Calling 2020 for Entropy

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thoreau
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by thoreau » 03 Apr 2019, 13:25

What's so great about Thanos? The dude was, at best, half-right.
"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 03 Apr 2019, 14:18

thoreau wrote:
03 Apr 2019, 13:25
What's so great about Thanos? The dude was, at best, half-right.
Which is way over the average for most of our presidents.

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dhex
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by dhex » 03 Apr 2019, 14:32

So is Biden done or is he gonna just governor blackface it out?
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 03 Apr 2019, 14:57

dhex wrote:
03 Apr 2019, 14:32
So is Biden done or is he gonna just governor blackface it out?
He's done, he just doesn't know it yet.

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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Aresen » 03 Apr 2019, 15:09

thoreau wrote:
03 Apr 2019, 13:25
What's so great about Thanos? The dude was, at best, half-right.
I was thinking more of 'snapping' the candidates who pissed him off.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex

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Kolohe
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Kolohe » 03 Apr 2019, 16:37

Shem wrote:
02 Apr 2019, 23:30
JasonL wrote:
02 Apr 2019, 20:19
Shem wrote:
JasonL wrote:
02 Apr 2019, 16:03
Mo wrote:
02 Apr 2019, 06:45
Buttigieg will become president because it is preordained that Gen X is permanently skipped over.
Haha this is so true. We are the nameless, forgotten wretches who neither broke everything nor spend our time at moms having her do our laundry while we complain about how bad we have it. We are the Great Meh.
Big talk from the guy whose generation brought us Ted Cruz.

But hey, bitching about being ignored means never having to say "I tried and failed." So you got that going for you.
Tried. Outdated concept.
Ted. Cruz. Into the dustbin of history with you.
If you're born in Canada, you're not really an American Gen Xer
when you wake up as the queen of the n=1 kingdom and mount your steed non sequiturius, do you look out upon all you survey and think “damn, it feels good to be a green idea sleeping furiously?" - dhex

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Aresen
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Aresen » 06 Apr 2019, 11:20

From 538

While this is two months old, it is still encouraging:

Almost Half Of Voters Are Dead Set Against Voting For Trump
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex

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thoreau
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by thoreau » 06 Apr 2019, 12:05

Aresen wrote:From 538

While this is two months old, it is still encouraging:

Almost Half Of Voters Are Dead Set Against Voting For Trump
They say that now, but wait until we have an actual Dem nominee, and we find out that they once made a personal call from their work phone while wearing earth tones that had been rated highly by a focus group.

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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Hugh Akston » 06 Apr 2019, 13:32

I would think the one lesson we would have gleaned from Hillary Clinton's overwhelming victory in 2016 is not to trust political polling.
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Shem
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Shem » 06 Apr 2019, 17:03

Hugh Akston wrote:
06 Apr 2019, 13:32
I would think the one lesson we would have gleaned from Hillary Clinton's overwhelming victory in 2016 is not to trust political polling.
Why? The polls were, in aggregate, dead-on. Said she'd win the popular vote by three points, and win she did, by a bit more than 2.5. The votes were just too concentrated to win the electoral college.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Hugh Akston » 06 Apr 2019, 17:26

Shem wrote:
06 Apr 2019, 17:03
Hugh Akston wrote:
06 Apr 2019, 13:32
I would think the one lesson we would have gleaned from Hillary Clinton's overwhelming victory in 2016 is not to trust political polling.
Why? The polls were, in aggregate, dead-on. Said she'd win the popular vote by three points, and win she did, by a bit more than 2.5. The votes were just too concentrated to win the electoral college.
The popular vote doesn't win the presidency. That was apparently a surprise to Team Blue in '016, and an ongoing source of bafflement to the people trying to re-litigate the '016 election.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Jadagul » 06 Apr 2019, 18:07

Hugh Akston wrote:
06 Apr 2019, 17:26
Shem wrote:
06 Apr 2019, 17:03
Hugh Akston wrote:
06 Apr 2019, 13:32
I would think the one lesson we would have gleaned from Hillary Clinton's overwhelming victory in 2016 is not to trust political polling.
Why? The polls were, in aggregate, dead-on. Said she'd win the popular vote by three points, and win she did, by a bit more than 2.5. The votes were just too concentrated to win the electoral college.
The popular vote doesn't win the presidency. That was apparently a surprise to Team Blue in '016, and an ongoing source of bafflement to the people trying to re-litigate the '016 election.
But the polls were pretty accurate. So this is a good reason to dunk on a lot of commentators, but a bad reason to dunk on polls.

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thoreau
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by thoreau » 06 Apr 2019, 18:11

The pollsters who report odds or error bars alongside their predictions were all saying that it would be close. Yes, there were those surprises in WI, MI, and PA, but those were more surprising to wishful partisans than sober pollsters.

And while the national popular vote doesn't determine the outcome it is strongly correlated with the outcome (correlation coefficient is not 1.0 but it isn't 0.0 either), so if you're making statistical predictions (which is what pollsters do) you don't rely solely on popular vote numbers but you don't ignore them either.

