400 ppm

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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Highway » 05 Jul 2017, 07:38

Main method: you get out of your AV when it is not in the parking space. Then it parks itself in a space without as much room.

Method 2, which is much more "connected everything" is that your car goes and parks in a fairly non accessible location. Maybe even in a scheme using First in first out or something like valets do.

This isn't just suburb stuff.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Sandy » 05 Jul 2017, 09:10

Highway wrote:Main method: you get out of your AV when it is not in the parking space. Then it parks itself in a space without as much room.

Method 2, which is much more "connected everything" is that your car goes and parks in a fairly non accessible location. Maybe even in a scheme using First in first out or something like valets do.

This isn't just suburb stuff.
Method 1 seems like you're going to need more valet-type space for any reasonably-trafficked retail (grocery, Target, etc.). I could see method 2 requiring a fair amount of coordination when someone exits quickly after not finding what they want/being thrown out by security/offended by a bathroom, etc.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Highway » 05 Jul 2017, 09:36

Well, it's not really the kind of thing that would be chosen capriciously. Method 1 wouldn't need more space, because it's all coming out of existing space. It's not assuming an increase in total users, just a change in how those users arrive.

Method 2 would be something that would be more for workplaces. You know when you're planning on leaving, so the system can deal with that. It can also deal with an emergency, having other cars move as necessary.

There will be significant changes to design when AVs are more widely adopted. At least there should be, because it will be better for everyone. That's not always sufficient impetus, but I think that my industry, as conservative as it is, will still welcome the chance to save money and impacts.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Mo » 05 Jul 2017, 10:09

Sandy wrote:How would parking spaces be reduced? Do all self driving cars come with gull wing doors? Because I'm already struggling not to ding the car next to me in newer parking lots.
It would reduce parking the same way using shared cloud hardware reduces total hardware purchases. Instead of every center having parking built for the local peak, you need one area lot that has capacity for the area peak.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Highway » 05 Jul 2017, 10:39

This is one way, but not the only way.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Mo » 05 Jul 2017, 11:13

Highway wrote:This is one way, but not the only way.
But even in a single shopping center, there is way more parking than is needed for peaks because there needs to be parking by every store/restaurant. So parking in a single center still largely satisfies local peaks rather than center wide peaks.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Warren » 05 Jul 2017, 11:51

Sandy wrote:How would parking spaces be reduced? Do all self driving cars come with gull wing doors? Because I'm already struggling not to ding the car next to me in newer parking lots.
Because there's no reason to open the door when it's parked. People are picked up and dropped off at the door. No one should be in the car when it's parked.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by lunchstealer » 05 Jul 2017, 13:50

Sandy wrote:How would parking spaces be reduced? Do all self driving cars come with gull wing doors? Because I'm already struggling not to ding the car next to me in newer parking lots.
It lets you out at the door, then goes and parks six inches from the next self-driving car until you call for it.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Sandy » 05 Jul 2017, 15:04

I'm not sure I get it. Will twelve more people please reply with the same explanation?
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Jennifer » 05 Jul 2017, 16:16

Sandy wrote:I'm not sure I get it. Will twelve more people please reply with the same explanation?
People-driven cars must be parked far enough away from each other that there's sufficient room for their doors to open so people can get in and out. Self-driven cars will not need this extra space between them.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by lunchstealer » 05 Jul 2017, 16:26

Sandy wrote:I'm not sure I get it. Will twelve more people please reply with the same explanation?
Look, I didn't TELL you to post at the end of a page so it isn't obvious that others have already responded to you. You dug that little grave all on your own.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Aresen » 05 Jul 2017, 17:50

lunchstealer wrote:
Sandy wrote:How would parking spaces be reduced? Do all self driving cars come with gull wing doors? Because I'm already struggling not to ding the car next to me in newer parking lots.
It lets you out at the door, then goes and parks six inches from the next self-driving car until you call for it.
Jeebus. Who needs self driving cars for that? Guys with ratty pickups do that to me all the time.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Dangerman » 07 Jul 2017, 16:23

Parking lots have to be designed for many more cars than are there on average, and if the car that takes you to your destination then goes to move other people around, it doesn't need to park nearby and wait.

