Jadagul wrote: ↑
10 Apr 2018, 15:30
I mean, impeachment is inherent political, so you're right that it doesn't matter if he committed a couple of technical violations.
But the immovability of Trump's support is wildly overstated. Firing Comey lead to like a four-point sustained drop in his approval rating. Sufficiently clear evidence of a sufficiently clear crime will swing a lot more people.
(You're right that his hard-core supporters will probably not abandon him. Nixon had a 25% approval rating when he left office. But you don't need to win them over; you just need to win over the squishier supporters. When Nixon had a 25% approval rating, he left office).
While I concur that the size of his immovable base is probably over-stated, I'm more worried that nice, centrist, Serious Liberals would refuse to pull the trigger on impeachment and removal. The Dems will get the House in fall without question, and I am even optimistic about the Senate. (In short, I think Trump is toxic for the GOP, more than current forecasts state, but we'll find out if I'm right.) I can see the scenario where undeniable evidence of serious crimes comes out and Republicans even start abandoning him, but the Blues (of all people) hem and haw and maybe even impeach but don't remove.
Why? Because I spent Easter with some friends who are nice, centrist, Serious Liberals, and they were all saying that they'd rather leave Trump in and run against him in 2020 than deal with a far more effective President Pence in 2019 and 2020. I pointed out that if Trump gets away with serious crimes then we're setting a dangerous precedent, and their answer was basically "Yeah, but a couple years of slightly more effective Republican domestic policy, man! You wanna live through that?"
And the other thing is that nice, centrist, Serious Liberals have always had an allergy to holding the powerful accountable. After everything else that Pelosi & Co. have excused for decades, do we really think the Congressional Blues would go through with punishing a felonious President? I have my doubts.
"Well, yes, we saw the video of Trump raping a toddler while sucking off Putin, and we saw Putin hand cash to Trump and say 'For your 2020 campaign, tovarisch', but we just felt we should not politicize impeachment and criminal justice, and it would set the wrong precedent."
Tell me I'm wrong.