Frankly, 2016 would have been less surprising if we had paid closer attention to pollsters.

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"They were basically like D&D min maxers, but instead of pissing off their DM, they destroyed the global economy. Also, instead of their DM making a level 7 paladin fight a beholder as punishment, he got a +3 sword of turning."
--Mo

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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by nicole » 07 Apr 2019, 07:52

It wasn’t that surprising by November, because the polls were right. I definitely remember not knowing who would win on the day, not being surprised it was Trump, and being annoyed the next day with everyone acting shocked about it.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by JasonL » 07 Apr 2019, 08:23

I was guilty of a no fucking way is this real life thing well past the final count.

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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Ellie » 07 Apr 2019, 10:15

JasonL wrote:
07 Apr 2019, 08:23
I was guilty of a no fucking way is this real life thing well past the final count.
Same.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Warren » 07 Apr 2019, 10:24

nicole wrote:
07 Apr 2019, 07:52
It wasn’t that surprising by November, because the polls were right. I definitely remember not knowing who would win on the day, not being surprised it was Trump, and being annoyed the next day with everyone acting shocked about it.
#MeToo
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Ellie » 07 Apr 2019, 10:51

There's a reason one of the two of us had to give up 8 months of sig space. :lol:
"He's just an idiot elected by idiots." - Pham

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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Warren » 07 Apr 2019, 11:09

Ellie wrote:
07 Apr 2019, 10:51
There's a reason one of the two of us had to give up 8 months of sig space. :lol:
And did one of us learn anything?
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Aresen » 07 Apr 2019, 11:12

JasonL wrote:
07 Apr 2019, 08:23
I was guilty of a no fucking way is this real life thing well past the final count.
I had seen Nate Silver's forecasts that Trump had something like a 30% chance of winning, but I was still shocked and surprised the next morning when I found out. (I had stopped looking at the newsfeed the night before when the computer projections tilted in Trump's favor.)

Then I calmed down and thought "Oh, he can't be as bad as he seems."

That one didn't last beyond January 31, 2017.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex

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Ellie
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Ellie » 07 Apr 2019, 11:59

Warren wrote:
07 Apr 2019, 11:09
Ellie wrote:
07 Apr 2019, 10:51
There's a reason one of the two of us had to give up 8 months of sig space. :lol:
And did one of us learn anything?
I learned I really really like making bets on Grylliade and wish I could do that more!
"He's just an idiot elected by idiots." - Pham

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Mo
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Mo » 07 Apr 2019, 14:17

Aresen wrote:
JasonL wrote:
07 Apr 2019, 08:23
I was guilty of a no fucking way is this real life thing well past the final count.
I had seen Nate Silver's forecasts that Trump had something like a 30% chance of winning, but I was still shocked and surprised the next morning when I found out. (I had stopped looking at the newsfeed the night before when the computer projections tilted in Trump's favor.)

Then I calmed down and thought "Oh, he can't be as bad as he seems."

That one didn't last beyond January 31, 2017.
I remember when Hillary was near her biggest lead and 538 had her with and 86% chance of winning and people in my FB timeline were acting like she had it in the bag. My one thought was, “Have none of you ever played craps?”
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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thoreau
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by thoreau » 07 Apr 2019, 14:50

JasonL wrote:I was guilty of a no fucking way is this real life thing well past the final count.
Yeah. I ignored the polls. I was sure this was impossible.

But me ignoring the polls does not mean they are wrong.

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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Jadagul » 07 Apr 2019, 16:38

thoreau wrote:
07 Apr 2019, 14:50
JasonL wrote:I was guilty of a no fucking way is this real life thing well past the final count.
Yeah. I ignored the polls. I was sure this was impossible.

But me ignoring the polls does not mean they are wrong.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk
Right.

I definitely had a certain feeling that surely things would break the other way. The pools had to be overestimating Trump. Other people believed that even more strongly.

But it's not reasonable to criticize the polls for the fact that everyone assumed they must be wrong. The more you listened to actual polls in that election cycle, the more right you tended to be.

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Shem
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Shem » 07 Apr 2019, 18:40

Mo wrote:
07 Apr 2019, 14:17
Aresen wrote:
JasonL wrote:
07 Apr 2019, 08:23
I was guilty of a no fucking way is this real life thing well past the final count.
I had seen Nate Silver's forecasts that Trump had something like a 30% chance of winning, but I was still shocked and surprised the next morning when I found out. (I had stopped looking at the newsfeed the night before when the computer projections tilted in Trump's favor.)

Then I calmed down and thought "Oh, he can't be as bad as he seems."

That one didn't last beyond January 31, 2017.
I remember when Hillary was near her biggest lead and 538 had her with and 86% chance of winning and people in my FB timeline were acting like she had it in the bag. My one thought was, “Have none of you ever played craps?”
Nate Silver's response to that was "you have an ~84% chance of winning at Russian Roulette, are you willing to stake your life on those odds?" Which I thought was a good way of putting it.
"VOTE SHEMOCRACY! You will only have to do it once!" -Loyalty Officer Aresen

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