Calling 2020 for Entropy

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Aresen
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Aresen » 27 Mar 2018, 16:00

Tu quoque
And the apotheosis of modern media deployment came with U.S. President Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. Building on what they’d done in 2008, the campaign created a digital operation that, in the Guardian’s description, “combines a unified database on millions of Americans with the power of Facebook to target individual voters to a degree never achieved before.”

Sasha Issenberg wrote an admiring three-part series about this for the MIT Technology Review in December 2012. Describing the Obama campaign’s technological prowess at data mining and targeting, Issenberg had this to say:

“But underneath all that were scores describing particular voters: a new political currency that predicted the behaviour of individual humans. The campaign didn’t just know who you were; it knew exactly how it could turn you into the type of person it wanted you to be.”

Granted, the Obama campaign had consent from at least some of the Facebook users. However, there’s a question as to whether they exceeded their data gathering remit.

Carol Davidsen was the Obama for America 2012 director of integration and data analytics. Recently, she observed how “Facebook was surprised we were able to suck out the whole social graph, but they didn’t stop us once they realized that was what we were doing.”

As to why Facebook didn’t intervene, Davidsen notes that when they came to the office after the election, they “were very candid that they allowed us to do things they wouldn’t have allowed someone else to do because they were on our side.”

Here’s the bottom line:

If you’re going to be credibly outraged at information being used to influence voting behaviour, it’s best to be consistent in your outrage. It can’t really be smart when your guy does it and villainous when the other guy follows suit.

What’s creepy behaviour for the goose is similarly creepy for the gander.
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Warren
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Warren » 14 Nov 2018, 11:30

Over on the book of faces, Stevo the Absent made the following comment:
Stevo Darkly wrote: A few weeks ago I made two predictions about the 2020 elections:

PREDICTION 1:

All that will be needed to defeat Trump is a challenger who:

a. Can speak in complete, reasonably articulate sentences.
b. Has read a book in the past year.
c. Does not openly refer to HIMSELF/HERSELF as a socialist, communist, fascist or Nazi
d. Has not raped anybody lately, AND
e. Is not Hillary Clinton.

PREDICTION 2:

Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats will succeed in selecting and running a challenger who meets all of these requirements.
I think he's right, especially about the Democrats, but it got me thinking. Could a Republican challenge Trump in 2020 ala Reagan 1976?
It could yield a similar result. A strong primary challenge could weaken Trump in the general so that whatever wackadoodle the D's run actually wins. Followed by a disastrous term making the the political landscape ripe for a new Republican faction to sweep into Washington. In my fantasies that new wave is primarily concerned with fiscal discipline.
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Warren
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Warren » 14 Nov 2018, 11:33

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Sorry. I couldn't keep a straight face.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Taktix® » 14 Nov 2018, 15:01

I sure hope these reports of Hillary throwing her pantsuit into the ring for 2020 are BS or some sort of trial balloon by a staffer designed to convince her NOT to run, because if the Dems nominate her, they will deserve every fleck of shit Trump will throw at them after he curb-stomps her in the general election.

Also, who's palatable from a pro-liberty perspective and also has a shot at beating Trump? Beto? Gilibrand?
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by JD » 14 Nov 2018, 15:22

I really don't get the calls for Beto to run for President. It seems like such an example of "failing upwards", and (yet another) example of Blues failing to understand that what you need in the general election is not someone who appeals to you, but someone who appeals to people who aren't you.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Jadagul » 14 Nov 2018, 15:56

It's not really accurate to call Beto's run a failure. Sure, he lost, but he didn't fail. He did better in Texas than any Democrat has done in decades, and he helped lead a massive shift in favor of Democrats in smaller and more local races.

A close loss in a red state is a good credential, not a bad one.

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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Warren » 14 Nov 2018, 16:06

Beto failed in exactly the way Hillary failed: Epically to a truly revolting opponent.
Taktix® wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 15:01
I sure hope these reports of Hillary throwing her pantsuit into the ring for 2020 are BS or some sort of trial balloon by a staffer designed to convince her NOT to run, because if the Dems nominate her, they will deserve every fleck of shit Trump will throw at them after he curb-stomps her in the general election.
Best of all possible worlds. And hilarious.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by thoreau » 14 Nov 2018, 16:08

Jadagul wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 15:56
It's not really accurate to call Beto's run a failure. Sure, he lost, but he didn't fail. He did better in Texas than any Democrat has done in decades, and he helped lead a massive shift in favor of Democrats in smaller and more local races.

A close loss in a red state is a good credential, not a bad one.
Yes, but a win anywhere is a better credential than a loss. A winner is, you know, a winner. And they've held the office that they won.