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Re: 400 ppm

Post by tr0g » 07 Jul 2017, 16:30

Dangerman wrote:Parking lots have to be designed for many more cars than are there on average, and if the car that takes you to your destination then goes to move other people around, it doesn't need to park nearby and wait.
Yeah, I don't give a shit about how or where my Uber driver parks. This assumes a pooled resource, though, like Uber for self-driving cars. If I own my autonomous vehicle, I still need it to park at the mall, though. The pooled resource model has to become more prevalent, which in Houston seems like a hell of a tough sell.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Dangerman » 07 Jul 2017, 16:34

Why would you want to own and be responsible for your AV? I'd submit that owning a self-driving car is different than having a fleet of AVs. I can envision tiered subscription models where car makers offer the user different car models and availability at different prices to accommodate preferences.

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Re: 400 ppm

Post by tr0g » 07 Jul 2017, 17:04

Dangerman wrote:Why would you want to own and be responsible for your AV? I'd submit that owning a self-driving car is different than having a fleet of AVs. I can envision tiered subscription models where car makers offer the user different car models and availability at different prices to accommodate preferences.
Same reason I own a car instead of ubering everywhere or taking the bus? I don't have to consider any network effects or availability issues. I want to go somewhere, I get in the car and go.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by lunchstealer » 07 Jul 2017, 17:07

tr0g wrote:
Dangerman wrote:Why would you want to own and be responsible for your AV? I'd submit that owning a self-driving car is different than having a fleet of AVs. I can envision tiered subscription models where car makers offer the user different car models and availability at different prices to accommodate preferences.
Same reason I own a car instead of ubering everywhere or taking the bus? I don't have to consider any network effects or availability issues. I want to go somewhere, I get in the car and go.
You have to consider them some, because if you want to get there by 5:30PM assume it's going to take 1.5-3x as long as at 5:30AM.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Highway » 07 Jul 2017, 17:12

There are going to be both models. As population density falls off, the shared fleet will become untenable due to deadheading distances and lack of people to use it. And there will be plenty of people who decide that their own usage is high enough to warrant spending money to have their own vehicle, no matter where they live.

I honestly think that a lot of the costs associated with transport will go way down. Costs for insuring vehicles will likely plummet when there's majority adoption of AVs. Many of them will be BEVs, so fuel costs will also go down.

I will note, tho, that many parking lots are designed based on not just total space requirements. Some are based on high value tenants demands. And some are minimums based on zoning. You really can't say that there is a single reason for oversized parking lots.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 08 Jul 2017, 18:41

Highway wrote:There are going to be both models. As population density falls off, the shared fleet will become untenable due to deadheading distances and lack of people to use it. And there will be plenty of people who decide that their own usage is high enough to warrant spending money to have their own vehicle, no matter where they live.

I honestly think that a lot of the costs associated with transport will go way down. Costs for insuring vehicles will likely plummet when there's majority adoption of AVs. Many of them will be BEVs, so fuel costs will also go down.

I will note, tho, that many parking lots are designed based on not just total space requirements. Some are based on high value tenants demands. And some are minimums based on zoning. You really can't say that there is a single reason for oversized parking lots.
If AVs become prevalent, I doubt most would be able to afford the insurance costs of driving. It could also become illegal to drive yourself.

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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Highway » 08 Jul 2017, 20:37

It could (become illegal). I mean that the insurance as a part of vehicle ownership would plummet. I think that even insurance costs for those people who don't have an AV will go down, because there will be much less chance that someone will run into you. If someone still manages to have a crash under those conditions, then insurance for THEM for non-AV vehicles will go way up. But then they could get an AV and go back to cheap insurance.

I don't know if it'll be that quick to be illegal tho. Maybe after a quarter century of proven AVs. It's hard to tell people "You must buy a new car." But even then, I think that there will be niche vehicles that people still drive. The benefits of even minority AV adoption are going to be huge even for those who don't have them, similar to herd immunity for vaccines. And if there's someone who intentionally drives like a maniac... we have that now. Someone could go on a demolition derby spree on the freeway right now. It doesn't happen much. I really don't see wholesale changes to roadways that make them incompatible with the cars we have now coming, not with the main push of AVs being "Let's make AVs that work on the roads we have." After wider adoption, some things will change. I'm sure signs would definitely change, and some configurations would change, but nothing that would make roads unusable for cars that we have now.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Jennifer » 08 Jul 2017, 21:04

