Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Jennifer
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Jennifer »

Hugh Akston wrote:
22 Jun 2020, 12:08
Warren wrote:
22 Jun 2020, 11:58
Mo wrote:
22 Jun 2020, 09:30
We’ve had states with 100% mail in voting for decades without incident.
Wait what?
Oregon has been all-mail voting since 2000.
[Googles] Hmm. Oregon has two senators (like all states), and five representatives in Congress, and according to govtrack.us, all of them except one representative are Democrats. Voting which leads to Democrats taking office is EXACTLY the type of fraudulent voting the GOP has been assiduously working to eradicate.
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Hugh Akston
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Hugh Akston »

John Oliver made a point during his segment on voting that retail voter impersonation—which is specifically the issue that Team Red and Trump are focusing on with voter ID and mail-in ballots—is a high-effort, high-risk, low-reward approach to rigging an election. He likened it to forging a Bed Bath & Beyond coupon.

Motivated bad actors would be better off attacking elections at the point of ballot verification and vote counting, which is where most election manipulation occurs historically and is certainly not confined to mail-in ballots.
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JasonL
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by JasonL »

Thanks! I'm certainly open, and it does depend on in the process risk biz what you'd call the control environment. I worry about a set of controls designed for small X falsification attempts and how it handles large X. This is a big part of my business and my job in figuring out processes. So, for example there's a regime where "Martha double signs the submission" is perfectly adequate, but that will not work at 10x martha's normal load. That's just an example.

ETA: Standing in line being slow and wasteful is a primary control on the input of bad votes that would then have to be detected. Paper allows for multiplication of inputs and electronic submission outside of authentication protocols allows an exponent of inputs. I think I like electronic with authentication like multi factor way more than paper, but I'm trying to decide if I like paper worse or better than in person. It being annoying is a real control.

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Highway
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Highway »

Jennifer wrote:
22 Jun 2020, 12:36
JasonL wrote:
22 Jun 2020, 10:15
Mo wrote:
22 Jun 2020, 09:30
We’ve had states with 100% mail in voting for decades without incident. Why would now be different?
Do you know how they validate voters?
Jeff and I did a mail-in vote for the recent primary (in Georgia); the ballots were mailed to our house, then we sent them back in envelopes which had our names pre-printed on them, and we had to sign the envelope before returning it.

Where validation is concerned, validating those mail-in votes would be far easier, if necessary, than validating the in-person voting option of easy-to-hack electronic touch screens which leave no paper trail. If Trump and the GOP were actually worried about legit voter fraud (rather than worried about voters not choosing them), they'd worry about the electronic machines more than the paper mailings.
You should leave out the "leave no paper trail" caveat. There is no paper trail from a touch-screen voting machine that is any more secure than the machine. If the machine can be hacked, then any output that it generates can be hacked as well, and unless each voter is verifying the paper output in the same language that any subsequent vote recounted from that paper output is then going to be used, it is meaningless.

Touch-screen voting machines were an abomination for a transparent electoral system.
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thoreau
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by thoreau »

Highway wrote:
22 Jun 2020, 14:12
Touch-screen voting machines were an abomination for a transparent electoral system.
This.
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Hugh Akston
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Hugh Akston »

JasonL wrote:
22 Jun 2020, 14:01
Thanks! I'm certainly open, and it does depend on in the process risk biz what you'd call the control environment. I worry about a set of controls designed for small X falsification attempts and how it handles large X. This is a big part of my business and my job in figuring out processes. So, for example there's a regime where "Martha double signs the submission" is perfectly adequate, but that will not work at 10x martha's normal load. That's just an example.

ETA: Standing in line being slow and wasteful is a primary control on the input of bad votes that would then have to be detected. Paper allows for multiplication of inputs and electronic submission outside of authentication protocols allows an exponent of inputs. I think I like electronic with authentication like multi factor way more than paper, but I'm trying to decide if I like paper worse or better than in person. It being annoying is a real control.
Identity security (my industry) really isn't where it needs to be to allow secure and transparent elections. Identity providers are pretty good at securing the transaction/verification process, but the identities themselves are set and maintained and secured by organizations, and there are a lot of very dumb ways into those databases. That's why big data breaches are a news cycle regular. So at the moment electronic voting (even with multi-factor authentication) is not a great option.

I think the analogness of mail-in ballots is another control on fraud attempts. Designing a fake that can fool the scanners is time-consuming and printing and posting them en masse is costly. I'm not sure what kind of controls are in place or what kind of stress tests they have endured against DDoS-style attacks.

Another control feature is the float time after ballot reciept to investigate and certify results. In-person ballot-box type elections are expected to announce results the day of, where mail-ins have a longer window.
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Mo
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Mo »

JasonL wrote:
22 Jun 2020, 14:01
ETA: Standing in line being slow and wasteful is a primary control on the input of bad votes that would then have to be detected.
It’s also a way to filter out people that have hourly jobs and can’t afford to take time off.

Since mail in ballots have unique barcodes linked to the voters, you can’t stuff the ballots credibly. Also, you can sample ballots for signature matches and if something seems fishy you can do deeper dive validations.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by lunchstealer »

Hugh Akston wrote:
22 Jun 2020, 14:42
JasonL wrote:
22 Jun 2020, 14:01
Thanks! I'm certainly open, and it does depend on in the process risk biz what you'd call the control environment. I worry about a set of controls designed for small X falsification attempts and how it handles large X. This is a big part of my business and my job in figuring out processes. So, for example there's a regime where "Martha double signs the submission" is perfectly adequate, but that will not work at 10x martha's normal load. That's just an example.