Full credit to Beto, he had a hell of a second place run, but it was still second place.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by JD » 14 Nov 2018, 16:37

Jadagul wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 15:56
It's not really accurate to call Beto's run a failure. Sure, he lost, but he didn't fail. He did better in Texas than any Democrat has done in decades, and he helped lead a massive shift in favor of Democrats in smaller and more local races.

A close loss in a red state is a good credential, not a bad one.
Look, I like Beto about as much as I like any politician. But when you can't carry your own state, that looks like a failure. There are no prizes for second place.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by JasonL » 14 Nov 2018, 16:40

The Hillary / Cruz compare seems apt. He did great as a loser against the least popular politician in america ish.

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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Jadagul » 14 Nov 2018, 16:45

thoreau wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 16:08
Jadagul wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 15:56
It's not really accurate to call Beto's run a failure. Sure, he lost, but he didn't fail. He did better in Texas than any Democrat has done in decades, and he helped lead a massive shift in favor of Democrats in smaller and more local races.

A close loss in a red state is a good credential, not a bad one.
Yes, but a win anywhere is a better credential than a loss. A winner is, you know, a winner. And they've held the office that they won.

Full credit to Beto, he had a hell of a second place run, but it was still second place.
Winning is a better credential than a loss, but it doesn't say much more about how good you are as a candidate. Winning by half a point and losing by half a point carry basically the same information about your quality as a candidate from a statistical point of view. (I'd say the same thing about Gillum: he's going to lose Florida by half a point and that's going to be positive and impressive).
JD wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 16:37
Jadagul wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 15:56
It's not really accurate to call Beto's run a failure. Sure, he lost, but he didn't fail. He did better in Texas than any Democrat has done in decades, and he helped lead a massive shift in favor of Democrats in smaller and more local races.

A close loss in a red state is a good credential, not a bad one.
Look, I like Beto about as much as I like any politician. But when you can't carry your own state, that looks like a failure. There are no prizes for second place.
You're wildly underrating partisanship. Texas has historically been like +18 R. (Though it's probably trending D overall, so maybe we should treat it as more like +14 or +10 R). Beto kept it to +3. That's really impressive.

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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by thoreau » 14 Nov 2018, 17:11

Jadagul wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 16:45
Winning is a better credential than a loss, but it doesn't say much more about how good you are as a candidate. Winning by half a point and losing by half a point carry basically the same information about your quality as a candidate from a statistical point of view.
You sound like Human Hemorrhoid talking about some mediocre student that he has to insist has PhD potential.


Jadagul wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 16:45
(I'd say the same thing about Gillum: he's going to lose Florida by half a point and that's going to be positive and impressive).
What's so impressive about getting achingly close to 50% in a state that's infamous for close elections?
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Kwix » 14 Nov 2018, 18:16

Jadagul wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 16:45
Winning is a better credential than a loss, but it doesn't say much more about how good you are as a candidate. Winning by half a point and losing by half a point carry basically the same information about your quality as a candidate from a statistical point of view. (I'd say the same thing about Gillum: he's going to lose Florida by half a point and that's going to be positive and impressive).
Market failure here but people vote on gut reactions and instincts not reasoned stances and stats.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Taktix® » 14 Nov 2018, 18:50

Welp, looks like Avenatti is out of the running: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/ ... ute-991268

Though I suppose this doesn't disqualify him for running for the GOP...
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Eric the .5b » 14 Nov 2018, 19:04

Jadagul wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 16:45
You're wildly underrating partisanship. Texas has historically been like +18 R. (Though it's probably trending D overall, so maybe we should treat it as more like +14 or +10 R). Beto kept it to +3. That's really impressive.
Yes, Beto did extremely well in a hostile electoral situation.
thoreau wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 17:11
You sound like Human Hemorrhoid talking about some mediocre student that he has to insist has PhD potential.
Michael Bay can suck my bygone left nut.

Just sticking with the last run of presidents who got elected? Trump dropped out of the presidential race in 2000 and merely made noises about possibly running in 2004 and in 2011. Obama, GWB, and Clinton all failed their attempts to get into the US House. Obama didn't even make it through the primary and then slunk back to the Illinois Senate, while Clinton also lost his first re-election attempt as governor in 1980. GHWB lost two runs at the US Senate as a Red in Texas, then failed to get the Team Red nomination in 1980. And, of course, Reagan failed in his attempt to primary Gerald Ford in 1976.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by lunchstealer » 14 Nov 2018, 20:06

Warren wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 16:06
Beto failed in exactly the way Hillary failed: Epically to a truly revolting opponent.
That's the dumbest analysis Hillary ran a lackluster campaign, ignoring fundamentals, had no charisma, and lost to an eminently beatable candidate in a country that has a pretty even balance of Team Reds and Team Blues because her voters stayed home in droves. Beto ran a heavy duty travel-to-every-county campaign that got a lot of people out who hadn't voted before (18-29 participation was through the roof compared to 2014) and lost by an order of magnitude less than just about any state-wide donk in the past two decades.

