Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

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Jennifer
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Jennifer » 19 Sep 2016, 18:48

Aresen wrote:
Jennifer wrote:FUCKLEDUCKS AND GODDAMMIT. Trending on Facebook this afternoon is the story that RNC chairman Reince Preibus is thinking of "penalizing" GOP members who refuse to endorse Trump this election. Which bodes very, very ill indeed for any notion that the Republicans will learn anything from this Trump debacle.
You are assuming that Trump is going to be a catastrophe for the GOP.

The polling numbers do not suggest that. The latest numbers are showing a gap of no more than 5% in the popular vote (a few are even showing him ahead).
This assumes that there is no preference-hiding among Trump supporters.

The 'debacle' may be that he gets elected.
I am concerned about that, but still find it hard to believe, for the demographic reasons I've mentioned before: Romney got a higher percentage of white voters than Reagan did back in the day, which would've spelled victory in the 80s but wasn't enough in 2012. And Romney's strategy was "focus on winning white voters whilst ignoring all others," compared to Trump's "focus on winning white voters whilst actively insulting and/or threatening all others." And for the 2016 election, the percentage of white voters relative to the rest will be about three percent lower than it was in 2012.

A night or two before the 2012 election, I made a prediction on Facebook which turned out to be true (though I'm not claiming psychic powers; I figured my prediction was pretty obvious): something to the effect of "Obama will win, but by a smaller margin than in 2008. Some states that went for Obama in '08 will go for Romney tomorrow, but no states that went for McCain in '08 will go for Obama."

Looking just at the states Obama won in 2012 (not 2008) ... I find it difficult to believe any will go for Trump this time.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Jennifer » 19 Sep 2016, 19:10

Another thought: North Carolina went for Obama in 08 and Romney in 12. But just within the past month or so, a federal court struck down NC's voter ID law, after determining that it was pretty explicitly targeted at black voters to keep them away from the polls. So, I daresay that increases the chance of North Carolina's electoral votes going back to the Democrat for this election.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Aresen » 19 Sep 2016, 19:30

Jennifer wrote:Looking just at the states Obama won in 2012 (not 2008) ... I find it difficult to believe any will go for Trump this time.
Obama had (has) his haters, but they were never as vocal as the anti-Hillary crowd - nor did they have as much reason to detest him.

Neither candidate in 2012 was as remotely detestable as the two major party candidates in 2016. (Which is why Johnson is flirting with 10% of the vote.) I think Clinton is marginally better than Trump and I am hoping she wins on the principle that the difference between 'bad' and 'worse' is much sharper than the difference between 'good' and 'bad.'

It is entirely possible that neither Trump nor Clinton would prove to be as bad as POTUS as we fear. It is also possible that either one could be worse than we fear. If I must fear the POTUS, I prefer someone whose statist views are known to a loose cannon.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Jennifer » 19 Sep 2016, 19:35

Aresen wrote:
Jennifer wrote:Looking just at the states Obama won in 2012 (not 2008) ... I find it difficult to believe any will go for Trump this time.
Obama had (has) his haters, but they were never as vocal as the anti-Hillary crowd - nor did they have as much reason to detest him.
But by the same token, Romney had his haters, but nowhere near as many as Trump. The latest polls show Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in formerly red-state Georgia ... and I daresay that's not because so many Georgians think Hillary is that wonderful, but because so many think Trump is that awful. Including me.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Mo » 19 Sep 2016, 19:56

I can see Iowa going for Trump.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Taktix® » 20 Sep 2016, 00:10

Wait, Reince Preibus? That's his real fucking name?
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by dhex » 20 Sep 2016, 14:17

Taktix® wrote:Wait, Reince Preibus? That's his real fucking name?
the best and most important possible response.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Mo » 24 Sep 2016, 20:14

So it looks like the GOP is shaping up to be the anti free trade party.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Shem » 24 Sep 2016, 21:08

Taktix® wrote:Wait, Reince Preibus? That's his real fucking name?
If you can get him to say it backwards, he'll be forced back into the 5th dimension for 90 days.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Jennifer » 18 Oct 2016, 15:59

At Slate, Jamelle Bouie offers a sadly plausible casefor why the post-Trump GOP will likely be the party of bigoted white ethno-nationalists for the foreseeable future -- namely, because that's the only group left in the party's big tent. Bouie traces the roots of the current GOP's problems not back to Reagan's "religious right" alliance, nor to Nixon's "Southern strategy," but back to Goldwater.

