Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

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Warren
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Warren » 21 Apr 2018, 16:51

Mo wrote:
21 Apr 2018, 15:58
Left to die != dead.
No? Well even so. I don't think "The Republican Party left you to die" is going to as easy a sell. Not to mention 300,000 is like 1.5% the population of FL.
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thoreau
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by thoreau » 21 Apr 2018, 17:01

1.5% in a swing state matters a lot.
D.A. Ridgely wrote:Trump has a sui generis set of personality flaws relative to whatever's left of what counts as mainstream Republicanism. He's the drunkard Uncle you are forced to leave the kids with, the one who won't molest them but will let them eat pure sugar and watch TV all night while he hides himself in another room to drink and masturbate to porn. The kids will all love him until their fatigue and sugar crash turns them into sick hellions, but you'll replace him as soon as you safely can.
I bow to you, good sir.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
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Shem
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Shem » 21 Apr 2018, 22:48

Warren wrote:
21 Apr 2018, 15:28
I'm talking about everyone that got a bonus check from their employer last year. House GOP leaders are making the midterms all about the tax law and it's not a challenge to sell.
If it's not a challenge to sell, then why do only 27% of voters approve of it, while 36% disapprove? People have gotten that "bonus" for months now; why is it exactly as popular now as it was when it passed?
Warren wrote:
21 Apr 2018, 16:51
Mo wrote:
21 Apr 2018, 15:58
Left to die != dead.
No? Well even so. I don't think "The Republican Party left you to die" is going to as easy a sell. Not to mention 300,000 is like 1.5% the population of FL.
You don't have to sell it; they already believe it. 11% of Puerto Rico still doesn't have power, and hasn't had it since the hurricane. They know exactly why they didn't get the support of a place like Houston.

As for the importance of 300,000 people, Donald Trump won Florida by 120,000 votes. 300,000 voters who hate him will put Florida out of his reach in 2020. If that can be extended to the GOP as a whole, it'll turn the state blue for years to come.
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Aresen
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Aresen » 21 Apr 2018, 23:47

My reasons for thinking Trump will do long-term damage to the GOP:

1) I do not think Trump will be able to deliver on MAGA in terms that his supporters saw it. There will be no surge of high paying, low skill jobs for them. (In fact, the tariffs that Trump proposes may make their employment situation worse.) There may be fewer immigrants, but he will not be able to bring back the 1960s when SWMs were on top and unquestioned in their supremacy. Gay rights are here to stay. Other countries, notably China and India, will continue to rise to challenge US Hegemony. If Trump cannot 'deliver' to his core, they are going to look for another messiah, even if he/she is Blue.

2) Despite #1, the populist core of the Trump supporters now know that they can control the GOP. This will drive the GOP small government types away. They probably won't bolt to the Dems, but they will sit on their hands and their wallets until the populists are contained. The populists will throw up candidates at all levels that will be unable to build a voting plurality nationally and in many local, state and congressional elections. More Roy Moores and more 'safe' seats lost. (For example, I expect that the Dems will take both Senate seats in AZ in 2018 (assuming McCain goes to the great aircraft carrier in the sky this year.))

3) The Democrats are now motivated as never before. Both because they feel they were 'robbed' in 2016 and because they HATE Trump. They will not have HRC's 'get out the vote' problem. The Democrats will carry the swing states. This will persist for at least the 2018 and 2020 election cycles. (I predict that Democrats will 'run against Trump' at least in the primaries from now to 2024.) Then the Blues will have the incumbency advantage.

I've ignored the 'demographic shift' and the strong possibility that the Pennsylvania gerrymandering case might become a precedent for other, similar cases in other states. In PA alone, the State Supreme Court decision is going to cost the GOP 3 to 6 seats. If it spreads to other states, they will lose even more. I realize their are Democrat-gerrymandered states as well, but the GOP has benefited more from recent gerrymandering.

Finally, there is the possibility of a economic downturn. The electoral effects of a recession depends on when it takes place. The economy could continue to expand right through 2020, which would mitigate the damage to the GOP, especially if it occurs after Jan 20, 2021 and they can blame it on the Democrats. (Doesn't matter if it happens on the day after the new POTUS takes office, if a Democrat is in the Oval Office, he/she will wear it.) If the downturn happens before Trump leaves office, he and the GOP will wear it.
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Shem
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Shem » 23 Apr 2018, 10:26

"VOTE SHEMOCRACY! You will only have to do it once!" -Loyalty Officer Aresen

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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 23 Apr 2018, 14:02

If the Florida felon disenfranchisement law (permanent and affects 1.4 million) ends up being gutted or becomes ministerial, as looks possible, Florida would become navy blue.

