:38

Shem wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 16:41
Painboy wrote:
16 Jul 2018, 16:33
This bad even for Trump. It would be one thing to be bland and non-committal but openly supportive of Putin is just bizarre.
Unless of course you've been watching him be openly supportive of Putin literally this entire time, in which case it's just more of exactly what half the people here have been dismissing all along.
Oh I know he has been doing it despite his administrations own policies. At some point I assumed he'd get all blustery again like he usually does when he thinks he has the upper hand in whatever "deal" he has going on in his head.

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