There was no mystery to black hostility for Goldwater. The Arizona senator rejected the moderate Republicanism of Dwight Eisenhower (and many black party members) in favor of a doctrinaire conservatism that closed all doors to government action in civil and economic life. Rather than a “dime store New Deal,” he promised small government, individual liberty, and states’ rights.

If Goldwater’s libertarian-style ideology drew worry from black Republicans—who believed the government should work to uplift black Americans through economic programs—then his “states’ rights” advocacy triggered outright alarm. Then as now, “states’ rights” was a clear sop to Southern reactionaries who opposed a robust federal role in civil rights. Worse, Goldwater disparaged the Republican effort to win over black citizens, a key swing vote in 1960 who, with a little more outreach, might have delivered the White House to Richard Nixon. ...

The result of Goldwater’s rhetoric and ideology was a historic rout with the black electorate. Just 6 percent of black voters cast ballots for the Arizona senator, an 81 percent drop from the last presidential race, when Nixon won 32 percent of black ballots. (And before Nixon, Eisenhower had won 39 percent of black voters in the 1956 election.) The repudiation of Goldwater would be the last step in a realignment of black Americans that had begun in the days of Franklin Roosevelt. From then on, the national Republican Party would struggle to crack double digits with black voters, despite the strength of traditional beliefs and practices among black communities, from religious practice to traditions of self-help and self-reliance. The reason was straightforward: Goldwater wasn’t just offensive; he articulated a vision of national life that would inevitably leave black Americans on the margins as second-class citizens, subject to the whims of segregationists and their allies. And if Goldwater didn’t see it, his explicitly anti-black allies did. As Rigueur writes, one black delegate to the 1964 Republican National Convention, George Fleming, “ran sobbing from the convention floor, crying that he was sick of being abused by Goldwater supporters. ‘They call you ‘nigger,’ push you and step on your feet,’ he muttered to reporters, wiping tears from his eyes. ‘I had to leave to keep my self-respect.’ ”

The ideology that Goldwater articulated and his party embraced would put the modern GOP fundamentally at odds with America’s people of color.

...

Black Republicans resisted Barry Goldwater and his brand of doctrinaire, ideological conservatism. They backed moderate candidates for president, built alliances, and formed organizations meant to roll back the rising tide of movement conservatism. In its manifesto, one of those organizations—the Negro Republican Organization—promised to “oppose any attempt to give the public any impression that Negro Republicans can unite behind Goldwater” and “make every effort to defeat the minority segment which appears determined to establish a lily-white Republican Party.”

The NRO lost its fight. That “minority segment” is now a majority, and in the past 10 years, it has finally established a lily-white Republican Party. It’s tempting to say that this GOP won’t survive—that it’s too homogeneous to succeed in a modern, diverse America. But if Donald Trump loses this election, he will likely lose by just a few points. With a nicer suit, steadier hands, and a better attitude, Trump—or at least Trumpism—could succeed nationally.

And for those Republicans who don’t want Trump or Trumpism? It may be too late. The thing about a lily-white Republican Party is that it doesn’t have the diversity it needs to resist white resentment and white rage. Republicans crossed a point of no return. Raw ethnonationalism is their future, even if they don’t want it.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by lunchstealer » 18 Oct 2016, 16:50

I think this overstates things a bit, because his a-few-points-loss is due to historic weakness on the Team Blue ticket, and the fact that history is in favor of the opposition party right now.

I do think we get one serious trump-alike, probably in 2020, otherwise in 2024. The Democrats just can't maintain for that long. However, after that first Trumpalike ends in disaster, I think something unforeseen either reforms the GOP or splinters the Democrats, bringing in the remaining sane Republicans and leaving the Trumpalike GOP as a fading whig party.