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Eric the .5b
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Eric the .5b » 23 Apr 2018, 15:53

Fin Fang Foom wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 14:02
If the Florida felon disenfranchisement law (permanent and affects 1.4 million) ends up being gutted or becomes ministerial, as looks possible, Florida would become navy blue.
(emphasis added)

GFC. I knew the numbers were horrific, but Florida doesn't even have 21 million people.
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Shem
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Shem » 23 Apr 2018, 16:15

Fin Fang Foom wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 14:02
becomes ministerial
What does this mean?
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Aresen
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Aresen » 23 Apr 2018, 16:25

Shem wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 16:15
Fin Fang Foom wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 14:02
becomes ministerial
What does this mean?
The GOP won't have a prayer.
If Trump supporters wanted a tough guy, why did they elect such a whiny bitch? - Mo

Those who know history are doomed to deja vu. - the innominate one

Never bring a knife to a joke fight" - dhex

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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 23 Apr 2018, 16:35

Shem wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 16:15
Fin Fang Foom wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 14:02
becomes ministerial
What does this mean?
I meant the restoration becomes ministerial.

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Shem
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Shem » 23 Apr 2018, 16:44

Fin Fang Foom wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 16:35
Shem wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 16:15
Fin Fang Foom wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 14:02
becomes ministerial
What does this mean?
I meant the restoration becomes ministerial.
I got that, I just don't know what ministerial means in this context, and Google doesn't help.
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Andrew » 23 Apr 2018, 16:55

Shem wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 16:44
Fin Fang Foom wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 16:35
Shem wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 16:15
Fin Fang Foom wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 14:02
becomes ministerial
What does this mean?
I meant the restoration becomes ministerial.
I got that, I just don't know what ministerial means in this context, and Google doesn't help.
I think he means a routine form filing rather than begging before a committee.
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Fin Fang Foom
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Fin Fang Foom » 23 Apr 2018, 17:04

Shem wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 16:44
Fin Fang Foom wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 16:35
Shem wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 16:15
Fin Fang Foom wrote:
23 Apr 2018, 14:02
becomes ministerial
What does this mean?
I meant the restoration becomes ministerial.
I got that, I just don't know what ministerial means in this context, and Google doesn't help.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ministerial

"b : relating to or being an act done after ascertaining the existence of a specified state of facts in obedience to a legal order without exercise of personal judgment or discretion"

Currently you have to literally beg the governor:

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/20 ... -clemency/

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Shem
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Shem » 23 Apr 2018, 17:16

Aha, understood, thank you.
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Jennifer
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Jennifer » 26 Apr 2018, 16:30

The cover story from last week's Economist was about the effects Trump is having on the GOP; short version is, it's not good. I'll post the article here in full, for benefit of non-subscribers:

https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/ ... nd-one-man
ALL presidents, Republican and Democrat, seek to remake their party in their own image. Donald Trump has been more successful than most. From the start, the voters he mesmerised in the campaign embraced him more fervently than congressional Republicans were ready to admit. After 15 months in power, as our briefing explains, he has taken ownership of their party. It is an extraordinary achievement from a man who had never lived in Washington, DC, who never held public office, who boasted of groping women and who, as recently as 2014, was a donor to the hated Democrats.

The organising principle of Mr Trump’s Republican Party is loyalty. Not, as with the best presidents, loyalty to an ideal, a vision or a legislative programme, but to just one man—Donald J. Trump—and to the prejudice and rage which consume the voter base that, on occasion, even he struggles to control. In America that is unprecedented and it is dangerous.

Already, some of our Republican readers will be rolling their eyes. They will say that our criticism reveals more about us and our supposed elitism than it does about Mr Trump. But we are not talking here about the policies of Mr Trump’s administration, a few of which we support, many of which we do not and all of which should be debated on their merits. The bigger, more urgent concern is Mr Trump’s temperament and style of government. Submissive loyalty to one man and the rage he both feeds off and incites is a threat to the shining democracy that the world has often taken as its example.

Not what, but how
Mr Trump’s takeover has its roots in the take-no-prisoners tribalism that gripped American politics long before he became president. And in the past the Oval Office has occasionally belonged to narcissists some of whom lied, seduced, bullied or undermined presidential norms. But none has behaved quite as blatantly as Mr Trump.

At the heart of his system of power is his contempt for the truth. In a memoir published this week (see Lexington) James Comey, whom Mr Trump fired as director of the FBI, laments “the lying about all things, large and small, in service to some code of loyalty that put the organisation above morality and above the truth”. Mr Trump does not—perhaps cannot—distinguish between facts and falsehoods. As a businessman and on the campaign he behaved as if the truth was whatever he could get away with. And, as president, Mr Trump surely believes that his power means he can get away with a great deal.

When power dominates truth, criticism becomes betrayal. Critics cannot appeal to neutral facts and remain loyal, because facts are not neutral. As Hannah Arendt wrote of the 1920s and 1930s, any statement of fact becomes a question of motive. Thus, when H.R. McMaster, a former national security adviser, said (uncontroversially) that Russia had interfered in the election campaign, Mr Trump heard his words as unforgivably hostile. Soon after, he was sacked.