Highway wrote: I don't know if it'll be that quick to be illegal tho. Maybe after a quarter century of proven AVs. It's hard to tell people "You must buy a new car." But even then, I think that there will be niche vehicles that people still drive.
I suspect that personally driven cars will become similar to what horse-drawn vehicles are now. I recall seeing an online gallery of late-19th century French imaginings of what The Future (our present, or recent past) would be like -- of course most predictions were completely wrong, but one they got spot-on was that in The Future, the average person would go about their regular day without ever seeing a single horse or horse-drawn vehicle; if you wanted to see or ride horses, you'd have to go out of your way to do so, at a zoo or a specialized horse-riding range. And in our future -- possibly even within my life and yours -- it may well be that if you want to drive a car yourself, you have to go to a specialized Driving Range to do so.

In our real history, once horseless carriages stopped being "newfangled toys for rich people" and started becoming something that ordinary middle-class people could afford, I suspect there was similar incredulousness to the idea "I dunno how likely it is that animal-powered transportation will become completely illegal on most roads -- surely not in my lifetime, anyway. It'll be hard to tel people 'You must abandon your old buggy or wagon, and buy a horseless vehicle.""
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Jennifer » 08 Jul 2017, 21:11

Further speculation: right now, in our human-driven car era, there are certain instances where you-the-driver get into an accident but are found not to be at fault because it is understood that no mere human has the reflexes and speed to avoid it -- say, you're driving down the road, at the speed limit, when suddenly some kid runs out in front of you from between parked cars, and you hit the kid but, again, it's not your fault because no person could've stopped in time. But in a world where self-driven cars are as available and affordable as human-driven, if not moreso, then under these circumstances, you might very well be found guilty of manslaughter or reckless endangerment or something: hey, you could have let a computer-driven car take you where you needed to go, and the computer could've stopped in time, but you arrogantly and selfishly chose to pilot the car yourself, with your mere human response times, and look what happened as a result....
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Highway » 08 Jul 2017, 21:11

Jennifer wrote:
Highway wrote: I don't know if it'll be that quick to be illegal tho. Maybe after a quarter century of proven AVs. It's hard to tell people "You must buy a new car." But even then, I think that there will be niche vehicles that people still drive.
I suspect that personally driven cars will become similar to what horse-drawn vehicles are now. I recall seeing an online gallery of late-19th century French imaginings of what The Future (our present, or recent past) would be like -- of course most predictions were completely wrong, but one they got spot-on was that in The Future, the average person would go about their regular day without ever seeing a single horse or horse-drawn vehicle; if you wanted to see or ride horses, you'd have to go out of your way to do so, at a zoo or a specialized horse-riding range. And in our future -- possibly even within my life and yours -- it may well be that if you want to drive a car yourself, you have to go to a specialized Driving Range to do so.

In our real history, once horseless carriages stopped being "newfangled toys for rich people" and started becoming something that ordinary middle-class people could afford, I suspect there was similar incredulousness to the idea "I dunno how likely it is that animal-powered transportation will become completely illegal on most roads -- surely not in my lifetime, anyway. It'll be hard to tel people 'You must abandon your old buggy or wagon, and buy a horseless vehicle.""
Well, the idea is incredulous because in fact horse-drawn carriages AREN'T illegal. People were never told "You have to abandon your horse and buggy." People still use them on public roads. Are there some roads they don't take them on? Sure. But that's not because they couldn't operate on the road. It's because the speed differential would make an unsafe situation. That won't be the case for AVs and "standard" cars. It's not like all AVs are going to operate at 140 MPH on freeways. There are significant barriers to increasing speeds much above what we already have on highways. Cars that operate just fine at 65 or 70 may not even be able to get to 85. And if they can, they use much more fuel and start getting lighter-feeling and less controllable. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if, as a general rule, urban and suburban freeway speeds drop to 60 or 55 with widespread adoption of AVs.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Highway » 08 Jul 2017, 21:19