This analysis is ex-recto, so heaps of salt.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 18 Oct 2016, 16:53

The white chunk of the electorate is declining as a share by 3% per election (or was it decade?). So I doubt that there will ever be another chance for a Trump type to win.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Jennifer » 18 Oct 2016, 17:01

lunchstealer wrote: I do think we get one serious trump-alike, probably in 2020, otherwise in 2024. The Democrats just can't maintain for that long.
Problem is, the Democrats don't have to "maintain"; all they have to do is be less openly awful than the Republicans. To repeat something I've been saying for years now: the Democratic Party sucks but it won't improve until the Republicans do, because the Dems don't have to. Even if the GOP manages to return to the pre-Trump status quo, that's only a return to dog-whistle bigotry rather than sousaphone bands: "Hey, we don't all think Mexicans are rapists ... but we do support 'Papers, please' laws targeting Latinos. We don't boast about how kickass we are for sexually assaulting women ... but we do support using the power of the state to force sexually assaulted women to bear their attackers' offspring, and also enjoy sneering that no decent and virtuous woman would ever want to use contraception. We're still hoping to overturn Obergefell -- if we can't force gays back into the closet, the least we can do is forcibly dissolve their marriages! We don't openly support the disenfranchisement of black voters -- we do it on the downlow with racially targeted voter-ID laws, and then indignantly deny it when anybody calls us out." Etc., etc.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by lunchstealer » 18 Oct 2016, 17:11

Jennifer wrote:
lunchstealer wrote: I do think we get one serious trump-alike, probably in 2020, otherwise in 2024. The Democrats just can't maintain for that long.
Problem is, the Democrats don't have to "maintain"; all they have to do is be less openly awful than the Republicans. To repeat something I've been saying for years now: the Democratic Party sucks but it won't improve until the Republicans do, because the Dems don't have to. Even if the GOP manages to return to the pre-Trump status quo, that's only a return to dog-whistle bigotry rather than sousaphone bands: "Hey, we don't all think Mexicans are rapists ... but we do support 'Papers, please' laws targeting Latinos. We don't boast about how kickass we are for sexually assaulting women ... but we do support using the power of the state to force sexually assaulted women to bear their attackers' offspring, and also enjoy sneering that no decent and virtuous woman would ever want to use contraception. We're still hoping to overturn Obergefell -- if we can't force gays back into the closet, the least we can do is forcibly dissolve their marriages! We don't openly support the disenfranchisement of black voters -- we do it on the downlow with racially targeted voter-ID laws, and then indignantly deny it when anybody calls us out." Etc., etc.
One serious recession and one bad candidate, plus a Trump-alike in a good enough suit with just enough plausible deniability and I think you get shitty Team Blue turnout, really robust Team Red turnout, and a lot of undecideds and suburban women going to Team Red.

Remember, Trump barely gives a shit about gay marriage. That particular branch of the Kulturkampf is about over. If the Trumpalike just runs on anti-immigration and hard core nationalism and law-and-orderism, I think one gets in. Maybe not, but Team Blue can't dodge blame for an economic problem forever.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 18 Oct 2016, 17:17

Post election GOP is probably going to eat itself alive or lock down the status quo so hard that no Trump figure will ever be able to run again.

There is probably going to be a war between Ben Sasse (cleanest non-Trumper) and Tom Cotton (most plausible Trump II).
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Jennifer » 18 Oct 2016, 17:22

lunchstealer wrote:Remember, Trump barely gives a shit about gay marriage.
But Pence does, and so does the GOP's 2016 platform. And IIRC, before PussyGrabGate and similar scandals sucked up most of the media oxygen, I recall reading an article about how Trump planned to have Pence handle various presidential responsibilities -- Trump would be G.W. Bush to Pence's Cheney.
If the Trumpalike just runs on anti-immigration and hard core nationalism and law-and-orderism, I think one gets in. Maybe not, but Team Blue can't dodge blame for an economic problem forever.
But how bad does the economy have to get for people to vote for a politico whose platform is "Me and all my friends are personally responsible for what ails this country, and totally deserve to be scapegoated?" Romney got a higher percentage of the white vote than Reagan did back in the day -- enough to have won in the 1980s, but a loss in 2012. White voters alone aren't enough to win the presidency anymore, yet somehow, some way, the GOP still behaves as though non-white voters can be shat upon with electoral impunity.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Jennifer » 18 Oct 2016, 17:44

I'm reminded of something I read about the Romney campaign after the 47% video came out: "It's bad if voters don't like you, but it's worse if voters think you don't like them." Even pre-Trump, the GOP made it very plain that it does not like large swaths of the American populace.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by D.A. Ridgely » 18 Oct 2016, 22:53

Jennifer wrote:I'm reminded of something I read about the Romney campaign after the 47% video came out: "It's bad if voters don't like you, but it's worse if voters think you don't like them." Even pre-Trump, the GOP made it very plain that it does not like large swaths of the American populace.
But when it comes right down to it, who the hell does?

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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Aresen » 19 Oct 2016, 00:11

The assumption on this thread has been that Trump will lose November 8.

