Calling 2020 for Entropy

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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Mind you, I've got no problem with tax issues or anything else that can be leveled against him in a civil trial resulting in huge fines, etc. And if states want to go after him, that's fine, too. But that's about as far as you can push it without the rabble being roused.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Aresen »

D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 19:46 Trump on trial for crimes committed while in office might (1) lead to an acquittal, (2) lead to a conviction resulting in loons with lots of guns taking to the streets. Make him a big enough martyr and you actually might get him back in 2024.
I'm more worried that Trump will get back in 2024 because a post-COVID recession really starts biting hard after Biden gets in and doesn't get better because the Feds have basically exhausted their fiscal tools.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by thoreau »

I just want some eminent domain exercised at 721 Fifth Avenue.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Shem »

JD wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 19:38 Based on that thread, the lefty Twitter mob is losing its shit over Biden saying he's not going to aggressively pursue Trump post-election. The idea that there might be any bigger issue totally escapes them and they're melting down like toddlers.

TWITTER: I wanna see Trump prosecuted!
BIDEN: No, honey, we have to go do continuity of government.
TWITTER, starting to whine: But I wanna see Trump prosecuted! He deserves it! *stamps foot*
Biden: I know, sweetie, but the adults have to do bigger picture stuff.
TWITTER, screaming, in tears: I WANNA SEE TRUMP PROSECUTED IT'S NOT FAAAAIR!!!
And Biden's not even saying "we won't prosecute." He's saying "imma let the DOJ handle all that."
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Shem »

D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 19:48 Mind you, I've got no problem with tax issues or anything else that can be leveled against him in a civil trial resulting in huge fines, etc. And if states want to go after him, that's fine, too. But that's about as far as you can push it without the rabble being roused.
You think the stuff you've got no problems with won't rouse them?
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Jadagul »

Yeah, there's kind of a big difference between "a priority of my administration is putting the last administration in jail" and "as President, I don't plan to direct the DOJ to make specific politically-motivated investigations".
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Shem wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:04
D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 19:48 Mind you, I've got no problem with tax issues or anything else that can be leveled against him in a civil trial resulting in huge fines, etc. And if states want to go after him, that's fine, too. But that's about as far as you can push it without the rabble being roused.
You think the stuff you've got no problems with won't rouse them?
I do. Civil actions don't get or hold the attention of people the way criminal trials do. If Trumpsters get infuriated over New York State indicting or trying Trump, it's still not nearly as big a deal as a federal prosecution.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Shem wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:04
D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 19:48 Mind you, I've got no problem with tax issues or anything else that can be leveled against him in a civil trial resulting in huge fines, etc. And if states want to go after him, that's fine, too. But that's about as far as you can push it without the rabble being roused.
You think the stuff you've got no problems with won't rouse them?
Team Shem. My only reason for issuing a pardon for Trump is to deny the Trumpers a rallying point. They won't go away, of course, but prosecuting Trump would only serve to stir them up.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Aresen wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:31
Shem wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:04
D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 19:48 Mind you, I've got no problem with tax issues or anything else that can be leveled against him in a civil trial resulting in huge fines, etc. And if states want to go after him, that's fine, too. But that's about as far as you can push it without the rabble being roused.
You think the stuff you've got no problems with won't rouse them?
Team Shem. My only reason for issuing a pardon for Trump is to deny the Trumpers a rallying point. They won't go away, of course, but prosecuting Trump would only serve to stir them up.
Yeah, but a pardon won't protect him from civil actions or state prosecutions, anyway. You might prefer that New York or some other state refrain from prosecuting Trump, but if it does his slavering minions' ire will be directed at a state, not at the United States. If they want to attack New York, well, I think New York can defend itself. If it can't, it can get plenty of help from the National Guard. Regardless, that prosecution won't be a justification or trigger to start bombing or shooting at federal buildings across the country and that's a significant difference.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:47
Aresen wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:31
Shem wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:04
D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 19:48 Mind you, I've got no problem with tax issues or anything else that can be leveled against him in a civil trial resulting in huge fines, etc. And if states want to go after him, that's fine, too. But that's about as far as you can push it without the rabble being roused.
You think the stuff you've got no problems with won't rouse them?
Team Shem. My only reason for issuing a pardon for Trump is to deny the Trumpers a rallying point. They won't go away, of course, but prosecuting Trump would only serve to stir them up.
Yeah, but a pardon won't protect him from civil actions or state prosecutions, anyway. You might prefer that New York or some other state refrain from prosecuting Trump, but if it does his slavering minions' ire will be directed at a state, not at the United States. If they want to attack New York, well, I think New York can defend itself. If it can't, it can get plenty of help from the National Guard. Regardless, that prosecution won't be a justification or trigger to start bombing or shooting at federal buildings across the country and that's a significant difference.
I certainly hope you're right, but I'm not sure his more...mentally interesting followers see a distinction between a state and the feds. Q has them believing all their enemies everywhere are part of one singular conspiracy to destroy them. I'm concerned they'd just see a state-level prosecution as the "Deep State" using a cat's paw.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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I think we're screwed no matter what. If he gets away with his corruption, it just reinforces everyone's worst suspicions about the system and sets up the wrong incentives, especially with the way he used his office to enrich himself. If he's prosecuted by either the USDOJ (Biden appointees) or the NY AG (a Dem) it again reinforces certain narratives about power and sets up dangerous incentives for future presidents when they are facing a loss of power. If these decisions are made based on fear of an armed mob, again, that just reinforces the left's worst suspicions about American politics and power.

