Orange is the new President

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Hugh Akston »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 08:14
JasonL wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 08:13
I have no idea what Klobuchar thinks about anything.
That's what we call electability. You fill in the blanks on your own.
This is a good point. We didn't know what Barack Obama thought about anything in 2008 or 2012.
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Shem
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Shem »

Jadagul wrote:
07 Dec 2019, 23:39
Klobuchar has a really good electability pitch, too. She's beating neutral in Minnesota by like 15 points or something.
Klobuchar doesn't have the liberal bonafides to mollify the progressive wing. It'd be Bernie Sanders running a campaign all the way to the day of the convention vote again.
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Mo
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Mo »

*whispers* The progressive wing is actually pretty small outside of Twitter.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Mo wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 14:18
*whispers* The progressive wing is actually pretty small outside of Twitter.
It's small as a percentage of Democrats, let alone voters in general, but it's large enough among Democratic activists to make a difference in both the nomination and the party platform. In other words, it's large enough to lose the election.

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

D.A. Ridgely wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 14:41
Mo wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 14:18
*whispers* The progressive wing is actually pretty small outside of Twitter.
It's small as a percentage of Democrats, let alone voters in general, but it's large enough among Democratic activists to make a difference in both the nomination and the party platform. In other words, it's large enough to lose the election.
What do these progressive activists do to get this influence? Do they phone bank? Do they canvass? Do they stuff envelopes? Do they dress up nice and sit at folding tables checking off names from lists and handing name badges to people who show up at fundraising dinners?

I've only done a tiny bit of that stuff myself, but the people I've met when I've done that stuff have seemed perfectly fine with moderation and compromise. They seem much more practical than the people who retweet articles about Mayor Pete not being gay enough.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

P.S. I will grant that you tend to meet moderates when you campaign for a Blue in an Orange County House District. Still, I question how many pronoun-obsessives and hard-leftists are willing to spend 6+ months living and working in Iowa, New Hampshire, or black-majority precincts in South Carolina so that their preferred candidate can win a key early primary. The ground game is dominated by people who are no doubt deeply committed but also quite willing to accept compromises for the cause.

I think the progressive wing's greatest influence is in generating buzz that journalists pick up on, driving the media campaign.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

thoreau wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 15:17
D.A. Ridgely wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 14:41
Mo wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 14:18
*whispers* The progressive wing is actually pretty small outside of Twitter.
It's small as a percentage of Democrats, let alone voters in general, but it's large enough among Democratic activists to make a difference in both the nomination and the party platform. In other words, it's large enough to lose the election.
What do these progressive activists do to get this influence? Do they phone bank? Do they canvass? Do they stuff envelopes? Do they dress up nice and sit at folding tables checking off names from lists and handing name badges to people who show up at fundraising dinners?

I've only done a tiny bit of that stuff myself, but the people I've met when I've done that stuff have seemed perfectly fine with moderation and compromise. They seem much more practical than the people who retweet articles about Mayor Pete not being gay enough.

P.S. I will grant that you tend to meet moderates when you campaign for a Blue in an Orange County House District. Still, I question how many pronoun-obsessives and hard-leftists are willing to spend 6+ months living and working in Iowa, New Hampshire, or black-majority precincts in South Carolina so that their preferred candidate can win a key early primary. The ground game is dominated by people who are no doubt deeply committed but also quite willing to accept compromises for the cause.

I think the progressive wing's greatest influence is in generating buzz that journalists pick up on, driving the media campaign
Well, yes and no. I mean, yes, they do all that stuff and, more importantly, they're relentless. Lots of politics is just showing up and they always show up to do that retail politics stuff. I don't mean the pronoun police; they're not the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, they're the progressive wing of the progressive wing and, yeah, they have about as much pull as hard-core libertarians in a social conservative Republican Party.

But $15 minimum wage laws (not because they care about the poor so much as they know it ratchets wages up), higher tax rates, socialized medicine, higher corporate tax rates, campaign finance reform, etc., etc. They can push candidates into adopting positions significantly to the left of wherever or whatever is left of moderation in the Democratic Party and make it that much harder to tack to the middle in the general campaign.

So when you say "accept compromise" I don't disagree up to a point, but the range of compromise is probably more narrow than in your particular experience.

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Re: Orange is the new President

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Pham Nuwen wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 08:14
JasonL wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 08:13
I have no idea what Klobuchar thinks about anything.
That's what we call electability. You fill in the blanks on your own.
One thing you can say about the Orange One: All the blanks were filled in.
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Mo
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Mo »

Except the progressive wing is also disproportionately young. So they don’t really vote.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Jadagul
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jadagul »

Aresen wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 16:35
Pham Nuwen wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 08:14
JasonL wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 08:13
I have no idea what Klobuchar thinks about anything.
That's what we call electability. You fill in the blanks on your own.
One thing you can say about the Orange One: All the blanks were filled in.
I only halfway agree with that. Like, he campaigned on being less solicitous of Saudi Arabia.
JasonL wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 08:13
I have no idea what Klobuchar thinks about anything.
I said "electable", not "good on policy".
Shem wrote:
08 Dec 2019, 13:40
Jadagul wrote:
07 Dec 2019, 23:39
Klobuchar has a really good electability pitch, too. She's beating neutral in Minnesota by like 15 points or something.
Klobuchar doesn't have the liberal bonafides to mollify the progressive wing. It'd be Bernie Sanders running a campaign all the way to the day of the convention vote again.
I meant electable in the general election. :P

More seriously, I don't know how seriously to take that concern; probably medium. But she almost certainly has the best electability pitch of all the current candidates assuming the party unifies behind her, which is really what I was talking about.