I think the damage to the GOP would be much worse if Trump won.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Sandy » 19 Oct 2016, 00:26

Aresen wrote:The assumption on this thread has been that Trump will lose November 8.

I think the damage to the GOP would be much worse if Trump won.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by lunchstealer » 19 Oct 2016, 11:01

cosign
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Jennifer » 19 Oct 2016, 13:21

Rick Perlstein, the "historian of modern conservatism" and author of Nixonland, thinks the post-Trump GOP will once again blame "insufficient conservatism" for Trump's loss:
Ideologically and strategically, how do you think Trump’s loss will be understood among Republicans?

I’m kind of famous for coming up with a little epigram, “Conservatism never fails. It is only failed.” I came up with this during my long experience of studying the right, and realizing that basically anything that is politically successful is kind of labeled conservatism. Any failure is wiped off the books in this bad faith utterance that well, of course it failed because it wasn’t conservative. Romney wasn’t conservative enough. McCain wasn’t conservative enough. “Bush wasn’t conservative,” you began to hear in 2004, when the wheels came off the bus with Iraq, and all the rest.

That’s what we’ll hear, “Of course, Trump lost. He wasn’t conservative.” That allows everyone else in the Republican Party, basically, to push the infamous reset button. I think a lot of what we saw in the last couple of weeks with Trump’s various former supporters jumping ship, ostensibly because of this grotesque tape and the rest, is all about setting up that next move in the chess game. Everyone who has paid any kind of attention knew that Trump was this kind of guy in the first place. I think what we’ll see is the Paul Ryans and the Ted Cruzes, jockeying for the position of King of Conservatism saying, “We need to wipe the slate clean and go back to Reagan.” The dilemma that raises is that Trump has raised energies in the Republican electorate that may not be able to be so easily contained.

-snip-

It seems like what you’re saying is that small-government Republican conservatism was never that popular and now that Trump has exposed that, we might get real change.

I wouldn’t say never that popular. I would say that the aspects that were most popular about it were the ones that a lot of the mainstream Republican leaders were most ambivalent about.

Such as?


The dog-whistle racism stuff. The radical anti-institutionalism. The stuff that Grover Norquist cared about was shrinking the size of the federal government. You don’t really hear Trump talking about that.

Do you think that these appeals will become more blatant now that Trump has demonstrated their appeal?

My father-in-law escaped Nazi Germany in 1939. My wife pointed out to him that if Trump was a decent family man who was able to discipline himself and was able to execute a smart campaign strategy that was designed by a sophisticated strategist … and my father-in-law cut her off. He said, “He would be a shoo-in.” And that’s the fear. This was the fear that you saw a lot in the decades after the European catastrophe of fascism, the fear that a demagogue who kind of broke the norms of American politics would have it easy, that it really was this sort of scrim of civility that kept the demons at bay.

You see it a lot in the correspondence of Lyndon Johnson when he’s agonizing over going into Vietnam. He would always talk about what happened in 1950 when McCarthy and the rest accused the Democrats of losing China. You saw Richard Nixon saying, “Sure, I’ve got to be tough, and basically do all of these demagogic things, because if I don’t, the real demagogues are going to come along.”

There are these sort of wildfires that can break out unless you have responsible grown-ups in charge of the Republican Party. They always understood that the forces that they were playing with were dangerous. This is why we see someone like George W. Bush going to a mosque the week after 9/11. I think he understood. He blundered into calling it a crusade, but he backed off right away. He wasn’t that smart and didn’t understand this language, but he was very careful not to turn this into a crusade against Muslims, because he knew if it did, we’d be seeing what we’re seeing now. As Sam Rayburn said about politics, anyone can knock down a barn, it’s building a barn that’s hard.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Mo » 20 Oct 2016, 14:38

Interesting analysis on how the parties may evolve to represent more European type splits between beneficiaries of globalism vs. the losers of globalism as culture war fights fade.
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Jennifer » 20 Oct 2016, 14:40

Mo wrote:Interesting analysis on how the parties may evolve to represent more European type splits between beneficiaries of globalism vs. the losers of globalism as culture war fights fade.
I got a login page when I clicked the link.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Mo » 20 Oct 2016, 14:48

Use this
his voice is so soothing, but why do conspiracy nuts always sound like Batman and Robin solving one of Riddler's puzzles out loud? - fod

no one ever yells worldstar when a pet gets fucked up - dhex

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