The fact that we're facing this in the first place means the rot is deep. America never should have elected a man as compromised and crooked as Trump.

To shift from generalized pessimism to questions of particulars, DAR, I'm curious, what do you see as the things he could likely be prosecuted for? Are you thinking of his years of tax evasion and related business shenanigans, or are you thinking of things he did in office?
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Shem wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 22:28
D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:47
Aresen wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:31
Shem wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:04
D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 19:48 Mind you, I've got no problem with tax issues or anything else that can be leveled against him in a civil trial resulting in huge fines, etc. And if states want to go after him, that's fine, too. But that's about as far as you can push it without the rabble being roused.
You think the stuff you've got no problems with won't rouse them?
Team Shem. My only reason for issuing a pardon for Trump is to deny the Trumpers a rallying point. They won't go away, of course, but prosecuting Trump would only serve to stir them up.
Yeah, but a pardon won't protect him from civil actions or state prosecutions, anyway. You might prefer that New York or some other state refrain from prosecuting Trump, but if it does his slavering minions' ire will be directed at a state, not at the United States. If they want to attack New York, well, I think New York can defend itself. If it can't, it can get plenty of help from the National Guard. Regardless, that prosecution won't be a justification or trigger to start bombing or shooting at federal buildings across the country and that's a significant difference.
I certainly hope you're right, but I'm not sure his more...mentally interesting followers see a distinction between a state and the feds. Q has them believing all their enemies everywhere are part of one singular conspiracy to destroy them. I'm concerned they'd just see a state-level prosecution as the "Deep State" using a cat's paw.
Agree with Shem. Best option is he has a sudden bone spur that makes the prosecutors able to charge but leaves them unable to proceed with a trial.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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thoreau wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 19:41 It's not a childish request. I go back and forth on how dangerous it is, but I know that letting Trump get away with everything he's done is also dangerous. We're stuck between two pretty big dangers, and I can't fault people for picking one of them over the other.

For my part, a good compromise would be state but not federal investigations, and punishment is losing that which he loves most: His real estate.
My problem with the whole thing was that Biden didn't say that Trump wouldn't get prosecuted. He said that he was not going to interfere with the Justice Department for political purposes so HE wasn't going to tell them to or not to pursue charges against Trump. If they choose to prosecute Trump, it's not at his request.

That is as it should be, there's no particular reason to think that Biden wouldn't put in an AG that would put the pieces in place that led to the DoJ coming to precisely that conclusion if it thinks it can get away with it. It may or may not think that it can.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Aresen wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 22:55
Shem wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 22:28
D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:47
Aresen wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:31
Shem wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 21:04
D.A. Ridgely wrote: 17 Nov 2020, 19:48 Mind you, I've got no problem with tax issues or anything else that can be leveled against him in a civil trial resulting in huge fines, etc. And if states want to go after him, that's fine, too. But that's about as far as you can push it without the rabble being roused.
You think the stuff you've got no problems with won't rouse them?
Team Shem. My only reason for issuing a pardon for Trump is to deny the Trumpers a rallying point. They won't go away, of course, but prosecuting Trump would only serve to stir them up.
Yeah, but a pardon won't protect him from civil actions or state prosecutions, anyway. You might prefer that New York or some other state refrain from prosecuting Trump, but if it does his slavering minions' ire will be directed at a state, not at the United States. If they want to attack New York, well, I think New York can defend itself. If it can't, it can get plenty of help from the National Guard. Regardless, that prosecution won't be a justification or trigger to start bombing or shooting at federal buildings across the country and that's a significant difference.
I certainly hope you're right, but I'm not sure his more...mentally interesting followers see a distinction between a state and the feds. Q has them believing all their enemies everywhere are part of one singular conspiracy to destroy them. I'm concerned they'd just see a state-level prosecution as the "Deep State" using a cat's paw.
Agree with Shem. Best option is he has a sudden bone spur that makes the prosecutors able to charge but leaves them unable to proceed with a trial.
Oh, I still think they should nail him. It'll make the Q people go even more fucking crazy, but with them is a matter of when we get to someone going off the deep end and blowing up a building, not if. And unfortunately, I suspect that until that happens, "moderate" Congressional Republicans aren't going to care enough to actually take a stand.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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I'd love to see him in an orange jumpsuit, but not at the cost of violence or, worse, him winning again in 2024. (I blelieve DAR said a conviction doesn't disqualify)
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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the party of educated grown-ups wrote:LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP!
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Hugh Akston wrote: 18 Nov 2020, 01:26
the party of educated grown-ups wrote:LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP! LOCK HIM UP!
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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It's best by far to let it fade. If you insist on a thing being a political rallying point it will be a political rallying point. If you fail to get him in a bunch of soft cases you just continue to erode credibility among everyone other than the faithful. I know people don't think credibility matters anymore but I maintain that it does. It's in the background constantly. You will at one point be asking for people who are not 100% on your team to believe something you are saying and at that moment you will be bitten.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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JasonL wrote: 18 Nov 2020, 11:26I know people don't think credibility matters anymore but I maintain that it does. It's in the background constantly. You will at one point be asking for people who are not 100% on your team to believe something you are saying and at that moment you will be bitten.
This was a major justification for pardoning Nixon, and it got us party elder Nixon hanging around behind the scenes for several decades, and a crop of Republicans who figured that since Nixon got away with it, no sense not going for it with Trump. Not taking action damages credibility too. The question is, do you want the law to have credibility, or your politicians?
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Shem wrote: 18 Nov 2020, 11:53
JasonL wrote: 18 Nov 2020, 11:26I know people don't think credibility matters anymore but I maintain that it does. It's in the background constantly. You will at one point be asking for people who are not 100% on your team to believe something you are saying and at that moment you will be bitten.
This was a major justification for pardoning Nixon, and it got us party elder Nixon hanging around behind the scenes for several decades, and a crop of Republicans who figured that since Nixon got away with it, no sense not going for it with Trump. Not taking action damages credibility too. The question is, do you want the law to have credibility, or your politicians?
I think if you have real cases with real evidence for real normally prosecutable crimes, you do it. If you have to reach, and I want to be clear hear I think the entire Russiagate thing was a reach, don't do it.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by D.A. Ridgely »