Jennifer wrote:Further speculation: right now, in our human-driven car era, there are certain instances where you-the-driver get into an accident but are found not to be at fault because it is understood that no mere human has the reflexes and speed to avoid it -- say, you're driving down the road, at the speed limit, when suddenly some kid runs out in front of you from between parked cars, and you hit the kid but, again, it's not your fault because no person could've stopped in time. But in a world where self-driven cars are as available and affordable as human-driven, if not moreso, then under these circumstances, you might very well be found guilty of manslaughter or reckless endangerment or something: hey, you could have let a computer-driven car take you where you needed to go, and the computer could've stopped in time, but you arrogantly and selfishly chose to pilot the car yourself, with your mere human response times, and look what happened as a result....
While computers can certainly react somewhat faster, this example is something else I find rather ridiculous. An AV isn't going to be able to stop much faster than a human. And honestly, the reaction time after seeing the conflict isn't the issue. It's the fact that an AV will be looking everywhere all the time, as opposed to a human that can only look in one place at a time.

But with vehicle development going the way it is, even vehicles that aren't level 4 AVs will still have significant safety features like brake assist and emergency braking. So maybe there will be some guy in a 2013 Accord who gets in trouble in that scenario. But anyone driving any kind of late model car isn't going to be in that situation.

So yeah, yeah, if you really want to make the most extreme example ever, then you found it. But realistically, I don't see it ever happening.
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Re: 400 ppm

Post by Jennifer » 08 Jul 2017, 21:43

Highway wrote: Well, the idea is incredulous because in fact horse-drawn carriages AREN'T illegal. People were never told "You have to abandon your horse and buggy." People still use them on public roads. Are there some roads they don't take them on? Sure. But that's not because they couldn't operate on the road. It's because the speed differential would make an unsafe situation. That won't be the case for AVs and "standard" cars.
WIth horses, the speed differential makes it unsafe for the person on the horse: IOW, if you take a horse on a regular car-road, you are in extra danger, but people in cars generally are not. But with self-driven vs. human-driven cars (once it's accepted that self-driving cars are safer than human-driven), the personally-driving person is increasing the risk for everyone else on the road. I suspect -- especially given how many "for your own ostensible good" laws we have already (everything from "no using certain drugs" to "you MUST wear a seatbelt"), the laws will be even harsher for those seen to be putting other people at risk, not merely themselves.
So yeah, yeah, if you really want to make the most extreme example ever, then you found it. But realistically, I don't see it ever happening.
I didn't realize "kids running out from between parked cars" or "America might have laws more punitive than necessary" were all that extreme, where hypotheticals are concerned. But one thing I do know -- both as a history geek and a science-fiction geek (including sci-fi of the past, where we-now were The Future) -- is that anytime significant technology changes happen, people don't simply use that technology to have "the same status quo as before, only far easier to achieve"; the status quo itself changes to become something that would've been impossible before. Like, in our automobile era, we don't simply have "the same lives we had in horse-n-buggy days, only easier because our vehicles move faster and you don't have to feed, water and brush down your horse after every trip, nor shovel horseshit out of your garage every day"; we live lifestyles that would've been literally impossible when horses were the only personal transportation option available. Indoor plumbing and hot water on demand did not result in people effortlessly settling for the historical "one bath per week" standards of cleanliness; we adopted new hygiene standards that were impossible before, unless you were very rich. Super-cheap textiles didn't result in people effortlessly settling for "You have the one outfit you wear every day, and maybe one additional set of clothes for dress-up occasions"; we acquired wardrobes far bigger and more varied than what people had before. Et cetera.

So when self-driven (actually, henceforth I'll say "robot cars," because self-driven can be confusing -- am I talking about a car that drives itself, or a car you drive yourself?) cars become a thing, I doubt the result will be "we live the same lives we do now, only easier because you can doze off or read a book while your cars drive itself, unless you want to handle the driving yourself" -- certain things will be completely different from the status quo we have now. And I do suspect one of those things is, if you want to have the experience of driving a car yourself, it won't be something where you can get on the same highway full of robot cars, or even the same residential street piloted by robot cars, only you personally do the driving. Instead, it'll be something you have to seek out: get in a robot car and have it take you to the driving range, where you have to sign all sorts of legal disclaimers and promises not to sue if you get hurt, before you get behind the wheel of an old-fashioned 2017 Chevy sedan and enjoy the old-fashioned experience of actually controlling the motor vehicle you're in.
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