ETA: Standing in line being slow and wasteful is a primary control on the input of bad votes that would then have to be detected. Paper allows for multiplication of inputs and electronic submission outside of authentication protocols allows an exponent of inputs. I think I like electronic with authentication like multi factor way more than paper, but I'm trying to decide if I like paper worse or better than in person. It being annoying is a real control.
Identity security (my industry) really isn't where it needs to be to allow secure and transparent elections. Identity providers are pretty good at securing the transaction/verification process, but the identities themselves are set and maintained and secured by organizations, and there are a lot of very dumb ways into those databases. That's why big data breaches are a news cycle regular. So at the moment electronic voting (even with multi-factor authentication) is not a great option.

I think the analogness of mail-in ballots is another control on fraud attempts. Designing a fake that can fool the scanners is time-consuming and printing and posting them en masse is costly. I'm not sure what kind of controls are in place or what kind of stress tests they have endured against DDoS-style attacks.

Another control feature is the float time after ballot reciept to investigate and certify results. In-person ballot-box type elections are expected to announce results the day of, where mail-ins have a longer window.
Colorado only counts votes that arrive by mail on or before election day, and they start announcing heavily on something like the Thursday before the election that if you haven't already mailed in your ballot, don't do it now, but find a dropbox location and drop them off by hand. At least in greater Denver, there are plenty and they can be handled via drive-through with little fuss, even at 6:30 PM on election day in 2018. IIRC, results typically come back that evening.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by thoreau »

Fox News own polling has Biden ahead of Trump by 1 point in TX: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... point-race

Fox also has Biden ahead by 2 in Georgia: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... in-georgia

And Fox has Biden ahead by 9 in Florida: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... ng-seniors

I don't want to get my hopes up, but if even Trump's own personal network has Biden ahead, maybe it's not crazy to think that Biden will win.
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Painboy
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Painboy »

thoreau wrote:
25 Jun 2020, 18:46
Fox News own polling has Biden ahead of Trump by 1 point in TX: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... point-race

Fox also has Biden ahead by 2 in Georgia: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... in-georgia

And Fox has Biden ahead by 9 in Florida: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... ng-seniors

I don't want to get my hopes up, but if even Trump's own personal network has Biden ahead, maybe it's not crazy to think that Biden will win.
As strange as it may seem Fox's polling unit, despite the rest of it's network nonsense, is actually a well respected outfit.

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Kolohe
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Kolohe »

And seems to always run with a slight Dem/liberal lean in polling.

But generates social media buzz about once a month for the past 3 years, ‘omg, even Fox News has Trump unpopular/losing’
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by lunchstealer »

Painboy wrote:
25 Jun 2020, 19:48
thoreau wrote:
25 Jun 2020, 18:46
Fox News own polling has Biden ahead of Trump by 1 point in TX: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... point-race

Fox also has Biden ahead by 2 in Georgia: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... in-georgia

And Fox has Biden ahead by 9 in Florida: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-ne ... ng-seniors

I don't want to get my hopes up, but if even Trump's own personal network has Biden ahead, maybe it's not crazy to think that Biden will win.
As strange as it may seem Fox's polling unit, despite the rest of it's network nonsense, is actually a well respected outfit.
The farther you get from the talking head component the better Fox becomes.
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Hugh Akston
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Guys I don't think Donald Trump wants to be president anymore
But presented the chance Thursday -- host Sean Hannity asked Trump to name his "top priority items for a second term" -- Trump became distracted with old grievances and never ultimately named a single goal.
From there, Trump launched into an extended attack on Bolton, never returning to the theme of his second term. Later, Hannity again raised the notion of a second term, only to have Trump respond with criticism of the "planeloads of cash" he alleged were sent to Iran by the Obama administration.
Elsewhere in the town hall, Trump seemed to refer to a Biden presidency as inevitable -- even as he insisted his rival would "destroy our country."
"I mean, the man can't speak," Trump said. "And he's going to be your president because some people don't love me, maybe."
Consumed with what he views as unfair coverage of his administration, Trump hasn't articulated a new plan to contain the spreading virus and last spoke to his top public health advisers weeks ago, those advisers said this week. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country's leading infectious disease specialist, last spoke with Trump three weeks ago. Trump tweeted a swipe at Fauci this week, citing his high approval ratings.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Warren »

Hugh Akston wrote:
26 Jun 2020, 14:44
Guys I don't think Donald Trump wants to be president anymore
Anymore? What makes you think he ever did?
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Mo
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Mo »

I think he liked the grift, the crimes and getting paid by the federal government to play golf. Covid means he can’t shake down foreign emissaries for cash at Trump properties or play golf.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Hugh Akston »

Mo wrote:
26 Jun 2020, 14:55
I think he liked the grift, the crimes and getting paid by the federal government to play golf. Covid means he can’t shake down foreign emissaries for cash at Trump properties or play golf.
He also likes the ceremonial/showbiz aspects of it. If being president were just about airing your personal gripes in front of 40,000 hooting yokels he'd never leave office.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by nicole »

Without claiming this answers the question that was asked at all, I don't really see how you really get from this to what CNN reported. I mean, I do of course.

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Hugh Akston
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Hugh Akston »

Every word of that is in the CNN piece. The point is that a very friendly interviewer twice lobbed the same softball that any presidential candidate should be eager to hit, and Trump just stood in the box complaining that the ump called a strike even though he didn't swing.
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Hugh Akston
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Hugh Akston »



bonus:
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Warren »

Hmmmm.... I'm sure there's a "Three hour tour" joke in there.
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