I am concerned about that, but still find it hard to believe, for the demographic reasons I've mentioned before: Romney got a higher percentage of white voters than Reagan did back in the day, which would've spelled victory in the 80s but wasn't enough in 2012. And Romney's strategy was "focus on winning white voters whilst ignoring all others," compared to Trump's "focus on winning white voters whilst actively insulting and/or threatening all others." And for the 2016 election, the percentage of white voters relative to the rest will be about three percent lower than it was in 2012.Aresen wrote:You are assuming that Trump is going to be a catastrophe for the GOP.Jennifer wrote:FUCKLEDUCKS AND GODDAMMIT. Trending on Facebook this afternoon is the story that RNC chairman Reince Preibus is thinking of "penalizing" GOP members who refuse to endorse Trump this election. Which bodes very, very ill indeed for any notion that the Republicans will learn anything from this Trump debacle.
The polling numbers do not suggest that. The latest numbers are showing a gap of no more than 5% in the popular vote (a few are even showing him ahead).
This assumes that there is no preference-hiding among Trump supporters.
The 'debacle' may be that he gets elected.
A night or two before the 2012 election, I made a prediction on Facebook which turned out to be true (though I'm not claiming psychic powers; I figured my prediction was pretty obvious): something to the effect of "Obama will win, but by a smaller margin than in 2008. Some states that went for Obama in '08 will go for Romney tomorrow, but no states that went for McCain in '08 will go for Obama."
Looking just at the states Obama won in 2012 (not 2008) ... I find it difficult to believe any will go for Trump this time.