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Eric the .5b »

I'm just hoping Biden isn't this much of a load in the general.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by JasonL »

How electable do you guys think E Warren is?

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Mo
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Mo »

More than the media thinks, less than her fans think.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Orange is the new President

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JasonL wrote:
09 Dec 2019, 07:30
How electable do you guys think E Warren is?
Even money against Trump at this point.

I still think it more likely than not that Trump is actively trying to not be president. Would not be surprised if he torpedoed his own campaign. But honestly, where can he go from here that would make himself more unpalatable to voters than where he's been already? Laundering the mobs money? Dumping his waste in the river? Maybe if he's been catering to the market Epstein left behind out of the White House. Maybe.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

And they say that I'm the crazy one who sees this all as an 11-dimensional chess game.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Pham Nuwen »

I just don't really see how Trump wins against a hella mobilized voter base. He's basically pissed off everyone that isn't a Trumpkin. I think it will be closer than it should be but I think he loses.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Shem »

Mo wrote:
09 Dec 2019, 08:17
More than the media thinks, less than her fans think.
Agreed. I actually think quite a bit more than the media thinks. There's a lot of stuff they cover with breathless incredulity that would actually be quite popular among the groups they talk about constantly without really understanding. Her issue would be a stunning lack of charisma, combined with attempts to run from the fact that she's a giant nerd without charisma that makes her look really inauthentic. Which is a bigger deal than a lot of her supporters would like to believe.
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

Shem wrote:
09 Dec 2019, 13:58
the fact that she's a giant nerd without charisma that makes her look really inauthentic. Which is a bigger deal than a lot of her supporters would like to believe.
She is Cabinet material, not White House. The Blues will be making a mistake if they run a nerd against Biff Tannen.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Orange is the new President

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Unfortunately, the blues don't have Marty McFly to run. They just have George.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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They need to either run Diamond Joe (an old scoundrel who is unimpressed by Biff) or somebody who can help America move past the 80's movie and be like "Oh, yeah, we've ceded 21st century America to a cheesy 80's character. Enough of this shit."

Klobuchar seems suitably boring and unimpressed. And if she wins I can spend 4 years making good use of my Midwest accent you know.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Warren »

Pham Nuwen wrote:
09 Dec 2019, 13:56
I just don't really see how Trump wins against a hella mobilized voter base. He's basically pissed off everyone that isn't a Trumpkin. I think it will be closer than it should be but I think he loses.
Uh huh. That certainly seems to be the case. At least until you fill in the blank. I think he loses to _____.
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Re: Orange is the new President

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I think Warren and Sanders are the only two serious candidates who even come close to losing in the general, barring some really fucked up skeleton in a closet. Anyone who doesn't have Hillary baggage is gonna do 2% better than she did, and that's the ball game. Saying "Socialist" out loud may be enough to sink Sanders, and combining the 'pocahontas' hook with looking identical to Sanders' socialism might be enough to sink Warren. Biden, Booker, Harris, Buttiegieg*, Klobuchar, Gillibrand - I think any of them can turn out voters who just don't want to see Trump in the news anymore. I think Trump voters don't turn out in the same numbers, and it won't take much to put any sane-sounding Blue into 1600.

*I don't THINK that the homosexuality will sink him, but maybe. It MIGHT animate religious conservatives just enough to keep Trump's turnout up.
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thoreau
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by thoreau »

Da ting dat matters is dat I can do a real good midwest accent ya know so I say Klobuchar hey.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Jadagul »

People who are viewed as moderates tend to be more electable on the margin than people who are viewed as extremists. That's a knock on Warren and Sanders.

(Before you try to use Trump as a counterexample, he was viewed as quite moderate during the 2016 election. On average people thought he was more moderate than they thought Clinton was.)

People who do well in some elections (relative to base partisan lean of their constituency) tend to do better in subsequent elections. This is very positive for Klobuchar, and I think positive for Booker and Sanders but don't hold me to that? And it's bad for Warren, who is winning handily but doing it in extremely blue Massachusetts; I think she underperformed Clinton by like five or ten points there.

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Re: Orange is the new President

Post by Eric the .5b »

thoreau wrote:
09 Dec 2019, 11:14
And they say that I'm the crazy one who sees this all as an 11-dimensional chess game.
Sorry, I'm behind on the drama. Who's saying this about your view of the Team Blue campaigns?
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