The cult of loyalty to Mr Trump and his base affects government in three ways. First, policymaking suffers as, instead of a coherent programme, America undergoes government by impulse—anger, nativism, mercantilism—beyond the reach of empirical argument. Mr Trump’s first year has included accomplishments: the passage of a big tax cut, a regulatory rollback and the appointment of conservative judges. But most of his policymaking is marked by chaos rather than purpose. He was against the Trans-Pacific trade deal, then for it, then against it again; for gun control, then for arming teachers instead.

Second, the conventions that buttress the constitution’s limits on the president have fallen victim to Mr Trump’s careless selfishness. David Frum, once a speechwriter for George W. Bush, lists some he has broken (and how long they have been observed): a refusal to disclose his tax return (since Gerald Ford), ignoring conflict-of-interest rules (Richard Nixon), running a business for profit (Lyndon Johnson), appointing relatives to senior posts in the administration (John F. Kennedy) and family enrichment by patronage (Ulysses S. Grant).

And third, Mr Trump paints those who stand in his way not as opponents, but as wicked or corrupt or traitors. Mr Trump and his base divide Republicans into good people who support him and bad people who do not—one reason why a record 40 congressional Republicans, including the House Speaker, Paul Ryan, will not seek re-election. The media that are for him are zealous loyalists; those that are not are branded enemies of the people. He has cast judicial investigations by Robert Mueller into his commercial and political links with Russia as a “deep-state” conspiracy. Mr Trump is reportedly toying with firing Mr Mueller or his boss in the Department of Justice. Yet, if a president cannot be investigated without it being counted as treason then, like a king, he is above the law.

The best rebuke to Mr Trump’s solipsism would be Republican defeat at the ballot box, starting with November’s mid-term elections. That may yet come to pass. But Mr Trump’s Republican base, stirred up by his loyal media, shows no sign of going soft. Polls suggest that its members overwhelmingly believe the president over Mr Comey. For them, criticism from the establishment is proof he must be doing something right.

Look up, look forwards and look in
But responsibility also falls to Republicans who know that Mr Trump is bad for America and the world. They feel pinned down, because they cannot win elections without Mr Trump’s base but, equally, they cannot begin to attempt to prise Mr Trump and his base apart without being branded traitors.

Such Republicans need to reflect on how speaking up will bear on their legacy. Mindful of their party’s future, they should remember that America’s growing racial diversity means that nativism will eventually lead to the electoral wilderness. And, for the sake of their country, they need to bring in a bill to protect Mr Mueller’s investigation from sabotage. If loyalty to Mr Trump grants him impunity, who knows where he will venture? Speaking to the Constitutional Convention in 1787 George Mason put it best: “Shall that man be above [justice], who can commit the most extensive injustice?”
"Myself, despite what they say about libertarians, I think we're actually allowed to pursue options beyond futility or sucking the dicks of the powerful." -- Eric the .5b

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Jennifer
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by Jennifer » 07 Jul 2018, 17:29

Like George Will before him, Max Boot has left the GOP and called for Democrats to win this November.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... -take-over
Conservative columnist Max Boot favors a Democratic Congress come November because the GOP has become a "white-nationalist party."

"You used to belong to a conservative party with a white-nationalist fringe," he wrote in the Washington Post Wednesday. "Now it’s a white-nationalist party with a conservative fringe."

Boot's piece was titled, "I left the Republican Party. Now I want Democrats to take over." He said he re-registered as an independent the day after President Trump's election, and he cited Trump's zero-tolerance border policy, which led to the separation of immigrant children from their parents, as a prime example of why he's had enough with the Republican Party.

"While two-thirds of Americans disapproved of this state-sanctioned child abuse, forcing the president to back down, a majority of Republicans approved. If Trump announced he were going to spit-roast immigrant kids and eat them on national TV (apologies to Jonathan Swift), most Republicans probably would approve of that, too."

Rather than taking a "Never Trump" stance like other Republicans, Boot said he plans to join with other conservatives, including Washington Post columnist George F. Will and root for Democratic candidates in both houses this November.

"Like postwar Germany and Japan, the Republican Party must be destroyed before it can be rebuilt," he wrote.
Better late than never, I suppose, but -- dude, the Republican Party has been rotting like this for years. The support for racist "papers, please" policies didn't clue you in to something noxious in the GOP? The 2012 election season focus on "pregnant rape victims should be required by the state to carry their rapists' offspring to term" didn't set off any alarm bells? The constant freakouts over gay marriage? Playing footsie with the Birthers?
"Myself, despite what they say about libertarians, I think we're actually allowed to pursue options beyond futility or sucking the dicks of the powerful." -- Eric the .5b

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thoreau
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Re: Whither the GOP? (post-Trump edition)

Post by thoreau » 07 Jul 2018, 21:33

Once the regime is overthrown there will be plenty of time to purge those who joined the opposition too late. For now, though, we spare them. To use as cannon fodder.
"ike Wile E. Coyote salivating over a "4000 Ways To Prepare Roadrunner" cookbook without watching his surroundings, the Road Runner of Societal Inertia snuck up on them both and beepbeeped them off the mesa."
--Shem

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