That's not an epic fail. Quit trying to be edgy about every single bit of Trump opposition.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by lunchstealer » 14 Nov 2018, 20:11

Jadagul wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 16:45
(I'd say the same thing about Gillum: he's going to lose Florida by half a point and that's going to be positive and impressive).
Florida isn't Texas. Losing by a half a point to a shitty Red in Florida is like losing to a shitty Red by ten points in Texas. Close second against incredible odds is one thing - very winning-adjacent. Close second on an even playing field means you're no better than your opponent, and DeSantis was a shitshow.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Warren » 14 Nov 2018, 20:51

lunchstealer wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 20:06
Warren wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 16:06
Beto failed in exactly the way Hillary failed: Epically to a truly revolting opponent.
That's the dumbest analysis Hillary ran a lackluster campaign, ignoring fundamentals, had no charisma, and lost to an eminently beatable candidate in a country that has a pretty even balance of Team Reds and Team Blues because her voters stayed home in droves. Beto ran a heavy duty travel-to-every-county campaign that got a lot of people out who hadn't voted before (18-29 participation was through the roof compared to 2014) and lost by an order of magnitude less than just about any state-wide donk in the past two decades.

That's not an epic fail. Quit trying to be edgy about every single bit of Trump opposition.
Actually, that was Trump opposition.
You may be right about Beto. Even so, Cruz is a shit sandwich.
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Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Mo » 14 Nov 2018, 21:09

Lincoln was edgy in the House and lost a Senate campaign before entering the White House. Don’t @ me
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by lunchstealer » 14 Nov 2018, 21:19

Warren wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 20:51
You may be right about Beto. Even so, Cruz is a shit sandwich.
Yeah, that puts a thumb on the scale in Beto's favor where there are two thumbs in Cruz's favor, so yeah, one shouldn't read too much into that. If Beto'd managed that showing against Cornyn, it'd be a different calculus, to be sure.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Jennifer » 14 Nov 2018, 21:21

Whoever DOES get the Dem nod in 2020, I hope like hell it's not Kamala Harris.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Aresen » 14 Nov 2018, 21:35

Jennifer wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 21:21
Whoever DOES get the Dem nod in 2020, I hope like hell it's not Kamala Harris.
In the 1960s and 1970s, there was a lot of 'New York Hate' that carried over to any candidate from that state. I think California has stepped into the 'State that Everybody Hates' slot in that regard. I could see Harris getting the VP slot.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Jadagul » 14 Nov 2018, 21:38

lunchstealer wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 20:11
Jadagul wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 16:45
(I'd say the same thing about Gillum: he's going to lose Florida by half a point and that's going to be positive and impressive).
Florida isn't Texas. Losing by a half a point to a shitty Red in Florida is like losing to a shitty Red by ten points in Texas. Close second against incredible odds is one thing - very winning-adjacent. Close second on an even playing field means you're no better than your opponent, and DeSantis was a shitshow.
Gillum is much less impressive than Beto. But losing by half a point is not substantially less impressive than winning by half a point. If you think "barely beating DeSantis" wouldn't have been impressive, then you shouldn't think barely losing would be either. But if you'd have been impressed by a half-point win, you should be nearly as impressed by a half-point loss.

Beto is certainly more impressive than Gillum, though, since Florida is mildly red and Texas is moderately-to-highly red.

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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Jennifer » 14 Nov 2018, 21:39

Aresen wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 21:35
Jennifer wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 21:21
Whoever DOES get the Dem nod in 2020, I hope like hell it's not Kamala Harris.
In the 1960s and 1970s, there was a lot of 'New York Hate' that carried over to any candidate from that state. I think California has stepped into the 'State that Everybody Hates' slot in that regard. I could see Harris getting the VP slot.
My dislike for Harris has nothing to do with her being from California.
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Re: Calling 2020 for Entropy

Post by Eric the .5b » 14 Nov 2018, 21:41

Mo wrote:
14 Nov 2018, 21:09
Lincoln was edgy in the House and lost a Senate campaign before entering the White House. Don’t @ me
(Emphasis added.) What does that mean?
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