Nixon and Kissinger were by any reasonable interpretation war criminals, so Nixon's "Enemies List" or complicity in the Watergate burglary or subsequent attempt to cover up are comparatively small potatoes. That said, and as despicable as I consider both men to be, they were (and Kissinger may still be) actually useful to the nation in foreign affairs. Not indispensable, to be sure, but useful. One would have a hard time making that case for Trump.

However, the law doesn't lose whatever credibility it putatively has when prosecutors choose not to prosecute. Admittedly, concern about the mob is not the best reason not to prosecute Trump, but it's a reason, and there is nothing a federal prosecutor can do that would not be perceived by said mob as grotesquely partisan, further validating their delusions. Which is why however hilarious I think it would be if Biden tapped Hillary Clinton to serve as AG, the better angels of my nature convince me it's not worth the lulz.

Again, however, there's simply no way the federal government can stop state prosecutors or civilian plaintiffs from taking whatever shots at Trump and his minions they want and that's a good thing; that's, in fact, the rule of law.

I mean, if you believe that anything at all is likely to set off some Trumpsters to the point of possible violence -- and I certainly wouldn't rule out that possibility -- then you want to do damage control. The feds =/= state prosecutors =/= civilian plaintiffs. Wholesale riots across the nation are far less likely in the state or civil scenario than a federal prosecution.

As far as respect for the rule of law goes, well, there will be absolutely no bipartisan effort to rein in the presidency nor will Congress awaken from its usual stupor and start doing its own job and the judiciary's commitment to equal justice under law permits both rich and poor alike to retain $2000/hour criminal lawyers, so I don't know who you think is kidding whom here.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Separate from whether it is wise to pursue charges, what are the things you think Trump could most plausibly be charged for?
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D.A. Ridgely
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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If you're asking me, I'd start with the Mueller Report on obstruction of justice. Trump's blatant emoluments/bribery/quid pro quo behavior probably rises to criminality but pay-to-play is how every administration works, so I'd probably give it a pass. Campaign finance violations, maybe, but I'm not sure there should be campaign finance laws in the first place. Intentional violation of the Anti-deficiency Act, but no one but people like me understand it. Finally, it wouldn't surprise me if there was enough probable cause to suspect conspiracy to defraud the U.S.; we'll know better when forensic specialists start sorting through all the evidence Trump is busily trying to destroy as I write this.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Either way I think the decision needs to be initiated further down the chain even from AG, with the AG having the option to veto if they think it's basically anything but a 95% chance of a win.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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D.A. Ridgely wrote: 18 Nov 2020, 12:47 If you're asking me, I'd start with the Mueller Report on obstruction of justice. Trump's blatant emoluments/bribery/quid pro quo behavior probably rises to criminality but pay-to-play is how every administration works, so I'd probably give it a pass. Campaign finance violations, maybe, but I'm not sure there should be campaign finance laws in the first place. Intentional violation of the Anti-deficiency Act, but no one but people like me understand it. Finally, it wouldn't surprise me if there was enough probable cause to suspect conspiracy to defraud the U.S.; we'll know better when forensic specialists start sorting through all the evidence Trump is busily trying to destroy as I write this.
There's also election tampering.

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump ... 55e7af7031

I'm told that this law might be relevant: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/595#
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